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Author Topic: Mafia Marathon  (Read 230863 times)

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2655 on: September 09, 2016, 08:05:10 pm »

I'm going to vote hector before it's day end.  I'll explain tomorrow.  I'm just kind of out of it right now.
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hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2656 on: September 09, 2016, 08:07:29 pm »

FoU

Spoiler: spoiler 'cause big (click to show/hide)

Starver:

Is there any reason you can give behind why you trust FoU, without saying more than you want to?

PPE: TBF: a quick summary would suffice.
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.

Starver

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2657 on: September 09, 2016, 08:20:50 pm »

Starver:

Is there any reason you can give behind why you trust FoU, without saying more than you want to?

Fallacy claimed not to have done anything N0 or N1, and I have good reason to believe at least one of those to be true.

(Moonlit has interesting confirmation about me, and them. I have a more definite suspect in mind. But I'm runnng through the possible variations before comitting. It is 2:15am and it may have to wait until after I've slept, whenever that ends up being, so I know that I'm not being trivially stupid. Complicatedly stupid, or not at all.)
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hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2658 on: September 10, 2016, 07:55:05 am »

FoU, 'cause in all the arguing I forgot I hadn't done that yet :))
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.

Starver

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2659 on: September 10, 2016, 08:41:27 am »

I've been waiting so I don't doublepost... Disappointingly little conversation, still.

I don't understand Hector's going after Fallacy, unless Hector really doesn't want to roleflip me. I've tested you alll, actually, in stating qualities that associate with scum. I've even suggested reasons I might be scum. I specifically advised you that I might be scum and had no takers. But it's Hector that I'm most suspicious of.

Hector thinks that Fallacy is worth voting on, D1, perhaps on N0 action, yet apparently (see below) retreats from this view N1 to test for Insane Copness or somesuch. Having 'discovered' Insane Copicity, which would invalidate any real N0 results, goes straight back to accusing, and now voting for, Fallacy.  And I've deliberately made myself look at least as guilty, in daytext, as Fallacy, by vouching for them, defending them, adding my own version of OMGUS-by-proxy...  I'm at least an ally. Unless you're convinced I'm a Jester, why avoid killing me? Unless you are sure my roleflip would help your opponents...

There are some other answers to the solutions, but based upon my interpretation of 'fragments of thw last rounds roles are mixed up and redistributed' idea, most are out of bounds.

Full reveal. I check (Visit) my primary target to see if they leave their abode. I watch (not-Visit) my secondary target to see if they are themselves visited.

N0: Primary Fallacy did not leave; Secondary Fish...  not entirely sure as I was told nothing, even after checking if it was right that I was told nothing. (Have considered that I was re-routing Primary to Secondary, espec. after N1, and given Fallacy did nothing then Fish did not get a Visit from Fallacy...)

N1: Primary Hector went out; Secondary Moonlit was visited by Hector.  (Conceivably, I gave Hector the impression that he was Insane Cop, if I was the cause of this, but I was hoping Hector would say something that would at least attempt to do something other than go for Fallacy, for reasons I still find highly deficient. No sign of this.)

Moonlit's statement about my success isn't entirely satisfying.  In some ways it worries me. Fallacy should be at least half right about not doing anything both rounds. Fish appears to confirm that I was right not to be told anything about visitors to him N0.

If we've got a rearrange of prior-round skills, I'm wondering who might have Block-type skill (my previous role), and I'm wondering if its the Evil this time, in this non-nightkilling situation. There may yet be a redirect, but I can't see it being as simple as connected to the same Primary/Secondary action that I possess (even in secret, but that's why I am willing to be roleflipped if everything else is stalemate).  Nobody is dying, and (so far) I see no sign of anybody being Cursed in any way, unless I'm yet to be Cultified or somesuch, in which case I'm already losing.


So, please do comment.  Hector, you better reveal what you can about your visit to Hector (whether you knew you were doing so or not) because we need to know before you end up fatally roleflipped as innocent. Maybe you can change my mind..?
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Starver

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2660 on: September 10, 2016, 08:46:38 am »

EBWOP, as my biggest error in the rush to summarise.
Hector, you better reveal what you can about your visit to Moonlit (whether you knew you were doing so or not) because we need to know before you end up fatally roleflipped as innocent. Maybe you can change my mind..?
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hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2661 on: September 10, 2016, 10:55:17 am »

I've been waiting so I don't doublepost... Disappointingly little conversation, still.

I don't understand Hector's going after Fallacy, unless Hector really doesn't want to roleflip me. I've tested you alll, actually, in stating qualities that associate with scum. I've even suggested reasons I might be scum. I specifically advised you that I might be scum and had no takers. But it's Hector that I'm most suspicious of.

