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[MetalSlimeHunt]

The tendency of people to believe that the best way of fixing things is to let them get worse is perhaps the most counter-intuitive piece of madness ever produced by politics.

There is no letting, at this point. Trump is going to be President. Take the scenario that is reality and assess what may be gained from it. Only once you know your goal do you know your angle. As for getting better, historical data clearly demonstrates that the party in power almost always loses confidence while the party out of power almost always gains it. Right now, the Republicans have power and a low confidence barrier. Do the math.

If a large number of people voted for Trump, then I refuse to believe that such madness as you suggest is possible.

A. In relative terms, not a lot of people voted for Trump. He would have been creamed by any other opponent and had so many gates to lose to Clinton he should be thanking whatever dark powers he consorts with that none of them opened.

The question isn't Trump's popularity, it's Clinton's unpopularity. Trump got votes because he had an R next to his name, he got votes from people who wanted to scapegoat others, and of course he got votes for the same reason Obama got votes: he was more exciting. Let this be a lesson to the party not to push obviously connected people like Clinton.

Or maybe Trump will just let them do whatever they want, leading to it becoming far more entrenched than it was previously. You know, what happened under Bush. For eight years. And made things the worst they've ever been. For another four years.

That isn't what happened under Bush. Bush aided, abetted, and used the security state. It was Obama who curbed some of its more unpopular excesses, but also Obama who did most of the entrenching.

Trump is in a bad position. Think of all the careful balancing Obama did to retain his popularity and consider that Trump isn't going to be able to manage the same. And that Trump's starting position is a full thirty points below Obama. Like, holy shit. In political trend terms, I feel sorry for the Republicans. They've got the government today, sure. But the next reckoning is only ever one enduring controversy away.

When Bush went down, the Republicans went down hard with him. 2008 was a while ago, and I don't think people remember that very clearly. Many even within the GOP are already alienated from Trump in the same way that they were with Bush during the popularity collapse. And so we have the clear opportunity to make this into a good thing. Ensure that people do not forget everything and anything that is associated with Trump, so that when he fails it all fails with him.

Trump does drone strikes, they have to go. Trump wiretaps, it has to go. Trump abuses the electoral system, it has to be reformed. Given Trump's amazing ability to blunder into everything he should know better than to stick his nose in, the possibilities are only limited by what he ends up doing.

Just consider the possibility that Trump can be easily used by people who know how to manipulate him, and perhaps you will understand the sum of all my fears.

I'm not really concerned about that. Weak presidents being manipulated is par for the course. Trump represents a great opportunity because he is politically weak but personally ornery. This conflict will arise, mark my words. He won't be able to gain much influence, but he'll spend just as much time using the power of his office beating down those close to him for attempting manipulation as he would those opposed to him from afar. Maybe more, really.

Trump's not a supervillain, he's a guy who gets high on his own power. The people who will inevitably try to use him of course all have their own agendas. It's more of a clusterfuck than you believe it is, and keeping that in mind will serve greatly.

[Neonivek]

I wonder how long it will take before Trump reinstitutionalizes torture...

He did say he wanted to do it... (as well as ignore several other things in the Geneva convention... but he never said what those were)

[MetalSlimeHunt]

He says a lot of things, and for no one is that statement more true.

Besides, torture is already allowed, just in ways that aren't formally considered torture. The true "no limits, rape and mutilate captives until they tell us what we want to hear" form that most people probably consider "allowing torture" to be seems unlikely. Many within the relevant organizations already are committed to more effective forms of information gathering.

It's possible that Trump will bring back waterboarding, but I think it's more likely that he'll maintain the status quo and focus on other matters, if only for the wide range of things he seems to advocate more frequently.

[smjjames]

Still, it remains to be seen if the Democrats learn from their mistakes and have a turnaround, or don't and lose more. Also, the opposition party to the presidency generally, and historically, wins in the midterms. So, they have that pendulum to their advantage. The 2018 map, not so much.

And yeah, the post election bounce did rake effect, but instead of positive, it's kind of like water, neutral, though slightly base.

[Neonivek]

Still, it remains to be seen if the Democrats learn from their mistakes and have a turnaround, or don't and lose more. Also, the opposition party to the presidency generally, and historically, wins in the midterms. So, they have that pendulum to their advantage. The 2018 map, not so much.

Unless Trump calls martial law

But I am expecting that before the next election honestly.

