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Author Topic: Latin American Politics: Moralism  (Read 101155 times)

Reelya

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #390 on: January 31, 2018, 08:12:30 pm »

Given that hindsight is 20/20, I'm sure there are things that could have been done that didn't make things worse after the recession (more like a Great Depression by now for Venezuelans) started.

The big one was a tactical mistake: using price controls. Price controls are a mistake because they just try and paper over the reason inflation is happening, which is that demand is outstripping supply.

e.g. there's a shortage so the price rises, so you make shops sell the good for a set price. Now, if that price falls below cost, the shop decides not to sell the item at all, which means you get empty shelves, even though there isn't actually a shortage, per se. However, if they sell the item at your set price, then it sells out too quickly, and a secondary black market forms. Then, people start hoarding for profit and not just stocking up for themselves, causing further price inflation.

Price controls aren't workable because they just force private sellers to charge a specific price that has nothing to do with the reality of the supply situation. What you really want to do is to make sure that each person has access to a basic amount of food without completely going broke. e.g. something like a UBI / food stamps program would be much more sensible.

Well they do have one real alternative to inflation, and that's to make a gold-backed currency to pay people with. But then you have a different problem, when the inflow of foreign currency drops, then you get deflation since there aren't enough customers with cash to buy the goods.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2018, 08:26:45 pm by Reelya »
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smjjames

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #391 on: January 31, 2018, 08:26:20 pm »

Not sure why they haven't taken the price controls off already given the massive unstoppable hyperinflation, other than corrupt politicians wanting to remain in power or keep the status quo, and Maduro being mildly incompetent.
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Reelya

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #392 on: January 31, 2018, 08:27:22 pm »

Probably the same reasons nobody's been able to remove the gasoline subsidy in decades.

Also, the US analysis on the matter is a joke:



4500% inflation in the next couple of years? While they could be right, the IMF also has a history of making inflation estimates for Venezuela which are massively out of line with what actually happens. Even The Cato Institute has called them out on being full of shit on the Venezuela doom and gloom, and Cato is no friend of Venezuela. e.g. an IMF report in 2008 claimed that Venezuelan inflation would spiral completely out of control over the next few years, but it actually ended up going down instead. It didn't even rise at all in 2009 let alone keep going up. Also the IMF figures in that report for Venezuela looked suspect: they were all rounded to zeros at three decimal places, whereas all other nations in the report had detailed figures to three decimal places.

So, after that 2008 report, I just assume the IMF is making shit up as they go along, and isn't actually doing any analysis. Basically, they write complete bunk that's riddled with executive meddling instead of any numerical analysis.

https://www.cato.org/blog/results-are-imfs-venezuela-inflation-guesstimate-was-way
« Last Edit: January 31, 2018, 08:46:56 pm by Reelya »
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smjjames

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #393 on: January 31, 2018, 08:42:15 pm »

I thought the IMF was an European organization, not an American one. Also, has that amount of projected inflation with that speed ever actually happened in history? Like ever? I know Germany had problems after WWII (or was it WWI?) with their money becoming practically useless for a time, but I don't know the specifics behind that.
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thvaz

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #394 on: January 31, 2018, 08:48:43 pm »

So I was being fooled all this time by the evil media! Venezuela is in fact a socialist paradise and Chavez is a saint! 

Oh no guys, it is just some dictatorship apologist and would be historical revisionist.

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Reelya

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #395 on: January 31, 2018, 08:50:25 pm »

The IMF is based in Washington DC.

If you read up about them, they're basically a cold-war front organization for USA and Britain, that tries to get countries to abolish sovereignty and let multinational corporations buy up everything in your nation.

IMF "loans" always come with strings attached, like forcing you to privatize the water and hospitals and stuff. They're basically a front for right-wing neoliberal multinationals to get access to poor country's wealth.

Oh no guys, it is just some dictatorship apologist

They have elections, and those elections have international monitors. Other parties run for office, and win governorship, have mayors, senators etc. That's not a dictatorship. There are multiple parties and private media that aren't pro-government. If you have state governors who aren't from the presidents party, then that really does go against the idea that it's a dictatorship any more than Trump + Republicans are a dictatorship.

