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[origamiscienceguy]

Well I didn't want to do it, but wasting time isn't a good thing.

I'm the cop. Moonlit is town, investigated N2.

Investigated Hazard/Teneb N1, hence the reason for voting them D2 while telling off OSG for voting them for lurking.

That was a really unwise thing to do, Hector. Here's why:
Assuming that nobody counterclaims, then the scum will almost certainly try to attack you to make sure you are silent no matter what, either you will die, or the doctor (if there is one) will save and role block you. This will lead to both town power roles essentially useless for the remainder of the game. Leaving the game to MYLO. That is actually the best case scenario. If there is no doctor, you will be killed next night, and the game would be in LYLO. If the doctor tries to pick a random person and hope that they roleblock the scum, then you die and we are still in LYLO with only a marginally increased chance of the doc finding scum, assuming there is a doc. If you had not claimed, you and the doc (if there is one) would get an extra chance to find scum along with the lynches.
Of course, there is always the possibility that you are scum preying on the 1/3 chance that there is no cop. Although that is quite a small chance.

In short, I believe you are the cop, but it was a really dumb thing to claim right now.

Hector:Did you consider everything I said before making your decision to claim?

No Lynch I think everybody should vote no lynch since our cop is now useless and no lynch gives the town some infomation (like if there is a doc and if Hector was telling the tuth) while still giving us the same amount of lynches as we would otherwise get.

[Deus Asmoth]

Someone told me to.

It seems less likely that scum would choose to kill their own. Really, it's your fault for not voting for Teneb.

You have no idea how much you're annoying me right now.

Voting for someone just because they have the most votes is not a good thing. Look at the people who voted for Teneb. The cop and two people voting for him for lurking. Yeah, I can see how that clearly should have convinced everyone to lynch him

Have you ever heard of the concept of bussing and how it's a thing that scum do?

[hector13]

This turned into a wall. Damn...

Goodness, so many things to say to that.

That was a really unwise thing to do, Hector. Here's why:
Assuming that nobody counterclaims

Who's going to CC? Only scum. If they do and I get lynched, they lose tomorrow. So... false.

then the scum will almost certainly try to attack you to make sure you are silent no matter what, either you will die

Which means we have a confirmed townie tomorrow... and if Moonlit dies, I get an opportunity to investigate and maybe some credit for outing him as a townie.

or the doctor (if there is one) will save and role block you. This will lead to both town power roles essentially useless for the remainder of the game.

Another falsehood. The jailor will know that I'm the target, yes, but that means they then get to choose between three of you guys to find the scum. What would be the point in protecting me knowing it would force me to be unable to act, when choosing one of the others will eliminate someone as a suspect tomorrow almost as well as if I had been able to investigate? If I don't die, they likely found the scum. Though this is a WIFOM argument, as the scum could just fail to act and then fakeclaim jailor.

Leaving the game to MYLO. That is actually the best case scenario. If there is no doctor, you will be killed next night, and the game would be in LYLO. If the doctor tries to pick a random person and hope that they roleblock the scum, then you die and we are still in LYLO with only a marginally increased chance of the doc finding scum, assuming there is a doc.

Not really. There's a 1 in 2 chance of the jailor targeting scum during the night, assuming they believe my claim, meaning they won't target myself or Moonlit. This leaves the choice between you and DA (assuming fillipk is lynched today, which I'd really like to happen please) which would mean, in the event of a NK, the other one is scum - excusing no shenanigans with choosing not to kill.

If you had not claimed, you and the doc (if there is one) would get an extra chance to find scum along with the lynches.

There still is a chance, man. There's only one mafiakill. I'll likely be the target, so the jailor might stop it by targeting whoever of you three doesn't get lynched. Again, excusing no shenanigans.

Of course, there is always the possibility that you are scum preying on the 1/3 chance that there is no cop. Although that is quite a small chance.

Keeping an open mind; good.

In short, I believe you are the cop, but it was a really dumb thing to claim right now.

