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[Frumple]

Well, if it was an across the board tax, and imports stayed steady in value (hahaha), it could cover most proposed costs inside of a year (310-ish billion imports last year or the year before or somethin', lower estimates for the cost of a wall seem to be in the 15-ish billion range, more likely all told to be somewhere 1.5-3x that or better). So at least if it fails in all basic senses of diplomacy and trade economics, it's a proposal managing to stick a number in a calculator and multiply it by .2.

... for what it's worth, the same funds would apparently be able to build a two lane road more or less from seattle to miami. Puts things into perspective, that.

E: Also, I totally just realized the possibility of all this shit pushing mexico's government into actual straight up collusion with the cartels. It would be an amazing sort of fucked up if the civil war we've been largely enabling we also manage to cause to conclude in the favor of the side we really don't like. Pretty sure it's not a very large possibility, but... still.
_{E2: And now I'm imaging a diplomacy check that involves the words, "exploding critical failure rolls".}

[smjjames]

Here's some other bits of information:

40% of a Mexican import is American: http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/26/news/economy/mexico-united-states-inputs-40/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

Here it mentions that over 80% of Mexican exports go to... guess where? The US: http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/26/news/economy/trump-mexican-peso/index.html?iid=hp-toplead-dom

I'll note that he hasn't even started (as far as we can tell) going through diplomatic routes and negotiating from there. I don't know if Trump thinks what he is doing is negotiation, but it certainly isn't.

Well, if it was an across the board tax, and imports stayed steady in value (hahaha), it could cover most proposed costs inside of a year (310-ish billion imports last year or the year before or somethin', lower estimates for the cost of a wall seem to be in the 15-ish billion range, more likely all told to be somewhere 1.5-3x that or better). So at least if it fails in all basic senses of diplomacy and trade economics, it's a proposal managing to stick a number in a calculator and multiply it by .2.

... for what it's worth, the same funds would apparently be able to build a two lane road more or less from seattle to miami. Puts things into perspective, that.

Is that including all of the work that would have to be done in preparing for the road itself? You can't really just plop down asphalt. But yeah, it does bring it into perspective.

E: Also, I totally just realized the possibility of all this shit pushing mexico's government into actual straight up collusion with the cartels. It would be an amazing sort of fucked up if the civil war we've been largely enabling we also manage to cause to conclude in the favor of the side we really don't like. Pretty sure it's not a very large possibility, but... still.

Economic problems can certainly destabilize a country undergoing economic collapse and the government itself is vulnerable.

If things did happen that way, we'd possibly be, *ahem*, forced, to intervene.

[Sergarr]

Well this probably wasn't intended:

Trump signs executive order stripping non-citizens of privacy rights
The six month-old Data Shield agreement between the US and EU is now in jeopardy.

With a stroke of his pen, the president just potentially invalidated a transcontinental data flow agreement between the US and EU which took years to negotiate.
...
More than 1,500 companies including Apple, Google and Microsoft had agreed to abide by the Data Shield agreement, which requires the US Department of Commerce to ensure that American companies are operating in compliance.

Citizens of EU may have to soon find alternatives to Google.

[martinuzz]

Citizens of EU may have to soon find alternatives to Google.

Google might soon have to find an alternative to Europe. I believe a significant percentage of their main servers is based in the EU, mostly in the Netherlands (which is were the transatlantic cable connections make landfall). Not to mention the tax evasion base they have here. Orwait. much better still. Google could just move out of the US and settle in the EU completely. Much more friendly investment climate 

Hell - why doesn't the entire agricultural sector of the US move to Europe as well? We have plenty of immigrants for them.
 

[Baffler]

E: Also, I totally just realized the possibility of all this shit pushing mexico's government into actual straight up collusion with the cartels. It would be an amazing sort of fucked up if the civil war we've been largely enabling we also manage to cause to conclude in the favor of the side we really don't like. Pretty sure it's not a very large possibility, but... still.

Economic problems can certainly destabilize a country undergoing economic collapse and the government itself is vulnerable.

If things did happen that way, we'd possibly be, *ahem*, forced, to intervene.

You say that like organized crime hasn't been causing widespread corruption and violence there for the better part of a decade. They're right where they want to be.

[smjjames]

Hm, here: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-tax-mexican-imports-pay-for-border-wall-234239 , it says that Trump said at the Philadelphia retreat:

"If you tax that $50 billion at 20 percent of imports — which is by the way a practice that 160 other countries do — right now our country’s policy is to tax exports and let imports flow freely in, which is ridiculous. By doing it that we can do $10 billion a year and easily pay for the wall just through that mechanism alone. That’s really going to provide the funding.”"

fakeedit: I just noticed that they typoed 'the' as 'teh' wall, seems like an ironic typo.

which is by the way a practice that 160 other countries do

I wonder how true that actually is because I read somewhere that Spicer said that most major countries don't do that kind of thing. edit: Oh, it's my own misreading, Spicer said that we're about the only major country that doesn't do that kind of thing.

[Frumple]

Is that including all of the work that would have to be done in preparing for the road itself?

Yeh. What it doesn't is cost of acquiring the land, but neither does any of the wall estimates I've noticed. It costs less to build a mile of two-lane nowadays than it does a mile of the proposed wall. We've gotten pretty efficient at road laying (at least when corruption doesn't get in the way, anyway), really.

