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[Strife26]

When legal court is orders don't make it right, then the rule of law itself is broken down, Chairman. Ain't nothing for that except violence.

[da_nang]

Catalans lost the legal battle.

A moral battle is unwinnable by either side by definition.

All that's left is either accept the legal outcome or go to war.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

You can keep on pushing this whole law and process line until you're blue in the face da_nang, but it doesn't change the way things really work. Law is where legislation, enforcement, and popular support meet. If any one of those is out of line it all falls to pieces, as we saw today.

That is the real reason why the Spanish government is monumentally idiotic, that everybody saw this but they failed to adapt to it.

[Reelya]

Catalan has a clear path they can take here. Create a huge stand-off then when things can't get any worse, get the thing heard at The Hague or some other avenue of mediation. Then Catalan would basically get what they want. It would be even easier if they can get at least one other nation to recognize them as a sovereign state. Surely, there's got to be at least one nation who hates Spain and would do that.

MetalSlimeHunt is right, too. Things don't work "by the book". Who can secede is largely dictated by circumstance, forcing the issue, and having strong allies or a weak enemy. "They didn't follow 'the rules' for seceding" is silly. Virtually nobody in history who has successfully seceded followed "the rules" because "the rules" are designed to stop you doing that.

[ChairmanPoo]

As an update: the referendum had 300.000 voters, with 90% in favor of secession. This  sets participation around 4%. Nonetheless the Govern is regarding the result as valid and representative.


Edit: actual updated results are higher

Resultados provisionales, según los datos del Govern:
Votos: 2.262.424
Sí: 2.020.144
No: 176.566
En blanco: 45.585
Nulos: 20.129

This would set participation around 30%, if reliable. Not bad all things considered. Still not enough to claim representativeness of results, particularily considering the events of the last hours.

TBH both sides have been pretty asinine in this whole fiasco. But, see, what sets the moral tone is that only one side actually sent the military police to charge against unarmed peaceful civilians.

[da_nang]

Fine, then. 

Throw out the law if you want, but don't be surprised if you get thrown out with it.

Virtually nobody in history who has successfully seceded followed "the rules"

*cough* I live in one.

EDIT: Either way, it's been a long day and will be long night.

Don't get yourselves killed, folks.

[TheDarkStar]

With the national police actively blocking voting, Catalonia can probably get away with less than 50% of people voting for secession, assuming that the number of people blocked from voting/whose ballots were destroyed is large enough. Then the Catalonian government can say that the total of actual voters + the predicted number in areas where people were prevented from voting is over 50%, or that the number of yes votes would have been over 50%, and so on. And in this case they'd probably be right.

[hector13]

What is it about the law that is so paramount in this instance, da nang?

Laws aren't absolute infallible things, and they are even less so when it comes to things like borders and sovereignty.

[Reelya]

Fine, then. 

Throw out the law if you want, but don't be surprised if you get thrown out with it.

Virtually nobody in history who has successfully seceded followed "the rules"

*cough* I live in one.

EDIT: Either way, it's been a long day and will be long night.

Don't get yourselves killed, folks.

Finland came about because Russia had just had a coup, and neither Lenin nor the Tsarists could expend the manpower needed to invade you at the same time as fighting each other. Lenin couldn't afford to make any more enemies than he already had, so he was forced to concede when you declared independence. If you'd tried that even a couple of years later, they would have stomped you into the ground with the Red Army.

Thats why you got independence: Opportunism and taking advantage of a civil-war / unstable-political-situation / power-vacuum to declare yourself independent. It had absolutely zero to do with "following established legal precedents". Some guy who'd just lead a violent illegal coup in Russia said it was ok for Finland to be independent. Some "legal" precedent that is.

Remember what I wrote:

MetalSlimeHunt is right, too. Things don't work "by the book". Who can secede is largely dictated by circumstance, forcing the issue, and having strong allies or a weak enemy. "They didn't follow 'the rules' for seceding" is silly. Virtually nobody in history who has successfully seceded followed "the rules" because "the rules" are designed to stop you doing that.

"circumstance" and "weak enemy" apply to Finland in 1917. The authority that could stop you seceding had completely collapsed, but that collapse was a temporary thing, so "forcing the issue" could apply to, because the Finnish Whites quickly decided to exploit the decree by Lenin because they didn't want to be part of the USSR. The "strong allies" part is also relevant, because The Finnish Whites called in support from Imperial Germany to back up their side in the Finnish Civil War that followed, while the Finnish Reds were defeated and their Soviet allies had to pull their troops out.

[redwallzyl]

If their expecting the international community to help them their idiots. they wont for the same reasons Spain cant.

[Dorsidwarf]

Oh boy. So what we've got here is a large group with very valid grievances being stubborn and shortsighted out of exasperation on one hand, and a brutal crackdown by the Spanish authorities on the other?

That's not a good mix. Did Castile go ahead on that "fire all Catalonian police and replace them with out of state officers" or was that hyperbole?

[smjjames]

You mean Madrid, though Castile would be the appropriate historical name I guess.

I don't think they actually fired all the Catalonian police and replace with out of state officers, what they did was more the equivalent of the Feds plus national guard deciding to do police stuff instead of the local police despite the local polices protests, or something.

[ChairmanPoo]

It was neither.  Catalonian policd was placed under central state control

[Culise]

With the national police actively blocking voting, Catalonia can probably get away with less than 50% of people voting for secession, assuming that the number of people blocked from voting/whose ballots were destroyed is large enough. Then the Catalonian government can say that the total of actual voters + the predicted number in areas where people were prevented from voting is over 50%, or that the number of yes votes would have been over 50%, and so on. And in this case they'd probably be right.

To be fair, it appeared that they were going to do that regardless of whether the central government intervened.  The Catalan government didn't set any minimum threshold for turnout, but did declare their intention to move for secession upon a successful "Si" within an exceptionally short time frame.  Given that, as far as I can recall, all parties in opposition to the referendum actively declared their intention to boycott the referendum as illegal, it's not surprising that "No" voters would be tremendously underrepresented with or without the police actively turning out to break heads. 

You mean Madrid, though Castile would be the appropriate historical name I guess.

Madrid is probably better, Catalan nationalist usage aside.  Accidentally tell an Andalusian, Galego, or Valencian that they're Castilian and you'll get a good earful.  Believe me, I have.

EDIT: Minor tweak for clarification.

[ChairmanPoo]

Part of the problem is that the PP has largely been behaving as if only an unified Spanish identity (mostly Castilian)  was legitimate.  Whereas Spain has always had very strong regional identities, which would-be rulers had to respect.
 Making things weirder, they weren't always so ridiculously hostile towards Catalonians.  Up until 2000 Puigdemont's party was a frequent coalition ally of the PP.  But especially during the last 7 years the PP has increasingly brought an axe to grind against them, for some reason.