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Author Topic: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: T+0  (Read 1412305 times)

Max™

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4755 on: September 26, 2016, 10:27:05 am »

That's the joke. :D I'm a compulsive spellchecker, it was actually difficult to do that, but it fit the joke too well.
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smjjames

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4756 on: September 26, 2016, 10:36:15 am »

Heh, yeah. Anyways, if Mark Cuban DOES sit in the audience, hopefully he keeps his taunting to twitter and not say stuff out loud because it's only going to look bad for him (and Clinton, but mostly him).

Also, apparently the podiums are different sizes for the candidates. I can see where that might come into play (Trump's a big guy, yes, but Clinton isn't a small woman either) and its supposedly for what the candidates are comfortable with. So, there's that as well. Though in the shots of the stage, the podiums don't look all that different, one might be slightly slimmer or something, but I couldn't tell from the further out shots. edit: Actually, they might be slightly different heights because a higher up podium would be more comfortable for Trump maybe.
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Starver

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4757 on: September 26, 2016, 10:39:40 am »

Simple experiment to cover several bases: Present two or three people for assessment, asking for 1 to 10 ratings. (A single measure might be best, given the complexity of the rest of the analysis, but there are other options if you have enough subjects to ask1.)

The two choices always present are Trump and Clinton. The third can be a global (for those asked) single third-party/independent candidate or a main Trump/Clinton rival, or else (with a large enough cadre) J Random Candidate sekected from amongst all those categories. And you present the two/three candidates in the two/six different orders. Because "Having already considered Trump and Clinton, how would you now rate Cruz?" would likely elicit a different result-per-person from "Having already considered Trump and Cruz, how would you now rate Clinton?", etc.

(Note that although dressed up as a simple poll, we're not too bothered about political preferences save that we get enough like-for-like tendencies to discover uplift or depression of opinions from the people of similar views but with switched/salted polls.  If we do have enough people to derive that partisan Trump voters rate Cruz higher, say, after asked about Clinton than before, whilst partisan Clintonites work differently with that but the same with Trump/Sanders, say, then that's a result.)

Not going to calculate the numbers you'd need to ask to get statistically significent results across each possibility, maybe stly because I've kept it open. Though anyone able to get a large enough study up prior to this precise question being moot is going to be an established national pollster who probably already is contacting as many people as possible, and doesn't want to complicate their current plans.


1 Namely that you do something like ask for rankings on "Trustworthiness, Capability, Experience, ..., Novelty,  Unpredictability, Self-Serving" for half (positive to negative, an arguable ordering that may need further discussion), but ask them in the opposite order (negative to positive) for the other half and see if the nature of the first questions has an observable effect upon the latter ones, also.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2016, 10:41:49 am by Starver »
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smjjames

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4758 on: September 26, 2016, 10:47:27 am »

Note that, as of right now, FiveThirtyEight has the odds at effectively a coin toss. 51.8% for Clinton, 48.2% for Trump.

Yep, everybody is showing and saying that they're tied right now, so, what happens in the debate could very well tip things one way or another, and literally anything could happen.
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nenjin

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4759 on: September 26, 2016, 11:17:40 am »

Literally anything? LITERALLY?

Because that'd be pretty sweet. I'd be hoping on Reagan crawling out of Hilary Clinton's stomach and vomiting a continuous stream of rotten babies on to the crowd.
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mainiac

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4760 on: September 26, 2016, 11:21:09 am »

Because when O'Malley left the race people dropped from considering three choices to two.

Okay I gotta admit I was not expecting O'Malley.

It's an interesting idea and food for thought, but how do you reconcile it with her approval among democrats long before anyone considered O'Malley as a Clinton-lite?

http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/PMCMS/nmpjy9z6uuo11n9p_sg7ia.png
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/192362/clinton-negatives-among-dems-sanders.aspx

If it was the O'Malley effect inflating her ratings, she wouldn't have consistently had ratings far higher then today back when nobody knew who O'Malley was.
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Rolan7

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4761 on: September 26, 2016, 11:38:21 am »

I'm concerned. What can Trump do that would cause voters to lose confidence?
He could try to run a serious campaign.
And/or not create enough absurd soundbites to keep the media's  "negative" attention on him.
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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4762 on: September 26, 2016, 11:40:53 am »

Because when O'Malley left the race people dropped from considering three choices to two.

Okay I gotta admit I was not expecting O'Malley.

It's an interesting idea and food for thought, but how do you reconcile it with her approval among democrats long before anyone considered O'Malley as a Clinton-lite?

http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/PMCMS/nmpjy9z6uuo11n9p_sg7ia.png
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/192362/clinton-negatives-among-dems-sanders.aspx

If it was the O'Malley effect inflating her ratings, she wouldn't have consistently had ratings far higher then today back when nobody knew who O'Malley was.

People know who O'Malley is?
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Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4763 on: September 26, 2016, 11:42:46 am »

Honestly you guys can't lose. Either Trump loses in which case you get the spectacle of Trump and his supporters imploding/exploding, and the first female President, or Trump wins in which case we get the spectacle of a Trump presidency.

*gets popcorn*

mainiac

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4764 on: September 26, 2016, 11:45:48 am »

we get the spectacle of a Trump presidency.

*gets popcorn*

That is in no way shape or form a win.  A public massacre is quite the spectacle.  Doesn't make it win.
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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"Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I will tell you what you value"
« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

smjjames

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4765 on: September 26, 2016, 11:48:53 am »

Being an immigrant who currently does not have citizenship, I can say for certainty that there's a strong chance here that I could very much lose a whole hell of a lot.

As long as you aren't illegal or are on an expired visa, I think you'd be fine.

Though I'd probably get out of Arizona.....
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mainiac

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4766 on: September 26, 2016, 11:59:38 am »

Because we all know that if there is anyone you can trust to keep on an even keel and not screw people over for no reason, it's Donald Trump...
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

Sheb

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4767 on: September 26, 2016, 01:28:12 pm »

So, what about rules for a debate drinking game?

Trump lies - Take half a sip
Trump says "wall" or "email" - Take a sip
Clinton says "Trump University" -take two sip
Trump interrupt clinton - take a sip
Hillary says she should be elected because she is a woman - Full glass.
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Rolepgeek

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4768 on: September 26, 2016, 01:30:14 pm »

Because we all know that if there is anyone you can trust to keep on an even keel and not screw people over for no reason, it's Donald Trump...
He always has a reason.

They're just only rarely ones we approve of.
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Max™

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American
« Reply #4769 on: September 26, 2016, 01:34:11 pm »

Because when O'Malley left the race people dropped from considering three choices to two.

Okay I gotta admit I was not expecting O'Malley.

It's an interesting idea and food for thought, but how do you reconcile it with her approval among democrats long before anyone considered O'Malley as a Clinton-lite?

http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/PMCMS/nmpjy9z6uuo11n9p_sg7ia.png
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/192362/clinton-negatives-among-dems-sanders.aspx

If it was the O'Malley effect inflating her ratings, she wouldn't have consistently had ratings far higher then today back when nobody knew who O'Malley was.

People know who O'Malley is?
I've actually been following this election cycle fairly regularly, and I'm not kidding when I say I have no fucking clue who O'Malley is.

I could google it, but I think it is funnier to leave it this way.
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