There's so much wrong with this I hardly know where to start... so let's do it in order.

Just because you don't understand it, does that make it less legitimate? Why not ask me about my suspicions to clear up any misunderstanding you might have?

I didn't want to roleflip you because you seemed to think you would be more useful to town while still alive, and I agreed with that, implicitly - though it should've been fairly obvious why I thought you were at the very least not scum at that time as I was going after FoU, who completely ignored the discussion about my results from N1. Evidently FoU is not the only one ignoring things today.

You've said that I visited Moonlit N1 when that wasn't the action I took. This does add credence to my belief that something isn't right with my results from N1. Perhaps as you say, you were what did it, and my paranoia about scum doing it is unfounded.

Why should we vote you just because you say we should vote you? You don't get to decide what the other players do or don't find suspicious. That's patently ridiculous. You get to decide whether you find something suspicious, but then you don't seem to ask about it until the day is almost over, which I don't understand, so I'll ask a question about it.

How come you waited this long to ask about something that - from the information you had - you knew was wrong?

Hector thinks that Fallacy is worth voting on, D1, perhaps on N0 action, yet apparently (see below) retreats from this view N1 to test for Insane Copness or somesuch. Having 'discovered' Insane Copicity, which would invalidate any real N0 results, goes straight back to accusing, and now voting for, Fallacy.  And I've deliberately made myself look at least as guilty, in daytext, as Fallacy, by vouching for them, defending them, adding my own version of OMGUS-by-proxy...  I'm at least an ally. Unless you're convinced I'm a Jester, why avoid killing me? Unless you are sure my roleflip would help your opponents...

Had I found something on Fallacy N0 worth voting over, why did I wait until the end of the day to vote him? I'm not exactly shy about that kind of thing...

I've already said why I targeted myself and what happened, so I don't need to repeat it. I mentioned it as soon as I discovered it so it could be discussed, examined and then either disregarded or accepted so we could get back to actually finding scum as quickly as possible. Now I find that it may have been your fault, and you didn't seem to think it necessary to point that out when I brought it up. Previous question again.

I only know that my results on N1 were unreliable. This could've been as a result of your action, it could've been a result of a hidden auto, or it could've been something unrelated. How else do you propose I work toward ruling these things out?

And now we're back to you deciding what other players should and shouldn't find suspicious. You defending Fallacy was suspicious - indeed, the only thing I thought was suspicious in what you were doing - I did mention that, and did ask you about it, and I did say I disagreed that you were doing as much role-fishing as FoU. You answered in the next post, along with what I assume you think was the most suspicious thing you could say.

Newsflash! I didn't find it very suspicious.

Nor did, as you point out, anybody else. Why am I the most suspicious for not pressuring you about it? As you say, I'm continuing a case from D1 - being the only person with a case from D1 - while TBF and Moonlit haven't done anything of note during the day, beyond saying what results they got. Am I suspicious to continue that after being called out on it with an OMGUS and a crap case, while they're not for continuing their daytime idleness?

So, please do comment.  Hector, you better reveal what you can about your visit to Hector Moonlit (whether you knew you were doing so or not) because we need to know before you end up fatally roleflipped as innocent. Maybe you can change my mind..?

That's a lot more role-fishy than what you were supposedly doing before. What I can reveal might reveal more about Moonlit, if you did change my target, and I'm unwilling to do that in case he is town.

The result I got may not be related to him at all, but why take that chance? No thanks.
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.

Starver

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2662 on: September 10, 2016, 12:51:06 pm »

Why not ask me about my suspicions to clear up any misunderstanding you might have?
I've been subtly trying to get people to bring more stuff  (non-threatening, even totally fabricated, if they need to!) to the conversation. That was your cue as much as it was anyone's. Too subtly?

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I didn't want to roleflip you because you seemed to think you would be more useful to town while still alive
Even when I said "Almost tempted to get myself lynched, tell everything and let my roleflip confirm (or correct, if I'm squirreling) my own claim, at this rate." and went even further than that in the next post?

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You've said that I visited Moonlit N1 when that wasn't the action I took. This does add credence to my belief that something isn't right with my results from N1. Perhaps as you say, you were what did it, and my paranoia about scum doing it is unfounded.
I currently have two main theories. Firstly and easiest that you are lying, which makes you scummy. Secondarily is that I have a hidden redirect to my own skill that mislead you, which makes me a spoiling role, not a true investigator as I imagineb I am, much as per Fish was last turn, and one or other of us should probably be roleflipped if we can't trust my result not to mess up everyone's logic for the round.