... also noticed while poking figures that we're also pretty efficient at wall building, heh. Even if the thing does go through, don't expect it to generate many jobs :V

[MorleyDev]

Google could just move out of the US and settle in the EU completely. Much more friendly investment climate 

Ooi, no *pushes back with stick* The UK tech companies already called dibs on this after Brexit. Get in line!

Yes I'm kidding. Though, the EU could pull a double whammy and move to consume the tech and finance landscape something fierce here. Berlin has been trying to become the next London for a long time, and it's tech community has a lot of strength to it. I could totally see them going for the throats of London and Silicon Valley simultaneously.

[smjjames]

Is what Trump's trying to do called a value added tax? Because I found http://www.uscib.org/valueadded-taxes-vat-ud-1676/. A google attempt got mostly news, but I also found a Politifact analysis from back in June on the effects of such tariffs: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/jun/21/donald-trump-has-floated-big-tariffs-what-could-im/

[Frumple]

VAT's one of the things that can be involved, at the least. Import tax is generally called a tariff or duty, though, so far as I can recall. Forget exactly how VATs fit in there.

That said, re: that last post of yours, smj, it's probably worth noting that saying we let imports flow freely is a flat lie. Also, about the best data on average tariff rates (i.e. import tax) that's not behind a registration wall that I've found in a few minutes of looking is this. If you take that at face value, the number of countries that have a 20% or higher tariff rate is... three. The Bahamas, Tunisia, and Iran. Now, I know, I know. It's about 1/53rd the stated amount. But we're in high company! _{I'll be entirely honest, I don't even know what continent tunisia is on}

[smjjames]

I wasn't agreeing or thinking that as far as imports flowing freely, there are regulations and stuff for literally EVERYTHING that comes into the US, and I guess I wasn't looking for the right thing.

So, yeah, Trump is an outright lie, and EDITWHILETYPING: Apparently the WH walked it back. Really not a very good way to govern doing it that way.....

[Frumple]

... though actually, it just occurred to me to check how many countries exist. The answer is 195, 196 if you count taiwan. So... all of 35-ish countries don't. Do things like he said.

Don't question it folks, some facts are more facty than others.

[LoSboccacc]

E: Also, I totally just realized the possibility of all this shit pushing mexico's government into actual straight up collusion with the cartels. It would be an amazing sort of fucked up if the civil war we've been largely enabling we also manage to cause to conclude in the favor of the side we really don't like. Pretty sure it's not a very large possibility, but... still.

Economic problems can certainly destabilize a country undergoing economic collapse and the government itself is vulnerable.

If things did happen that way, we'd possibly be, *ahem*, forced, to intervene.

You say that like organized crime hasn't been causing widespread corruption and violence there for the better part of a decade. They're right where they want to be.

scenario: the border manages to cut down smuggling.

let me tell you what happen when the cartels money flow stops. first phase, it will tip balance of power. large cartel might not be able to keep financing their operation, smaller cartel might find with some routes still working and will have to defend them and in general everyone will need to wrestle a larger slice of a smaller pie, or die. cue widespread shootouts between factions, splintering of cartels, all that stuff.

those who remain will be left in control of a smaller operation, less competition, less emerging competition since it's less profitable to run a route. that will free up lot of assets. that money will be invested, because those people aren't stupid and bloodthirsty, not in the higher echelon at least. and will be invested on the strongest economy, buying legitimate business left and right. pumping money in those business will cause a competitiveness drop of whole sectors, as they need not to be profitable and will be run like your average laundry operation, except on larger scale and working like a legit business under most aspect but financials.

entire segments will become unprofitable for legitimate business and competition will wither, leaving cartels in control of large conglomerate, and that's where real problem starts. normal people will be unemployed unless working there, creating a strong leverage on the employees, driving down wages, working ethics, working safety, etc. once a critical mass is reached, connivance will take place and things will become more overt to the point everyone knows but, as every worker is potentially an accomplice due to knowing, noone ever wants to talks. at this point common people trying to snitch would be the most likely to float up dead.

this all sounds like a 10 dollar thrift store fiction right? except this is what happened last 20 years in Italy when local resources dried up. you can find plenty references around, you might want to start there

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/07/face-mafia-italy-160707105425997.html
http://www.ibtimes.com/welcome-european-mafia-union-how-italian-mob-swallowing-europe-1619110

and work back. of course america is a big, big place so it will never be so widespread to swallow sectors whole like construction and trash management here, but just building a wall is not gonna stop the money flow, whether it actually stop the drug flow (and I bet it wont)

[smjjames]

There actually were problems with The Mob (organized crime in general) decades ago, in the 60's and 70's and 80's, but we've got that under control now.

It'd be a much more dangerous situation for Mexico because the cartels are a problem there.

[Frumple]

... there's not even the most remote of needs to bet on that last bit, though. A physical wall that actually worked as willingly hallucinated intended would have a fair degree of impact on drug flow, but drugs come into this country from pretty much all directions. It'd stop a fraction for some period of time, and then they'd start routing through other areas and you'd be back to square one except now it's been redistributed to other entry points.