You need to outnumber her by quite a lot to win because of her effective +2 (+1 from sea +1 from human) bonus. If you had taken the recruiting ground, all you could do is have a slight advantage numbers advantage over her, which means you ether send troops from elsewhere into the fight (IE, remove them from your other important fronts) or you build up troops there... But your cap is 20. So you'd need to spend like 75, maybe 100% of your cap to kill her nine. Ether way taking her islands involves weakening your boarders with everyone else.
You're really counting your chickens before they hatch, and especially without doing the math.
But I am doing the math? I get a +2 attack bonus, meaning that they only get an effective +1 bonus for equal numbers. This is
less than anyone else attacking a fortified area. For every three extra, I get +1, except for the first. For 1-1, that is 32.8% victory for every round. 1+3-1 is the same (HOC knocks out the first). 1+6 is 43.75 each. And you seem to be forgetting that this is for
each army. That is, if I had two armies there and she has one there (as it would be if I had a training grounds there), I would get two 32.8 chances to take her capital. Having three more isn't only a +1 bonus, it means you can lose three more times and still win the fight.
It's not just tiruin you have to worry about, and she has the ability to concentrate that force onto one single point, whereas you need to spread yours out.
As for bonuses, I'm pretty sure I'm the best off in fortifications, with a +3 that's gonna be +4 next turn (+4/+5 In the capital) so you can guess I'm not gonna go down easily. And you can bet I'm getting harder beat as things drag on. Hell, my capital at max unit stats will have it's on chimera, if not better and certainly able to be more numerous.
If I get to you, then either A. I have already conquered Heart, and have pretty much won the game already
or B. You send your troops to fight overseas, where they will be outnumbered and the bonuses won't mean as much. Against me, that is *only* a +1 bonus, or a +2 with the next turn. That is the exact same bonus I will have against you if you try attacking fortified areas.
**EDIT**
Dwarfs are tough turtling assholes, news at 11 I guess.
*Shakes fist.
Edit: But somewhat irrelevant.
Also, its your turn Cript. Make yer move already.