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[Reelya]

I find it hard to understand the argument for immigration to developed countries in the face of the automation revolution. why would a country want more people if they can only provide less and less jobs.

Because it's cheaper to import skilled people than to train locals to have those skills. Building high-tech schools is a long-term prospect. If those skills are going to be automated soon, then it makes sense to poach skilled people from other countries rather than to invest in training infrastructure. So ... a skill that's on the verge of being automated, but not quite yet is actually the #1 thing you'd want to use immigrants to fill the gap, while you close down existing training of locals.

Also, immigrants are consumers. Without immigrants you would see price deflation and therefore no investment.

[wierd]

Did the USA benefit, or did it suffer, when all those german and jewish rocket scientists came in the late 40s and early 50s?

Even if they dont get jobs, they still bring useful insights from their different experience base to the country. Kind of high-thinking, but still true.

For a real, and present example:  Jack o lanterns.

We did not do this custom until AFTER the irish potato famine, that brought literal boatloads of refugees here. Originally, it was a carved turnip. It mutated on exposure to pumpkins.  Now we have a new cultural fixture. Would not have happened if millions of poor irish people had not literally sold themselves to get here, even though they could not find work.

[smjjames]

The low birth rate in Europe pretty much forced them to open more to immigration because otherwise they'd be in crisis. I don't think anybody is in full crisis mode yet from the low birth rate, though Japan is likely the closest to it.

[wierd]

Statistically, Japan is in "Oh shit, sweet mother of god, we are in serious SHIT!!" territory there. Historical numbers indicate imminent cultural collapse, but then again, old data is for a world with much higher mortality rates.

[Rolan7]

Did the USA benefit, or did it suffer, when all those german and jewish rocket scientists came in the late 40s and early 50s?

Even if they dont get jobs, they still bring useful insights from their different experience base to the country. Kind of high-thinking, but still true.

Okay not following the conversation *at all* due to RL stuff, isn't that argument (well, statement implying implications) a little ridiculous because it's talking about an incredibly singular event in history?

Obscure video game reference:  In Galciv 2 OS/2, you could only research hyperdrive if your civilization was Good.  Because the insight came from a paralyzed man who would have been culled otherwise.
But is that realistic?

Is advancement ever locked behind - or even advanced by - idealism?  Naive or otherwise?

Did those scientists really join us because we were good, or because we were the victors and a prosperous state offering attractive packages?

[wierd]

Not the point.

Von Braun would have created rockets regardless, and literally worked laborers TO DEATH in germany to make his advances. He would have succeeded there just as well.

No, we gained that knowledge through immigration.

Again though, culture is itself a reason to permit immigration. Unless you want only a monoculture about what fun games you can play at birthdays. (Only cake and icecream kids-- White fascist approved activities only!! No pinatas!)

Exposure to foriegn nationals gives us new and interesting foods, new and interesting forms of art, and new and interesting cultural fixtures.

[smjjames]

Statistically, Japan is in "Oh shit, sweet mother of god, we are in serious SHIT!!" territory there. Historical numbers indicate imminent cultural collapse, but then again, old data is for a world with much higher mortality rates.

They at least see it coming and are trying to prepare for it. Unfortunately, Japan is one of the most insular countries in the world as far as immigration goes. Not that they won't take immigrants, they're just highly resistant to it. They're incredibly open to most everything else though.

[Reelya]

Yeah, the "WWII rocket scientists" argument isn't really one you can extend to regular immigration, except to say that you benefit from bringing people in with complex skills that your country lacks.

I think the Nazi rocket scientists signed up with America mainly because the alternative was to be tried as war criminals at Nuremberg. Those on the Russian side weren't even given that option.

Statistically, Japan is in "Oh shit, sweet mother of god, we are in serious SHIT!!" territory there. Historical numbers indicate imminent cultural collapse, but then again, old data is for a world with much higher mortality rates.

They at least see it coming and are trying to prepare for it. Unfortunately, Japan is one of the most insular countries in the world as far as immigration goes. Not that they won't take immigrants, they're just highly resistant to it. They're incredibly open to most everything else though.

Countries go through high-fertility, to low-fertility periods as the economy grows, basically they go from "men work/women have babies" to "both men and women work". And conventionally, this is seen as the "end game" of development.

But some demographers are saying there's evidence that there's another phase after that one: basically productivity becomes so high that women can choose whether to work or have babies again, and there's a big uptick in fertility rate again. See places like Sweden for example. In a post-automation future it might be that people find they've got more time to raise kids properly, they're not couples both with 60 hour a week jobs and tied down with massive bills.

[wierd]

many did not want to permit the choice, given the nature of the attrocities--as russia did. 

our government saw value in permitting it anyway.

this is still a bad example though, i admit.  the irish migrants from the potato famine are a better one. what skills did they bring? no really marketable ones.  But they made great pubs, and brought us interesting cultural elements. Our society is better for having absorbed them.

[Reelya]

The Irish came during the industrial revolution however, which involved massive sinks for unskilled labor. They did have marketable skills.

Although nice to have diversity for the sake of diversity, unskilled labor immigration doesn't really answer Vilanat's question. To which the answer is, countries want to import workers, especially if they have skills or abilities in things we're about to automate, because properly training people requires economies of scale, so it's not worth training locals to do those jobs.

[wierd]

and mexicans pick our produce.

[Reelya]

It makes economic sense to have Mexicans do that. It's seasonal, and if locals were tied up doing it, you'd have to pay them unemployment the rest of the time. So, just think if you want 100% American produce-pickers what are they going to do the rest of the year?

[wierd]

they also roof our houses, and fix our roads, work in packing plants, and a number of other places.  not all irish worked in factories. many became police officers, to the point it became a cliche.

[Grim Portent]

It makes economic sense to have Mexicans do that. It's seasonal, and if locals were tied up doing it, you'd have to pay them unemployment the rest of the time. So, just think if you want 100% American produce-pickers what are they going to do the rest of the year?

That explanation makes less sense than you think, because there's unemployed Americans who could be employed for a short time to pick crops rather than immigrant workers if there was enough infrastructure to transport them to and from the area affordably.

[wierd]

Not if you want to stay cost effective with automation, it isnt.

That mean paying a wage that is not livable. You cant do that to citizens.  That's why mexican produce pickers are a big controversy.  There isnt an automated way to pick strawberries because of how fragile the berries are.  But they have to sit on a shelf, with group pricing next to fruits that ARE mechanically harvested.