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[ChairmanPoo]

*shrug*
reallistically?
They will likely have support in Parliament against article155 from Podemos (leftist party, 69 seats), the Basque Nationalist party (5 seats), EH Bildu (another Basque nationalist party, 2 seats). This is plus their own 17 seats combining CDC and ERC. Soo... at most 93 votes. Out of a total of 350. So certainly not enough to turn this around with voting against the Unholy Trinity of PP, PSOE, and Cs (really Cs has like 32 seats, so basically they're acting as mamporreros in this union. Doesnt keep them from pretending they're important)


Or you meant international support?  Noone that will lift a finger.  I mean, Donald Tusk and some other people certainly said that there should be a negotiation, but I don't really expect them to lift a finger. You know how these things work.

[Loud Whispers]

*shrug*
reallistically?
They will likely have support in Parliament against article155 from Podemos (leftist party, 69 seats), the Basque Nationalist party (5 seats), EH Bildu (another Basque nationalist party, 2 seats). This is plus their own 17 seats combining CDC and ERC. Soo... at most 93 votes. Out of a total of 350. So certainly not enough to turn this around with voting against the Unholy Trinity of PP, PSOE, and Cs (really Cs has like 32 seats, so basically they're acting as mamporreros in this union. Doesnt keep them from pretending they're important)


Or you meant international support?  Noone that will lift a finger.  I mean, Donald Tusk and some other people certainly said that there should be a negotiation, but I don't really expect them to lift a finger. You know how these things work.

Both domestic and international really, though sucks that Catalonia doesn't have much support at the federal level - even for negotiations? That said, despite Catalonia's small size they are pretty wealthy, and for all the EU's talk of diplomatically isolating a nascent Catalonia their hunger for european clay would be unlikely to leave a gap in the Mediterranean sea - so for cynical purposes they would seek to expand into an independent Catalonia. Imo an independent Catalonia should stay outta EU but that's up to Catalonians really to decide. Of note is the divide between Macedonia and Greece, with Macedonia being blocked by Greece over names. So Spain could feasibly frustrate Catalonia's diplomatic efforts after a potential declaration of independence.

That said, if Catalonia put 2% of their GDP into defence they'd have $5.1B to arm themselves with, which would allow them to field a defence force somewhere in between Singapore and Qatar. With no naval base of their own and near all training facilities based in Spain outside of Catalonia, again Catalonia would be a bit stuffed there. But it wouldn't be impossible to turn all that around. Right now Catalonia probably shouldn't pursue independence simply because Spain has her quite literally surrounded, but surely a 15 year long plan would give Catalonia the strength needed to choose Madrid or Barcelona? At the very least, the strength needed to have a Madrid government hear their words. Overconfidence can kill, patience too, but the latter less likely to.

Also of note is I've been looking at the response from UK, France, Italy, USA & Russia, and it is looking absolutely not good for the most part. I reckon despite the governments' lack of any formal statements, much of the UK is sympathetic because of the way the Spanish government has treated Gibraltarians with the Guardia Civil, but the state itself is neutral. France opposes unilateral independence, but what measures they would take in such an event where the Spanish military marched upon Catalonia is anyone's guess. Doubt it would be the same as Belgium though... Italy is opposed in all cases, concerned as they are with Lombard or Venetian separatist movements, and Russia appears to be supporting both sides. Which is very Russian. USA also in favour of Madrid, though not terribly committed.

On the bright side, most of those nations also oppose Madrid using excessive force. Could Catalonia endure, and most importantly, renegotiate its position and regain autonomy if subjected to direct rule of law within a politically divided society?

[ChairmanPoo]

A punctualization is in order here: Most likely autonomy proper wont be abolished de jure. 


What they will do instead is jail the Govern, and then dust off the Ley de Partidos (which was, ironically enough, passed in 2002 with the vote of Catalonian nationalists) which allows to ban any party that "reiteratedly acts against the established democratic order" (deligtfully ambiguous no?). And will thus proceed to ban Convergencia and Esquerra Republicana.  Afterwards, having wiped out the real opposition they'll hold a new regional election and try to get a stooge elected President.

Oddly enough the media has not mentioned this possibility so far. Seems they forgot that law exists.

Of course you could argue that doing that is trying to douse a fire with gasoline. You have a point, but this didnt stop them in the past.  Plus the alternative is to repeat the elections and NOT illegalize Catalonian nationalists. If they got 72 out of 135 seats last time, it's anyone's guess how many they'd get now

[smjjames]

Well, obviously Russia would be in favor because in Russia's view, it makes the West run around in circles looking like doofuses.

Trump has sorta pledged favor to Madrid (he said it when Rajoy visited), but he hasn't said much publicly about the situation, nor has Tillerson to my knowledge. I don't know what Trumps reaction would be to Spain sending in the tanks and military (besides the Guardia Civil, the military police, or is that the Spanish version of the national guard? actually, I think guardia civil translates into national guard) either, probably condemn it.

[ChairmanPoo]

The Guardia Civil is a police force on paper but it's organized on military lines and has access to heavy military equipment. I dont think they are analogous to the National Guard. They're a militarized police force.

