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Author Topic: Weather thread? Weather thread.  (Read 9417 times)

RedKing

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #30 on: October 05, 2016, 03:18:43 pm »

Huh. Kneel says the demon light, I guess. Kinda' wondered for a while if it's going to hit a point where islanders just say to sky hell with this shit and leave. Or sky hell says to hell with them and there stops being islanders to consider, anyway.

Then again, I vaguely remember something about relatively cheap/improved geodesic domes starting to propagate a bit, a few years back, able to stand up to some pretty significant winds and whatnot. Maybe they'll just start building differently, at least until the islands functionally sink.
And then even more tourists start mistaking all Caribbean island for Epcot.

Yeah, island life in general is getting dicier around the world. It would only take a few feet of sea level rise to make the Outer Banks largely disappear.
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Itnetlolor

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #31 on: October 05, 2016, 05:01:34 pm »

Well, isn't this ‼fun‼. My town's RIGHT in the crosshairs of this thing. After it hits my town directly, it finally fizzles out, according to projections.

Thanks, Earth.

EDIT:
In some of my free time, I decided to screw around with PowderToy for a bit, and render some models of what the conditions are gonna be like during the storm, relative to how the property is setup, and based on the information I've gathered so far.

I oddly have faith that despite how horrible the conditions might get, I'll still have house to return to that's sufficiently intact. As it would turn out, a house built better to-code for the location is our neighboring house closer to the beach than us (and a little taller and built higher than ours as well), and doing an aerodynamic check on it, it looks like for a majority of the storm, that house is gonna take a majority of the beatings from the wind for us, and likely also last; but what's interesting is that a dome of relatively lower pressure would encase the area a bit (Plus, I think as the winds are more powerful, the more the "dome of protection" covers; the house is effectively a windshield, and our properties are like a huge car going pretty fast speeds with the top down), sorta keeping most of the sideways rain from hitting the house, and especially our back yard, and preserving the house from nastier winds (provided the wind direction remains consistent as it dies down by then). Add a retaining wall between our properties while at it, along with a beach fence while at it (with some help from vegetation surrounding us), and that should absorb much of the storm surge impacts too, leaving relatively minor flood damage at worst.

I'd be equally surprised, and not as much surprised to see our house standing once the storm passes. It has quite a track record for withstanding some serious storms, and still standing. A bit of (limited desktop) science clears up a few 'miracles' about why it continues to do so.

However, I'll still have to do a model on the shape of the houses (top-down perspective), and how those influence the winds, as well as the opposite winds after the eye passes. As much as the house will still stand, I'm sure the front of the house will still take a fair beating. It'll probably look worse than it actually is once we return home post-storm.

EDIT EDIT:
After doing a top-down simulation and even opposing winds after the eye passes by; I'm still surprisingly optimistic about this. At worst, we'll lose some siding, and a few shingles, and maybe have some wet floors, but that'll just about be it for us. Though I may need to find my car after the winds push it around a bit (tagging along in a different (full-tank) car, on evac). At least it's insured. Let's just hope the house doesn't become a pin-cushion from local debris.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 10:14:29 pm by Itnetlolor »
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TheBiggerFish

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #32 on: October 05, 2016, 07:56:10 pm »

Yikes :o
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Max™

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #33 on: October 05, 2016, 09:14:30 pm »

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BorkBorkGoesTheCode

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #34 on: October 05, 2016, 09:18:07 pm »

Well, isn't this ‼fun‼. My town's RIGHT in the crosshairs of this thing. After it hits my town directly, it finally fizzles out, according to projections.

Thanks, Earth.
LEAVE.
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Max™

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #35 on: October 05, 2016, 09:26:13 pm »

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Greiger

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #36 on: October 05, 2016, 09:34:35 pm »

I think my favorite part is that right after blasting into brevard county(where I assume Itnetlolor is) it decides to go up to Daytona (where I am) to start heading east again before looking like it's turning around to say "What's that you want some more?  Ok I will oblige you" and starts heading back towards Florida again before the prediction runs out of data.

And yes I would very much like to leave.  However mom does not, and I'm not going to just leave her here. (even if I did I would have to steal her car to do it, since we put all of the gas cans into her car since hers is larger and can carry more stuff if we have to go anywhere) The house is at least a sturdy concrete walled structure on high ground.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 09:36:45 pm by Greiger »
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BorkBorkGoesTheCode

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #37 on: October 05, 2016, 09:39:52 pm »

I think my favorite part is that right after blasting into brevard county(where I assume Itnetlolor is) it decides to go up to Daytona (where I am) to start heading east again before looking like it's turning around to say "What's that you want some more?  Ok I will oblige you" and starts heading back towards Florida again before the prediction runs out of data.

