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[Teneb]

Won't they just reform in a "not biker gang" biker gang

Leather Vest Enthusiast Gant. They have bikes, but are totally not bikers.

[Reelya]

If you think that's a shit law look at the end result of Australia's "biker" crackdown. In NSW, the largest state, they passed a "consorting" law where you can be jailed for up to three years for just being friends with two people who've previously served time for any offense, no matter how minor. All supposedly to stop bikers, but with predictable effects of people who've committed no crime being jailed merely because of who their friends are.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/guilt-by-association/news-story/92e62abb53bf98d7e515846a89dbc81b?sv=a2cce6915e55322fdfe14c61cb314024

Naturally, you can see how dangerous such a law is for democracy. If the police arrest and convict my friends for protesting, can i subsequently be jailed for speaking to them? Legally, yes. Luckily I moved out of that state about the same time that law was passed (I have several friends up there who've done time, so it's possible ...).

[Kagus]

Won't they just reform in a "not biker gang" biker gang

Leather Vest Enthusiast Gant. They have bikes, but are totally not bikers.

Isn't the term "Bike-curious"?

[redwallzyl]

I can't wait to say 'I told you so' when they end up not leaving.

[hector13]

They’re going to leave, they’re just not going to get a deal, which’ll fuck everything up.

The last few months you’ve had Gavin Williamson, defence secretary, say he’s going to demand more money or break Theresa May, you’ve had Boris Johnson, foreign minister, say “fuck business” in response to Airbus et. al say they’ll cut back in the UK if they get no deal, and Michael Gove, environment secretary, tear up a report that he disagrees with and tell a tabloid about it, among other things I can’t recall off the top of my head.

The government can’t get their shit together less than 4 months before they need to have a deal in place. It would be funny if it wasn’t so fucking stupid.

[Loud Whispers]

According to the EU, it's exceptionally unlikely the UK will be able to secure a deal with them before October.

If that's correct, then we've got a few choices it seems: Instantly capitulate and drop to a Norway style model or similar, crash out and watch the economy go to shit, or cancel the whole thing.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-withdrawal-deal-october-december-european-council-a8423061.html

Nah fam, just you watch

2019 will come around and we'll enter the transitionary post-Brexit "Brexit" initial emergency negotiation period to negotiate Brexit proper, after that the preliminary penultimate Brexit consultation period, followed by the finalization of the realization of the envisaged post-concluded-Brexit negotiations, to be indicated by the Brexit ratification interrogation quantification legislation constipation

That pretty much sums up how it feels to me.
With any bloody luck, we'll just go "Fuck it, we're staying" but we presently have a bus full of kids and a suicidal busdriver.

For me my hopes rest on 'Fuck it, we've left' but the bus is stationary and full of ironic jihad

[ChairmanPoo]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/01/nhs-preparing-for-disruption-to-supplies-from-no-deal-brexit

I've decided that TheDwarf1 and greatorder will be my local deputies and enforcers in my upcoming aspirin-and-potatoes smuggling cartel. I have a vacant for LoudWhispers as a dealer if he's willing to do the streets

[Loud Whispers]

Lost a lot of good friends in the aspirin-paracetomol turf wars of 2008.

[Loud Whispers]

Cool. How much am I getting paid? I mean, gotta remember the pound will be worth about 3x as much as the Zimbabwean dollar after Brexit.

You do not know how bad things can become

[smjjames]

According to the EU, it's exceptionally unlikely the UK will be able to secure a deal with them before October.

If that's correct, then we've got a few choices it seems: Instantly capitulate and drop to a Norway style model or similar, crash out and watch the economy go to shit, or cancel the whole thing.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-withdrawal-deal-october-december-european-council-a8423061.html

I wonder how much of a shock to the global economy metaphorically taking a (laser sharp, for the sake of the metaphor) guillotine to the big cable of stuff that connects the UK to the EU. There was a limited version of what would happen after 9/11 and that created a lot of havoc, and that voluntary one only lasted a couple weeks before it got too painful to the economy to continue it.

If Britain does do the hard no-deal exit, it won't have the luxury of going back if it gets too painful.

They’re going to leave, they’re just not going to get a deal, which’ll fuck everything up.

