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[smjjames]

Looks like Spain's Rajoy is getting ousted in a vote of no confidence, to be replaced with Pedro Sanchez of the Spanish Socialist Party. What that means for the whole Catalan issue, I don't know exactly, but both the Basque nationalist party and two of the pro-independence Catalan parties support Sanchez.

[ChairmanPoo]

There were bilateral winks between the nationalists and the socialist party. EG: the Catalonians have withdrawn some polemic figures from their goverment, and the socialist candidate has openly said that although he will "defend the territorial integrity of Spain", he recognizes the existence within Spain of "other nationalities"

If I had to guess: No independence referendum, but the 155 will get lifted and there might be a reform/improvement of Catalonian autonomy....

Plus minus more power devolved to the Basque goverment. Plus the national budget with more funding for the Basque Country that the Basque Nationalist party milked out of Rajoy's goverment last week stays in place....  I think all in all we are doing allright. A Basque political comentator quipped that he's beginning to think that someone in the Basque Nationalist Party travelled to the future and came back with an almanac, as the whole sequence of events has been almost too convenient. 

[Reelya]

Also in news, a populist / right-wing coalition is taking power in Italy it seems.

Policies seem to be mass deportations of immigrants, a guaranteed basic income and tax cuts for everyone, through flattening the tax system to two tiers (the top one of which is 20%, down from over 40% right now), along with abandoning increases in sales tax and excise duties. They also want to renegotiate Italy's debts and both parties are anti-Euro / pro-"Italexit", though they've soften the anti-Euro talk as of recently.

All up, they've promised a bucketload of spending increases along with the tax cuts, all of which for the EU nation with one of the biggest existing debt to GDP ratios already. However, the GBI money for the poor should have an out-sized effect on growing GDP since poor people spend all the money you give them. So it's better than taxbreaks for billionaires at least (which would just end up in "Swiss bank accounts" and the like).

So Italy could soon either have an exploding economy in a good way, or an exploding economy in a bad way, it's hard to say right now. Things are going to explode, at least.

[ChairmanPoo]

AFAIK Both parties backed down from Italexit and leaving the EU doesn't have much track in Italy (less after the Brexit mess). This is not exceptional. I think overall in S. Europe we have tjis feeling of frustration with the EU, but it's not clear Xexit movements are the solution. Much less after the British hara kiri.


Overall the situation in Italy doesnt look good, as increasing spending (basic income) and decreasing tax income (tax cuts for everyone) seems contradictory. I really hope they don't go into a loan clusterfuck like the greeks did, as given the size of Italy's omy it would be even messier

[martinuzz]

British senior civil ervants researching Brexit scenarios have leaked to the Sunday Times.
According to the leaked info, if the Brexit turns out to be a hard, no-deal Brexit, the UK will face food, medicine and petrol shortages within a few weeks, because immeasurable traffic jams will be created, as the borders close and all vehicles need to pass customs checks. Cities in Cornwell and Scotland could even see empty stores in as little as few days.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/revealed-plans-for-doomsday-no-deal-brexit-02mld2jg2
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/sunday-times-bij-een-akkoordloze-brexit-krijgen-de-britten-al-snel-te-maken-met-lege-schappen-en-een-tekort-aan-brandstof-~bcebf98a/

[Reelya]

In that case, shortages will lead to a black market and you'll get some people snapping up whatever they can then scalping it to the rest of you. e.g. stock up heavily on things like toilet paper before that happens.

Of course, the mere thought of shortages causes everyone to stock up, thus exacerbating the problem, so everyone should both panic and stock up, and also not panic and not stock up. It's one of those prisoner's dilemma situations. The personal decision to stock up before the shortages is always the correct one in any scenario, however everybody stocking up at once causes the whole thing to collapse, so collectively, the sum of all the personal decisions which are perfectly rational by themselves in fact causes the entire thing to collapse, and ironically, each and every person ends up worse off compared to the situation where nobody acted in their own personal best interest. Individual rationality = group insanity.

[smjjames]

British senior civil ervants researching Brexit scenarios have leaked to the Sunday Times.
According to the leaked info, if the Brexit turns out to be a hard, no-deal Brexit, the UK will face food, medicine and petrol shortages within a few weeks, because immeasurable traffic jams will be created, as the borders close and all vehicles need to pass customs checks. Cities in Cornwell and Scotland could even see empty stores in as little as few days.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/revealed-plans-for-doomsday-no-deal-brexit-02mld2jg2
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/sunday-times-bij-een-akkoordloze-brexit-krijgen-de-britten-al-snel-te-maken-met-lege-schappen-en-een-tekort-aan-brandstof-~bcebf98a/

That's not actually new. Politico Europe already has an article analysis saying that it will be extremely bad. Not quite apocalyptic, but incredibly and unprecedentially disruptive due to the chaos that will result in customs and stuff, hell, even AIR travel will be disrupted as planes might not even be able to take off or something.