(I would rather have not claimed at all, but the stagnation of conversation and the apparently passive Evil role is making me twitchy.)


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You get to decide whether you find something suspicious, but then you don't seem to ask about it until the day is almost over,
I was trying to get a response well before half the day-cycle had passed, you recall...
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which I don't understand, so I'll ask a question about it.

How come you waited this long to ask about something that - from the information you had - you knew was wrong?
I wanted the villain to dig their own grave. Even if it then needed my death to convince others of my sincerity in pointing out that this is what they've done. I wasn't actually expecting you to definitely be the one, but you're too good a player to have dug yourself into one so plainly whilst the true enemy has resisted my deliberate temptations, mis-hints, promises and threats, so I'm seizing on this. I had indeed planned to make my full reveal just before day-end (especially if under threat of personal Lynch), so it pains me to be described as acting as the day is almost over when I ended up acting more than a third of a (RL) day before deadline.

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Now I find that [personal role unreliability] may have been your fault, and you didn't seem to think it necessary to point that out when I brought it up.
I think you'll find I was fishing for more detail a number of times. (Just because I didn't label it with @everybody, let alone @you, didn't mean I wasn't asking you questions, increasingly unsubtly...)

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I only know that my results on N1 were unreliable. This could've been as a result of your action, it could've been a result of a hidden auto, or it could've been something unrelated. How else do you propose I work toward ruling these things out?
If I'm roleflipped, my currently full and frank 'knowledge' can be confirmed or seen in the true light of whatever there yet remains hidden even to me. As an openly outed investigator, I'm no less useful than the one who can only hint as to (perceived) facts that only the opposition knows to be true (or mistaken). The uncertainty in my role is the biggest disadvantage, either way, and a scummily-inclined player would prefer that to remain. (i.e. Either knowledge lost by the silencing of the inestigator-in-hiding, or no public revelation of the background to the public detective's raving proclamations.)

Alternately, you (assuming Town Investigator or approximate variant) now have knowledge about Moonlit that should rule them in/out of Town's suspicions if we can trust you (and trust me that this is what even happened). You've likely revealed enough to make you a target for true-scum, depending upon mechanism at their disposal, and your own flipping would authenticate any statement of yours regarding Mooonlit, thus more easily zeroing in on whoever the true enemy is from who remains. Given the Townie wincon (but not the Scum one) that seems like a reasonable-enough sacrifice to me, much as I do my own. YMMV, but there's got to bena good explanation for it. At least a hint. (See end if this post.)

(There's another conclusion that I've made, related to the above, but I'm waiting to see if another individual does/doesn't act upon it, themselves. No hints what it is and which it is, though!)

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You defending Fallacy was suspicious
If we're in league as Evil Cow-orkers, then Town had bigger problems than my potential self-sacrifice to further the cause of Evil.

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along with what I assume you think was the most suspicious thing you could say.
You flatter me. I merely voiced what I expected anybody to already be thinking... Almost disarmingly so.  Maybe that (the subtext, not the text) was the more suspicious, but then if you've gone that far in the stream of logic then you must consider yet a further level of bluff, and counter-bluff and counter-counter-bluff, and so on.   Suspicion = i2/2 + i4/4 + i6/6 + ... + i2n/2n????  (I think that probably converges, as n tends to infinity, but I haven't checked.)


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being the only person with a case from D1
I don't rate your case, compared to your usual standards (even the random fire approach). I would even guess that you have a target in your (Neutral?) wincon, and you suspect it to be Fallacy, so unwavering are you. But it stands out as odd. Which is not what I expect from your town-tell, even less than it is what I'd expect of your scum-tell. (Five and a half hours to change my mind about that, isn't it?)

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while TBF and Moonlit haven't done anything of note during the day,
Troubling, but for my own part I've found they've passed mini-tests that inspire me with confidence. Perhaps accidentally/unknowingly, but they've they've played the game and won more of my confidence, in a roughly Beyesian manner of adding up assumptions and later confirmations/refutations to those assumptions, as things go on.

(i.e. Even though silence is hurting them, their occasional activity has seemed more than useful.)

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That's a lot more role-fishy than what you were supposedly doing before. What I can reveal might reveal more about Moonlit, if you did change my target, and I'm unwilling to do that in case he is town.

If you truly suspect your information is useless, then your best chance is to see how useful my information is. Or resign yourself to being the Fish-role of last round (by your own hand or mine) if you don't have anything useful to say about it. Direct or meta- or meta-meta-...
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hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2663 on: September 10, 2016, 01:44:10 pm »

Why not ask me about my suspicions to clear up any misunderstanding you might have?
I've been subtly trying to get people to bring more stuff  (non-threatening, even totally fabricated, if they need to!) to the conversation. That was your cue as much as it was anyone's. Too subtly?

