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Author Topic: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: T+0  (Read 1423092 times)

martinuzz

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3780 on: September 09, 2016, 04:08:20 am »

Convert to scientology, and for a mere 5000$ we wil help you find the answer to that question.
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mainiac

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3781 on: September 09, 2016, 04:17:06 am »

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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3782 on: September 09, 2016, 04:23:38 am »

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3783 on: September 09, 2016, 05:47:28 am »

Checkmate!
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mainiac

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3784 on: September 09, 2016, 06:05:30 am »

https://mobile.twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/773639656592334853

For comparison Obama is about 15% more popular with 18-29 then all adults. If you held the 30+ rate at 39% and changed the young approval of Clinton to match the Obama spread her approval disapproval would be about 44%-50%.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 06:27:39 am by mainiac »
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RedKing

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3785 on: September 09, 2016, 12:43:45 pm »

what do I do

Blame Redking.
At least you admit that's your default setting.  :P


https://mobile.twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/773639656592334853

For comparison Obama is about 15% more popular with 18-29 then all adults. If you held the 30+ rate at 39% and changed the young approval of Clinton to match the Obama spread her approval disapproval would be about 44%-50%.
Not really sure what the point of this is. Either,

1: "This is all your fault, young people! Why don't you like Clinton-senpai as much as you do Obama-kun? WHYYY?"
2: "Even if young people like Clinton as much as they like Obama....she'd still be viewed negatively overall."

Neither of those seem like points you'd be likely to make.  ???




EDIT: In non-campaign news, Congress keeps blocking emergency funding to fight Zika, because Planned Parenthood is EVUL and #ConfederateDeadMatter.

The TL;DR explanation: Republicans inserted language that would block contraceptive funding for Planned Parenthood, and also language to allow Confederate flags to be displayed in national military cemetaries, into the Zika funding bill. Democrats said, "Wait, WTF? Get the fuck outta here with that shit" and they've been at a stalemate. Right-wing sources are, of course, casting this as "Democrats block vital Zika funding to protect evil Planned Parenthood and because they hate Southern heritage".  ::)

Hopefully, as the article above indicates, McConnell may be on the verge of caving and pulling that shit out so the funding can get a clean vote. Unfortunately, the House is unlikely to compromise.

On the upside, this could swing Florida hard to the Dem column, if Zika spreads and the Republicans are seen as sacrificing Floridians' health on the altar of ideology. Unfortunately, media polarization and cognitive dissonance being what it is, Republicans in Florida will just find a way to blame this on the Democrats.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 12:53:35 pm by RedKing »
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mainiac

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3786 on: September 09, 2016, 12:45:35 pm »

I'm just noting the landscape of the race.  Clinton is about where we would expect her to be with voters over 30.  She is waaaaaaaay the fuck behind with voters under 30.

Which is Bernies fault mostly.

This chart is a little outdated but lets you see the trend:


There was a bump among 30-49 year olds after the Bengazi hearing that went away.  Other then that nobody has changed their minds except that young voters have decided she is the anti-christ.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 12:59:19 pm by mainiac »
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RedKing

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3787 on: September 09, 2016, 01:02:08 pm »

Can't really argue with that. I'd like to, but the numbers do bear out that she was a fair bit more popular with the youth segment prior to the primaries.

For my part, I was not in favor of her running even before she announced (and I have posts in the old Ameripol forum to prove it). And my reasons for that have largely been borne out -- too much baggage, too hawkish, too many people for whom she is an utter non-starter, to the point that they would countenance DONALD FUCKING TRUMP as a more palatable alternative.

I still maintain that if almost anyone else in the Democratic Party had gotten the nomination, we'd be talking about the prospect of a 40+ state sweep in November.
And if a mainstream Republican had won the nomination, we'd be talking about what kind of Congress President Bush/Kasich/Rubio is going to have to work with.
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mainiac

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3788 on: September 09, 2016, 01:10:13 pm »

So I couldn't get the crosstabs for that poll without paying money to gallup (and as a millennial I dont pay for things without pokemon on them).  I found crosstabs for this recent poll which seems to say the exact opposite.  Clinton has higher approval rating with under 30 then with 45-65 or 65+ in that one.  Also it's interesting to see that half of voters over 45 hate her guts but only 8% are somewhat against her.  This poll also tended to be one of the better for her approval-wise (she was -10% in this one compared to -20% in the gallup one while the huffington average has her -14%).

Probably an example of trying to read too far into the crosstabs.  If a crosstab only has a couple hundred voters the margin of error can be way bigger then the trend.

Although if you do go to page 20 of the Economist Poll you can see that young voters are mostly voting against Trump while old voters are mostly voting for clinton which is interesting.  But then again I just got burned by staring at crosstabs...