[smjjames]

Has a president ever called for martial law? Lincolin might have done it a bit during the civil war, but still.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

"Martial law" isn't really a clear concept for America. If we mean the literal form of military administration, that only took place in the former CSA during reconstruction. However, as the military also remained ultimately under the President, technically it was a military action ordered by the civil government.

There has been, to my knowledge, no formal "suspension of the Constitution" action at any point. Only the rain of attempts, with various success, to gain exceptions to absolute constitutional rights for whatever reason.

[Neonivek]

A president has called martial law twice.

And the government has been... overturned... once in a sort of pseudo-martial-law once.

Typically Martial law is called in response to disasters or similar. It has only been used for... unscrupulous means once... And violations occurring during martial law rarely happen (but they do).

Though a common element seems to be that Martial Law isn't there as a means to "control the populous" (except... Once) so to speak but rather to allow the military to protect citizens with the ability to make arrests, command them to move, and handle emergencies. When the emergency passes and there are no issues you are meant to end it.

The best case of martial law was an earthquake... People were so civil and there were so little problems that it was only a few days before martial law was called off.

[smjjames]

A president has called martial law twice.

And the government has been... overturned... once in a sort of pseudo-martial-law once.

Typically Martial law is called in response to disasters or similar. It has only been used for... unscrupulous means once... And violations occurring during martial law rarely happen (but they do).

Sources on what you're talking about? With it being called twice and overturned in a pseudo-martial law kind of thing?

[Neonivek]

Wikipedia but let me make things clear

the ONE time a president called martial law was during the American Civil War...

Another time the president wasn't calling martial law over the entire country. It was in one area and it was because he sent federal troops.

And the Pseudo sort of kind of... not really... Was the American revolution. Which kind of but doesn't really count.

[smjjames]

Oh yeah, the Continential Congress and the interim government during the Revolutionary War.

[Neonivek]

I want to believe that if President Trump did declare martial law in order to subvert the will of the people... That no one would support him, his order would be ignored by the military, and he would get impeached almost immediately.

[Reelya]

I don't think formal martial law would even be necessary. Remember, Trump won't be saying "crack down on all Americans", he'll be inciting divisions between whites and hispanics, whites and blacks, christians and muslims.

How you do this sort of thing is that you creep it in after big incidents, a few more police powers here and there, funnel more budget and weapons into organizations not covered by the Posse Comitatus Act rather than the US Army. Build up a patchwork alliance of police organizations, border patrol and other right-wing law enforcement types, all armed to the gills with APCs, riot armor and automatic weapons, even if they're not counted as "the army".

I just got a chuckle imagining Trump asking about where all the "FEMA camps" are so he can stick mexicans and muslims in them - after all, might as well use all those FEMA camps for a good cause - then not being convinced when his advisors point out that there are no FEMA camps.
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/donald-trump-appeals-to-the-paranoid-fantasies-of-the-fema-camps-crowd/
http://beforeitsnews.com/prophecy/2016/11/obamahillary-clintonjoe-biden-run-fema-camps-full-of-people-by-christmas-donald-trump-will-not-make-it-to-inauguration-day-2485644.html

[Dorsidwarf]

Holy shit that second link.

My brain is leaking out of my ears.

edit: Even the conspiracy nuts are giving it a pasting for being lunacy in the comments ahaha

[martinuzz]

Winner of the Nobel prize for Literature, and professor in African literature at Harvard, Yale, Cornell and New York universities, Wole Soyinka, had promised to tear up his greencard when Trump would win. He has indeed done so, and returned to Nigeria.

He feared that if Trump would be elected, his work permit would be revoked, and he said "I'm not going to wait for that".
While it is well known that Trump dislikes Mexicans, he also thinks Nigerians are bad. In a speech in januari, he specifically targeted them.

Soyinka is possibly the first prominent intellectual to leave the US out of fear for the new president

He acknowledges that Nigeria isn't per se a safer, or less corrupt country than the US. In fact, the stageplay author was held in prison for two years there during the civil war (conflict over Biafra) in the 1960s.
But now he says he prefers the chaos he knows over the chaos he does not know.

Back in Nigeria, he has faced a lot of criticism by Nigerians, who say tearing up his greencard is a great waste.
In a press conference last monday, Soyinka replied "that's my business. Why are there so many dumb Nigerians who critisize me for leaving the US? Where they the ones who gave me the greencard? The arrogance of some Nigerians is overwhelming. I don't mind your business, why would you mind mine?".