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[Jack A T]

You know, it's hard to get much out of trying to put the puzzle pieces we have together when we don't remember what the pieces even are.  Let's deal with that.

GA:
Two things. First, if you are currently being read as scum, then your target must be mafia (assuming Tiruin is sane, which I know to be true because I'm town and I hope you also see) and revealing who that is in the best interest of the town.

TheDarkStar: GA's claimed target was Deus Asmoth, as he recently made clear.  It really wasn't that hard to figure out.
GA's new target, he claims, is Deus's killer, whoever that is.  If true, he obviously doesn't know who his precise target is.  In fact, he's asked fillipk whether the killer is the scumteam as a whole or one specific mafioso.
Any non-town lyncher target results in a Mafia inspect when the inspector is insane, and sane cops inspecting lynchers get a Third Party result.

With that in mind, TDS, there are a few possibilities:
*Tiruin is lying scum.
*Tiruin is sane, and GA is mafia.
*Tiruin is insane, and you are mafia.
*Some non-sanity thing caused one or more of Tiruin's inspect results.

Which do you think is the case and why, TDS?  As already asked, please engage with the logic I gave in this linked post.

And the last part (the one with ", and also because") is implying your target is DA.

Tiruin: It's hardly implying when he's already made the claim.  GA's claimed initial target was Deus Asmoth.  GA's new claimed target is the killer of Deus, an unknown figure.
GayArchaea: When did you first become aware of the way your lyncher target changes?
Also, what was you intention behind each mention of vigilantes in this linked post?

And again, Everyone: What evidence, if any, exists that points to a structural inspection problem other than sanity?

Hopefully my next post will include the analysis I need to do.

[fillipk]

Kanoguti is replacing in for BHK

[origamiscienceguy]

Last night, I used NK immunity.

It is a possibility that the cops are all random, although I seriously doubt it.

So far, everybody why investigated the same person each night got the same result as eachother, so maybe the people's "appearence" is random. Or maybe there is an incriminator who has been messing everything up.

[Jack A T]

I'll do the analysis tomorrow.  Not much time today.

Kanoguti: Welcome to the game!  Thoughts on the current situation?  Anything that needs clarifying?

It is a possibility that the cops are all random, although I seriously doubt it.

So far, everybody why investigated the same person each night got the same result as eachother, so maybe the people's "appearence" is random. Or maybe there is an incriminator who has been messing everything up.

origamiscienceguy: We don't have random cops.  Unsuitable for a non-bastard game, fillipk said.
Also, unless juicebox or TDS lied, there have been different results on the same person on the same night.

I continue to be baffled by the popularity of the single framer theory.

[Tiruin]

Kanoguti is replacing in for BHK

Yay, newbie! (Or someone I don't know. Sorry if newbie seems offensive if ever!)
Welcome to Bay12 Kanoguti!

[...]

It is a possibility that the cops are all random, although I seriously doubt it.[...]

I...have a very distinct feeling that this is invalid by earlier responses on both results and otherwise, but lack the time to explicitly check back >_> There's enough significant details to form a pattern or association plan from what people have noted D2, and earlier D3, to check these kinds of assumptions. ...But I've to check back to ensure I'm also being sure! :I
Everyone: Can someone get a summary out of the N1/N2 stuf and results? I also feel the targets discussed @near-D2-end is also important here.

Last night, I used NK immunity.

Also query to you--why do NK immunity again?

[...]
With that in mind, TDS, there are a few possibilities:
*Tiruin is lying scum.
*Tiruin is sane, and GA is mafia.
*Tiruin is insane, and you are mafia.
*Some non-sanity thing caused one or more of Tiruin's inspect results.[...]

And again, Everyone: What evidence, if any, exists that points to a structural inspection problem other than sanity?

Also just to note--I'm against lynching myself in favor of knowledge :v because my only point here lies in saying:
"I've the exact same stuff as FoU. Like, seriously. Even the flavor text matches."
But anyway. I'm baffled too on GA's note--and given his ideas, it is hard to see otherwise in contradiction. What I recall in my notes of him are:
> He knows his LYNCH target.
> He doesn't claim who that is, but does claim Lyncher in public.
> Reasons towards his claim does not cover 'I don't want anyone inspecting me' or anything of that theme
> I inspected MAFIA on him (in nice red in my PM :v)
> ...There was something he said about something and DeusAsmoth?