Nobody picked up on it, so yes, obviously :P

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I didn't want to roleflip you because you seemed to think you would be more useful to town while still alive
Even when I said "Almost tempted to get myself lynched, tell everything and let my roleflip confirm (or correct, if I'm squirreling) my own claim, at this rate." and went even further than that in the next post?

That means nothing. Considering that the Evil role has been solo for the entire rest of the game, it makes no sense for scum to offer themselves up like that. You really need to work on this bait thing, methinks...

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You've said that I visited Moonlit N1 when that wasn't the action I took. This does add credence to my belief that something isn't right with my results from N1. Perhaps as you say, you were what did it, and my paranoia about scum doing it is unfounded.
I currently have two main theories. Firstly and easiest that you are lying, which makes you scummy. Secondarily is that I have a hidden redirect to my own skill that mislead you, which makes me a spoiling role, not a true investigator as I imagineb I am, much as per Fish was last turn, and one or other of us should probably be roleflipped if we can't trust my result not to mess up everyone's logic for the round.

(I would rather have not claimed at all, but the stagnation of conversation and the apparently passive Evil role is making me twitchy.)

Like I've been saying, you may not have influenced my result in the slightest. I was voting FoU D1, so if he is scum, who do you think he's going to target during the night? Some weird shit went down, and I've been saying all along I don't know what caused it. All I know is something isn't right.

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You get to decide whether you find something suspicious, but then you don't seem to ask about it until the day is almost over,
I was trying to get a response well before half the day-cycle had passed, you recall...
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which I don't understand, so I'll ask a question about it.

How come you waited this long to ask about something that - from the information you had - you knew was wrong?
I wanted the villain to dig their own grave. Even if it then needed my death to convince others of my sincerity in pointing out that this is what they've done. I wasn't actually expecting you to definitely be the one, but you're too good a player to have dug yourself into one so plainly whilst the true enemy has resisted my deliberate temptations, mis-hints, promises and threats, so I'm seizing on this. I had indeed planned to make my full reveal just before day-end (especially if under threat of personal Lynch), so it pains me to be described as acting as the day is almost over when I ended up acting more than a third of a (RL) day before deadline.

7 hours, aye? You had 41 before that, almost the entirety of which you knew the action I said I performed wasn't the action you were reported that I performed. You could easily have said that me targeting myself wasn't the information you had without revealing anything else about your role. Considering the dearth of activity we've had this day, and FoU's protestations that my vote on him in the same time frame on D1 was me trying to speed through a lynch, I'm afraid I have to call bullshit on you.

Considering nobody else has taken the bait on any of these temptations, hints, promises, and threats, or even mentioned them in passing, I think we can say that they were not the work of a master-baiter. /pun

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Now I find that [personal role unreliability] may have been your fault, and you didn't seem to think it necessary to point that out when I brought it up.
I think you'll find I was fishing for more detail a number of times. (Just because I didn't label it with @everybody, let alone @you, didn't mean I wasn't asking you questions, increasingly unsubtly...)

Clearly everybody missed them. Do point them out please.

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I only know that my results on N1 were unreliable. This could've been as a result of your action, it could've been a result of a hidden auto, or it could've been something unrelated. How else do you propose I work toward ruling these things out?
If I'm roleflipped, my currently full and frank 'knowledge' can be confirmed or seen in the true light of whatever there yet remains hidden even to me. As an openly outed investigator, I'm no less useful than the one who can only hint as to (perceived) facts that only the opposition knows to be true (or mistaken). The uncertainty in my role is the biggest disadvantage, either way, and a scummily-inclined player would prefer that to remain. (i.e. Either knowledge lost by the silencing of the inestigator-in-hiding, or no public revelation of the background to the public detective's raving proclamations.)

What uncertainty regarding your role? You can tell if someone is visiting, and thus performed an action on someone, and also tell if another person was visited, and thus had an action performed on them.

Moonlit, who I visited according to your results, doesn't appear to have had anything terribly terrible happen to them, at least as far as they've reported. Given your penchant for assumptions, I would hope that would tell you my action is at the very least not malign.

Alternately, you (assuming Town Investigator or approximate variant) now have knowledge about Moonlit that should rule them in/out of Town's suspicions if we can trust you (and trust me that this is what even happened). You've likely revealed enough to make you a target for true-scum, depending upon mechanism at their disposal, and your own flipping would authenticate any statement of yours regarding Mooonlit, thus more easily zeroing in on whoever the true enemy is from who remains. Given the Townie wincon (but not the Scum one) that seems like a reasonable-enough sacrifice to me, much as I do my own. YMMV, but there's got to bena good explanation for it. At least a hint. (See end if this post.)

