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[UXLZ]

This game is an awfully messy one, huh?

Anyway, I'm heading off to bed. Hopefully I won't wake up to a lynching, but seeing as Jack seems to believe I'm third party that's unlikely to happen. I don't particularly like the idea of a no-lynch, but since there's currently an even number of players it's not necessarily as bad as the first night no-lynch.

@Tiruin: I'm going to be looking over stuff a bit more carefully tomorrow. I understand that sometimes you can speak in a funny manner or get a bit confused, but you've really dragged a lot of attention onto something that seems fairly easily resolved and explainable for you. (Under the assumption you're town.)

It's a bit hard to figure out lurking in hammer-based games, but a lot of inactivity is a bit concerning. They can't all be scum, so it's unfortunate.

[Jack A T]

Herding Cats Through an Asylum - Part II: A Large Italian Island

This game is an awfully messy one, huh?

It's no KYOSN, but yeah.
GA/UXLZ is almost certainly a third party (beyond a reasonable doubt, at this point).  Quite a strong position, and I feel justified in taking it here.  Let's go over why.

Earlier today, I gave the start of my analysis of GA/UXLZ and TDS.  My thoughts haven't changed much, but a more complete explanation is needed.

For most of the game, GA's activities were, well...he contributed nothing.  He slid by in the crowd, not really doing anything.   Consistent with mafia, and consistent with many third parties.  Then he made one bad post under pressure (bolding mine):

I revive (once) out of pure hatred of Scilians.

This is not a mistake that mafia makes.  It is an error about the basic flavour of the mafiateam, made by drawing from half-remembered conversations about Sicilians.  Mafia knows what the mafiateam is supposed to be (not Sicilian), and thus wouldn't mistakenly put this sort of false detail (grasping at half-remembered in-thread statements) in.  Third parties, though, don't know what the Mafia flavour is.  Mafia would know that Sicilians have nothing to do with the in-game Mafia and would be immediately caught, whereas third parties can conceivably make this mistake.

This, on its own, points very strongly towards GA/UXLZ being a third party.  That being said, one could conceivably say that he was gambitting scum and that the statement was not a mistake.  That is not particularly plausible.

What would the gambit be?  The most plausible (only halfway plausible one I can think of) would be one in which the Sicilian mention was meant to set up a third party fakeclaim.  This, though, is strategically bizarre.  It's a needlessly high risk move (Sicilians) to do something that itself is pretty high risk (third party fakeclaim), and the latter could be done in much safer ways.  It makes no sense as a strategic move.  It makes no sense as a Mafia move overall.

Yes, GA/UXLZ is almost certainly a third party, and a large Italian island is why.
This leaves a question: what kind of third party is he?

Lyncher (with Deus as initial objective) is fully consistent with all known mechanical information, particularly the workings of insane inspects (which he was not aware of when he made his claim).  Furthermore, the following explanation he gave is consistent with the pre-Sicilian non-behaviour:

In case you were wondering what my plan was before my claim; well, I mostly wanted fool people into thinking that DA and I were scum buddies, but I didn't see an opportunity to "defend" DA.

Inaction fits the explanation of having a plan that didn't fit the opportunities available.

That being said, Tiruin is quite right that GA's behaviour towards Deus did not fit that of a lyncher towards his prey: the sort of hope that scum would NK Deus is strange.  There is a glimmer of a  possible explanation in the record, at least:

Spoiler: Stuff (click to show/hide)

Do not ask who my target is. I'm thinking that, unless a vigilante decides to shoot my target, I'm guaranteed to act in favor of scum when LyLo happens. 

