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FUCK YES LET'S LEAVE GET HYPE YEY

Casual yes, let's leave and get independence done with

Meh, probably just scribble all over my vote ballot to spite tryhards

Casual no, let's remain and get integration done with

FUCK NO LET'S REMAIN GET CALM YEY

[TD1]

Not too much, I'd say. Remain lies also probably swung the vote, so they at least went some way to cancel each other out.

[Max™]

http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/2016/06/24/repost-brexistential-crisis-what-would-cassandra-say/

Rather interesting bit there about a January prediction that has so far come partially true, I thought.

[Cthulhu]

I'm still waiting for bremainers to tell us the merits of the EU.

All the arguments I've seen focus on how fucked the UK is without the EU, rather than why the EU is great.  "You can't leave," "you'll be in the gutter without me," "you're nothing without me"

This is a classic spousal abuse situation.  Get outta there UK, I'm sure America has a couch you can chill on until you get things back together.

[Max™]

I think Puerto Rico is sleeping on that couch, take it up with them?

[MonkeyHead]

I'm still waiting for bremainers to tell us the merits of the EU.

This is why Remain lost.

[Leafsnail]

The reason why the withdrawal will be so painful is that we're losing a tonne of good things such as free trade, international research efforts, ability to travel freely around the EU etc

[EnigmaticHat]

The way I see it, both sides are arguing for the status quo of their youth.

Its just that one side grew up in the EU and the other didn't.

[Starver]

Not too much, I'd say. Remain lies also probably swung the vote, so they at least went some way to cancel each other out.

Overall, neither side did much 'useful'.  Project Fear wasn't just one side's strategy, so that anyone (going by my own experience) not already welded to some particular (mis)conception of either side had to fall back on some almost imperceptable quantum swaying of feeling, rather than a definite aim.

In this universe, it swung Brexitwise. My own local result was a mere percentile swing one way, and could so easily have been the other by some few thousand counter-swung votes. And the result would have been just as argued over, but perhaps more internally whilst the rest of the world grew bored and switched back to the impending US race much sooner.

[hector13]

So... what 'bout the UK in the EEA/EFTA?

Also, I read somewhere that invoking Article 50 requires approval from the Scottish parliament, though I can't find it again

[Max™]

Not too much, I'd say. Remain lies also probably swung the vote, so they at least went some way to cancel each other out.

Overall, neither side did much 'useful'.  Project Fear wasn't just one side's strategy, so that anyone (going by my own experience) not already welded to some particular (mis)conception of either side had to fall back on some almost imperceptable quantum swaying of feeling, rather than a definite aim.

In this universe, it swung Brexitwise. My own local result was a mere percentile swing one way, and could so easily have been the other by some few thousand counter-swung votes. And the result would have been just as argued over, but perhaps more internally whilst the rest of the world grew bored and switched back to the impending US race much sooner.

Plus in that other universe you didn't have to trade in your "we're smarter than the US" card.

I mean, we have a party over here which has spent years developing a voter mindset of ignorance and fear of outgroups, then it backfired so they wound up stuck with a guy everyone hates... and this guy thinks brexit was a great idea.

Having London serve as an access node for EU finances with the rest of the world alone should be obviously good enough to stay, whether you like financial gaming or not, it's brought a lot of wealth into the economy which otherwise wouldn't stick around as it has. Free movement of goods and services and talent, this is something which seems obviously positive over here in the states. If there's something neat I want to do or buy over in... Arkansas (HAH!) I can just go over there. Same with any other state, even the ones I'd have to make a serious investment to reach.

Then we imagine a world where Texas got out of the US, and I want to go home and visit family in Dallas. Now I've gotta make sure my shit is up to date, deal with border regulations, all that nonsense. I want to do business there, I've got a load of extra hoops to jump through versus just setting up shop somewhere like Oklahoma (HAHAH!) or Alabama (HAHAHOH GOD BAHAHA!) or go for the coastal population centers.

