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FUCK YES LET'S LEAVE GET HYPE YEY

Casual yes, let's leave and get independence done with

Meh, probably just scribble all over my vote ballot to spite tryhards

Casual no, let's remain and get integration done with

FUCK NO LET'S REMAIN GET CALM YEY

[MonkeyHead]

In other news, Brexit has wiped $2 trillion off the global stock markets, making it already as expensive as the entire Iraq war. Pretty impressive considering the UK's GDP is only around $2.75 trillion.

So what?

Not everyone considers what could be argued is a form of "economic suicide" (which had fair warning, too) a price worth paying in order to attain some of the claimed benefits of leaving the EU (some of which have already been dismissed by those who earlier proposed them - rendering it a rather absurd situation where the cost will return literally nothing).

YMMV.

[BorkBorkGoesTheCode]

Where is the evidence?

[MonkeyHead]

Where is the evidence?

... what is it you are asking for evidence of?

[BorkBorkGoesTheCode]

Where is the evidence?

... what is it you are asking for evidence of?

Is there any factual basis for most of the claims being made about the future of the British economy? Most of what I have seen from the experts looks like bluff. I am actually open to evidence, so if you have some I will look into it.

[Frumple]

In other news, Brexit has wiped $2 trillion off the global stock markets, making it already as expensive as the entire Iraq war. Pretty impressive considering the UK's GDP is only around $2.75 trillion.

Not really though is it. The Iraq war was funded out of Brits pockets through taxation. Stocks losing value is hardly the same.

... what? Only a fraction of the Iraq war was funded by British pockets. Highest estimate I'm seeing was 37b. That is... less than 2t. Even if you want to say it's a different sort of thing, the scale is kinda' wildly disparate.

[notquitethere]

In other news, Brexit has wiped $2 trillion off the global stock markets, making it already as expensive as the entire Iraq war. Pretty impressive considering the UK's GDP is only around $2.75 trillion.

Not really though is it. The Iraq war was funded out of Brits pockets through taxation. Stocks losing value is hardly the same.

... what? Only a fraction of the Iraq war was funded by British pockets. Highest estimate I'm seeing was 37b. That is... less than 2t. Even if you want to say it's a different sort of thing, the scale is kinda' wildly disparate.

I was just thinking of British cost of Iraq war but yes of course, it was mostly funded by Americans etc.

[andrea]

still, at this stage talks of economical collapse are overblown. we are seeing an emotional reaction from the markets, but what has changed in the last 2 days in terms of employment, wages, trade? weak pound may have an effect , but it is early to tell if it will stick, for how long, and what kind of effect it will have. the "economy collapse" right now is entirely within the stock markets due to gloomy predictions of a future collapse in company revenue and value. The accuracy of this prediction remains to be seen and even if the results will be negative, those kind of reactions tend to be somewhat exagerated compared to their causes.

That said, I am not an economist and mainiac surely has a clearer view of how dramatic this stock market downturn is. In fact he probably posted it already, but I missed it in the great spike of activity post-leave.

Just, my personal guess is that after the panic passes in a few days or weeks, most of the dip will be recovered.

Note: I hoped britain would remain. Just to make it clear on which side of the political debate I stand.

[LoSboccacc]

if we'd be playing fantapolitik, I'd say they may go as far as getting some bad agreement for leaving and referendum that to try and stop the exit.

now the question is will be europe smart enough to use this as a stick to bring the gb into the eurozone and shengen?

[Harry Baldman]

if we'd be playing fantapolitik, I'd say they may go as far as getting some bad agreement for leaving and referendum that to try and stop the exit.

now the question is will be europe smart enough to use this as a stick to bring the gb into the eurozone and shengen?

Wouldn't this be the worst-case scenario for the UK, though? They don't leave the EU and the EU still fucks them out of spite. Failed rebellions are the least appreciated rebellions.

[MonkeyHead]

Where is the evidence?

... what is it you are asking for evidence of?

Is there any factual basis for most of the claims being made about the future of the British economy? Most of what I have seen from the experts looks like bluff. I am actually open to evidence, so if you have some I will look into it.

... you want factual evidence that will tell you how future events for a system that in inherently chaotic will unfold when the events themselves are unprecedented, and you are dismissing the predictions of experts as bluff?  What exactly are you expecting anyone to offer you?

Someone way more well versed in macroeconomics than I no doubt could go into way more detail.

if we'd be playing fantapolitik, I'd say they may go as far as getting some bad agreement for leaving and referendum that to try and stop the exit.

now the question is will be europe smart enough to use this as a stick to bring the gb into the eurozone and shengen?

