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[Deus Asmoth]

A flash of light fills the meeting room briefly as you talk. It seems that the Clone Lord reprogrammed Olympus' defences to shoot down any approaching ships, even the automated refueling drones. No one's entirely sure how much reserve fuel is kept aboard, but there aren't any alarms going off just yet, so it seems best to keep talking for a while longer.


Votecount:
SaberToothTiger (1): flabort
FallacyofUrist (2): hector13, SaberToothTiger
flabort (1): FallacyofUrist

Day has been extended. It ends Monday 4th of January at 1800 GMT.

[hector13]

Never mind, actually, HP takes too friggin' long.

OSG Replaced Tntey, far more active. Even with Star Wars. Does some pretty thourough analysis on Saber and FillipK. Day 3, Claims they can find player's original alignment, but not clones. Hector is not clone lord. Accuses Hector of waiting for Sabers claim so that Saber won't be able to counterclaim/so that Hector can fake-claim safely. Null read

This is the one that most bothers me. Given that you're jumping to fairly significant conclusions regarding your later reads, how does OSG "clearing" me not read as scummy when you do the same regarding my read on SabahToof? It's pretty much the exact same thing.

How is you NOT being the clone lord due to a POWER ROLE the same thing as Saber being town due to a GUT FEELING?
Seriously, it's not the same thing. He claims that you can't be the Clone Lord (he doesn't say you can't be cult), due to his power. If you were the cult lord, then OSG AND FoU would have to be converts. Which would mean I had to be cult, which would mean the only town player left would be Saber.

It's the same thing because OSG could be lying. Do you know for sure he's telling the truth? No. Are you concluding he's telling the truth based on the evidence presented to you - or, for example, concluding that someone is n00b town based on the evidence presented? Yes. Therefore, they are the exact same thing.

I have no idea what you're trying to say in the highlighted bit. OSG is the only one "clearing" me from being CL, based on a PR. FoU is concluding that based on the evidence we have, though I think he's trying to look harmless so I stop voting him. If I were the CL, OSG would probably be a convert, but FoU not necessarily so.

CL just needs to avoid being lynched today (and have a successful conversion overnight) to win, assuming only a town and cult. Thus, even if we hit the cultist, we still lose, so continuing the hypothetical of me being CL, a bit of distancing by demanding a claim wouldn't harm my chances of winning.

SaberToothTiger target for a lot of suspicion and votes, but avoided being lynched by fillipK being scummier. This is the only post where I see him doing any scum hunting, and only against FillipK. At day end, their closing comment was "nothing to say". Day 3 their activity plummets. Once they finally post they defend Hector and claim VT. Behavior leads me to believe that there's no chance they were ever converted, so likely CL

I assume you meant this post for the claim and defense. Not really sure how it was defending me, given it was a sentence saying they don't agree with FoU, but okay. As I've said, I think it's n00b town behaviour rather than scumminess, but I can't fault your conclusion, at least in isolation...

Yes, that's where he defends you. Where they say they don't like someone's attack on you, a classic chainsaw defense (look up on a beginner's mafia what that means).

I'm aware of what a chainsaw defense is. Can you be sure that's what was happening based on a single sentence in which he voices disagreement, especially considering that FoU has been scumreading Saber for the entire game?

Because if you can, then I put it to you that you were buddying with FoU by agreeing with him, backing up your CL.

What about his behaviour leads you to believe that he hasn't been converted?

It hasn't changed, period. It's still consistent. The only thing that's changed is how other people react to him, specifically you.

Oh? Do point this out for me, please. When did my opinion change, and from what?

FallacyofUrist As with "Trump IV", there's the pot of coffee. The summaries of his cases don't feel quite right - his case against FillipK could also apply against Saber. Opened day 3 by repeating attack on Saber while calling out hector. Claims Trapmaster, targeted only me. Convinced Hector is town still for "good hunting". But takes prompts from Hector, too... If he was converted, then Hector is CL, but somewhat town read

I can fault this conclusion, however, particularly when you say that his summaries don't feel right. I'd like to see you trying to clear them up so you don't feel uncomfortable with them. Which summaries in paritcular, if any, don't feel right? What makes you feel like that?

I'm not sure how you can say I'm the CL if he was converted, seems a bit backwards to me. Could you talk me through your logic here?