Do you know what will happen when your target is night killed?
~~~

I was going to say I got it from the wiki, but, I now just realized that my wincon might not necessarily become pro-town if my target is nightkilled.
So Fillipk could you please clarify what happens in case a Lyncher's target is nightkilled.

fillipk refused to solidly answer the question.

GA did seem to think that he would turn pro-town if his objective was NKed.  It may be that his thoughts didn't quite change with the lack of answer.

What is he, then?  I don't know.  Lyncher is an odd fakeclaim as thirds go, but GA's behaviour is only somewhat consistent with it.

Ultimately, though, it doesn't matter what kind of third party GA is.  What matters right now is the obvious: he's a third party.

Next: Tiruin is Insane

[Jack A T]

Actually, first, a quick note to deal with a minor loose end I can't figure out a category for.

I recall that fillipk's posts can MAYBE be edited--I'm under speculation that, given my motive (or someone said motive, I think...as far as I recall >_>) regarding this 'intent' being said before, fillipk's post was edited towards that idea.
The mention of motive or intent was not direct, is one leading clue to me thinking about that.

Tiruin: While it is not impossible for fillipk's posts to be edited, the quoted fillipk post has not been edited.  The only fillipk posts that have been edited outside of the few-second opening are votecounts with no answers.  There are no edit markers on any posts with answers/mechanical info on them, meaning that absolutely no outside forces made fillipk edit answers.

[Jack A T]

Herding Cats Through an Asylum - Part III: Fear of a Phantom Framer
With GA/UXLZ a third party, Tiruin is insane.

I know there's a lot of resistance to that particular point.  The resistance is bad.

Objection 1: Tiruin's inspect results are supposedly inconsistent with insanity and GA as a third party/lyncher.  That's utterly wrong.
GA claimed his lynch objective was Deus Asmoth, himself a third party.  Insane cops would inspect GA as mafia regardless of time, just as Tiruin did.  Insane inspects are otherwise unrelated to any sort of targets.

There's the big note that if, including that idea of mind reading the intent, I am insane and mind read a third-party, "NA" would occur. I read it as Mafia[...]

The above quote is a misunderstanding.  That "big note" means nothing.  fillipk's "NA" (No Answer/Not Applicable) is a refusal to give a general answer for insane inspects of third parties.  We quickly learned after the first "NA" that fillipk has specific insane inspect results for each kind of third party (see the fillipk answer UXLZ and I keep pointing you to).

Objection 2: 'But what if it isn't sanity?'
It's sanity.
In addition to sanity being the standard structural inspect-damager, fillipk has clearly put some thought into how it works in this game (see the details about insane cops inspecting lynchers, as well as the careful Not Applicable given before), and doesn't seem remotely prepared for alternatives that have been proposed.  Nobody has provided me any evidence of any systemic problem other than sanity, even after I requested.  fillipk has even repeatedly told us that the inspect results are not random, eliminating one of the more common guesses.

Our collective desperation to find any possible way to avoid accepting that we're dealing with sanity amazes me.

Finally (as far as I noticed), Objection 3: 'But maybe it's a framer!'
It is not plausible that we have a framer in addition to all the problems we know about.

Simply, a framer would largely undermine the core puzzle and imbalance the game heavily in favour of scum.  We have, as a team, one mechanical tool against the scum (plus possibly whatever OSG has): our inspects.  Figuring out the web of messy inspect results is the core puzzle of the game, and is designed to take a few days.  If we're a bit fast, we win.  If we're a bit slow, scum wins.
Adding a framer disrupts the puzzle-solving, leaving us with only our wits and a heap of actively misleading evidence (that our game naturally centres around, of course).  We're facing well-powered thirds and a scumteam.  Mephansteras vetted this setup.  There is no fucking way we're dealing with such misleading core material.  In addition, nothing's needed a framer to be explained.  We don't have a framer.

Framers are terrible roles anyway.  Almost always too weak to be worth using, but in this game too powerful to be credibly included.  Their core function is not a mechanical one, though.  Their core function, just by existing as a hypothetical role, is to undermine confidence in inspects.  Every guilty is allegedly a framer's guilty when we're nervous, but almost none ever are.

