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Author Topic: Paranormal 25 - Game over! Town victory!  (Read 81061 times)

doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #570 on: February 21, 2017, 09:26:14 am »

The doll-4maskwolf Initiative for solving Paranormal 25, 5th amendment
Lynch Leafsnail D3.
Tiruin boops doll D3.
TheBiggerFish lowers alert N3.
Deus Asmoth mindscans TheBiggerFish N3.
TheDarkStar gives the shield to Tiruin and the assassination bot to Tiruin N3 - this protects her from scum Assassination bots.
N4 Tiruin gives the shield to hector13 and either uses the bot or gives it to hector13.

If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA, 4mask, and a booped doll. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF if he isn't clear, and no-lynch until the shield breaks (lynch doll) or doll dies (lynch webadict).
If doll is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA and 4mask. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF (if TBF is not clear) or lynch webadict (if TBF is clear).
If Deus Asmoth is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, a booped doll, webadict, TBF and 4mask. Lynch 4mask and bot-kill TBF, then proceed to no-lynch until scum are forced out as per the TDS scenario.
If TBF is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, webadict,  a booped doll, DA, and 4mask. Lynch DA and botkill 4mask, then proceed according to TDS scenario.
If something unexpected happens, figure it out at that time I guess.
If TDS fails to hand over the tech, he's scum and get's lynched first, then DA, then non-clears until the doll-webadict stall endgame. If hector's shield breaks or a shieldless hector dies, lynch doll.
If hector13 ever dies to a scumkill, lynch doll.

At the discretion of a clear, webadict and 4maskwolf can be swapped around in this plan.
This call can be made at virtually any time.

Scum mind-control rays can be used to make guards ram into War Vets and convect the kill down to doll (while still giving the scum vote control over the guard).
I'm not sure what options there are which prevent this without having all War Vets go unalert (which increases a few other risks).

I strongly expect both 4maskwolf and webadict to be town (and I think that I'm town), so I'm not really worried about the final five and am happy either way.
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Persus13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #571 on: February 21, 2017, 09:29:50 am »

4maskwolf
Strictly speaking, we could have nine exterminators currently in the game.
Any given player could be a survivor or lone dopp or spore spreader or any other third party.
No we couldn't. There are two dopps left. Also that's not how the setup works, plus lack of nightkills means you need to stop being paranoid about third parties

Also its worth pointing out your plan assumes Leafsnail is not a dopp, since if he does flip dopp, we should immediately kill DA instead.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #572 on: February 21, 2017, 09:34:47 am »

Deus Asmoth is lynched first in any of the scenarios where he doesn't die during the night, so it's largely irrelevant that he's very likely scum if Leafsnail is also.

You are correct, we could have two dopps and seven scum-siding lone dopps instead.
I'm not seriously considering these scenarios.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #573 on: February 21, 2017, 09:37:46 am »

I'm going for 4-16 hours.
Please don't shorten until hector, persus and Tiruin have agreed to the plan.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #574 on: February 21, 2017, 09:44:06 am »

Also its worth pointing out your plan assumes Leafsnail is not a dopp, since if he does flip dopp, we should immediately kill DA instead.
Well you're not wrong, but that's the easy way of resolving things.  These plans are for if we have to go about things the hard way.

Mephansteras

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #575 on: February 21, 2017, 11:08:33 am »

The Whiteboard
4maskwolf: Persus13
Deus Asmoth: hector13, TheDarkStar
doll: Leafsnail
hector13: Deus Asmoth
Leafsnail: 4maskwolf, doll, TheBiggerFish, webadict



Day ends ~5pm Pacific Wednesday. There are 2 votes to Extend the day to ~5pm Pacific Thursday. Three votes needed to Extend.



Meph
1) If player A trades a combat shield to player B during Night X, and player A is targeted for a kill, does the shield break, and is player B told the trade was successful?
2) As above, but player B is killed instead.

Mephansteras: Does a person who get tech traded to them get informed of what tech they receive in the middle of the night?  I would presume so, if it can be used the night it is passed.  Also, can tech trades be agreed upon in advance to occur during the night phase, since Tiruin has internet difficulties a lot and may not be around enough in the night phase to agree to a handoff with TDS.