Which part is a dictatorship?
« Last Edit: January 31, 2018, 08:53:56 pm by Reelya »
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smjjames

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #396 on: January 31, 2018, 08:53:02 pm »

Right-wing and NeoLiberal are two things that I don't think would ever go together.
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thvaz

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #397 on: January 31, 2018, 09:01:54 pm »

The IMF is based in Washington DC.

If you read up about them, they're basically a cold-war front organization for USA and Britain, that tries to get countries to abolish sovereignty and let multinational corporations buy up everything in your nation.

IMF "loans" always come with strings attached, like forcing you to privatize the water and hospitals and stuff. They're basically a front for right-wing neoliberal multinationals to get access to poor country's wealth.

Oh no guys, it is just some dictatorship apologist

They have elections, and those elections have international monitors. Other parties run for office, and win governorships, have mayors, senators etc. That's not a dictatorship. There are multiple parties and private media that aren't pro-government. Which part is a dictatorship?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/30/fear-of-violence-hangs-over-venezuela-assembly-election
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/17/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-dictatorship-elections-jeremy-corbyn

about Venezuela inflation:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-inflation/venezuela-2017-annual-inflation-at-2616-percent-opposition-lawmakers-idUSKBN1EX23B
 
about the government respecting private bussiness:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-31178692
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/business/venezuela-general-motors-business-protests.html

Just some examples after a minute of googling.






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smjjames

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #398 on: January 31, 2018, 09:15:22 pm »

Russia still has elections, but they're effectively a dictatorship. What a dictatorship looks like these days looks different from the more iron fisted no-elections-at all dictatorships. The term that's all the rage these days for the greyer areas between full on ironfisted dictatorship and liberal democracy is 'illiberal democracy'.

As for the respecting private corporations, it doesn't give the Venezuela goverments side of it for GM, just GM complaining. The one with the supermarket may be lacking further context and information.
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Reelya

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #399 on: January 31, 2018, 09:50:44 pm »

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/aug/18/neoliberalism-the-idea-that-changed-the-world

Quote
The paper gently called out a “neoliberal agenda” for pushing deregulation on economies around the world, for forcing open national markets to trade and capital, and for demanding that governments shrink themselves via austerity or privatisation. The authors cited statistical evidence for the spread of neoliberal policies since 1980, and their correlation with anaemic growth, boom-and-bust cycles and inequality.

Basically, what they're describing is the classic IMF loan requirements. And it's found that these requirements don't actually lead to growth, and destabilize economies. What they do however is create investment opportunities for the wealthy nations. And when it fails, as it often does, then the IMF does a "bailout" by which western taxpayer's money is paid out to the creditors of the failed loan-recipient. e.g. the bail-out money actually goes to the wealthy western investors who benefited from the IMF's enforced deregulation / privatization. It means that the taxpayer pays for all of this, wealthy investors get to invest and make a profit, and if you don't make a profit, then the taxpayer covers your losses. It's a "win-win". For the rich person ... and the IMF director, who then gets a job with your bank afterwards.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/30/fear-of-violence-hangs-over-venezuela-assembly-election

But even in that article, it says the opposition are firing guns and explosives:

Quote
the prosecutor’s office confirmed at least six people were killed by gunfire, including one national guardsman. Seven policemen were wounded in an explosion in the opposition stronghold neighbourhood of Altamira.

So ... the opposition are also terrorists, according to your first article. At least one national guard member was shot, and we can't really tell from this which side the other 6 were even on (there have been shootings of pro-government people at rallies too. or of innocent bystanders trying to avoid opposition street barricades).

As for the 2014 protest deaths, there are breakdowns of the details of each death, many more were attributed to the protestors than to authorities:

https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13081
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Heres-Your-Guide-to-Understanding-Protest-Deaths-in-Venezuela-20170422-0016.html
e.g. one of the deaths claimed was that of an 83 year old woman who needed an ambulance but couldn't get to hospital because of the protests. She's counted as being Maduro's fault, as are people who weren't even in protests, or were shot by right-wing opposition supporters when they were attending pro-socialist rallies. Tons of people seem to have been randomly shot while trying to avoid pro-opposition roadblocks, while there are basically no examples of the people manning the opposition roadblocks being shot at. the article I linked has names, details and locations for all the victims, so you can in fact google the names to get more details. Basically the other side has details here that you can read and go and fact-check, while the opposition only wants to vaguely hint at deaths and claim that only the other guy is doing it. The opposition is shooting people then adding up the bodies and saying "look what Maduro did!". It really doesn't help their case.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-inflation/venezuela-2017-annual-inflation-at-2616-percent-opposition-lawmakers-idUSKBN1EX23B
Quote
Hundreds of people mobbed some supermarkets on Saturday after authorities promised price cuts.