That said...I'm of the suspicion that the Mafia team is among the 4 outliers that are not alignment-cops <_< Given the hilarity involving insane/sanity, it seems like a plausible assumption to counterbalance the field. Although it'd seem...strange, to note that if this was the case, they are killing off those within that sample population.
Although Griffinpup and DA are the night targets and FoU was the only lynchee (lychee? ), there also exists the idea that the mafiateam are also suspicious of others not within the pattern of alignment cops and such (I recall towards the end of D1, people were noting how many powers they had)
So I push forward the notion that lynching GA at this time and place can give more towards the outcome of unraveling this knot.

I continue to be baffled by the popularity of the single framer theory.

I...uhh, don't believe it that much anymore given the notes of sanity/insanity having more of a significant impact in insight than a single-framer-person.

OSG: Details on GA and that resurrect of his please. Does it apply during a lynch? Is there a roleflip?
As you are voting him, I expect details forthwith here.

[kanoguti]

I am reading the thread. I'll try to hurry.

Kanoguti: Welcome to the game!  Thoughts on the current situation?  Anything that needs clarifying?

No thanks.

[Tiruin]

I am reading the thread. I'll try to hurry.

There's no hurry as the day only ends on hammer. But 'hurry' in giving ideas though. We can't let this day go stale.

[kanoguti]

Okay, so essentially here are some thoughts I've had throughout the game.

First of all, and least importantly.
The setup is probably 7-3-1. If it is anything other, then that is just stupid. I would not be surprised if it is 8-3-1, but I'm not too familiar with the setups here so I guess this is mainly a shot in the dark.

My initial reaction was that Tiruin was incredibly scummy. However it seems I am more or less tied to her, along with Jack A.T. (The reason why I originally thought Tiruin was scummy was because of their incredible overreaction to Jack A.T. accusing them, however in retrospect it seems Tiruin is someone who likes to post a lot)
The reason why I am explaining this is because I want you guys to understand my thought process. It's not anything special, I just want to make things transparent.

Now the reason why I feel tied to Jack AT and Tiruin is mainly because of day 2. It feels difficult to explain since I was not actually in the game, but I feel it. The reactions of both Jack and Tiruin seem genuine from me and apparently BHK as well.

So my strong town is currently
Myself
Tiruin
Jack AT
"Soft town" is currently
bearshogun

Now before I continue I should note that I really don't give a shit about PoE, and I didn't take note of any of it when making this post. So apologizes, it's admittedly confusing for me unless I am in from the very beginning. Please, inform me of the obvious PoE if you feel it's necessary.

So as for scum.
I would like to hear more from Gay before even considering killing him, Tiruin's vote seemed to be more of a pressure-vote than anything.

Oragamiscienceguy is pretty scummy. But it's pointless to muse over him. I want to keep this lynch focused.

DarkStar is so unnoticeable so I'm going to re-read all their posts right now.
So essentially the main thing I'm getting from DarkStar is that they really don't care a lot. Is TheDarkStar relatively new? Regardless of when they started playing, they're more likely Town than not. Even if they are Mafia they aren't anything to worry about. The only real issue arises if the team of Mafia is Oragamiscienceguy - DarkStar - ??? (I still feel this is a 2-player mafia game, please correct me if I'm wrong. On the sites I've played on a setup like 8-2-1 was common, not something like 7-3-1.)

--I have to ask. How strong are the power roles on this site on average? This is important.

Back to the scum. In my opinion it seems to be a Juicebox vs Gay lynch. Unless there is 3 mafia then I will revise this completely.


I will explain any questions, as I know my posts can ramble on and get confusing. And to note I really don't care if we can edit posts or not. I've never been on a site that allows editing posts so don't expect me to do so unless I make a small spelling error.
In fact overall I feel the editing posts "mechanic" to be largely irrelevant and I would not like to waste time speaking about it.

[Jack A T]

I request a replacement.

Apologies, everyone.  I just don't have the time or energy to deal with this mess right now.

Please keep track of the mechanical information fillipk's given, and note how it fits/doesn't fit with people's claims.
Read carefully.
Do voting stuff and kill scum.

[juicebox]

Okay, so essentially here are some thoughts I've had throughout the game.

First of all, and least importantly.
The setup is probably 7-3-1. If it is anything other, then that is just stupid. I would not be surprised if it is 8-3-1, but I'm not too familiar with the setups here so I guess this is mainly a shot in the dark.

My initial reaction was that Tiruin was incredibly scummy. However it seems I am more or less tied to her, along with Jack A.T. (The reason why I originally thought Tiruin was scummy was because of their incredible overreaction to Jack A.T. accusing them, however in retrospect it seems Tiruin is someone who likes to post a lot)
The reason why I am explaining this is because I want you guys to understand my thought process. It's not anything special, I just want to make things transparent.

