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[fillipk]

No scum do it to and honestly it doesn't matter as much which one of us three we lynch today, but because it looks like it's going to be me I'm pointing out the main cause of concern on the other two people.

[origamiscienceguy]

Doctor claiming would also be a bad thing. The scum would instead kill the doc while Hector would have a 1/3 chance of finding scum... Not a great plan.

Hector, I know I made a mistake for suggesting everybody to no lynch. But what exactly have I done that is scummy to you? Trying to figure out which course of action has the highest statistical chance of killing the scum is not something the scum would do.

[hector13]

Why not? Stats don't mean anything. They/you basically laid out what could happen given multiple variables. Scum are happy to do that because it makes it look as though they're pondering the game without really bringing anything to the table. It's not scumhunting is basically what I'm getting at there.

Not sure why Fillipk is voting DA though, I didn't quite get it from his posts. Could you explain in more detail why you think DA is scum, and why this means you're not voting for OSG, your other scumspect?

[fillipk]

Doctor claiming would also be a bad thing. The scum would instead kill the doc while Hector would have a 1/3 chance of finding scum... Not a great plan.

Hector, I know I made a mistake for suggesting everybody to no lynch. But what exactly have I done that is scummy to you? Trying to figure out which course of action has the highest statistical chance of killing the scum is not something the scum would do.

First Doc claiming would be a great idea because it would guarantee a town win, Hector, Moonlit, and the Jailor would be confirmed town leaving 2 people as possible scum, lynch one today and one tomorrow. Unvote


OSG your right why am I voting Deus when OSG is much more scummier, not that it matters with me being the lynch target.

[fillipk]

Even if Moonlit is jailor, the cop and jailor could coordinate who to lynch, invest, and jail.  If there is a doc town auto wins, but they haven't claimed yet so it's unlikely that there is one.

[hector13]

Er... that's not what I said. And now OSG is the lynch target.

Looks like you're not paying attention to the game Fillipk. Why did you initially vote DA?

Why are you voting OSG now?

Two different questions, so I want two different answers.

Jailor shouldn't claim. Presently I'm the prime NK target because I can out scum, either directly or through process of elimination. Jailor can stop the kill in two ways, which is much more of a problem for scum. Don't do it just yet, if you exist.

[origamiscienceguy]

EVERYBODY: Why am I scummy? All I did was advocate a no-lynch and explain exactly why I thought that was the best course of action for town. Then I admitted I made a mistake and corrected myself. Instead finding a better option. In what way did I ever play as if I was scum?? Trying to find the highest statistical chance for town to win IS NOT what the scum would do.

[hector13]

Why not? You never answered that.

[origamiscienceguy]

Why not? You never answered that.

If you are the scum, you don't try to lead the town down the path which gives them the highest statistical likelihood of killing you. I would think that is easy to understand. You would stay silent and hope they don't find it on their own.

[hector13]

The unfortunate thing is that the statistics don't have much to do with the game. It's all well and good saying "if we have a jailor we should do this" but we might not have a jailor at all. There's a statistical chance that the scum would benefit from pointing out the best course of action for the existence of a jailor when there's a chance the jailor isn't present, 'cause it ceases to be the best course of action.

It's a fallacious argument. Just because some is statistically likely doesn't mean it's going to happen.

[origamiscienceguy]

And Extend

I think I can convince you guys. Please let me explain more if you need.

[hector13]

EBWOP

That "some" in the last bit was meant to be "something".

[hector13]

Can we get a vote count, TDS?

[origamiscienceguy]

Even if all the math worked out somehow that doing some action if there was a doc would be better for town and if there was no doc was better for scum, Why would the scum even do that since they are falling into the same fallacy you just mentioned since they wouldn't know who the doc even was. (If they did, the doc would be dead. And the rolecop is dead)

[fillipk]

OSG your in no danger why extend.

Did you really try to give us the highest winrate?  I mean if you think about your plan we have three options today, three options the next day, and three options on the day it actually matters cause scum will kill invest and then confirmed townie, that's a horrible plan if you even think about it, so did you not think about it, cause if you did walk me through how you though it was a good idea, because all you are saying right now is you tried but you didn't, you either half-assed it or missed the obvious, so which was it?