Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[RedKing]

If Leave had lost 35% to 38% they'd be pursuing a rematch at the next opportunistic moment, at least as quickly as the Scindependencers have with their wider margin of 38% to 47% loss.

I prefer the term Scexit. Which makes the followers of that idea Sceksis.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

TRIAL BY REFERENDUM!!

[alway]

What, and give up the perfectly good term of Sexit?

[hector13]

Calexit.

Or Caledonixit.

Albexit?

Nah, abandonshipbeforeeverythinggoestoshitxit.

[Max™]

If Leave had lost 35% to 38% they'd be pursuing a rematch at the next opportunistic moment, at least as quickly as the Scindependencers have with their wider margin of 38% to 47% loss.

I prefer the term Scexit. Which makes the followers of that idea Sceksis.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

TRIAL BY REFERENDUM!!

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[scriver]

Celtix?

[Radio Controlled]

By the way, the court case about whether or not the government should be allowed to trigger article 50 without a parliament vote is on it's last day. You can follow a running coverage (as well as coverage from previous days) here: https://twitter.com/SiobhanFenton

Also, new study results:

Brexit: If EU referendum was held again Remain would win due to 'Bregret', official figures reveal
'The finding highlights the shortcomings of using referenda to make policy choices on issues as complex as membership of the EU'

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

If those suffering from post-referendum “Bregret” had voted to stay in the European Union, the outcome of the Brexit vote would have been in favour of Remain, according to new analysis published by the British Election Study.
In a poll of more than 10,000 voters, the study found 1% of Remainers regretted their choice, in contrast to 6% of Leavers.
The study lends credibility to the theory that many exercised a protest vote in the referendum as a way of hitting back at the Westminster elite.
[...]

I took a quick look at this study to check if the independent wasn't exaggerating here. Note that the polling for whether or not people regretted their vote is only a small part of the study, there's other elements questioned, such as whether people with high social capital were more likely to vote leave or remain ("It shows a strong trend between social capital and Leave voting – those with the lowest levels of social capital are almost twice as likely to have voted Leave as those with the highest levels."), nostalgia ("there is a very strong relationship between thinking that things in Britain have got worse and voting Leave.") and others.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Regrets? We had a few

Finally, in considering the implications of the Brexit vote for the British electorate, we look at the extent of ‘Bregret’ (regretting a vote for Brexit) and whether it was sufficient in scale to matter.

We asked voters on both sides (whether they voted Leave or Remain) “do you have any regrets about the way you voted in the EU referendum?” The results in the table below show that, while there certainly are more people who regret their vote to Leave, the vast majority of both Leave and Remain voters did not regret the way they voted immediately after the referendum. It is also important to remember that it is easier to regret something if it actually ended up happening than if it didn’t. We therefore don’t know whether the newspapers would have been filled with stories of regretful Remain voters wishing they had taken the chance to leave Brussels forever if the vote had gone the other way.

                 Remain   Leave
No                98%   90%
Yes                   1%   6%
Don’t know   1%   4%


But is 6% a small amount of regret or a lot? One way to assess the amount of regret is to compare with how many people regretted how they voted in the General Election last year (when we asked an equivalent question). Overall, 4% of voters regretted how they voted in May 2015, the highest proportion being Liberal Democrats (8%) and Green voters (6%), perhaps because in the absence of a hung parliament these votes were deemed wasted. There was little evidence of a comparable winner’s regret, Conservative voters being less likely to regret than average (3%). Whilst the difference in regret of 6% to 1% would have been enough to swing the referendum outcome had people voted in the opposite way, the level of regret is consistent with what we saw at the general election.

The popular narrative about Bregret was that many Leave voters had not really expected to win and voted to Leave out of protest or just to give the political elite a bloody nose. We can look at this using our wave 8 (daily campaign) question “How likely do you think it is that the UK will vote to leave the EU?” with answers given from 0-100. The figure below shows that there is some truth in this interpretation. For Leave voters the chance of regret decreased from about one in ten for those that thought they were certain to lose, to about one in twenty five for those who expected to win. Overall, 8% of Leave voters who expected to lose regretted voting to Leave – 2% more than the overall figure for Leave voters. There was little evidence of any equivalent relationship for Remain voters except that those who felt certain to lose were a little more likely to regret voting to Remain. Perhaps they just regretted wasting their time.