Tech trades happen at the very start of the night before any other actions take effect (so that the person receiving them can use them properly). And, yes, it can be arranged via PM with me beforehand.

Actually, all Night Actions can be arranged with me beforehand via PM if the player won't be around during the night to send them to me.
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TheBiggerFish

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #576 on: February 21, 2017, 11:35:23 am »

Extend for now then.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #577 on: February 21, 2017, 01:19:10 pm »

Well, that means that the tech trading parts of the plan are spot on.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #578 on: February 21, 2017, 01:41:09 pm »

doll's plan fails if the dopps have access to any of the lylo breaking tools - assassin bot, mind control, body double or enchanter. If you look here:
Quote
If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA, 4mask, and a booped doll. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF if he isn't clear, and no-lynch until the shield breaks (lynch doll) or doll dies (lynch webadict).
After lynching DA and botkilling 4mask you're potentially left with 2 scum out of 5 players - a risk which, as far as I can tell, isn't remotely necessary. It's also suspicious to me that this gives scum-doll specifically an opening to win (with either TBF or webadict).

I will propose a different strategy that does not have these weaknesses. I will start with the assumption that Tiruin is town, and that therefore Persus is not a dopp.

Let's first look at the scenario where DA is scum. In this case you can immediately assassin bot me or lynch me the next day - that's fine, since I would no longer be clear in any way and therefore a valid suspect. The remaining doppelganger would be insanely screwed in this scenario so it's wouldn't a big deal to me whether I lived or died. Being booped by Tiruin is basically a death sentence, making a kill would clear whoever Tiruin booped, not making kills would allow Tiruin to build more bots and the town to just lynch the remaining suspects one by one. This is partly why it's a good idea not to lynch a Survive result today - hitting a dopp today would be super good, and leave the dopps with no way to win pretty much regardless of third parties and their roles.

So let's move on to the scenario where DA was town. After the night we'll see whether TDS was bullshitting or not. If he was, we can lynch him and the final dopp is left in a super awful position as detailed above, with essentially no way of winning. So we should move on to the scenario where he does make the tech trade (which implicitly clears hector).

I would be cleared of being a dopp by DA's death, and we'd have 4 remaining suspects - 4mask, webadict, doll and TBF. So all we'd have to do is get rid of those 4 people to get rid of all the doppelgangers. We could do this as follows, for example (4mask, TBF and webadict can be swapped around to taste):

Night 3: doll kills himself against a PWV (has the added bonus of potentially exposing a false PWV claim). If he refused he could be lynched instead. Doing this means we get more kills against our suspects and less shots against our confirmed players from scum.
Day 4: Assuming a scumkill, 7 players are still alive with 2 mafia. That's a lylo-breaker proof/survivor proof majority. Lynch TBF
Night 4: assassinate 4mask. Note that by this point there'd have to be at least one doppelganger dead, since we killed 3 of the 4 suspects.
Day 5: Assuming a scumkill, there would be 4 players alive with 1 (known) scum. This majority is resistant to assassin bots, enchanter, body double and mind control ray (it can only force a No Lynch for the day before the mafia member gets lynched on the next). Lynch webadict

I'd also note that this plan is more resilient to a Survivor. Here the Survivor could vote with scum on day 5 (and again on day 6 after a no lynch), but it would be objectively wrong for them to do so. Because if they lynch the confirmed dopp the game ends immediately and they are guaranteed to win, while if they vote with the scum the game will continue and there's a possibility that the doppelganger will dick them over with a nightkill. Wheras in doll's plan if eg Persus is a survivor it would be safer for him to vote with the two dopps rather than vote against one of them and risk incurring the other's wrath.