Now the reason why I feel tied to Jack AT and Tiruin is mainly because of day 2. It feels difficult to explain since I was not actually in the game, but I feel it. The reactions of both Jack and Tiruin seem genuine from me and apparently BHK as well.

So my strong town is currently
Myself
Tiruin
Jack AT
"Soft town" is currently
bearshogun

Now before I continue I should note that I really don't give a shit about PoE, and I didn't take note of any of it when making this post. So apologizes, it's admittedly confusing for me unless I am in from the very beginning. Please, inform me of the obvious PoE if you feel it's necessary.

So as for scum.
I would like to hear more from Gay before even considering killing him, Tiruin's vote seemed to be more of a pressure-vote than anything.

Oragamiscienceguy is pretty scummy. But it's pointless to muse over him. I want to keep this lynch focused.

DarkStar is so unnoticeable so I'm going to re-read all their posts right now.
So essentially the main thing I'm getting from DarkStar is that they really don't care a lot. Is TheDarkStar relatively new? Regardless of when they started playing, they're more likely Town than not. Even if they are Mafia they aren't anything to worry about. The only real issue arises if the team of Mafia is Oragamiscienceguy - DarkStar - (I still feel this is a 2-player mafia game, please correct me if I'm wrong. On the sites I've played on a setup like 8-2-1 was common, not something like 7-3-1.)

--I have to ask. How strong are the power roles on this site on average? This is important.

Back to the scum. In my opinion it seems to be a Juicebox vs Gay lynch. Unless there is 3 mafia then I will revise this completely.


I will explain any questions, as I know my posts can ramble on and get confusing. And to note I really don't care if we can edit posts or not. I've never been on a site that allows editing posts so don't expect me to do so unless I make a small spelling error.
In fact overall I feel the editing posts "mechanic" to be largely irrelevant and I would not like to waste time speaking about it.

First of all, I would like to point out that you're saying that you think that there are two scum, and that you think there are three, in the same post, unless I'm missing something.
Secondly, TDS has been here for a bit. In fact, I believe bear and I are the newest people herrle
Third, would you mind explaining why you suspect me?

[kanoguti]

First of all, I would like to point out that you're saying that you think that there are two scum, and that you think there are three, in the same post, unless I'm missing something.
Secondly, TDS has been here for a bit. In fact, I believe bear and I are the newest people herrle
Third, would you mind explaining why you suspect me?

1. No, I'm saying that I do not know whether or not their are two or three mafia. (Sorry for not clarifying)
On the sites I've played on in the past in 11p setups there was never more than 2 mafia. Again I apologize since I rarely played with 3rd parties, so I have a habit of calling mafia scum.
2. Thank you.
3. It mainly hinges on the fact that you haven't been proactive in moving the game forward. Someone like Jack set things up day 1, or at least tried to.

[Tiruin]

PFP
I like kanoguti's insights o_O

But query:

[...] (I still feel this is a 2-player mafia game, please correct me if I'm wrong. On the sites I've played on a setup like 8-2-1 was common, not something like 7-3-1.)

--I have to ask. How strong are the power roles on this site on average? This is important.

Back to the scum. In my opinion it seems to be a Juicebox vs Gay lynch. Unless there is 3 mafia then I will revise this completely. [...]

I'm under the heavy impression that this is a 2-man team, as if it was a 3-man, there may be a pattern behavior in the past days which follows the concept of subtle concealment of motive and such.

Also we cannot know the exact #s of third-parties That is the conundrum with GayArachnea and his claim of LYNCHER while I investigated MAFIA on him. He has noted no themes of 'Godfather' or otherwise that makes him seem Mafia, nor has mentioned any idea of being framed but has gone straight to questioning sanity and its entailing assumptions considering me (thus attacking TDS). This exactness of behavior, while it makes sense in a way to me, feels...incomplete. Like it was planned given the brevity of it.

But yeah, if it was 3 mafia, we're standing at lesser or equal to 5 town, 3 mafia, and an unknown # of third-parties now.

[Jack A T]

Fuck it, I'm staying.

fillipk: I retract my replacement request.

Content soonish.