Just this once, let's not be paralyzed in fear of a phantom framer.

Tomorrow: TheDarkStar is Mafia.

[UXLZ]

The only person resisting Tiruin's insanity is Tiruin herself, at least as far as I've noticed. The vote for TDS is in-line with my predecessor's actions so I'll follow through with that.

My own particular reasons for voting him, independent of whatever GA might have been thinking, are thusly:.

The cardinal sin of the D1 no-lynch. (Yes, that is an over-exaggeration but a D1 no-lynch is generally a bad idea. By doing so you hand the scum kill-initiative, and by not lynching the scummiest/lurkerest players, they remain to provide distractions later on in the game where correct lynches are much more critical. Even if you are worried about a mislynch, I believe Jack did an analysis where a shockingly high percentage of D1 lynches actually hit their mark.) Yes, everyone ended up voting for it (including my predecessor, which I am quite unhappy about) but TDS was the one who suggested it.

One page and 3 real-time days into Day 2, TDS is already suggesting (and this time actually voting for) another no-lynch.

Also, not a single one of his posts contains more than a few lines worth of (his own) text. He seems to be trying to stay around mid-level visibility while getting to the night as soon as possible, and while it's true that quality is more important than quantity, most of his posts tend to hover around "adequate." as best. Not pushing too hard, not making too many ripples, not fading into utter obscurity, just the bare minimum.

[Tiruin]

The only person resisting Tiruin's insanity is Tiruin herself, at least as far as I've noticed.

Yeah, a shorthand for my thinking about all this is 'resisting'
TDS
PFP

[UXLZ]

When you're still running all over the place like a headless chicken after having a quote from the moderator thrown at you multiple times explaining exactly how things work, that's definitely "resisting" . Though perhaps it was your stress.

[Tiruin]

Yeah
But it's also me thinking about the implications--covering all this, this gives insight to both N1 and N2 results--Me, Jack, and TMS/I forgot who replaced him, are insane.
The implications cover N1/N2.
I lack time to go through that.

[Jack A T]

Herding Cats Through an Asylum - Part IV: The End?
With Tiruin insane, TheDarkStar (her town result from D1) is scum.

Few people settle for an inspect alone, though.  I'd do a full analysis of TDS's activities, but I did one over a week ago that's still complete (TDS posted once since then, and said almost nothing beyond that he voted OSG out of process of elimination).

Here's the stuff:

TDS is tough to read at the best of times.  He's one of our more laconic players, and tends to leave a thin record.  That being said, he leaves a record.

I can't say I agree with GA's points against TDS: aside from the D2 no lynch vote, the material given was pretty normal behaviour in this game.  The D2 no lynch vote is strange: two opportunities for scum to choose who dies?  However, even that was unfortunately within the set of normal town responses to the general hammer/cop mess.

What I can say, though, is that TDS's approach to getting his suspects lynched is odd.  To put it simply, he doesn't have one.

Midway through Day 1, TDS voted for Fallacy based on Fallacy's OSG semi-attacks.  TDS's only further post D1?  How to avoid an endless D1 through timed no-lynching.  No pursuit, and no effort to get people voting for Fallacy.  Just, well, that.  Day 2, TDS claimed town on Fallacy and immediately called for no lynch.  The inspect result at least gives some cause for the time it took for him to return to voting Fallacy.  There was one post of continued pursuit, and then the vote just...sat.  He did tell OSG that people suspected Fallacy, which I guess is close to actually pushing a lynch, and he did add people not voting Fallacy as a reason to vote Fallacy, but he hardly tried to pursue or lynch his target.  He is also one of the people who did not appear to respond to my call for case argument and comparison near the end of D2.

Currently, he's voting OSG for...some reason.  He has FoSed OSG before, for OSG's GA vote D2.

To be fair to TDS, he has been busy.  Still, this record is not one that indicates much effort to get suspects lynched.  Lot of sliding through days.  Troubling.

The most alarming bit to me is his lack of interest in pushing his lynches or pursuing his suspects.  He's slid by with no effort, little content, and no movement of the game towards a town victory.

