Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Icefire2314]

I know this is slightly old news. Brexit, that is, but it's coming back up in the media I feel.

Just recently I read an article about Theresa May confirming the intent of Brexit, not officially invoking article 50 but that she confirmed it would be happening relatively soon (likely the first quarter of 2017 according to the Wikipedia Article.

So my question is, what are your thoughts on the (proposed) second Scottish referendum?

At the time of Brexit, Northern Ireland and voted to remain by a decent margin (55.8 to 44.2), and in Scotland, a massive margin (Referendum Data) of 62% to 38%. According the data I linked, not a single county in Scotland voted to leave and obviously, a large majority didn't either.

The first Scottish independence referendum had "remain" win by a margin of roughly 10%, 55.3% to 44.7%. A second Scottish independence referendum has been proposed more than a few times (even before Brexit, immediately after the failure of the first) so I wonder, how will the results change the second time around (should it happen)?

My thoughts are that should the referendum get pushed after the invocation of Article 50 and as the deadline to leave the EU approaches, Scotland will be highly likely to vote to leave by some margin, I can't say for how wide of a margin however. I think though, that if the referendum comes post-Brexit, then the referendum still has a fair chance of winning but much lower than the previous scenario (people's fears over Brexit possibly assuaged in the wake of leaving).

I'm generally curious as to what you guys think. (I'm kind of partial to Irish unity and Scottish nationalism but I'm try to be unbiased here). Thoughts?

EDIT:
I would also like to point out the raw numbers of the first Scottish referendum, even though it was roughly 10% that voted to remain vs. leave the UK, the numbers necessary to leave amounted to 1.8 million, the number who voted the leave was 1.61 million. Whereas with the EU referendum, the numbers to remain were about 1.6 million to 1.0 million. That said, the turnout for the UK referendum was about 85% vs the turnout for the EU referendum at about 67%.

[Loud Whispers]

So my question is, what are your thoughts on the (proposed) second Scottish referendum?

It's a maybe

At the time of Brexit, Northern Ireland and voted to remain by a decent margin (55.8 to 44.2), and in Scotland, a massive margin (Referendum Data) of 62% to 38%. According the data I linked, not a single county in Scotland voted to leave and obviously, a large majority didn't either.

If we run on the assumption that remaining corresponds with leaving

The first Scottish independence referendum had "remain" win by a margin of roughly 10%, 55.3% to 44.7%. A second Scottish independence referendum has been proposed more than a few times (even before Brexit, immediately after the failure of the first) so I wonder, how will the results change the second time around (should it happen)?

For starters, Cameron is no longer in charge. This is a great boon to remain

My thoughts are that should the referendum get pushed after the invocation of Article 50 and as the deadline to leave the EU approaches, Scotland will be highly likely to vote to leave by some margin, I can't say for how wide of a margin however. I think though, that if the referendum comes post-Brexit, then the referendum still has a fair chance of winning but much lower than the previous scenario (people's fears over Brexit possibly assuaged in the wake of leaving).

The YouGov poll also reveals that only 31 per cent of Scots want the Scottish Government to campaign for independence in the next two years. A further 56 per cent think it should not, while the rest do not know.
Respondents were asked about whether they think it would be “realistically possible” for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves, regardless of their support for such a move.
Only 22 per cent said they thought this would be “probably possible”, with 62 per cent saying “probably not possible” and 16 per cent said they did not know.
YouGov polled 1,134 people from 24-29 November.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-independence-support-for-second-referendum-plummets-a7447196.html

Currently the likelihood is relatively minimal, it is a lot easier to convince people to leave a 20 year old union with a large economy than leaving a 300 year old union with one armed forces, one economy, one currency, one foreign policy and a long list of pretty much everything that makes up the British state, cos it's the British state

I'm generally curious as to what you guys think. (I'm kind of partial to Irish unity and Scottish nationalism but I'm try to be unbiased here). Thoughts?

I don't think the stress test for the British nation state will be immediately after the invocation of article 50, I think it will be in the first 8 years of immediate independence from the EU in which the ruling party will have to prove the UK still offers the best model for the Scottish people versus the model under the EU. Particularly in questions such as the NHS or quelling southern taxpayers over how much sterling is spent north, convincing them that the extra money spent is worth it. I think this will be the timing because in the immediate aftermath of the actual independence process (UK<->EU), everyone will be too deeply focused on seeing how this unprecedented situation plays out to do anything. Once things have settled down and the future is clearer, that is when the SNP or a successor party can be most able to campaign a second time, with the memory of an alternative model still fresh in the public consciousness, without the anxiety of uncertainty looming too much overhead

[Sheb]

Can't we discuss this in the Brexit thread? Anyway, PTW.

[Icefire2314]

Can't we discuss this in the Brexit thread? Anyway, PTW.

Yeah this was my bad, I didn't see the Brexit thread until after I posted this.