And yes I would very much like to leave.  However mom does not, and I'm not going to just leave her here. (even if I did I would have to steal her car to do it, since we put all of the gas cans into her car since hers is larger and can carry more stuff if we have to go anywhere) The house is at least a sturdy concrete walled structure on high ground.
Why does she plan to stay there?
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Greiger

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #38 on: October 05, 2016, 09:55:09 pm »

Worried we'd run out of gas in traffic.   Traffic is already terrible and every gas station in town is out of gas as far as I could see even on tuesday.  There is also the fact that the house is indeed sturdier than average and points out that noone else in the neighborhood is leaving.  We are a few miles inland as well. 3.24 miles according to google maps.

Oh and her work is making her stay at work til 1 PM thursday.  So we'd be leaving at the last second anyway, I doubt that would stop her from leaving early if she wanted to, but I imagine that might be playing at least a small factor.

EDIT: Lots of edits trying to think of other factors that may be contributing to the decision.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 10:07:29 pm by Greiger »
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Itnetlolor

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #39 on: October 05, 2016, 10:05:40 pm »

Seems about right. It seems mandatory evacuation orders have been set for Volusia County Beachside now (my location, actually). So, deadline to get out before bridges are closed is 6PM tomorrow. Of course, I'll be out earlier before traffic decides to clog the exit. Gonna chill out at my brother's a bit further inland for awhile.

At least I have the next few days of work off. Plus, I've bought myself some time with my other job developments for the time being (something way better than my old job), thanks to the weather. So, hurricane board game party it is for the weekend.

EDIT:
Friday update there makes me feel a whole lot more comfy about my situation. Now I definitely know my house will still be here upon return. But of course, the power might be a different issue.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 10:20:50 pm by Itnetlolor »
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Greiger

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #40 on: October 05, 2016, 10:14:18 pm »

Yea you definitely need to get out of there when ya can.  That barrier island is a deathtrap, I used to have an apartment there over by main street.  Even bike week is enough to clog all the traffic to a standstill.  I can't imagine an actual emergency.

I also have a friend who I'm trying to convince to leave too.  even telling him he can stay with us if he needs to, but he hasn't decided yet.  He is definitely in a flood zone, and while he's not on the barrier island he's a lot closer to the beach.

It's a scaling ladder of people telling others to GTFO, the folks in safer places are telling the folks in more dangerous places to GTFO and those people know people in even more hazardous places.   All we need now is someone who lives in a dingy moored in the inter-coastal waterway.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 10:19:25 pm by Greiger »
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Max™

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #41 on: October 05, 2016, 10:35:38 pm »

That's part of why I like sharing the nullschool links with folks so they can look at it and get the general impression that "oh shit, there is probably going to be tons of water hurtling around here in a couple days" from them.

Plus stuff like this, stitched from frames taken at 6 hour intervals:


Note that the colors underneath are temperature at the sea surface and land surface, while the lines are wind vectors at the surface, the longer the line persists and the closer to solid white, the faster the wind, most of them are pretty wispy and short except the big whirligig of "screw you" heading up the coast.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 10:44:01 pm by Max™ »
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RedKing

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #42 on: October 06, 2016, 08:21:41 am »

Looks like we'll just have some breeze and light rain. NC made its Dodge skill check. Again.
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smjjames

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #43 on: October 06, 2016, 08:37:15 am »

And the latest track actually has it staying out to sea all along the Eastern Seaboard. Looks like America made its roll to dodge.

On a tangentially-related topic, how the hell did we get up to "M" already?? It's barely October! Last year's hurricane thread was almost the exactly same time of year and we were only on "J".
I mean, it's no 2005 (where we hit "R" by mid-September and ran out of letters by late October, leading to shit like Hurricane Epsilon) but it's still pretty active.

Be glad that we aren't currently up to 'S', Hurricane Sandy was in October, and yeah I remember that about so many storms that we ran out of letters to use and had to resort to the greek alphabet.

Anyways, projections show that it looks like it's going to loop around and then hit Florida again? I don't think I've seen a hurricane do that before, at least not in my lifetime. Heck of a double whammy for Florida. Hope all the Florida Bay12ers (and everybody in it's path) get outta there and are okay.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 08:40:40 am by smjjames »
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Itnetlolor

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Re: Weather thread? Weather thread.
« Reply #44 on: October 06, 2016, 09:46:53 am »

Thanks for all the hope/prayers/etc., everyone. I appreciate it, as does everyone else. Everything's almost secure around here before we bug outta here (not long before we go bye bye for awhile). So I'll be silent for the weekend, it seems, or be posting via my phone (while power is still accessible to keep battery full; of course, once no more power, then we're on 'emergencies/family communication only' mode).

Fortunately, I still have all the boxes and crap from when I replaced my computer recently, so thank goodness I can box most of my room up and stow everything in much safer spots; preferably away from any potential waters and otherwise.

Be seeing you guys later. I'll be praying for everyone else caught in this thing's path, hoping it'll hook east and as much off-shore as possible by the time it gets to us (better if sooner than that).
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