Location of summaries
1. It doesn't sit right with me that he doesn't notice that Saber didn't do any scum hunting, but said that same thing about FillipK as if Saber was innocent of that. Everything he is accusing FillipK of in his summaries, Saber is also guilty of, PLUS what he's accusing Saber of, and yet he's voting for FillipK.

2. So my logic: If falacy is the convert, who converted him? Saber, you, OSG, or myself? Saber wouldn't make sense, unless they've been doing some elaborate bussing. OSG wouldn't make sense, because I for one believe his claimed ability. I don't make sense, because I'm confirmed not the clone lord to myself. By process of elimination, if Falacy was converted, the only person who could have done it would be you. So why would he then claim megggas and you can't be the clone lord? Because if he's converted, megggas is dead and a safe fake-target (or maybe he really did target megggas N1), and it draws suspicion away from you.

1. Okay. You could also apply what he was saying about Saber to fillipk. He also said he didn't want to be lynched, and fobbed off attention onto the people who voted/FoS'd him.

2. In regards to Saber not converting FoU: why not? Bussing is a possibility, and it doesn't necessarily have to have been that way all game, could've been an N2 conversion. FoU or Saber could be CL in this case, though FoU is less likely in that instance.

You may believe OSG's claim, but this doesn't rule him out of being CL. You might just be falling for a fakeclaim.

Hector13 Still observant through day 2. Less active hunting, shorter posts, but still active and responsive. Thinks Saber is noob town. Opens day 3 with vote for OSG without explaining why. Suspects FoU and stubbornly blocks FoU's efforts, waiting for Saber, still insisting Saber does not seem scummy. Claims VT once Saber does.Very likely converted Night 2, would imply Saber is CL

More explaining to do. You say that I'm likely to have been converted, and if so, that would mean Saber is CL.

Unfortunately, that's not a good argument since a) you don't know if I've been converted and b) how am I any more likely than the others to have been converted. You, for example, softclaimed a PR. Why would Saber, someone who has claimed to be new, risk leaving a PR unchecked and go for someone who has been active but hasn't suspected him post-D1?

a) I have strong reason to suspect you've been converted, even if I don't know
b) maybe night 1 they tried to convert me and failed. I hadn't claimed my 1-shot convert immune, so maybe they figured I was just immune and HAD to leave the PR unchecked. Or maybe you were converted before I softclaimed.

Honestly, again, it's a matter of proccess of elimination.
Potential Clone Lord:  ------ Reason they can't have converted you:
Me:        Can kill
OSG: Well... the case is loose, but they could have. They DID claim to target you, and claim you're not the CL. It would be true if they were the CL.
Falacy: Too busy asking you to claim to be part of your team. You'd have to be more cooperative.
Leaving only Saber. Maaaaaybe OSG.

a) Fair enough. I refer you to William of Ockham's quote below. Trying to conclude who the CL could be by assuming who the convert was is making too many assumptions relative to only assuming who the CL could be.

b) All this assuming I'm a convert: I shall refer you again to the third paragraph from the top in this response regarding a scum-team composed of myself and FoU.

I agree with OSG being a potential CL if I were a convert, considering what he's claiming.

I might be the one that had the killing-role, and you converted me and took it upon yourself. Obviously if that were the case I wouldn't say, but hey, let's be thorough here.

Saber could've done it too.

So... anyone could've converted me, being the most active player. All I'd have to do is scum-hunt like I have been to avoid unnecessary suspicion. Most likely being OSG, Saber and FoU, in that order.

Again, it feels a bit backwards to think "if x was converted then y must be CL." but this could just be a difference in scum-hunting... it seems like you're making two assumptions, rather than just one (e.g. "y is CL because of z behaviour") and the more assumptions you have to make, the more likely you are to be wrong.

Sherlock Holmes: When you eliminate all the impossibilities, whatever remains, no matter how improbably, must be the truth.

Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

We could go back and forth like that all day, but that would detract from what we need to do, so I shall merely ask: have you eliminated all impossibilities? If so, how do you know?

