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[sluissa]

I like how this nuclear trump thing is spreading around as fact despite being unverified and denied at every step beyond the initial mention.

This must be how mainiac sees things.

Again, vote third party. Not as crazy as they're made to seem

[Dorsidwarf]

I like how this nuclear trump thing is spreading around as fact despite being unverified and denied at every step beyond the initial mention.

This must be how mainiac sees things.

Again, vote third party. Not as crazy as they're made to seem

Vote Third Party! Every Vote Wasted! Trump In Power Not So Bad If You Can Smugly Wear " Voted Green" Badge!

[Reelya]

I like how this nuclear trump thing is spreading around as fact despite being unverified and denied at every step beyond the initial mention.

This must be how mainiac sees things.

Again, vote third party. Not as crazy as they're made to seem

The unverified stuff is almost exactly the same as what he's said on the record, however.

In March, Trump told the MSNBC he didn’t understand the reluctance to deploy nuclear weapons: “Then why are we making them? Why do we make them?”.

[smjjames]

I like how this nuclear trump thing is spreading around as fact despite being unverified and denied at every step beyond the initial mention.

This must be how mainiac sees things.

Again, vote third party. Not as crazy as they're made to seem

It's not just that specific instance about asking 'why can't we just use nukes?', it's his ENTIRE fast and loose stance on nukes.

The libertarian party looks good as a protest vote.

I like how this nuclear trump thing is spreading around as fact despite being unverified and denied at every step beyond the initial mention.

This must be how mainiac sees things.

Again, vote third party. Not as crazy as they're made to seem

Vote Third Party! Every Vote Wasted! Trump In Power Not So Bad If You Can Smugly Wear " Voted Green" Badge!

Yeah well, theres a new CNN poll showing Clinton up by 9 when in a three way race with the Libertarian ticket. Really though, I'd like to see a poll with that and the Green party.

[smjjames]

Also, someone needs to give trump a serious question about how he would use nukes and whether he would use them if he got pissed off by some leader.

Then again, he'd probably just lie and his base wouldn't give a damn either way. edit: Or maybe ask him what he thinks the international response would probably be if he used a nuke.

[mainiac]

This must be how mainiac sees things.

Holy shit. My mom came into my room to bring me a plate of chicken nuggets and I literally screamed at her and hit the plate of chicken nuggets out of her hand. She started yelling and swearing at me and I slammed the door on her. I’m so distressed right now I don’t know what to do. I didn’t mean to do that to my mom but I’m literally in shock from the results tonight. I feel like I’m going to explode. Why the fucking fuck is sluissa trying to steal my saltlord niche? This can’t be happening. I’m having a fucking breakdown. I don’t want to believe the world is so corrupt. I want a future to believe in. I want Toady to come into this thread and lock everything again. I cannot fucking deal with this right now. It wasn’t supposed to be like this, I thought the internet was shitting on Trump? This is so fucked.

Yeah well, theres a new CNN poll showing Clinton up by 9 when in a three way race with the Libertarian ticket. Really though, I'd like to see a poll with that and the Green party.

The Green party probably wouldn't change things a lot because they have nominated a spectacularly bad candidate.  I mean a lot of leftists hate Nadar for playing spoiler but he did have actual accomplishments as a consumer advocate.  Jill Stein is less accomplished and has much more extreme views.

Johnson on the other hand was a governor and it makes sense where his natural constituency is.  If you offered me 1000-1 odds on him being the next president I'd bet on him. 

[Egan_BW]

Don't worry Mainiac, you'll always be The One And Only SaltLORD in my heart.

The Green party probably wouldn't change things a lot because they have nominated a spectacularly bad candidate.  I mean a lot of leftists hate Nadar for playing spoiler but he did have actual accomplishments as a consumer advocate.  Jill Stein is less accomplished and has much more extreme views.

Johnson on the other hand was a governor and it makes sense where his natural constituency is.  If you offered me 1000-1 odds on him being the next president I'd bet on him. 

I bet you 1/3 because that's how probability works.

[mainiac]

Yes either trump or Clinton or Johnson. That is 3 possibilities.

[Orange Wizard]

There's no way Johnson is going to win, short of alien mind-control lasers or something.

[Egan_BW]

But wait, more people a running than that! And lots of people do write-ins, so my totally accurate prediction is 2000 possible candidates. Which means that the chances of trump winning are exactly 1/2000, so, crisis averted there.

[mainiac]

Johnson has has a path. He needs at least one electoral vote and for neither Clinton or trump to get 270. Then the house picks between the three. The house will be Republican probably

[MrRoboto75]

Yes either trump or Clinton or Johnson. That is 3 possibilities.

Writing in Vermin Supreme on the ballot come november.

[Culise]

Johnson has has a path. He needs at least one electoral vote and for neither Clinton or trump to get 270. Then the house picks between the three. The house will be Republican probably

Fun fact: if a Republican-dominated House itself deadlocks due to a party break between Trump and Johnson, and none of the three candidates can get an absolute majority of the state delegation votes, we end up with whichever Vice President was successfully elected as an acting president until the House gets its act together.  So, for those people who wanted President Kaine...

[Strife26]

This is making me think of all my hopes for a contested convention this year. Please refrain from shattering them later, because I'm pretty sure that the only election shenanigans are going to be a few examples of iffyness that are claimed to be direct election rigging.

[mainiac]

A deadlock in the house is much less likely then a Johnson presidency.  Right now the republicans have a majority of congresspeople from 32 of the states.  A deadlock is very unlikely unless the democrats take or tie the republicans in seven of those.  That would require democrats picking up a large number of congressional seats across the country.  Looking at this (http://www.270towin.com/2016-house-election/) I'd say the easiest path would be...

Nevada 3rd or 4th (winning either of these two democratic leaning races would get them to a tie)
Iowa 1st (tossup race gets them to a tie)
Colorado 4th (tossup race gets them to a majority)
Wisconsin 8th (tossup race gets them to a tie)
Arizona 2nd (republican leaning race gets them to a majority)
Michigan 1st and 7th (winning this tossup race and republican leaning race would get them to a tie)
Montana (safe republican seat gets them to a majority)

What this basically boils down to is democrats would need to run the tables, winning all over the country in places where they should be the underdogs.  This would require a democratic wave year.  And if there is a democratic wave year, Clinton is going to easily win 270 electoral college votes unless she is found in bed with a live boy and a dead girl and they both turn out to be Goldman Sachs lobbyists who worked in Benghazi.

The Johnson presidency on the other hand does require three unlikely things.  One is that neither Clinton nor Trump wins.  538 has the current odds of that at .4% in the polls only forecast.  Two is that Johnson gets an electoral vote.  The odds of that are 3.5%.  Both of those happening might seem like a long shot but keep in mind that a deadlock will probably only happen because Johnson is winning votes.  So these aren't independent probabilities, they intersect a lot, probably something like .3% of the time.  Finally the third is that Johnson can convince house republicans that he is a better choice then Trump.  That might seem unlikely but keep in mind that we are talking about a conditional probability predicated on Johnson suddenly catching on fire and being really popular.  So all that happening is really unlikely but I'd still say more then 1 in 1000...