Before getting too carried away, however, we should not assume that most Leave voters actually expected to lose. Whilst those expecting to lose were more likely to regret their vote, they were also in a minority. The graph below clearly shows that both Remain and Leave voters generally expected that their side would win or that it was completely uncertain (as shown by the large spike at 50%). In fact, Leave voters were more likely to expect a Leave victory (64%) than Remain voters were to expect a Remain victory (62%).
Overall, the narrative of surprised and regretful Leave voters has some truth but only for a small minority of voters. It also has some truth in the surveys we fielded immediately after the referendum result, but we do not know – yet – whether these feelings of regret will disperse once the implications of Brexit become clearer, or whether they may eventually become accentuated.

So yeah, according to these figures it would have been enough to change the outcome, but there's about as much regret as there is during regular elections (check the study itself for the figures and graphs, can't be arsed to copy them right now).

Oh, and the Home Office recently confirmed the rise in hatecrime as well: BBC: Race and religious hate crimes rose 41% after EU vote

[RedKing]

Celtix?

Nah, that's if Asterix the Gaul holds a referendum.

[Starver]

Celtix?

Nah, that's if Asterix the Gaul holds a referendum.

There's a biggish difference between the P-Celtic and Q-Celtic...

[Neonivek]

Oh, and the Home Office recently confirmed the rise in hatecrime as well: BBC: Race and religious hate crimes rose 41% after EU vote

Impossible! We all know the UK has no racial issues.

Though I do find it funny at the implications that the 41% could, in fact, be even higher! depending on how cowed people became.

Though the anti-disabled sentiment is certainly not something I would have pegged on the UK... that is certainly... surprising.

Why are people becoming increasingly antagonistic towards the disabled? (though it could be linked to the racial tension...)

[Sheb]

Going to play devil's advocate, but could it be due to improvement in reporting of some kind? That would explain the concommitent rise in anti-disabled people thing.

[Neonivek]

Going to play devil's advocate, but could it be due to improvement in reporting of some kind? That would explain the concommitent rise in anti-disabled people thing.

The other could also be that the improvements in the work force and school allow people with disabilities to be more visible.

For example in one town I know of there wasn't really any anti-disabled sentiment... Until the wheelchair laws started to become enforced which closed down a lot of businesses that couldn't afford to accommodate them.

Ok bad example... As I was going more for "Out of sight out of mind" suddenly not applying... rather than "They took me jerb!".

[Flying Dice]

Going to play devil's advocate, but could it be due to improvement in reporting of some kind? That would explain the concommitent rise in anti-disabled people thing.

Yeah, that seems to be the more reasoned interpretation. They're literally saying that they're only basing that claim on anecdotal evidence (but it's really good anecdotal evidence, guys!).

The spike right after the referendum I can buy being an actual increase, but settling down at a slightly higher average than pre-referendum (and across more spectra than the Muslim and Pole hate) suggests that some aspect of reporting or investigating (or looseness of interpretation of what constitutes a hate crime) has changed, rather than that Britons suddenly became 15-25% more hateful.

Or possibly that the bigots are pissed and mouthing off more frequently, that could explain it too, natch.

[Neonivek]

It just hasn't cooled down yet.

Given that the last time the UK had SUPER serious racial tension (err... the fourth time from now... 80s time) it only stopped after a economic upturn... Ignoring the UK never had racial tension

I don't think the current economic forecast exactly declares clear skies right now.

[hector13]

Yay for a weak pound!

On-topic-but-not-necessarily-relevant: Football Manager 2017 looking to simulate Brexit outcomes in their upcoming release.