Erm, you do realise that a fear of the Euro and of Shengen were 2 big factors in making the UK leave? The UK wants to leave. The state of UK politics is that our government would take a shit leaving deal above being blackmailed to stay in while accepting the very things that made people want to leave.

[LoSboccacc]

yes yes I do, but now there seems to be an even bigger fear to leverage to get them back in

[Owlbread]

I've seen 3 of the most committed Unionists I knew of circa 2014 openly admit that Brexit has opened their mind and they are now undecided; they don't back independence yet, but they don't back the union anymore either.

[BorkBorkGoesTheCode]

In other news, Brexit has wiped $2 trillion off the global stock markets, making it already as expensive as the entire Iraq war. Pretty impressive considering the UK's GDP is only around $2.75 trillion.

So what?

Not everyone considers what could be argued is a form of "economic suicide" (which had fair warning, too) a price worth paying in order to attain some of the claimed benefits of leaving the EU (some of which have already been dismissed by those who earlier proposed them - rendering it a rather absurd situation where the cost will return literally nothing).

YMMV.

Where is the evidence?

... what is it you are asking for evidence of?

Is there any factual basis for most of the claims being made about the future of the British economy? Most of what I have seen from the experts looks like bluff. I am actually open to evidence, so if you have some I will look into it.

... you want factual evidence that will tell you how future events for a system that in inherently chaotic will unfold when the events themselves are unprecedented, and you are dismissing the predictions of experts as bluff?  What exactly are you expecting anyone to offer you?

Someone way more well versed in macroeconomics than I no doubt could go into way more detail.

I await their response.

[martinuzz]

None other than the son of Ian Paisley, the vicar that led the North-Irish Democrat Unionist Party in their struggle against catholic Ireland's influence, has made a public statement, in which he advises and urges all citizens of Northern Ireland to apply for an Irish passport, if they have that right.

According to the Good Friday agreement of 1998, every person born in Northern Ireland has a right to two passports, both a UK one, and an Irish one.




In other news, the city councellor of economics for the city of Amsterdam reports that several companies have decided to move out of London, and settle their headquarters in Amsterdam.

Without giving any names, her spokesman said it concerned several Asian firms from the financial sector.
According to the spokesman, Asian firms will try to avoid the uncertainty that comes with a Brexit. "In Asia, investors really, really don't like political uncertainty."

Boudewijn Poldermans, a consultant for Chinese investors in Europe, says:
"Up until last friday, London was the financial capitol of the world. But because of the Brexit, this position will be very questionable for the coming years.
Uncertainty about labour laws, taxes, exchange rates and stability of the British economy are a big reason for Asian companies to remove their headquarters from London".

This sentiment is not restricted to Asia, but can also be found in the US, says René Buck, consultant for US business in Europe. "Business want to develop now, they don't want to wait two years until there's clarity about how the divorce of the UK and EU will take shape."

Before the Brexit referendum, Buck held a poll amongst US companies.
"One out of three companies say they 'consider' removing their HQ from London in case of a Brexit. One out of eight say it is 'likely' for them to do so.
Poll results were the same for both 'smaller' business, like the logistics and fashion industry, as well as for larger companies developing medical and pharmaceutical technology.

The latter have many rules and regulations to deal with the EU, and having their HQ inside of the EU is a benefit, if not a necessity.

Amsterdam is the favourite location for relocation for 61% of the polled companies. The proximity to Schiphol airport, as well as the multi-lingual Dutch population are key factors there.

The councellor's spokesman adds that even thogh it benefits Amsterdam right now, "in the long term a Brexit could pose a threat to Amsterdam economy. After the exit process is done, Great Britain has it's hands free to create a tax system to make it very attractive for foreign companies to settle in London".
http://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/-veel-bedrijven-verhuizen-van-londen-naar-amsterdam-na-brexit~a4327652/

[Antioch]

still, at this stage talks of economical collapse are overblown. we are seeing an emotional reaction from the markets, but what has changed in the last 2 days in terms of employment, wages, trade? weak pound may have an effect , but it is early to tell if it will stick, for how long, and what kind of effect it will have. the "economy collapse" right now is entirely within the stock markets due to gloomy predictions of a future collapse in company revenue and value. The accuracy of this prediction remains to be seen and even if the results will be negative, those kind of reactions tend to be somewhat exagerated compared to their causes.

That said, I am not an economist and mainiac surely has a clearer view of how dramatic this stock market downturn is. In fact he probably posted it already, but I missed it in the great spike of activity post-leave.

Just, my personal guess is that after the panic passes in a few days or weeks, most of the dip will be recovered.

Note: I hoped britain would remain. Just to make it clear on which side of the political debate I stand.

The uncertainty itself WILL hurt the UK at least the coming 2 years, like Martinuzz posted there are already companies moving away from the UK.