Note that I haven't even gotten into how we could use guards and Tiruin's bots yet - those things would make this strategy even more safe, and give us extra chances to win "for free". If we trust Tiruin I think it's possible we should let her select one of the four suspects to boop without telling us today so that the scum has an extra chance to screw up and get caught.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #579 on: February 21, 2017, 02:11:02 pm »

Quote
If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA, 4mask, and a booped doll. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF if he isn't clear, and no-lynch until the shield breaks (lynch doll) or doll dies (lynch webadict).
After lynching DA and botkilling 4mask you're potentially left with 2 scum out of 5 players - a risk which, as far as I can tell, isn't remotely necessary. It's also suspicious to me that this gives scum-doll specifically an opening to win (with either TBF or webadict).
doll/TBF: After DA is lynched, at the start of that night there are seven players and TBF is confirmed scum. An outed TBF should be killed instead of 4mask, yes. This leaves doll/TBF with doll alone with 3 clears and two war vets.
doll/webadict (or 4mask): After DA is lynched, TBF is a clear war vet - even if 4mask (the wrong unclear war vet) is bot-killed, the doll-webadict team is swinging it's night action at three confirmed town channeling kills onto a shielded player and one clear war vet, and because every other player is clear the doll-webadict team can take lynches straight away.

I will propose a different strategy that does not have these weaknesses. I will start with the assumption that Tiruin is town, and that therefore Persus is not a dopp.

Let's first look at the scenario where DA is scum. In this case you can immediately assassin bot me or lynch me the next day - that's fine, since I would no longer be clear in any way and therefore a valid suspect. The remaining doppelganger would be insanely screwed in this scenario so it's wouldn't a big deal to me whether I lived or died. Being booped by Tiruin is basically a death sentence, making a kill would clear whoever Tiruin booped, not making kills would allow Tiruin to build more bots and the town to just lynch the remaining suspects one by one. This is partly why it's a good idea not to lynch a Survive result today - hitting a dopp today would be super good, and leave the dopps with no way to win pretty much regardless of third parties and their roles.

So let's move on to the scenario where DA was town. After the night we'll see whether TDS was bullshitting or not. If he was, we can lynch him and the final dopp is left in a super awful position as detailed above, with essentially no way of winning. So we should move on to the scenario where he does make the tech trade (which implicitly clears hector).

I would be cleared of being a dopp by DA's death, and we'd have 4 remaining suspects - 4mask, webadict, doll and TBF. So all we'd have to do is get rid of those 4 people to get rid of all the doppelgangers. We could do this as follows, for example (4mask, TBF and webadict can be swapped around to taste):

Night 3: doll kills himself against a PWV (has the added bonus of potentially exposing a false PWV claim). If he refused he could be lynched instead. Doing this means we get more kills against our suspects and less shots against our confirmed players from scum.
Day 4: Assuming a scumkill, 7 players are still alive with 2 mafia. That's a lylo-breaker proof/survivor proof majority. Lynch TBF
Night 4: assassinate 4mask. Note that by this point there'd have to be at least one doppelganger dead, since we killed 3 of the 4 suspects.
Day 5: Assuming a scumkill, there would be 4 players alive with 1 (known) scum. This majority is resistant to assassin bots, enchanter, body double and mind control ray (it can only force a No Lynch for the day before the mafia member gets lynched on the next). Lynch webadict

I'd also note that this plan is more resilient to a Survivor. Here the Survivor could vote with scum on day 5 (and again on day 6 after a no lynch), but it would be objectively wrong for them to do so. Because if they lynch the confirmed dopp the game ends immediately and they are guaranteed to win, while if they vote with the scum the game will continue and there's a possibility that the doppelganger will dick them over with a nightkill. Wheras in doll's plan if eg Persus is a survivor it would be safer for him to vote with the two dopps rather than vote against one of them and risk incurring the other's wrath.

Note that I haven't even gotten into how we could use guards and Tiruin's bots yet - those things would make this strategy even more safe, and give us extra chances to win "for free". If we trust Tiruin I think it's possible we should let her select one of the four suspects to boop without telling us today so that the scum has an extra chance to screw up and get caught.
I haven't got time to go over this right now, so I'll do it in twelve hours if there's even the ghost of a point.
I don't think there will be.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #580 on: February 21, 2017, 02:25:21 pm »

The doll-4maskwolf Initiative for solving Paranormal 25, 6th amendment
Lynch Leafsnail D3.
Tiruin boops doll D3.
TheBiggerFish lowers alert N3.
Deus Asmoth mindscans TheBiggerFish N3.
TheDarkStar gives the shield to Tiruin and the assassination bot to Tiruin N3 - this protects her from scum Assassination bots.
N4 Tiruin gives the shield to hector13 and either uses the bot or gives it to hector13.