No Lynch I think everybody should vote no lynch since our cop is now useless and no lynch gives the town some infomation (like if there is a doc and if Hector was telling the tuth) while still giving us the same amount of lynches as we would otherwise get.

Another falsehood! A big one, too. Earlier in that post you claim that being in MYLO would be the best situation, yet you want a no lynch? Do explain, mang.

Then you say a no lynch gives the town information. False! A no lynch gives the town no information:

- An NK means either the jailor missed the scum or the target, or that there is no jailor!

- No NK means that the jailor found either the target or the scum, or the scum decided not to NK!

- No role flip means no analysis of someone's previous posts!

Multiple explanations for either result means no useful information, and no role flip is no bueno.

THEN! Goodness, what do you mean a no lynch will give us the same amount of lynches as actually lynching someone!? We have two opportunities to lynch just now, today and tomorrow (rocket surgery!) but if we choose to no lynch now, when we don't actually need to, then we get nothing. No information from a flip (unless there's an NK, but I'm now Scum Enemy No. 1 and have already told you what I know) the night actions won't be able to be analysed (though doing that in general is just a ticket to WIFOM City) and we get the joys of maybe a fakeclaiming jailor tomorrow, muddying the water further.

I claimed because there's been a lot of attention on Moonlit today, and obviously I know he's town so I'd rather we focus on other people, the quickest way to do that was to claim.

I'm not liking what you were saying OSG. Make your response a good one, else that blue'll turn red.

PPE: being on Teneb's wagon is not a defense:

Have you ever heard of the concept of bussing and how it's a thing that scum do?

[fillipk]

No actually we need to lynch someone for less targets OSG, Mafia will either target cop or confirmed town so we lynch me you or Deus, basically for more info to work with.

[origamiscienceguy]

That was a really unwise thing to do, Hector. Here's why:
Assuming that nobody counterclaims

Who's going to CC? Only scum. If they do and I get lynched, they lose tomorrow. So... false.

That's the point. My whole analysis was based on nobody counterclaiming. If someone counterclaims, that would be great. If nobody counterclaims, we have the bad situation I mentioned.

then the scum will almost certainly try to attack you to make sure you are silent no matter what, either you will die

Which means we have a confirmed townie tomorrow... and if Moonlit dies, I get an opportunity to investigate and maybe some credit for outing him as a townie.

What!? If you die, you will already be a confirmed townie. If the scum kill you, what does it matter if you are a confirmed townie!? You'd be dead.

or the doctor (if there is one) will save and role block you. This will lead to both town power roles essentially useless for the remainder of the game.

Another falsehood. The jailor will know that I'm the target, yes, but that means they then get to choose between three of you guys to find the scum. What would be the point in protecting me knowing it would force me to be unable to act, when choosing one of the others will eliminate someone as a suspect tomorrow almost as well as if I had been able to investigate? If I don't die, they likely found the scum. Though this is a WIFOM argument, as the scum could just fail to act and then fakeclaim jailor.

If the doc (assuming there is one) does not protect you, then you will still die and still produce no more investigations. Had you not claimed, you would get another investigation and the doc would get a chance as well. Therefore, it would have been better if you did not claim. Either way, both situations allow the doc (if there is one) to get potential information in. If you hadn't claimed, you would have gotten an investigation as well.

Leaving the game to MYLO. That is actually the best case scenario. If there is no doctor, you will be killed next night, and the game would be in LYLO. If the doctor tries to pick a random person and hope that they roleblock the scum, then you die and we are still in LYLO with only a marginally increased chance of the doc finding scum, assuming there is a doc.

Not really. There's a 1 in 2 chance of the jailor targeting scum during the night, assuming they believe my claim, meaning they won't target myself or Moonlit. This leaves the choice between you and DA (assuming fillipk is lynched today, which I'd really like to happen please) which would mean, in the event of a NK, the other one is scum - excusing no shenanigans with choosing not to kill.