[Loud Whispers]

I've much to catch up on ITT, but I must comment on how strange it is that the euro politician I most respect is a bundesbank banker. You find surprises every day! Also rather interesting is that Philip Hammond has fallen afoul of the Brexit minded Tory party after Theresa May accused him of undermining the Brexit negotiations, insinuating that he is the one who leaked the Brexit negotiation/planning papers

Rather saddening that, Phillip Hammond and Theresa May are both people I very much respect as professionals, to see them in conflict is a great waste of resources. Essentially Phillip Hammond is arguing for what he terms 'soft brexit,' which is a formal withdrawal from the European Union that remains within EU institutions like the single market, whereas Theresa May is arguing for what Philip calls 'hard brexit,' which is withdrawal from all EU institutions. Again, rather surprisingly, I agree with Donald Tusk that there is no distinction between 'soft brexit' and 'hard brexit,' only 'membership' and 'brexit.' Reason being if we stay in the common market then our external trade with the rest of the world would be controlled by the EU, which just wouldn't make sense since our world trade is the majority of our trade, and we would have to sacrifice migration & security controls in order to keep that. Sans being one of the negotiators of course, so it would be the worse end of everything for everyone who's not a banker lol

Speaking of bankers, and german bankers for that, rather intriguing this stuff about the EU's plans for capital union. The EU bankers figured fiscal union is still a very long way off and impossible to achieve in the short term, yet they reckon the EU still needs to integrate further or else the Euro glue will crumble and the Union will shatter. So: Capital Union. Not fiscal union, but a very big step towards it. Naturally Brexit throws a spanner in the works, so it is interesting to see what occurs half a decade hence

Impossible! We all know the UK has no racial issues.

Lmao you still salty people asked you for sources

I don't begrudge Leavers for trying every tactic they can to hold off even the faintest of challenges to their wishes.  There's up to 38% of people who can see defeat being snatched from the jaws of victory. (Also why it appears the words "overwhelming majority" have been retasked to describe "barely scraped past those bothered to vote otherwise", because they really want it to be so, and like "Crooked Hillary" or any other soundbite meme you could mention it just aims to transcends reality.)
If Leave had lost 35% to 38% they'd be pursuing a rematch at the next opportunistic moment, at least as quickly as the Scindependencers have with their wider margin of 38% to 47% loss.

Aye, Brexit campaign was very maligned when it didn't control government and had to deal with Remain in control, now the gov is in Brexit hands the winner takes all mentality has switched over to Brex camp
There isn't much need though to quell opposition, as there is no realistic opposition; this is due to the implosion of labour. Currently the biggest schism is Philip Hammond vs Theresa May, which is the final battle between neoliberalism and conservatism for at least a few decades

A safe space? :p
In other news, falling sterling cause marmite and Ben&Jerry shortage. Well, not exactly shortage: the produce wants to raise price to reflect higher price of imported inputs and supermarkets don't want that.

I gotta get the LES Marmite piece up here, if I can find the newspaper lying around somewhere, it's hilarious

Ahah, LW you're so funny, continually quoting random think-tank and presenting that as European policy.

Haha you must be joking Sheb, the ESI's advice being sought after by European policy makers and in turn being implemented as European policy does European policy a make!

You must be rather silly to deny the Merkel Samson plan as implemented by the European Union does not represent European Union policy

Next you'll tell me European Union law has nothing to do with European Union law, that German banks have nothing to do with European monetary policy, that European Nations have nothing to do with the European Union

    “As soon as mid-September, ESI had already proposed a solution to the refugee crisis, which in large part has now been adopted by the European Commission. At the core of ESI’s proposal is the idea that the German government should take the lead and commit to resettling 500,000 Syrian refugees directly from Turkey to Germany … In return, Ankara should immediately readmit all migrants reaching Greece via the Aegean or the Turkish-Greek land border in Thracia. Substantial elements of this idea apparently are part of a plan that the EU Commission says it has negotiated with Turkey, but there is no official confirmation from Ankara about the existence of such an agreement. Before Turkish President Recap Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Brussels this Monday, ESI continued to advocate for a “package deal”: readmission of a number of refugees to be determined in return for the immediate application of the readmission agreement between the EU and Turkey.”

    7 October: Angela Merkel on German TV (Anne Will) where she explains her plan:“We must better protect our external borders, but this is only possible if we reach agreements with our neighbours, for example with Turkey, on how to better share the task of dealing with the refugees. And this will mean more money for Turkey, which has many expenses because of the refugees. This will mean that we will accept a set number of refugees, in a way so that the human traffickers and smugglers in the Aegean will not earn money, but in an orderly way …
random think tank

You try to dig deeper and provide interesting information about behind the scenes political sausage making and yuros plug the sausage in their ears xD

Also seems I caught up with everything ITT