If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA, 4mask, and a booped doll. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask (TBF clear) or TBF (TBF scum). Lynch confirmed scum (doll-webadict) or boop webadict then no-lynch until the shield breaks (lynch doll, or lynch confirmed scum if doll died) or doll (if still alive) dies (lynch confirmed scum).
If doll is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA and 4mask. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF (if TBF is not clear) or lynch webadict (if TBF is clear).
If Deus Asmoth is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, a booped doll, webadict, TBF and 4mask. Lynch 4mask and bot-kill TBF, then proceed to no-lynch until scum are forced out as per the TDS scenario.
If TBF is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, webadict,  a booped doll, DA, and 4mask. Lynch DA and botkill 4mask, then proceed according to TDS scenario.
If something unexpected happens, figure it out at that time I guess.
If TDS fails to hand over the tech, he's scum and get's lynched first, then DA, then non-clears until the doll-webadict stall endgame. If hector's shield breaks or a shieldless hector dies, lynch doll.
If hector13 ever dies to a scumkill, lynch doll.

At the discretion of a clear, webadict and 4maskwolf can be swapped around in this plan.
This call can be made at virtually any time.
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #581 on: February 21, 2017, 02:28:14 pm »

Stop replying to Leafsnail. He's scum. There's no point.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #582 on: February 21, 2017, 02:52:19 pm »

I mean you can kindof put together contingencies using roles under your plan (which can be broken up by stuff like Mind Control Ray, as you pointed out). But at the end of the day you're still making a terrible, unjustifiable lynch today so it has less room for error than my plan, which doesn't need fancy Guard tricks that can get disrupted by roleblocks and the like.

Again: if you think I'm scum, Deus Asmoth is also scum, so you should lynch him instead.
Stop replying to Leafsnail. He's scum. There's no point.
You have never provided any reasoning for this. I don't expect you to start thinking at any point but I hope that other players will.
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #583 on: February 21, 2017, 03:08:16 pm »

You have continuously tried to make the town turn on each other.

I have already said this: I am done with you. Anything you say is WIFOM. Considering every potential possibility is stupid.

You have tried to delay lynches.

You have tried to push lynches on others to delay ones on yourself.

Like I said, I am done.
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hector13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #584 on: February 21, 2017, 04:21:36 pm »

What else is he s'posed to do? Just roll over and accept it? You play the game to win, man, so I don't think any of those things make him scum.

Anyway, not best pleased with the plan. Of the unconfirmed players, I have the strongest town-read on 4mask, and the weakest on doll, thus I'm not really onboard with 4mask being botkilled at any point.

If Leafsnail is scum, DA is scum. If Leafsnail is not scum, why are we lynching him? The survivor at this point is a non-threat, best-case is he's VT, worst-case, scum/TP with holoform modulator.

a) If we lynch DA: he flips scum, Leafsnail is scum. Game over, probably.

b) he flips town, Leafsnail is not scum - excepting holoform modulator - botkill TBF as a result of the kill result from DA's scan.

Tiruin, hector, TDS, 4mask, webadict, doll, Persus and Leafsnail remain.

Tiruin should probably privately decide who of the unconfirmed players she boops - 4mask, webadict, doll - so as to avoid scum being clued in, allowing them to choose the non-booped player to perform the NK.

TDS trades shield to Tiruin, thus protecting her from scum assassin bots, Persus protects Tiruin for all the NKs, hector protect Persus, doll should probably protect hector, the two remaining war vets should probably be on alert.

Leafsnail is VT or survivor, TDS is essentially VT and his death will probably clear hector, and hector's death will at least confirm TDS is truthing, meaning the likely NK is doll, especially if he's protecting hector.

If nobody flips scum, scum are probably 4mask and webadict.
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