You are also forgetting that there is only a 1/2 chance of a doctor even existing. So a 1/4 chance of doctor finding scum. Wheres if you AND the doctor could use the abilities (by you NOT claiming), there is a 33% chance of you finding scum and a .166% chance of the doc existing and finding scum. Which totals to .5% chance of finding scum. In essence, you just halved the chance of finding scum by your claim.

If you had not claimed, you and the doc (if there is one) would get an extra chance to find scum along with the lynches.

There still is a chance, man. There's only one mafiakill. I'll likely be the target, so the jailor might stop it by targeting whoever of you three doesn't get lynched. Again, excusing no shenanigans.

See above for mathematical calculatiness

In short, I believe you are the cop, but it was a really dumb thing to claim right now.

No Lynch I think everybody should vote no lynch since our cop is now useless and no lynch gives the town some infomation (like if there is a doc and if Hector was telling the tuth) while still giving us the same amount of lynches as we would otherwise get.

Another falsehood! A big one, too. Earlier in that post you claim that being in MYLO would be the best situation, yet you want a no lynch? Do explain, mang.

Then you say a no lynch gives the town information. False! A no lynch gives the town no information:

- An NK means either the jailor missed the scum or the target, or that there is no jailor!

- No NK means that the jailor found either the target or the scum, or the scum decided not to NK!

- No role flip means no analysis of someone's previous posts!

Multiple explanations for either result means no useful information, and no role flip is no bueno.

THEN! Goodness, what do you mean a no lynch will give us the same amount of lynches as actually lynching someone!? We have two opportunities to lynch just now, today and tomorrow (rocket surgery!) but if we choose to no lynch now, when we don't actually need to, then we get nothing. No information from a flip (unless there's an NK, but I'm now Scum Enemy No. 1 and have already told you what I know) the night actions won't be able to be analysed (though doing that in general is just a ticket to WIFOM City) and we get the joys of maybe a fakeclaiming jailor tomorrow, muddying the water further.

I was excluding today's lynch in those posts.

However, I do realize I was wrong about the no lynch thing, good job there. Unvote

I claimed because there's been a lot of attention on Moonlit today, and obviously I know he's town so I'd rather we focus on other people, the quickest way to do that was to claim.

Moonlit was in very little danger of being lynched, so I don't see how letting town know that is of benefit considering the detrimental effects I mentioned.

I hope I answered all your questions. Hector, I believe your claim but please answer my question: Were you aware of the detrimental effects I mentioned your claim could have?

[Deus Asmoth]

Ok, so in essence we almost certainly have a cop that no one has counter claimed (it's possible that he's scum gambling, but doing it on a 33-50% shot seems unlikely) and one confirmed townie out of five players, and two lynches to hit scum. fillipk has also claimed VT. Not an awful starting point. Out of the three other players, I know I'm town and fillipk's behaviour today doesn't seem like scum to me. So that leaves OSG. Also of note is that he only voted for Teneb a few hours before the day ended, presumably thinking that TMS's vote would be counted and his push for a no lynch indicates that he's not putting a lot of thought in for the town's benefit.

[hector13]

Yes I was aware. I'm also aware that putting pressure on Moonlit is a fruitless task since I know he's town, and also that Moonlit has a habit of not thinking about what he says sometimes, which can make him appear quite scummy.

This way we can pressure you and DA and fillipk some more, because he's been lurking for a bit. I'm not sure about fillipk being scum, indeed you're making it difficult for me to think they are, so I need to ponder upon things further.

The confirmed townie thing is in relation to Moonlit. If I die, they're confirmed 'cause I'll flip cop, and have already said they investigate as town.

Anyway, your maths is wrong. There's a 67% chance of a jailor existing, 2/3 in your parlance. But that's taking things absolutely, rather than relatively. If no doctor exists, there is 0 chance of them finding scum. If they do exist, there's a 1 in 2 chance if we lynch town today, 1 in 3 if we no lynch - assuming they believe me and the scum kill someone. Speculating on their existence isn't helpful though, so let's stop.

You're experienced enough to know these things without me having to tell you... so I'm going to vote OSG until I can be convinced otherwise.

