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Author Topic: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: T+0  (Read 1392243 times)

Lord Shonus

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10050 on: November 08, 2016, 12:11:45 pm »

I wish I could have voted Johnson in an effort to get the Libertarians over the 5% mark, as I would like them to be a better vector for ideas into the two major parties. Unfortunately, polls put Trump's margin of victory in this state at just within the likely margins of the polling error, meaning that I can't afford not to vote Clinton in an effort to flip a closer-than-expected vote.
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Codician

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10051 on: November 08, 2016, 12:12:42 pm »

I'm not saying that at all. Just that personally I would rather be warm at home instead of waiting in a line all night, especially when my vote won't make a difference.

You have said there's no point in voting and that it's better stay inside.

If that's not advocating for people not voting I don't know what is.

If I was saying, "Don't go vote" then I'd get you.

I'm just giving you my preference. It's the middle of winter and Donald Trump has massively lost.

The polls really haven't changed enough to make what I'm saying untrue.

Depends on what polls your reading. And no, even the rosiest polls for Hillary make your "The US is so far Democrat that it doesn't make any difference." bullshit.

It's not very nice to call it bullshit.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10052 on: November 08, 2016, 12:15:07 pm »

Calling bullshit bullshit may not be nice, but it is accurate.
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smjjames

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10053 on: November 08, 2016, 12:15:28 pm »

I'm not saying that at all. Just that personally I would rather be warm at home instead of waiting in a line all night, especially when my vote won't make a difference.

You have said there's no point in voting and that it's better stay inside.

If that's not advocating for people not voting I don't know what is.

If I was saying, "Don't go vote" then I'd get you.

I'm just giving you my preference. It's the middle of winter and Donald Trump has massively lost.

The polls really haven't changed enough to make what I'm saying untrue.

Depends on what polls your reading. And no, even the rosiest polls for Hillary make your "The US is so far Democrat that it doesn't make any difference." bullshit.

It's not very nice to call it bullshit.

Middle of? Winter hasn't even BEGUN. January would be in the middle of winter, not November.
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Criptfeind

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10054 on: November 08, 2016, 12:17:35 pm »

Giving your preference is fine, sure, especially when you don't geta vote anyway. But there's a difference between saying "I don't want to vote because it's cold and I figure I won't have that much of an impact" vs "There's not really much point in voting even if you are American. Makes just as sense to allow others to vote instead of leaving the house. Better to be safe and warm in the house than standing in a freezing cold line all night."

Sorry about the bullshit but I figured bullshit is more polite then "a lie perpetrated by ignorance or malice."
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sluissa

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10055 on: November 08, 2016, 12:18:17 pm »

I wish I could have voted Johnson in an effort to get the Libertarians over the 5% mark, as I would like them to be a better vector for ideas into the two major parties. Unfortunately, polls put Trump's margin of victory in this state at just within the likely margins of the polling error, meaning that I can't afford not to vote Clinton in an effort to flip a closer-than-expected vote.

I keep seeing that 5% mark thing, but I can't find any evidence for that anywhere else to find. Can someone give me a source on that 5% = public funding deal? The only thing I actually found kinda was bad news in that it said something along the lines of (but I might have misunderstood) that Obama signed a thing in 2014 that ended public funding for presidential campaigns.
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misko27

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10056 on: November 08, 2016, 12:23:18 pm »


So I'm on my break. Fun times. People poured into the polling place at 6:00 AM and they never really stopped. The line was around two corners last I checked. This is totally more than anything I've dealt with before. Just, breathtaking. I'm glad to be off my feet.

When things work out, as people leave they say to me "Oh, you know this was really good" and "You know, for how many people there are here this is very well-organized". When they don't, "This is terrible, this is the worst I've ever been to, you are all terrible, I'm writing your names down, etc". Most of the time its fine, but then you have those occasional people who are just ANGRY. Someone comes up to me before my break and complains about the NY Supreme Court Ballot. I've fielded a dozen complaints about that so far; the thing is that there is nine candidates for nine positions with the same name, meaning A) There are no actual choices, and B) The description says "Vote for nine of nine", which confuses people (my usual answer to "Should I put X" is "Yes" regardless of X). But this lady doesn't care; she's just mad that there aren't any Republicans. I tell her I don't decide what gets put on the ballot, but she ain't happy to hear it. Just as soon as things go wrong, certain types of people just get MAD, and you have to sit there and like... play dead, iunno. Like you are dealing with an angry dog, and if you look confrontational or scared they'll lash out at you. They are looking the for the first sign of opposition, and you just gotta not give it to them and help them along as soon as possible. Meanwhile my coordinater is a control freak who'd be up my ass about everything if the place wasn't so busy; but you still gotta watch it. She'll start lecturing about the Scanner "Wait here" sign not being precisely 5 feet away from some other thing.

Also two funny things. First, both Presidential candidates are listed as being from New York, so ha. The second thing, which I'm a little reluctant to say because it divulges info about my location, but I figure "eh, it's not near our house, and it's public info; who cares?": apparently Trump voted at the voting place where my sister worked.
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Codician

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10057 on: November 08, 2016, 12:25:01 pm »

Giving your preference is fine, sure, especially when you don't geta vote anyway. But there's a difference between saying "I don't want to vote because it's cold and I figure I won't have that much of an impact" vs "There's not really much point in voting even if you are American. Makes just as sense to allow others to vote instead of leaving the house. Better to be safe and warm in the house than standing in a freezing cold line all night."