The last few months you’ve had Gavin Williamson, defence secretary, say he’s going to demand more money or break Theresa May, you’ve had Boris Johnson, foreign minister, say “fuck business” in response to Airbus et. al say they’ll cut back in the UK if they get no deal, and Michael Gove, environment secretary, tear up a report that he disagrees with and tell a tabloid about it, among other things I can’t recall off the top of my head.

The government can’t get their shit together less than 4 months before they need to have a deal in place. It would be funny if it wasn’t so fucking stupid.

I thought Airbus was like, the iconic British airline manufacturer? it'd be like forcing Boeing out of the US.

Feeling a little skittish aren't you, Britain? lol

[Culise]

I thought Airbus was like, the iconic British airline manufacturer? it'd be like forcing Boeing out of the US.

Kind of; they're a joint project between the UK, France, and Germany, with the ultimate origins being French and German (50% shareholder split between Aérospatiale and Deutsche Airbus; the British didn't join in until almost 10 years later).  You may also be thinking of BAE Systems, or British Aerospace Systems: the second-largest defense contractor in the world and no lightweight.

[smjjames]

Looks like Northern Ireland, or more specifically, the Northern Ireland - Republic of Ireland border, is causing severe problems as far as Brexit goes, because it's leading to a ticking political time bomb.

Basically the problem is how to protect the integrity of the open border in Ireland. Right now, Brussels is giving two options, stay in the EU market in a Norway Plus type deal, or leave, minus Northern Ireland. The catch here is that, according to the article, the only way to preserve the NI-RoI borders and protect the integrity of it's (not sure who the article is referring to here, England?) market, Britain has to give up sovereignity of NI (Scotland is gonna scream "WHAT ABOUT ME DANGIT!?!?" for sure).

Had to read the article a few times to be sure that's what it was saying, because being forced to give up a chunk of it's territory usually takes a war to happen. No idea what that would mean, if say, Italy were to exit, unless it's something unique to Brexit because of Northern Ireland.

[ChairmanPoo]

...politico.eu is far from being the best site to get informed about this stuff, smjjames. It's pretty much a russianbot site. Hence the fact that you can find two articles saying contrary things on the same day 

To summarize

Basically the problem is how to protect the integrity of the open border in Ireland.

Long story short, but yeah, GFA

Right now, Brussels is giving two options,

Not really. Brussels is asking the British goverment to present a Brexit plan stating what they want. As it stands, the British goverment has two official suggestions: custom partnership and max fac. Neither is considered viable by the EU

stay in the EU market in a Norway Plus type deal

No. This is what some in the British goverment muse they want. AKA: Stay in the single market but without the Four Freedoms. Goes without saying this is not regarded as viable by the EU.

What they could do is stay in the EEA in a Norway or Swiss style deal. That would keep them in the single market, but crucially, would also preserve the Four Freedoms (and in the case of a Norway model, the ECJ). Which aren't acceptable to Theresa May's goverment.

or leave, minus Northern Ireland

Not quite. The EU suggested as a backstop, should no other solution be presented, a fallback position in which NI, while being still British, would stay in the Single Market. This was not acceptable to the British goverment because in that scenario they'd have to keep NI outside British customs.
The British goverment counteroffer was to make the backstop apply to all the UK, but this was not acceptable to the EU because it'd be basically a backdoor for a Norway Plus deal.

The catch here is that, according to the article, the only way to preserve the NI-RoI borders and protect the integrity of it's (not sure who the article is referring to here, England?) market, Britain has to give up sovereignity of NI

This is the bit that is pure fake news  . Neither the EU nor the British goverment are actually suggesting sovereignity changes.

Had to read the article a few times to be sure that's what it was saying, because being forced to give up a chunk of it's territory usually takes a war to happen

See above

No idea what that would mean, if say, Italy were to exit, unless it's something unique to Brexit because of Northern Ireland.

The whole backstop thing is because of Irish politics, which I will defer to Irish people to explain, as these days I struggle even trying to explain Spanish politics 

[Loud Whispers]

Looks like Northern Ireland, or more specifically, the Northern Ireland - Republic of Ireland border, is causing severe problems as far as Brexit goes, because it's leading to a ticking political time bomb.

