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Author Topic: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: T+0  (Read 1411941 times)

Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17850 on: January 20, 2017, 03:22:29 pm »

Although I will say that the DOD are also the people who said that "with sufficient foreign assistance" that Iran could fire ICBMs at America by 2015. Except the "sufficient" assistance would be doing all of the work and supplying all of the money, knowledge and materials to do so. So basically they could have ICBMs if one of the ~5 nations with ICBMs decided to give them one for free, and this was supposed to make us scared that Iran was coming for us any day now.
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/202707/iranian-icbm-by-2015/

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The Pentagon submitted a report to Congress (2010) containing the claim that Iran could develop an intercontinental ballistic missile by 2015.

Ah, the dreaded could.

"With sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could probably develop and test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the United States by 2015."

Unfortunately, this is just intelligence community boilerplate — the same sentence has appeared in every edition of Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat: 2009, 2006, 2003 and 2000. Seriously, you can look it up.

So when they write other things about the scope of Iranian power I get skeptical.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 03:33:46 pm by Reelya »
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17851 on: January 20, 2017, 03:25:38 pm »

Well you know... Reelya didn't post any real sources, unless you look at the real source he posted.

Just sort of tilt your eyeballs upward.
I make no apologies for sources edited in after the fact, instead, I offer thanks

Rolan7

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17852 on: January 20, 2017, 03:33:39 pm »

Although I will say that the DOD are also the people who said that "with sufficient foreign assistance" that Iran could fire ICBMs at America by 2015. Except the "sufficient" assistance would be doing all of the work and supplying all of the money, knowledge and materials to do so. So basically they could have ICBMs if one of the ~5 nations with ICBMs decided to give them one for free, and this was supposed to make us scared that Iran was coming for us any day now.
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/202707/iranian-icbm-by-2015/

Oh BTW, later I found out that (via another article) every year they said that Iranian ICBMs are 5 years away, starting sometime in the 1990s. So basically the "threat assessment" constantly saying Iranian ICBMs were 5 years away was boilerplate and utter bullshit, it was put in there so that if the USA ever decided to invade Iran they could point to the latest "risk assessment" which said Iranian ICBMs would attack America "within 5 years" as a cassus belli. "5 years" is the figure because it's soon enough that it's scary, but long enough that the complete lack of evidence of it happening is plausible.

So when they write other things about the scope of Iranian power I get skeptical.
So while you're right that it was probably just a pretense, there's nothing actually hypocritical about the constant 5-years figure.  They weren't claiming Iran would have working nukes in 5 years, just that they could...  If they were allowed (and chose) to focus on that project.

Not to mention it's an estimate, of course.
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Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17853 on: January 20, 2017, 03:35:20 pm »

But only if another country did it for them. That's how the escape clause of "sufficient foreign assistance" works. Which country could and would want to do for them (consider they really couldn't afford to pay you for it) was left up in the air.

EDIT: BTW I misremembered, it wasn't within 5 years, it was always "2015" but they stuck to their guns virtually up to the date itself and left the "by 2015" assessment stand, even though there was no evidence of such a program or "sufficient foreign assistance" of any kind in the intervening 15 years. So it just started as a very unlikely assessment (since no foreign assistance to make Iranian ICBMs is even known about), but got increasingly silly to keep repeating as the "doom date" approached.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 03:38:59 pm by Reelya »
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Rolan7

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17854 on: January 20, 2017, 03:37:56 pm »

I'd assume they could just buy nuclear material from the former soviet block with all their oil money, but I probably don't understand the issue...
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Quote from: Fallen London, one Unthinkable Hope
This one didn't want to be who they was. On the Surface – it was a dull, unconsidered sadness. But everything changed. Which implied everything could change.

Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17855 on: January 20, 2017, 03:40:11 pm »

I think having working ICBMs is a bit more involved. Note that the assessment doesn't even try to claim that Iran could make it's own ICBMs, even the hype-masters admit that they could only do it if another country did it for them.

martinuzz

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17856 on: January 20, 2017, 03:46:07 pm »

What? Trump has been a president for over 2 hours now, and he still hasn't been impeached? Wtf is wrong with you, America?
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Neonivek

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17857 on: January 20, 2017, 03:49:25 pm »

What? Trump has been a president for over 2 hours now, and he still hasn't been impeached? Wtf is wrong with you, America?

Have you seen the Vice President?

They seriously attached a wonderful suicide vest to Trump.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17858 on: January 20, 2017, 03:50:07 pm »

What? Trump has been a president for over 2 hours now, and he still hasn't been impeached? Wtf is wrong with you, America?

Have you seen the Vice President?

They seriously attached a wonderful suicide vest to Trump.
Would you rather have electric fence or electric pence

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17859 on: January 20, 2017, 03:51:12 pm »

Hopefully Trump keeps Pence in the ring on his crimes, it'll make it easier to impeach every member of the executive branch consecutively.
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smjjames

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17860 on: January 20, 2017, 03:52:19 pm »

What? Trump has been a president for over 2 hours now, and he still hasn't been impeached? Wtf is wrong with you, America?

Have you seen the Vice President?

They seriously attached a wonderful suicide vest to Trump.

You talk like Pence is the polar opposite of Trump, but he's not really, Pence is still terrible in lots of ways.
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Criptfeind

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17861 on: January 20, 2017, 03:53:45 pm »

Er. I think that was his point? That Pence is so bad that he's like a suicide vest on trump, politically kill trump and put Pence in charge, and everything goes boom.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 03:55:33 pm by Criptfeind »
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Rolan7

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17862 on: January 20, 2017, 03:55:40 pm »

What? Trump has been a president for over 2 hours now, and he still hasn't been impeached? Wtf is wrong with you, America?

Have you seen the Vice President?

They seriously attached a wonderful suicide vest to Trump.
I want to sig this, but I don't want to bring politics everywhere.
You talk like Pence is the polar opposite of Trump, but he's not really, Pence is still terrible in lots of ways.
Uh, opposite?  He's Trump plus moral majority horror.  At least a Trump America would only enslave us, we'd at least be free to be homo or non-Christian.

Not that Trump is good on LGBT issues, but he's by far better than Pence.  Honestly he doesn't seem to give a shit, which isn't that bad.
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She/they
No justice: no peace.
Quote from: Fallen London, one Unthinkable Hope
This one didn't want to be who they was. On the Surface – it was a dull, unconsidered sadness. But everything changed. Which implied everything could change.

Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17863 on: January 20, 2017, 03:57:56 pm »

Trump also signed a proclamation creating the National Day of Patriotism.

It's started. Sieg Heil! Any guesses on the date that this will fall on. And what punishments will await those who are not sufficiently patriotic on this new holiday?

I vote 14th of June for the National Day Of Patriotism.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 04:00:20 pm by Reelya »
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WealthyRadish

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: 2016, Version 2.0
« Reply #17864 on: January 20, 2017, 03:59:37 pm »

I had written off civil war as a fantastical delusion, but damn, it's already feeling just a little bit more possible.
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