Sorry about the bullshit but I figured bullshit is more polite then "a lie perpetrated by ignorance or malice."



I'm really not wrong, though.
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Criptfeind

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10058 on: November 08, 2016, 12:28:26 pm »

I wish I could have voted Johnson in an effort to get the Libertarians over the 5% mark, as I would like them to be a better vector for ideas into the two major parties. Unfortunately, polls put Trump's margin of victory in this state at just within the likely margins of the polling error, meaning that I can't afford not to vote Clinton in an effort to flip a closer-than-expected vote.

I keep seeing that 5% mark thing, but I can't find any evidence for that anywhere else to find. Can someone give me a source on that 5% = public funding deal? The only thing I actually found kinda was bad news in that it said something along the lines of (but I might have misunderstood) that Obama signed a thing in 2014 that ended public funding for presidential campaigns.

I found a thing on the federal election commissions website that defines a minor party as a party that previously got between 5% and 25% of the popular vote, and that impacts their eligibility and percentage that they get from general election funding.

Image snipped

I'm really not wrong, though.

This is not "The US is so far Democrat that it doesn't make any difference." though. This is saying Hillary is favored, although not outside the margin of error, to win the presidency. And it says nothing about the house or the senate.

And it's certainly not a reason to justify you trying to convince people not to vote.
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smjjames

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10059 on: November 08, 2016, 12:29:00 pm »

We already know you live in NYC anyway Misko :)

-snip-

Those, except for the last two, are NATIONAL polls, and polls have been wrong or off before.
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Frumple

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10060 on: November 08, 2016, 12:30:23 pm »

I wish I could have voted Johnson in an effort to get the Libertarians over the 5% mark, as I would like them to be a better vector for ideas into the two major parties. Unfortunately, polls put Trump's margin of victory in this state at just within the likely margins of the polling error, meaning that I can't afford not to vote Clinton in an effort to flip a closer-than-expected vote.

I keep seeing that 5% mark thing, but I can't find any evidence for that anywhere else to find. Can someone give me a source on that 5% = public funding deal? The only thing I actually found kinda was bad news in that it said something along the lines of (but I might have misunderstood) that Obama signed a thing in 2014 that ended public funding for presidential campaigns.
Obama cut off funding of presidential nomination conventions specifically, apparently. You can check here For the five percent thing, under general election funding. Five percent is the bottom threshold to qualify as a minor party so far as funding is concerned.

And ninja'd, bah.
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Codician

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10061 on: November 08, 2016, 12:31:22 pm »

-snip-

Those, except for the last two, are NATIONAL polls, and polls have been wrong or off before.

Polls were spot on last time and it's looking to be a landslide for Hillary.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10062 on: November 08, 2016, 12:31:38 pm »

I wish I could have voted Johnson in an effort to get the Libertarians over the 5% mark, as I would like them to be a better vector for ideas into the two major parties. Unfortunately, polls put Trump's margin of victory in this state at just within the likely margins of the polling error, meaning that I can't afford not to vote Clinton in an effort to flip a closer-than-expected vote.

I keep seeing that 5% mark thing, but I can't find any evidence for that anywhere else to find. Can someone give me a source on that 5% = public funding deal? The only thing I actually found kinda was bad news in that it said something along the lines of (but I might have misunderstood) that Obama signed a thing in 2014 that ended public funding for presidential campaigns.

According to the Federal Election Commision:

Quote
General Election Funding

The Presidential nominee of each major party may become eligible for a public grant of $20 million (plus a cost-of-living adjustment) for campaigning in the general election.7 To be eligible to receive the public funds, the candidate must limit spending to the amount of the grant and may not accept private contributions for the campaign. Private contributions may, however, be accepted for a special account maintained exclusively to pay for legal and accounting expenses associated with complying with the campaign finance law. These legal and accounting expenses are not subject to the expenditure limit.

In addition, candidates may spend up to $50,000 from their own personal funds. Such spending does not count against the expenditure limit.

Minor party candidates and new party candidates may become eligible for partial public funding of their general election campaigns. (A minor party candidate is the nominee of a party whose candidate received between 5 and 25 percent of the total popular vote in the preceding Presidential election. A new party candidate is the nominee of a party that is neither a major party nor a minor party.) The amount of public funding to which a minor party candidate is entitled is based on the ratio of the party's popular vote in the preceding Presidential election to the average popular vote of the two major party candidates in that election. A new party candidate receives partial public funding after the election if he/she receives 5 percent or more of the vote. The entitlement is based on the ratio of the new party candidate's popular vote in the current election to the average popular vote of the two major party candidates in the election.

Although minor and new party candidates may supplement public funds with private contributions and may exempt some fundraising costs from their expenditure limit, they are otherwise subject to the same spending limit and other requirements that apply to major party candidates.

What Obama ended in 2014 was public funding for the party primaries.
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Criptfeind

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10063 on: November 08, 2016, 12:34:17 pm »

Polls were spot on last time

No. They weren't.

Edit: They were closer then the margin of error that Trump needs to win the presidency, however, not by a huge amount, and in this election there's a much larger number of undecideds who could swing ether way.
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i2amroy

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #10064 on: November 08, 2016, 12:35:05 pm »

Polls were spot on last time and it's looking to be a landslide for Hillary.
Actually they were off by around 3 points on average in 2012, they just happened to be off in the favor of the favored candidate as opposed to against them. A 3 point error against the favored candidate would wipe off a third of the poll results on your list, and a 4 point error would wipe out 2/3rds of them.
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