[Jack A T]

We have a quite limited set of scenarios we could be dealing with.  I strongly believe that Tiruin is town.  I strongly doubt we have a non-sanity systemic problem, no matter how desperate we are to find one: fillipk's quite prepared for sanity and utterly unprepared for everything else we come up with.
I even more strongly doubt that we have a framer in addition to the systemic problem: with everything we know about the setup, this would be a ludicrously unbalanced game with that (and, for that matter, pretty bastardy for a non-bastard).  This game was vetted by Mephansteras.  We're not dealing with a game with a town that pretty much is limited to masses of inspects, powers none of us want to use, and possibly whatever OSG has, with the inspects also being systemically inaccurate and the systemic inaccuracy being compounded by an additional trace-ruining source of inaccuracy.  There is a limit to how anti-town we can reasonably assume this game to be, and systemic+framer (plus a vote-stealing LYLO-breaking survivor) goes well beyond that.

So, that leaves Sane Tiruin and Insane Tiruin.

If Tiruin is sane, we are left with a situation where scum GA fakeclaimed lyncher after the "scilians" flop and TDS is a townie.  If Tiruin is insane, GA's theoretical objective (seemingly not one he cared for), lynching survivor Deus Asmoth, led to him coming up as mafia when inspected, while TDS is a mafioso.

So, what do we have?
GayArchaea basically contributed nothing (aside from a bit of befuddlement over my steganography) until, when power flavour was demanded, he scilianed.  This is close to as bad as a fakeclaim can get: a major supporting detail, the flavour identity of the Mafia, was drawn not from flavour, but from my earlier comparison of Tiruin to Vizzini: Vizzini was Sicilian, the Mafia (real life) is Sicilian...but there is less than no reason to believe that the Mafia in this game is Sicilian (it doesn't even remotely fit the light, nationless flavour).  My guess is that GA put in what he remembered someone calling the Mafia to back up a fakeclaim, something I am quite doubtful the Mafia would do (for one, they would know the in-game Mafia's flavour).  Cue lyncher claim.

Beyond that...well, I think I've got a good idea of why he did what he did after that, including the oddly anti-factional-interest behaviour regarding lynching his target.  To say anything would taint his answers to several standing questions, so I will wait for him to give his answers.

As for TheDarkStar...
TDS is tough to read at the best of times.  He's one of our more laconic players, and tends to leave a thin record.  That being said, he leaves a record.

I can't say I agree with GA's points against TDS: aside from the D2 no lynch vote, the material given was pretty normal behaviour in this game.  The D2 no lynch vote is strange: two opportunities for scum to choose who dies?  However, even that was unfortunately within the set of normal town responses to the general hammer/cop mess.

What I can say, though, is that TDS's approach to getting his suspects lynched is odd.  To put it simply, he doesn't have one.

Midway through Day 1, TDS voted for Fallacy based on Fallacy's OSG semi-attacks.  TDS's only further post D1?  How to avoid an endless D1 through timed no-lynching.  No pursuit, and no effort to get people voting for Fallacy.  Just, well, that.  Day 2, TDS claimed town on Fallacy and immediately called for no lynch.  The inspect result at least gives some cause for the time it took for him to return to voting Fallacy.  There was one post of continued pursuit, and then the vote just...sat.  He did tell OSG that people suspected Fallacy, which I guess is close to actually pushing a lynch, and he did add people not voting Fallacy as a reason to vote Fallacy, but he hardly tried to pursue or lynch his target.  He is also one of the people who did not appear to respond to my call for case argument and comparison near the end of D2.

Currently, he's voting OSG for...some reason.  He has FoSed OSG before, for OSG's GA vote D2.

To be fair to TDS, he has been busy.  Still, this record is not one that indicates much effort to get suspects lynched.  Lot of sliding through days.  Troubling.

I'd like to see a bit more information from both TDS and GA before voting.

TheDarkStar: Why do you currently suspect OSG?
kanoguti: Bay 12 tends towards rather high-powered games, but varies widely.  This seems to be a gimmick setup first and foremost, with an initially weak but potentially strong town held back by a puzzle.
Normal scumteam size here for a game about this size: 2-3, depending on the number of and power of third parties.  7-2-2 would make sense, as would 8-2-1.  7-3-1 is not out of the question, but I'm with Tiruin on that.
TDS is not new.

fillipk: Please prod TDS and GA.

[TheDarkStar]

Currently, he's voting OSG for...some reason.  He has FoSed OSG before, for OSG's GA vote D2.

I'm voting OSG by process of elimination - based on who is likely to be town, OSG was one of the four left. Of those four, OSG was one of the more likely.

TDS is not new.

 


I detailed my reads in this post and there hasn't been too much more content since then. I'll read through the GA stuff again though.