[Deus Asmoth]

(There's a 2/3 chance of a jailer being in the game before the game begins. Since we know that there's a cop in the game, 50% of the possible configurations have a jailer in them.)

[origamiscienceguy]

You exist. That leaves two possibilities: Just a cop, and Cop and Doctor. It is impossible for there to be just a doc when a cop exists.

[hector13]

Well it doesn't matter anyway, as I said, speculation on that is pointless, since we can't be sure.

[origamiscienceguy]

I agree. I believe you are the cop. I gave that list to try to convince people to vote for no lynch, which I now realize was a mistake. If you have any more questions about why I did what I did, please ask. Otherwise it also doesn't really matter since I was wrong about the no lynch thing anyways.

I guess my vote is going back to Fillipk

[hector13]

Well I didn't want to do it, but wasting time isn't a good thing.

I'm the cop. Moonlit is town, investigated N2.

Investigated Hazard/Teneb N1, hence the reason for voting them D2 while telling off OSG for voting them for lurking.

That was a really unwise thing to do, Hector. Here's why:
Assuming that nobody counterclaims, then the scum will almost certainly try to attack you to make sure you are silent no matter what, either you will die, or the doctor (if there is one) will save and role block you. This will lead to both town power roles essentially useless for the remainder of the game. Leaving the game to MYLO. That is actually the best case scenario. If there is no doctor, you will be killed next night, and the game would be in LYLO. If the doctor tries to pick a random person and hope that they roleblock the scum, then you die and we are still in LYLO with only a marginally increased chance of the doc finding scum, assuming there is a doc. If you had not claimed, you and the doc (if there is one) would get an extra chance to find scum along with the lynches.
Of course, there is always the possibility that you are scum preying on the 1/3 chance that there is no cop. Although that is quite a small chance.

In short, I believe you are the cop, but it was a really dumb thing to claim right now.

Hector:Did you consider everything I said before making your decision to claim?

No Lynch I think everybody should vote no lynch since our cop is now useless and no lynch gives the town some infomation (like if there is a doc and if Hector was telling the tuth) while still giving us the same amount of lynches as we would otherwise get.

The bolded part and your desire for a no lynch appear to be mutually exclusive, so I'd like you to explain that for me.

If you already have done, apologies, but would you mind pointing it out for me? It's late, and I'm tired, so may not have read things properly.

Moving your vote (as far as I can tell) also ties the vote between yourself and fillipk. Not really a change from voting a no lynch, but an understandable move nonetheless.

[origamiscienceguy]

I was thinking that having a no lynch would turn the other situations (also LYLO) into MYLO's Which, if the town did no lynch again, would give the doc 2 chances of finding scum, which would mean that the doc could investigate twice. However, I later realized that the chances of that actually giving any benefit is extremely slim: There would have to be a doc, the doc would have a 1/3 chance of dying to the mafia's nightkill, and even if the doc survived that, the scum would counterclaim doc and leave a 1/2 chance of the doc getting lynched. So the benefit of an extra doc night would be much less than a town lynch.

That was my though process about why I thought it was a good idea to no lynch, and then how I realized I made a mistake.

OOC: You and I seem to get into conversations like this is every mafia game we play together. It's kind of funny.

[fillipk]

I don't think there is a doctor but I think Deus is scum, Lets be honest it's down to me, Deus, and OSG, I know my role so for me it's between OSG and Deus and Deus has just been less active, however you guys have every right to lynch me, I tunnelvisioned on day 1, AFK and awkward day 2, and with Teneb dead and flipped Mafia it makes me look like I'm scum for FoSing him and not voting, however while I think Deus is scum, OSG was the last person to vote Teneb and he did this when he saw Teneb was guarenteed to be lynched, just something to consider.

Unvote,   Deus Asmoth

[hector13]

Why are you pointing out scummy things OSG did while voting for someone else..?

Particularly when you seem to be voting DA for inactivity. Is being inactive something only scum do?