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[RAM]

Odds of success are 50%, unless a counterespionage is used.  Then your spy has a 1 in 6 chance of success, 2 in 6 of dying and depriving you of a spy on the next turn, 2 in 6 chance of discovery but manage to escape, and 1 in 6 of failure without discovery.  If two people go after the same nation, then there is a independent 1 in 6 chance of being seen by the other nation's spy.
If you target the revision, you would not need to steal the design to produce it.

HM, with 50% chance of success we will have rather similar set of designs rather soon

As for counter-espionage...
chance of getting a rather good result is 33%, chance of badly failing is 16.6%, chance for cancelling each others action is 50% and that if there are steal attempt

I read that as the odds for the attacking spy. So there is a 1/6 chance of no result, 5/6 chance of saving our sexcrets, 2/6 of causing someone to lose a turn, 4/6 of finding out who 'ad a go. There is no 'bad' result, but we do miss out on our own 50/50.

So, for simplicity's sake, lets assume that gaining a technilogy is worth 2 and keeping one secret is worth 1. Stealing is worth 50% of 2, or one...
Assuming that everyone tries to steal every turn, that is two theft attempts, assuming that they are spread out evenly between player factions, that is one per turn.
So that is a .7* value of finding out someone was in ar base, stealin' ar doods. I will assume that this has no value*.
.5 becomes .2*, so we cost them .3* regardless.
.3* chance of costing a .5 chance next time, so .2* gained. I will assume that knowing they will have no espionage next turn has no value*.
I assume that there is no value to being a consistently more difficult espionage target*.
So that is, basically, a value of .5 to counter-espionage and a 1 to piracy.
*nite me.

[Sheb]

Yeah, getting rid of espionage might be a good idea.

[RAM]

tO BE HONEST, i THINK THA- I think that counter espionage is actually kind of awesome. The trick is to use it most of the time, so that nobody wants to burn their use on you when there is an easier target. But you occasionally do use it and basically get the counter for free because nobody is targeting you. As a pure function it is weak, but if you employ the psychology well...

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Problem is - people can and do read thread of other nations. They may "accidentally" do an offensive action just when we go to attack (not that staying defensive works, imagine two other sides stealing designs from each other and getting a heap of designs)

If we can't do anything with enemy spying than it is a minor concern, but if we have rock-scissor-paper game then it doesn't look nice.

[Sheb]

I support a strike on Port Silver.

Also, I'm not sure about abolishing the spying game. If we think of the last game, it created tension, but also some nice drama (stealing the SMG?).

[Baffler]

Maybe we could decide in PM's with each other all CC'd, then send Zanz our decision (leaving him off discussion to not spam his inbox.)

We have two actions in this phase though. In addition to attacking Port Silver, I think we should attack Fort Combe. It increases our frontage and will get us resources, and it's not in player hands so it probably won't be hard to take control of it.

[Playergamer]

I think attacking the neutrals will backfire horribly if we can't knock them out quickly. Maybe we should just fortify the other end of the island, so as to hold off a possible enemy offensive?

[Wolfhunter107]

I definitively support an attack on Port Silver. Still don't know whether to fortify the other side or to attack Fort Combe. To be honest I'm leaning towards attacking Fort Combe because we'll be outflanked badly if they get it first.

[RAM]

The neutrals, to my mind, should have comparable technology, they will probably be easier to take now, but become much easier once we have some new technology distributed. We could miss our chance, of course, but will the whole state fall in a single action with current technologies? It'd be nice to "rescue" the state after someone else invades it...

On the other hand, it would also be nice if we were not the ones who started the inevitable decades-long war.

Having said that, I vote for attacking Newtown. hopefully we can get to the river and fortify it and largely block land access to Alton. If we do crazy-well, then we can secure the east and sandwich the Monarchists between us and the Loyalists.

[Zanzetkuken The Great]

Focus is set to assaulting Port Silver and Ft. Combe by highest vote at the deadline.

Phase is going to be set to future planning while the turn is being written up.

[RAM]

Future planning... I guess it'd be nice to have a defensive fleet, if we can sink boats then we can blockade ports and cut off support for landings. A strong fleet would also help with diplomacy concerning the Loyalists. If they want to attack us then it would help to have taken a mainland foothold via Monarchist territories, which would be murder to try to negotiate. And if you have naval superiority, even locally, then it gives you a head-start on well-supported naval landings. Even if we don't want to attack the Loyalists, a surprise landing could be a massive blow to an enemy that has been focused on the established land fronts.

Also, I should like to invest in armour. Maybe portable shields that work like a wheel-barrow with multiple long handles to deal with the weight and have a large metal shield with a sturdy wooden backing? They would be very vulnerable to high calibre ordnance, but if they were small, well, it would be difficult to field large amounts of heavy ordnance and it tends to be a bit inaccurate... I dunno, probably a doomed venture, but the idea of being able to march behind a wall that is largely immune to small arms fire seems extremely inviting. Traps would also be a problem, ditches and fire traps and such, also flanking, but still, one can dream...

How do we feel about Ethics? Incendiary weapons are fantastic for coercing the use of expensive medical facilities, and chemical weapons, while prone to friendly fire and likely difficult to research, it should be possible to build a grenade that is dangerous for minutes instead of seconds. Even if we restrict them to small weapons to limit the risks, they should still be effective at suppressing a battle-line. If your nice musket squares need to back off or split up because one of those cursed fizzers dropped in front of them, well, it is a decided hassle...

[Sheb]

We have to pay attention to the tech level. I think trains, and steam engines are going to be the more important thing. We need ressources to win the game, and those are the Next Big Things.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Next turn we need to improve logistics or give cavalry a proper weapon.

Air pistols look like interesting development to get more experience in pneumatic technology....

How about some compressed air powered transport? Is it viable?


Some simple logistic ideas

1) Revising fishing boats to become cheaper to act as our transport
2) Breed new kinds of horse breeds (revision or design)
3) Get donkeys and mules
4) Improve road technology (any ideas?)

[Sheb]

We could revive to Victoria to a carbine.

[RAM]

I suppose, but a Loyalist army showing up at our back door without an announcement would result in a bad time, and that is pretty much certain to happen, unless they are investing in hot-air balloons... But even then, ship-mounted ack-ack is probably about as good as it gets. But I can dig steam engines, there should be lots of lessons learned in train engines that can be applied to boats.