Regarding the second point you contested, ("-Walk into negotiations expecting the other Europeans to bend over backwards to sell prosecco, don't have a backup plans when it turns out otherwise."), unsurprisingly I disagree with you on both count. There has been a ongoing refusal from the Brexiteer since the referendum campaign to acknowledge that the EU, not Britain, would have the leverage in the exit talks. As an exemple I distinctly remember you arguing that since the UK was running a trade deficit with the EU, it had the leverage, which is, well bollocks.
1. Do you understand how fucking stupid it would be for our Prime Minister to acknowledge
any leverage at all when the EU has made it clear their objective is to punish the UK? You might as well fault the Prime Minister for representing Britain instead of the EU. May's fucked up 20 times but that's not the 21st.
2. I made pages of sourced arguments and I won't have them be distilled into a tweet I never made. I was tired of it then and I'm too tired now.
This has been apparent also among the Brexiteer at the cabinet level, with BoJo's prosecco comment and Davis arguments that German carmakers would pressure Merkel into giving the UK what they want. That is a fundament misreading of the situation seen from the Continent, where Britain simply isn't that important, and those clumsy comment are seen as feeble ploy to divides countries, while they know that unity is key to strength in negotiations.
Boris Johnson is the absolute worst man for a diplomatic job and David Davis was making a sincere case to put co-prosperity over politics.
There is a fundamental misreading of the situation seen by the Continent. Not enough EU partners have supported co-prosperity such that it can overcome the EU; thus the EU wants to punish the UK. The EU treating us as an enemy has been the single most unifying factor in British politics.
"No deal would be the worst case scenario… No deal means no winners, everybody will lose.” -
JunckerBut clearly Juncker does not control his own negotiators because the deals have been
vindictive. This is after a poll revealed nearly three-quarters (
74%) support the Government's position that no deal is better than a bad deal on Brexit. Even amongst remaininers now only 46% of Remainers say that the Brexit process should just be called off if Britain reaches March 2019 without a deal, meaning a majority of remainers and the vast majority of leavers are well prepared to leave with no deal unless the EU is capable of calming down.
(By the way, isn't it hilarious that there seems to be more unity on Brexit among EU governments than within the British cabinets.)
Why? There's no irony in it if you understood that British politics has always been controlled by pro-EU ministers stacking cabinet with pro-EU ministers. It bears repeating that in 2015 of the major parties you could vote for a pro-EU Tory leader, pro-EU labour leader and a pro-EU libdem leader. Even now our PM was on the remain campaign. We've had one year to sort out decades long interfactional splits between socialists, thatcherites, pro-EU and eurosceptic, liberal and conservative, all within a parliamentary democracy.
As to whether the EU governments are united, it just seems to me like the EU is doing as it always has done: No doesn't mean no if you're not listening. From the Hungarians calling EU parliamentary hearings witch hunts and communist show trials to the election of eurosceptics in Austria or the Visegrad group fucking off or the French-German integration happening despite Italian objections. This is not the result of a UK master plan of spies and ploys, this is the EU not listening to its own member states.
Consider that the UK was unquestionably an EU member and when Cameron went to negotiate reforms which would've allayed Brexit fears, the EU gave him nothing. The EU seems to have learned nothing from this lesson and now is like a Han Emperor, convinced the realm is fine when it's in it's most existential crisis. You could find that hilarious but it's pretty much business as usual tbh, it's rare to see yuros agree on something and it's bloody well depressing. The EU could give Europeans reasons to support it, instead it would rather give reasons to fear it.
As for negotiations between neighbours and enemies, that's crap too. The EU is simply defending the interest of its members and their citizens, wether on the Irish border or about the right of EU citizens resident in Britain. That you see that as enmity is exactly the kind of "expecting the EU to bend over backward".
The UK’s House of Lords has been warned that Britain will be made an example of by the European Union, if it votes to quit the bloc in the upcoming referendum.
Furious EU nations will force a draconian Brexit deal on the UK in a bid to deter other countries from leaving, the House of Lords Select Committee, which scrutinises British EU policy, was told in Brussels today (13 January).
https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/house-of-lords-warned-eu-will-punish-uk-if-it-votes-for-brexit/
You can't lie to my face when the EU has made it clear for the last 2 years it is doing its best to punish the UK for leaving. To make an example of the UK to dissuade any other countries from daring to leave. There are not the actions of a neighbour protecting their interests, they are the actions of someone inflicting damage on a foreign entity for no personal gain: An enemy.
And I know you don't even believe in what you're saying. Cos on the one hand you believe the EU is almighty and the UK has no power, and on the other hand you believe the EU is being asked to bend over, when the UK is asking not for hegemony, but to not be given vindictive offers. Asking for our country to not be fucked over for spite is not asking the EU to bend over.
Now, what about the British side?
We're currently more focused no bolstering the NHS. Our biggest priority is telling the EU to sod off with their demand for 50 billion euros.
So frankly you can see why our country would rather go on our own and work with none of the EU if the attitude demanded for us is for the UK to bend over and beg for more punishment. Oh but of course, 5th largest economy in the world, we're irrelevant. That's why the EU can afford to do trade deals with New Zealand and not the UK, because New Zealand is too powerful to ignore