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[Gentlefish]

This is the year we learned MSH is not to be allowed to predict anything except that we all gain immortal cyberbodies, FTL is discovered, and Toady figured out an easy way to make DF multi-threaded for huge performance gains.

I can't wait into multithreaded DF.

[Max™]

This is also the year internet memes leaked into serious political discussion, and where we all laughed at Britain before discovering how much we have in common with them after all.

Seriously though, MSH, you are like the worst Cassandra ever.

This is the year we learned MSH is not to be allowed to predict anything except that we all gain immortal cyberbodies, FTL is discovered, and Toady figured out an easy way to make DF multi-threaded for huge performance gains.

I can't wait into multithreaded DF.

I almost wrote "and Toady figured out into DF multi-threaded" but it annoyed my grammarian side.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

It gets worse than that. Remember my long-winded assertions that we need to massively truncate birth rates or else we're certain to fall into ecological collapse?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I also talked about the clathrate gun hypothesis that one time, but I wasn't sure if I bought into it so I'm not sure if it counts.

[wierd]

Clathrate gun?

Already fired , but no-one seems to care.

the birthrate prblem is also real, but then there is also the myth of having shown Malthus wrong. (protip, there is 60 years of soil science detailing how the green revolution in agriculture is not sustainable. add climate change from too many people, and malthus returns, now with zombie powers.)

for those inclined:
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0097732
http://grist.org/article/2010-02-23-new-research-synthetic-nitrogen-destroys-soil-carbon-undermines/

[smjjames]

The heck is a clathrate gun? Sounds like some kind of strange geological thing. *looks up the word clathrate*

Edit: oh, it's a chemical lattice. I fail to see what that that has to do with population though.

Edit2: *actually looks at the wiki article for clathrate gun*. Oh. There's no evidence it's been fired yet though.

[wierd]

re: no evidence of clathrate gun being fired

yes there is.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/methane-siberia-climate-change/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796306001874
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X99000928

also, methane emissions have been steadily rising since the 2010 publication date of the first article.

the gun fired. everyone was too concerned about other things though.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/15/record-breaking-temperatures-have-robbed-the-arctic-of-its-winter
https://www.wired.com/2016/11/record-temperatures-robbing-arctic-winter/

arctic heatwave kinda brings it home, eh?

[smjjames]

I had it conceptualized as one massive BOOM all at once firing rather than a slow at first and escalating climb. Probably the gun part of the theory.

[Frumple]

You just gotta remember a massive boom in regards to geological timeframes can coincide with generations worth of a historical one.

[wierd]

its a tipping point issue. once temperatures rise enough to begin destablizing deposits, the contributions of the added gasses make destablization of deeper deposits happen, in a runaway reaction. that is exactly what is happening.

[smjjames]

Yeah, I'm thinking I misunderstood the gun being the tipping point where it all goes critical and explodes rather than the upward and logarithmically speeding up curve on the graph.

Or possibly the fault is me imagining it looking more dramatic.

[wierd]

more, once the trigger is pulled, you cant recall the bullet.

the gun is fired.

welcome to the new future.

[Frumple]

I mean, the thing is is that it does look dramatic. Pants-shittingly dramatic. Just not from a particularly human standpoint.

[smjjames]

more, once the trigger is pulled, you cant recall the bullet.

the gun is fired.

welcome to the new future.

Yeah, the analogy and the name makes more sense with that.

@frumple: I'll be honest here and that I was imagining that the gun was supposed to be when  the very ocean starts visibly bubbling with escaped methane, you know, in a Hollywood dramatic kind of way, but that would be the critical tipping point, not the firing itself.

[wierd]

sorry to be doom and gloom, but damn, science has been screaming its head off at us since 1906.

one of the reasons i feel sick at "economics" and its precondition of infinite growth, and why i get rather hot when people use economist forecasts about global carrying capacity, while handwaving malthus, and ignoring paper after paper definitively linking nitrogen fertilizer use with soil depletion, and paper after paper linking urbanization and modernization of human population centers with increased greenhouse emissions.

i have watched this go on for a good 15 years.

shit will get real in our lifetimes.