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[Frumple]

The best thing for EU's own is to make sure that the trade with the UK proceeds as unhindered as possible. This is the best thing for the EU too. The only entity that would be bad for would be the EU imperialists who wants to dominate and shit all over the citizens of EU countries.

As possible, sure, but that's not going to mean "the same". Particularly with a country that's shown that it, at the least, has major political parties hostile to the union. Giving the UK the same deal as EU member states have without any of the costs or responsibilities would be shitting all over the agreements with the other alliance members. Would mean the union is worth basically nothing, which would kinda' defeat any point of it and all but guarantee there's not going to be an EU's own in short order.

I'm sure the EU backstabbing its faithful members for a cut of that (declining) UK dosh would be great for euroskeptic folks (if no one else and them only from an ideological perspective, because the EU coming apart isn't going to be pretty for Europe), but the union's going to have to treat non-union (particularly, again, in regards to a political entity that's acted like chunks of the UK has) differently if there's going to be much reason for it to exist. However unhindered trade continues, the UK's going to be paying more for it.

[martinuzz]

British former ambassador of Libya has warned the EU that their efforts to stem the migrant tide in Libya, and training the coast guard in situ, is too little, and too late.
According to him, at this moment there are a million, if not more Africans already in the pipeline from West African and the Horn of Africa, en route to Italy.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/02/1m-african-migrants-may-be-en-route-to-europe-says-former-uk-envoy

[smjjames]

British former ambassador of Libya has warned the EU that their efforts to stem the migrant tide in Libya, and training the coast guard in situ, is too little, and too late.
According to him, at this moment there are a million, if not more Africans already in the pipeline from West African and the Horn of Africa, en route to Italy.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/02/1m-african-migrants-may-be-en-route-to-europe-says-former-uk-envoy

Is the guy talking about the usual migrant influx that Europe gets on a normal (well, before the Syrian refugee crisis exploded into Europe) basis or is he warning (or fearmongering, without background statistics I'm not sure which one) of a new surge of migrants that is larger than the usual?

Seems like the last thing that Europe would want right now is a new migrant surge on top of the current refugee influx.

[Sheb]

Hard to say. With the current famine in Somalia I could see a bigger-than-usual surge.

[scriver]

British former ambassador of Libya has warned the EU that their efforts to stem the migrant tide in Libya, and training the coast guard in situ, is too little, and too late.
According to him, at this moment there are a million, if not more Africans already in the pipeline from West African and the Horn of Africa, en route to Italy.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/02/1m-african-migrants-may-be-en-route-to-europe-says-former-uk-envoy

Is the guy talking about the usual migrant influx that Europe gets on a normal (well, before the Syrian refugee crisis exploded into Europe) basis or is he warning (or fearmongering, without background statistics I'm not sure which one) of a new surge of migrants that is larger than the usual?

Seems like the last thing that Europe would want right now is a new migrant surge on top of the current refugee influx.

Smjj, I feel like we've been over this before. There was no "Syrian refugee crisis". Most of the migrants making up the crisis were not refugees, and even less were Syrian. If only Syrian refugees had immigrated there would have been no "Syrian refugee crisis". They simply did not make up enough of the numbers for that.

[martinuzz]

He is not talking about Syrians. He is talking about West Africans and East Africans (the Horn of Africa). It's the type of refugee that will be stuck for a year or ten in refugee centers before being told they have no chance to get a permit, and returned to Africa.

[Sheb]

Smjj, I feel like we've been over this before. There was no "Syrian refugee crisis". Most of the migrants making up the crisis were not refugees, and even less were Syrian. If only Syrian refugees had immigrated there would have been no "Syrian refugee crisis". They simply did not make up enough of the numbers for that.

Well, there was a lot of Syrian still, they were the larger group by far even if they weren't a majority (About ~25% of the total). You can have a breakdown here. Given that the crisis was more about the politics of the thing and the lack of coordinated response than absolute number, I think the Syrians (or Syrians+ Iraqis) on their own would likely have been enough. :

[scriver]

No, the crisis was definitely about the number of immigrants. 70% less people would be been 70% less people to take care of.

[Sheb]

No, the crisis was definitely about the number of immigrants. 70% less people would be been 70% less people to take care of.

Well, first of all, 70% exclude all non-Syrians, when there is a legitimate case that Iraqis for exemple are just as much refugees as Syrians. Then, I think you're underestimating the political aspect. Look at Greece, were a mere 50-70.000 people are still stuck and managing to cause a huge political mess.

[scriver]

No, 75% excludes all non-Syrians. The 70% percent is based on the most generous estimation of non-eligible asylum seekers in Sweden (70-80%) since I wasn't up to making a percentage conversion of that table.

[Sheb]

What do you base it on? Is that the percentage of asylum seeker not granted asylum? The number of people granted asylum that you think don't deserve it? The amount of people granted subsidiary protection?

[scriver]

The estimated numbers politicians in our news/debate shows has used.

We don't know what numbers are actually granted asylum yet because the immigration agency is still resolving the 2015 cases.

The 25% number was based on your own words.

[Frumple]

... man, if you trust the numbers on immigration/refugees used by politicians on your news and debate shows, your lot must have a hella' better record on that front than they do stateside. Particularly if they're being bandied about by anyone with a degree of animus towards the demographic in question.

Over here stuff doesn't exactly tend to take long before you get into "yeah, I should probably be checking the actual statistics instead of trusting what this asshole is saying about them" territory. Indulged on both sides of the discussion and bystanders as well, but the anti-immigrant folks in particular are somewhat notorious for it.

It's nice if they do have that record, though. TV appearing politicians not dragging data into a dark alleyway and vigorously fornicating it would be an interesting experience.

[Shub-Nullgurath]

... man, if you trust the numbers on immigration/refugees used by politicians on your news and debate shows, your lot must have a hella' better record on that front than they do stateside. Particularly if they're being bandied about by anyone with a degree of animus towards the demographic in question.

Over here stuff doesn't exactly tend to take long before you get into "yeah, I should probably be checking the actual statistics instead of trusting what this asshole is saying about them" territory. Indulged on both sides of the discussion and bystanders as well, but the anti-immigrant folks in particular are somewhat notorious for it.

It's nice if they do have that record, though. TV appearing politicians not dragging data into a dark alleyway and vigorously fornicating it would be an interesting experience.

The problem in the EU is that no one has real numbers because there's so many unregistered that it's impossible to tell anymore.

[Frumple]

You can at least check methodology on how they're estimating, in cases like that. Impossible to tell is words politicians use when they can't be arsed to understand what the statisticians et al are saying, much of the time