Although there are some nuggets of gold.  If you got to page 27 you can see that there were 4 people in this poll who voted Trump in the primaries and are voting because they like Clinton (rather then having changed to being against Trump).

Ooooh the adjectives are fun.  She is a smart corrupt incapable patriot according to young people.

Also if you do the same comparison to Obama in the Economist poll you can see that she is 12% behind Obama overall but 27% behind him with under 30 voters.  So even if young people dont hate her in that poll it is a pretty big deficit compared to the usual democratic coalition among young people.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 01:28:07 pm by mainiac »
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RedKing

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3789 on: September 09, 2016, 01:27:58 pm »

I can sort of see that.

Young people (for the most part) are just appalled by Trump. Older folks, even older Democrats, can see themselves agreeing with at least some of his stances, like trade protectionism. Millennials really haven't had to live through outsourcing/offshoring the way GenX and Baby Boomers have. Hell, even I get tempted at times by the siren song of "bring the jobs back". But I know that my line of work at least, is affected as much or more by H1Bs as by offshoring. And I also recognize that by and large, the jobs that have been offshored aren't coming back. And forbidding US companies from using offshore backoffice IT would utterly cripple them in the short-term (and never pass Congress). But for young voters, the protectionism thing just seems outdated and close-minded.

But people 30+ are also old enough to remember Bill Clinton and the economic boom of the 1990's. That's a strong draw, even if much of that boom had more to do with the rise of the Internet and other structural factors, and less to do with Presidential policy. Millennials never got to take part in that boom. They've only known the post-bubble economy, wherein we've had two major recessions since 2000, and they've graduated college with tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt, and finding that the only available jobs are retail or bottom-feeder gigs at giant corporations. So the subconscious link of Clinton=$$$$ isn't there.

So yeah, the idea that young people are voting against Trump, while older people are voting for Clinton sounds right to me.

EDIT: I don't think I'd ever use "incapable" with Hillary. The rest, yeah I'm in agreement.  :P



EDIT #2: I think immigration is another area where age perspective explains a lot. Millenials in many parts of the country have always grown up with a fair number of Hispanic neighbors, friends, coworkers, the guy who runs their favorite taco truck, etc. So it just seems normal, and they don't see what the big deal is.

Older people in many places outside the Southwest remember a time when Hispanics were something of a rarity. When I was a kid, you could count the number of Mexican restaurants in town (and this was a city of 100,000+) on one hand. There were three kinds of "ethnic" food available -- Italian, Mexican and Chinese. Bilingual signs just weren't a thing, even at the Mexican restaurants. Now, they're so commonplace I don't even notice them. And to Anglocentric whites (which is a lot of people), that seems like a demographic/cultural threat, the same as the Yellow Peril. There's the appearance at least, of less cultural assimilation compared to say, the 1970s and 1980s. So even if they dislike Trump personally, they do see some value to clamping down on immigration.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 01:52:55 pm by RedKing »
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mainiac

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3790 on: September 09, 2016, 01:29:11 pm »

But for young voters, the protectionism thing just seems outdated and close-minded.

IDK man, the democratic convention seems to disagree with that a lot.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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RedKing

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3791 on: September 09, 2016, 01:55:10 pm »

But for young voters, the protectionism thing just seems outdated and close-minded.

IDK man, the democratic convention seems to disagree with that a lot.
I feel like Bernie's trade protectionism came out of a different source though -- anticorporatism as opposed to nationalist sentiment. Young people aren't keen on nationalism (after all, that's what those evil Nazis were all about, right?) but they're totally down with hating on Big Whatever. And they're old enough to remember the 2008 collapse and all the anger against Wall Street (most of it well-earned).
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Frumple

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3792 on: September 09, 2016, 02:00:06 pm »

Eh... still protectionism, yeh? Trump actually had a fair bit of the same line, anyway, iirc. The anti-corp thing. Pretty sure he flipped on it, but it was a thing. Sorta'. About as much as anything that's came out the guy.
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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3793 on: September 09, 2016, 02:03:02 pm »

Anecdotally, I've seen a lot of anger at things like the TPP and NAFTA due to the harmful effects those agreements have on various groups (in and out of the US) rather then traditional "We need to protect American Jobs!" argument. This is mostly based on the various FB articles I've seen my younger friends share around, so I don't know how widespread it is.
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mainiac

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3794 on: September 09, 2016, 02:20:00 pm »

There is some George Orwell quote I can't find where he is snarking about the British Labour Party being opposed to the existence of an indian textile industry... even as indian independence was part of their campaign platform.  Maybe I dreamed it up cuz it sounds like something he would say?
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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