Basically the problem is how to protect the integrity of the open border in Ireland. Right now, Brussels is giving two options, stay in the EU market in a Norway Plus type deal, or leave, minus Northern Ireland. The catch here is that, according to the article, the only way to preserve the NI-RoI borders and protect the integrity of it's (not sure who the article is referring to here, England?) market, Britain has to give up sovereignity of NI (Scotland is gonna scream "WHAT ABOUT ME DANGIT!?!?" for sure).

Had to read the article a few times to be sure that's what it was saying, because being forced to give up a chunk of it's territory usually takes a war to happen. No idea what that would mean, if say, Italy were to exit, unless it's something unique to Brexit because of Northern Ireland.

Spoiler: obligatory (click to show/hide)

The Ireland-Northern Ireland situation is pretty simple* for the immediate future, the Republic of Ireland is not a member of the schengen area nor is Northern Ireland or the UK. The UK and Ireland have had de facto free movement for the past century of peace time in their own bilateral agreements and cooperation, whilst both have maintained the same hesitance towards entangling one's nation with EU institutions. Ireland does not have land connections to the EU through Northern Ireland, its major connection is to Northern Ireland & the UK itself (which is something I would be intrigued to see change, if the EU built a tunnel connecting Ireland to the UK, Ireland would have a direct land connection to Europe through overland railway and the channel tunnel).

Regarding this, in an unusual display of unanimous sanity, Irish, British and EU leaders have all agreed to maintain the status quo in order to not provoke new troubles.

Green = Common Travel Area
Blue = Schengen Area
Grey = Dudes who use borders when their governments exist
*Thus it is simple for the purposes of travel arrangements. Everything stays the same in that regard

But this issue also pertains to the movement of goods & EU regulations, which is a somewhat different matter. The politico article details the options unnamed EU officials say the UK has, but for obvious reasons, I wouldn't put much faith in unnamed EU officials having no stake in the matter - both options they provide both keep the UK within the EU whilst invalidating its influence. So surprise surprise, unnamed EU officials say the UK has no option but to stay in the EU: News at 10.

For starters, membership of the single market or customs union is not an objective of the UK government - there is simply no way the UK is "leaving the EU" yet allowing the EU to dictate the UK's trade with planet Earth; the EU would be free to destroy the UK with no consequence, thus this control cannot be in any hands but the UK's. Theresa May and her loyal cabinet ministers have gone on about how they seek a transitionary period of membership to the common market, either in part or in full, while she contends with the ascendant and remnant Tory factions. The former demands nothing less than complete withdrawal from the common market, while the latter demands nothing less than full membership or access to the common market, thus the compromise leaves both wings entirely dissatisfied and is merely a stratagem used to buy May's career more time.

Regarding Ireland, I'm more bothered that the EU is willing to use Ireland as a bargaining chip, than the issue of Ireland's border itself. You don't bargain with sovereignty, nor play with breaking uneasy peace. If I were Theresa May, I'd point out something obvious to the unnamed EU officials, both those options entail the surrender of the UK to supposed allies and are unacceptable. If the EU wants to stop UK-Ireland free trade, they're welcome to set up border checks on their side, it'd be up to the EU to stop free trade between the ROI and NI to preserve their economic control of the ROI. If the attitude of the EU really is you must accept integration, vassalization or balkanisation, it's time the UK stopped negotiating and just left - they're clearly offering no reasonable choices if they're flat out ignoring the UK, offering to take the UK's sovereignty in exchange for a trojan horse. I have no faith in Theresa May, but Davis and the DUP will sooner collapse the Tory government than allow May to sell any part of the UK.

Fingers crossed it's just Russians sowing discord between London & Brussels though

[smjjames]

@Chairmanpoo: Or maybe it's because there are writers who are on both sides of Brexit, I'd hardly call Politico a russianbot site. It may be exaggerated a bit, but as mentioned at the bottom of this BBC article, they're definetly making an issue out of North Ireland.

Anyways, yeah, the whole removing of North Ireland is pretty extraordinary. I get how NI politics, particularily rejoining the rest of Ireland, might play into it, but still. Also, in hindsight, I guess that article I linked is more of an opinion piece without really stating that it is.

I guess the point is more that if Brussels doesn't change their position, a political crisis is all but inevitable. Plus the fact that they're running out of time (December is the latest that they can get something signed which will be able to go into effect by next March) and whatever comes out of this big meeting on Friday might be their last chance. Or maybe it'll be the last chance for Theresa May as it seems to imply.