They tend to be fairly unpleasant, but to be honest most police forces in Spain tend to be fairly unpleasant (the Mossos also have a reputation of being fairly unpleasant). Then again, the unpleasantness of the Civil Guard tends to spike in certain circumstances. Not so long ago being stopped at a control while having certain surnames from certain regions was worrying because you might get trouble just because. Then again, back then they were a frequent target of terrorist attacks. That sort of thing can sour your mood, I'm guessing.

[Sheb]

Both domestic and international really, though sucks that Catalonia doesn't have much support at the federal level - even for negotiations? That said, despite Catalonia's small size they are pretty wealthy, and for all the EU's talk of diplomatically isolating a nascent Catalonia their hunger for european clay would be unlikely to leave a gap in the Mediterranean sea - so for cynical purposes they would seek to expand into an independent Catalonia. Imo an independent Catalonia should stay outta EU but that's up to Catalonians really to decide. Of note is the divide between Macedonia and Greece, with Macedonia being blocked by Greece over names. So Spain could feasibly frustrate Catalonia's diplomatic efforts after a potential declaration of independence.

That said, if Catalonia put 2% of their GDP into defence they'd have $5.1B to arm themselves with, which would allow them to field a defence force somewhere in between Singapore and Qatar. With no naval base of their own and near all training facilities based in Spain outside of Catalonia, again Catalonia would be a bit stuffed there. But it wouldn't be impossible to turn all that around. Right now Catalonia probably shouldn't pursue independence simply because Spain has her quite literally surrounded, but surely a 15 year long plan would give Catalonia the strength needed to choose Madrid or Barcelona? At the very least, the strength needed to have a Madrid government hear their words. Overconfidence can kill, patience too, but the latter less likely to.

Expension requires unanimous support in the Council, so Catalonia could be frozen out of the EU permanently as long as Spain wants to (if only to deter the Basques).

[scriver]

Which is ridiculous - not that it requires unanimous support, that is good, but that a people that is already in the EU suddenly would find themselves outside the EU simply because they leave the parent state. Despite, you know, having already paid to be in the EU so far.

[Sheb]

Which is ridiculous - not that it requires unanimous support, that is good, but that a people that is already in the EU suddenly would find themselves outside the EU simply because they leave the parent state. Despite, you know, having already paid to be in the EU so far.

Can't say I disagree with you there.

[ChairmanPoo]

See, the thing is that what the Catalans originally wanted (in 2006) was the same status as the Basque Country as far as devolved goverment is concerned. The reason they went through with this is that not only was the PP stonewalling them but they actually increased pressure over Catalonian institutions.

It's funny because back when I was a kid the state media was (mis)representing us as Afghanistan and the Catalonians as the "good", smart nationalists, and now it's the other way around (now the Basques are the "smart" ones and Catalonians are "dangerous rabble rousers").

Anyway, the thing is that the autonomy agreement for the Basque Country and additional disposition 1 of the Constitution recognize the right of self goverment of "foral provinces" (aka Biscay, Alava, Gipuzkoa and Navarre), and the eventual devolvement of pretty much all competences but borders and defense (&contributing to the common solidarity box for healthcare and such). The Basque Country is pretty far ahead with these devolvements, with Navarre lagging a bit behind, but all in all people are not quite as itchy about independence (or at least about independence "right now"). So I don't think at the moment they're as worried about us as they are about Catalonia.

[ChairmanPoo]

So predictably enough no further calls from the EU for negotiation now that the situation is "fixed".  I kind of suspect the goverment has overstated how fixed things are.

We'll see. The Govern has been given until Friday to back down. If they do... the EU will have been right, although the question is far from solved. If not they just let go the best chance to defuse a very volatile situation

[martinuzz]

Meanwhile in Sweden, farmers are concerned about wild boars becoming a true plague in the north of the country.
Global warming has allowed the boars to spread their habitat further north over the past decades.
Hunters have mostly stopped hunting the boars, because the boars are too radioactive. Contrary to other local animals, the boars dig deep into the earth to find food, like underground mushrooms. Those still contain high concentrations of radioactive Cesium-137.
Even though the radiation is only minor, and you would have to eat a whole lot of boar to be affected, their radioactiveness still exceeds national food safety standards by nearly a factor 2. Hunters will not hunt them, for they can't sell the meat, and have to pay for the testing of the meat themselves.

The boar population in the north has risen from zero to 250 thousand in half a century, and they are responsible for a lot of damage to agriculture.

I think the Swedish government should consider subsidizing the hunters, at the very least for the costs of testing the meat.

[scriver]

Lol, that would mean giving a fuck about the non-urban regions. And that won't happen.

[smjjames]

What's the radiation from? Contamination from Chernobyl? I know the West discovered something was up when in either Sweden or Norway, workers at nuclear plants were triggering radiation alarms on entering. So, obviously a plume of it reached Sweden at least.... and I just answered my own question.

[scriver]

Yeah, probably. Northern Sweden got hit hard by the windfall.

[martinuzz]

Yeah, the contamination is still from the Chernobyl incident, over 30 years ago. The wind spread a big cloud of radioactive dust over the north of Sweden.