From this I would have to assume you know what my action is, else I can kick the weak support out from under it and completely invalidate it. What is my action?

(There's another conclusion that I've made, related to the above, but I'm waiting to see if another individual does/doesn't act upon it, themselves. No hints what it is and which it is, though!)

That you're neutral and making up nonsense to satisfy your wincon? :P

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You defending Fallacy was suspicious
If we're in league as Evil Cow-orkers, then Town had bigger problems than my potential self-sacrifice to further the cause of Evil.

Suspicious /=/ damning

In case it escaped your notice, I was distracted by something I thought was more suspicious. Like I said, we each get to decide what we find suspicious and otherwise.

Just because I think FoU is being hugely suspicious does not mean I expect everyone else to agree, so I felt you were offering a dissenting opinion, but not necessarily one that I felt needed challenged at that point.

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along with what I assume you think was the most suspicious thing you could say.
You flatter me. I merely voiced what I expected anybody to already be thinking... Almost disarmingly so.  Maybe that (the subtext, not the text) was the more suspicious, but then if you've gone that far in the stream of logic then you must consider yet a further level of bluff, and counter-bluff and counter-counter-bluff, and so on.   Suspicion = i2/2 + i4/4 + i6/6 + ... + i2n/2n????  (I think that probably converges, as n tends to infinity, but I haven't checked.)

You've hit the nail on the head there, except with the suspicion part. Just because you voice something you think everyone was thinking, doesn't mean they were thinking it. Not only that, over-thinking it leads to WIFOM. I don't like wine, so you may keep it.

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being the only person with a case from D1
I don't rate your case, compared to your usual standards (even the random fire approach). I would even guess that you have a target in your (Neutral?) wincon, and you suspect it to be Fallacy, so unwavering are you. But it stands out as odd. Which is not what I expect from your town-tell, even less than it is what I'd expect of your scum-tell. (Five and a half hours to change my mind about that, isn't it?)

Well the only other person you seem to think suspicious beyond me is yourself, and I've already told you what I think of that. What reason would I have for pursuing either Moonlit or TBF over FoU?

...

Trick question! If I have to pursue them for those reasons, why aren't you?

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while TBF and Moonlit haven't done anything of note during the day,
Troubling, but for my own part I've found they've passed mini-tests that inspire me with confidence. Perhaps accidentally/unknowingly, but they've they've played the game and won more of my confidence, in a roughly Beyesian manner of adding up assumptions and later confirmations/refutations to those assumptions, as things go on.

(i.e. Even though silence is hurting them, their occasional activity has seemed more than useful.)

How sure are you of the efficacy of these tests?

What have they said that is useful?

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That's a lot more role-fishy than what you were supposedly doing before. What I can reveal might reveal more about Moonlit, if you did change my target, and I'm unwilling to do that in case he is town.

If you truly suspect your information is useless, then your best chance is to see how useful my information is. Or resign yourself to being the Fish-role of last round (by your own hand or mine) if you don't have anything useful to say about it. Direct or meta- or meta-meta-...

All I can truly say is the results I received from N1 are not right for what I did. This does not mean that all my results are invalid, though it would be quite foolish not to consider that possibility wouldn't you say?

Once again, my results could have been manipulated by someone who is not you and is not me. There are three other players in the game, why are you reducing it to just you and I?



I'm slightly miffed that TBF promised a reason for voting me, and FoU has conveniently disappeared since voting me. 2 hours to go.

gj gais
Logged
Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2664 on: September 10, 2016, 02:15:27 pm »

Hector:Why is it only your N1 results that are suspicious?
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hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2665 on: September 10, 2016, 02:16:54 pm »

I targeted myself. The results I got were not the results I expected.

I don't know if my results from N0 are wrong, because I didn't know what results to expect.
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2666 on: September 10, 2016, 02:23:35 pm »

Results weren't what you expected in that they were wrong, or incomplete?
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hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2667 on: September 10, 2016, 02:26:15 pm »

It was wrong. As far as I'm aware, I get complete information.
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2668 on: September 10, 2016, 02:28:08 pm »

Huh.

Let me check who I targeted again.
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hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 17
« Reply #2669 on: September 10, 2016, 02:30:37 pm »

You said you targeted me earlier.

Bear in mind that I thought I targeted myself, and Starver says I targeted Moonlit. My results could be entirely accurate for Moonlit for all I know.
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.
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