[Sheb]

In that case, shortages will lead to a black market and you'll get some people snapping up whatever they can then scalping it to the rest of you. e.g. stock up heavily on things like toilet paper before that happens.

Of course, the mere thought of shortages causes everyone to stock up, thus exacerbating the problem, so everyone should both panic and stock up, and also not panic and not stock up. It's one of those prisoner's dilemma situations. The personal decision to stock up before the shortages is always the correct one in any scenario, however everybody stocking up at once causes the whole thing to collapse, so collectively, the sum of all the personal decisions which are perfectly rational by themselves in fact causes the entire thing to collapse, and ironically, each and every person ends up worse off compared to the situation where nobody acted in their own personal best interest. Individual rationality = group insanity.

Well, TP doesn't exactly spoil, so you should stock up now, so you're ready for Brexit day while letting shops refill themselves. :p

P.S.: Yeah, the right of planes to fly to other country is a EU thing, so the UK needs to re-negotiate plane access (as well as 50 bajillion things) before the exit.

[Doomblade187]

I mean, is it ever bad to have a good supply of TP?

[Reelya]

Yeah, I mainly mentioned it because of stuff like this being fairly common:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/world/asia/taiwan-toilet-paper-shortage.html

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Across Taiwan’s major cities, consumers are in a near panic over a shortage of one of modern life’s basic necessities: toilet paper.

From Taipei in the north to Tainan in the south, retailers are having difficulty keeping it on their shelves, as reports of imminent price increases have sent consumers rushing to stores to stock up on the household staple, which in Taiwan is sold folded in packs rather than as rolls.

e.g. capitalist Taiwan has panic-buying of toilet paper causing shortages after price hikes are announced. Remember that ironically the same thing happened a couple of years earlier in Venezuela due to "socialism". Panic-buying of toilet paper should be taken in context - a common phenomena in consumer cultures of all types whether left leaning or right leaning.

American had a similar thing happen, once:
https://priceonomics.com/the-great-toilet-paper-scare-of-1973/

The ground had been set for a consumer panic; all it needed was a spark to ignite it. When Johnny Carson cracked a joke about toilet paper on his television talk show, things got serious. “You know, we’ve got all sorts of shortages these days,” he told 20 million viewers. “But have you heard the latest? I’m not kidding. I saw it in the papers. There’s a shortage of toilet paper!”

Absolute madness ensued. Millions of Americans swarmed grocery outlets and hoarded all the toilet paper they could get their hands on.
...
For four long months, toilet paper was a rare commodity. It was bartered and traded, and a black market even emerged before the whole ordeal subsided in February of 1974. Slowly but surely, the American public realized that there had never been a shortage to begin with: rather, it had been artificially created by a pop culture frenzy.

Toilet-paper being a non-perishable consumable makes it especially prone to these sorts of panic, apparently. Which is all the reason you need to stock up, stock up heavily, and stock up now. Everyone. To avoid the panic.

But it won't happen in the UK because you have substitutes like the Daily Mail.

[Kagus]

This could all have been avoided if they just used squatter toilets and cleaned with water!

Oh, wait, there're water shortages too. Welp.

[ChairmanPoo]

Or bidets.

I find the lack of bidets and proper window blinds disturbing. If I get a permanent post and I stay long term you can be sure as hell I'll have a custom house built, with all those things.

It will also have proper central heating, not electric showers

[TD1]

No, though it would be nice if it would allow us to sort the disruptive stormy weather from the more gentle and sustaining rains. Alas, it is not to be. At least not with water. 

[martinuzz]

The EU Court has ruled that EU member states are not allowed to refuse recognizing a gay marriage, and all the rights for married couples that that comes with, even if they themselves have not legalized gay marriage.
A Romanian man had filed charges against his home country, after his American husband, with whom he got married in Belgium, was disallowed a visum and work permit, because Romania did not recognize the marriage.
The EU court now ruled that even though they cannot force a country to permit gay marriage nationally, they can force a country to accept a gay marriage that took place in another country for all legal purposes.
In the EU, Letland, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia have not legalized gay marriage, and are outspoken against it.

[smjjames]

Letland? That's not an english name of a country.