Cutting off the ease and immediacy which all of that can be done seems like a remarkably stupid thing to do, and for what? Fear of Okies coming over here? I don't like them either, but I don't see how shooting myself in the gut is going to help anything.

So... what 'bout the UK in the EEA/EFTA?

Also, I read somewhere that invoking Article 50 requires approval from the Scottish parliament, though I can't find it again

https://t.co/CKOE12XIiF

Per the House of Lords European Union Committee (11th Report of Session 2015-16, "The process of withdrawing from the European Union"). See paras 70-71, "The role of the devolved legislatures in implementing the withdrawal agreement" -- section 29 of the Scotland Act 1998 binds the Scottish Parliament to act in a manner compatible with EU law, and Scottish parliamentary consent would be required to amend this.

[TD1]

By your argument, Max, America should never have made its declaration of independence. So many inconvenient hoops created with that.

[Owlbread]

Two opinion polls have been conducted, unfortunately information about them is somewhat scarce. Both are for Sunday newspapers - the Sunday Times and the Sunday Post. Sunday Post's poll of 1000+ in Scotland (pollster currently unknown) shows 59% support for Scottish independence and 32% support for the Union. Excluding undecideds, 65% support independence. The Sunday Times on the other hand allegedly report a much more modest 4 point lead for independence over the Union - exactly how that breaks down I don't know. I'm waiting to see the information as it becomes known tomorrow.

If the opinion polls are sitting in a similar position 6 months from now, the next Scottish independence referendum will likely come very soon i.e. probably within a year. We need more polls to show that the Sunday Post's isn't an outlier.

It's important to bear in mind that opinion polls have been proven almost entirely wrong by the general election in 2015 and the EU referendum results - that's not important though, we're not using them as an accurate gauge of public opinion, only whether there has been a big swing to Yes. If that's clear, then the Scottish government will push for independence. They will only call a referendum when they're certain the chances are the best they're going to get at winning. I suppose I could point out the one place the polls were accurate in 2015 was Scotland, where they actually underestimated the SNP's successes, but we should still take them with a fistful of salt; support for independence may be significantly higher or lower than they show. Some may argue they overestimated the SNP's chances in this year's parliamentary election. Who knows.

[Max™]

Note that Scotland will probably want to exit sooner than later, if they are independent before Brexit completes then they stay in the EU don't they?

By your argument, Max, America should never have made its declaration of independence. So many inconvenient hoops created with that.

Sure, in fact all the euros should have stayed over there and left things on this side of the pond alone, why not?

My point is that we're in a world which has a few similar overlapping governments with subunits that enjoy free trade and proximity benefits: the EU and US both provide frameworks for their subunits to improve their situation, at least theoretically (*cough* nobody look at greece or mississippi *cough*) speaking, and the exit of one subunit on the basis of "dey tuk ar jerbs" is amazingly ignorant.

[MorleyDev]

Note that Scotland will probably want to exit sooner than later, if they are independent before Brexit completes then they stay in the EU don't they?

As I understand it, Scotland is only a member of the EU through the UK. If they left the UK, they would leave the EU and have to rejoin. That risk was actually a major argument used for voting to remain in the UK back when the referendum happened.

[NJW2000]

Fuck. 2%

More than 2% was out of sheer racism, I'll bet.

Being fucking 16 in Britain and watching people who will die in less than a decade fuck up my country's future...

And fucking country bigots who've seen as many immigrants in the past few years as I've seen buddhist monks.

And watching the Tories cringe as if they hadn't created this entire situation and engineered a country that would even vote to do that.

As for the money concerns, I think the real thing we should be worried about is how we got in a fiscal situation that a currency can lose 10% of its value in two days because of a vote.

Call me shortsighted, but I'm a little more concerned right now that we just fucking did. Yes, the financial system is insane. No, that's not what screwed our economy, for a change.