How is this different to America then? People stomp each other's heads in to get the Black Friday specials.

This one you link:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-31178692

Quote
Venezuela's economy has been heavily affected by the drop in oil prices.

Which is a rare article where they let some reality seep through the "socialism did it!" facade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/business/venezuela-general-motors-business-protests.html
They took over the plant. However, the plant had already been closed down, it's similar with a bunch of the other ones in the article.

Another key metric is looking at how much the country actually consumes. Beef is a good metric. In 1998, Venezuelans consumed 415,000 tons of beef. That grew to 590,000 tons of beef in 2015, when the food crisis was supposed to be really hitting.

http://beef2live.com/story-venezuela-beef-production-imports-consumption-1960-2015-0-120921
Venezuela consumed about the same amount of beef per person as Singapore in 2016:
http://beef2live.com/story-world-beef-consumption-per-capita-ranking-countries-0-111634

There are a ton of articles claiming the extent of the crisis is exaggerated, and they don't come from Venezuela:
https://www.thenation.com/article/how-severe-is-venezuelas-crisis/
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/11/venezuela-crisis-20131129123811227680.html
https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13478
« Last Edit: January 31, 2018, 10:30:17 pm by Reelya »
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IronyOwl

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #400 on: January 31, 2018, 10:15:23 pm »

Also, has that amount of projected inflation with that speed ever actually happened in history? Like ever? I know Germany had problems after WWII (or was it WWI?) with their money becoming practically useless for a time, but I don't know the specifics behind that.
A quick check of Wikipedia suggests it's very rare but not unheard of. The tricky part is that when things get that bad, they usually spiral completely out of control, as with the Weimar Republic's 30,000% inflation rate after WWI or the absurd fiasco with Zimbabwe trying to print their troubles away. Hitting and then staying at 4500% inflation over a few years would be oddly balanced between catastrophe and restraint.
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redwallzyl

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #401 on: February 01, 2018, 07:54:18 am »

Right-wing and NeoLiberal are two things that I don't think would ever go together.
they go together all the time. Especially in the US. The Republicans are neoliberal incarnate.
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Doomblade187

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #402 on: February 01, 2018, 04:45:30 pm »

A reminder that we have a forum member from Venezuela. From what we've heard (sad thread): It's not good down there, and there are food and economic troubles causing major strain. Apparently some stores require you to be a member of the ruling party, as well.
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Reelya

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #403 on: February 04, 2018, 01:16:37 pm »

Interesting news. Last monday, the Venezuelan government announced that it would scrap currency controls in favor of an exchange with floating values. By Friday, the local currency had gained 11% vs the USD. This backs up the idea I've mentioned that the price controls are one of the primary mechanisms to blame for the inflation.

https://www.ft.com/content/26d539d0-076d-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

Under the previous system, the government was trying to make imports cheaper by offering USD's from oil at preferential rates (e.g. as low as 10 bolivars to the USD if you said you were importing vital medicines). So they were selling USDs cheap. People were then buying the discounting USDs, but corruption was rampant. Instead of buying medicine, they'd sell the USDs on the black market for e.g. 100's of times what they paid for them. But they're scrapping that, and already it looks like the price of USDs in Venezuela is coming back down, because hoarders / speculators have started to sell off their stockpiles of USD purchased as the discounted rates.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the weeks after this, whether it sustains that direction or is just a hiccup. If my hunch is right that the people getting the discounted USDs have been heavily hoarding them to exploit the situation, and the price of bolivars continues to appreciate, then there could be an even bigger sell-off of the hoarded USD currencies.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2018, 02:05:07 pm by Reelya »
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Sheb

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Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
« Reply #404 on: February 05, 2018, 11:46:58 am »

Could you copy-paste that article in a spoiler? It sounds interesting, but is behind a paywall.
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