Let's finish this day already, and let's finish it with a scum lynch.

fillipk: Please prod OSG, kanoguti, TDS, BearShogun1692, and juicebox.

[kanoguti]

I've been keeping up. Planning on making responses.

I will say this. Lets not NoLynch.

[TheDarkStar]

Alright, given people's votes on my I should probably claim my actual role.

I am a teacher who can probe people's minds. I can view a copy of someone's role pm (which includes both role and alignment). So far I've checked FoU (which returned the result he flipped, but I doubted my sanity because FoU was acting really suspicious - maybe I was a naive cop who always got a generic town result?) and Tiruin (which returned the same result, but I'm convinced I'm sane now given FoU's flip). Tonight I intend to check either Jack or UXLZ if I'm not dead. I pretended to be a normal but sane cop to avoid getting immediately nightkilled and because I haven't found any especially useful results yet.

Given Tiruin's and my inspection results, I'm certain UXLZ is scum unless something funny is happening with the way third parties are handled upon inspection.

OSG, could you please share the details of your results from checking UXLZ? You've said that he revives, but nothing else. How much did your inspection tell you? Also, can you continue using your inspection?

Jack A T: I'll add "Objection 4: Tiruin is town, I am town, and GA/UXLZ is mafia".

[Jack A T]

Jack A T: I'll add "Objection 4: Tiruin is town, I am town, and GA/UXLZ is mafia".

TDS: At last, you choose one of the four scenarios to accept, instead of just halfheartedly going after OSG.

Now, your "Objection 4" is covered in Part II.  Would you care to explain why I am wrong there, instead of just saying I'm wrong?  Furthermore, explain the following from your previous post:

Currently, I think that Tiruin and Jack are town. I mostly believe GA's claim.

In fact, in general (and this continues even now with this latest post), you have refused to engage with my logic regarding sanity and GA.  I have repeatedly requested your engagement with my statements, and you have repeatedly avoided engaging.  Even now, you reject a part of my logic without engaging, just using a couple utterly empty one liners.

Counter the logic.

[Tiruin]

Re: Mind Reading Mafia Day 3: Hey I like that, "Herding Cats Through an Asylum"

And we love you too fillipk, meow!
Although I'm :V at the term of Asylum, I can...partly get it if it's used archaically
That or I'm silly. I bet I'm the latter :I

Herding Cats Through an Asylum - Part IV: The End?
With Tiruin insane, TheDarkStar (her town result from D1) is scum.[...]

I...really would emphasize an overview reading of N1/N2 results here (it's somehow not present in your Cats posts o_O?)
and PFP because

Jack A T: I'll add "Objection 4: Tiruin is town, I am town, and GA/UXLZ is mafia".

Ok while I AM posting in brevity here, y'all are going with a lack of context with your counter-trading between each other :I I agreed with Jack's idea but have a yet-translucent idea on his work because of lacking context to context of night actions; if such and such may be true, thus there may be added leads to gain from such, for example.

But he has a point o_O I AM baffled by getting Mafia on GA/UXLZ which has been suitably reasoned out by those two doods.
So hence why I put emphasis on context.

[Jack A T]

I...really would emphasize an overview reading of N1/N2 results here (it's somehow not present in your Cats posts o_O?)

Tiruin: Alright, a quick overview: you being insane implies a bit of stuff, but not very much.  There are two problems.  One is that only one of us has two different inspect results.  The rest of us have the same twice, and cannot rule out (as appropriate) naive or paranoid, no matter what we learn about others.  The other is that we have few inspects in the relevant area, limiting the impact.

Still, you being insane town rules out a possibility for two players. Bearshogun/TMS isn't sane (could be insane or paranoid), and I'm not sane (could be insane or paranoid).

Also, we don't know what BHK did.  Huh.

N1:
*Jack A T: Tiruin, Mafia
*Tiruin: TDS, Town
*FallacyofUrist: Jack, Mafia
*kanoguti (BHK): origamiscienceguy, Town
*Bearshogun (TMS): Tiruin, Mafia
*TheDarkStar: Fallacy, Town
*juicebox: Fallacy, Mafia

N2:
*Jack A T: BHK, Mafia
*Tiruin: GA/UXLZ, Mafia
*kanoguti (BHK): ...?
*Bearshogun (TMS): BHK, Mafia
*TheDarkStar: Tiruin, Town
*juicebox: BHK, Mafia


kanoguti: Your inspect result last night, and why you didn't mention it?

[Jack A T]

EBWOP: It also does support OSG's role inspect claim, not that that needs much support.