[origamiscienceguy]

I am not going to vote Hector no matter what happens for these reasons:

There is most likely the CL and 1 cultist. that is 2v3, the only possible way for us to win is if either we lynch the CL or Flabort kills the CL. So finding the CL is the only way to win. Luckily, we have two shots to do it assuming Flabort is telling the truth about having a nightkill. I believe he is telling the truth about having a night kill because nobody counter-claimed.

My ability allows me to see if someone is the clone lord. And I know that Hector is not the clone lord. I do not think that the Clone Lord would be able to bypass my ability because that would make my role worthless. Therefore, I am certain that Hector is not the clone lord, and lynching the clone lord is all that matters, so I will not be voting for Hector.

[hector13]

So... Why say that?

[hector13]

What do you all think about the potential that flabort is CL, and has the option between a conversion or a kill during the night-phase?

[origamiscienceguy]

I do not think so. It gives him too much power.

[hector13]

Spoiler: Process of Elimination (click to show/hide)

Okay, I know that not everyone has weighed in with that, but I think we've all mentioned at some point during proceedings that the CL having a kill as well as a conversion power would be a bit too OP, so I'm going with that.

Basically I'm going to set things out in a process of elimination angle from my perspective.

Flabort, having no counterclaims to being the vig, is not the CL. This leaves myself, OSG, FoU and Saber.

OSG has cleared me with his PR. This rules out myself, and while it doesn't completely clear OSG, I know he's correct in that I started the game as town, so it rules him out too, leaving FoU and Saber. A lot of you will likely be in this position, not sharing the next bit, but hear me out.

I appreciate that my gut-feeling is not going to clear him in anyone else's eyes, but I believe that Saber's actions during D1 and D2 were n00b town, so he at least started the game out as town, and is thus not CL. This leaves FoU.

So now we move to my case against FoU:

A repeated claim?

In this post (which also contains my initial case against him) FoU claims a role. This role seems like a combination of ChromaticWasp's role (find out if someone has been converted, won't find CL) and OSG's role (find out someone's initial alignment, won't find converts) but with a much more limited scope.

Being able to set multiple traps - which could mean multiple per night, or placing a trap on another player during the following night - makes the role a bit useless in that you wouldn't know which trap, and thus which player, was acted upon, so the role is much less useful after N1 or if you don't target the same player every night. Given CW's confirmed role and OSG's claimed role, FoU's claimed role seems quite pointless, so it has to be a fakeclaim.

MYLO, you're so confident!

FoU's final post of D2 is him being quite confident in his vote on fillipk, while acknowledging that the game is in MYLO time. Note how he doesn't say fillipk is actually scum, just that he should be lynched.

After a little pressure D3, FoU admits he wasn't sure that fillipk was scum. In what was likely a MYLO situation, in which you might expect a townie to be a bit more careful with their vote, especially when they're not absolutely certain someone is scum.

Compare this to his behaviour during what is likely a LYLO situation, in which he has voted:

Saber - his eternal target, apparently.

Myself - an OMGUS, if ever there was one, and removed after I tell him to build a case on me which he knows doesn't exist.

Back to Saber - some interesting reasoning there, evidently 20 minutes is enough to raise his suspicions again.

And finally his vote rests on flabort - this apparently a pressure vote... wishy washy does not even begin to describe this turn of events.

Let's lock this one up...

FoU has acknowledged he was jailed N1, and here we find ourselves on D3, with fewer than 3 cult. No cult has been killed so far, and both night phases have ended early, meaning everyone with a night action PM'd one to DA. We can thus conclude that the reason we have fewer than 3 cult at this point is because the CL was blocked N1, and was unable to convert someone.

If we carry this a little further, FoU also said he acted upon flabort N2, and flabort has claimed 1-shot immunity to conversion, so we could conceivably win the game by lynching FoU.


Unfortunately... and this kills me, it really does hurt, but I need y'all to know my thoughts: this could all be an elaborate ruse after FoU was converted and he's protecting the real CL, BUT(!) I believe FoU's actions at the end of D2 mean that he knew it wasn't MYLO, and didn't have a convert at that point to talk him out of it. He then realised that in lynching someone at the death - despite his claim that he wanted a no-lynch -  he would be under great suspicion during D3, so now he's trying to appear like a harmless, flailing-but-ultimately-useful town power role in order for us to ignore it and not lynch him.

Please, do it, kill the scummy bastard with immediacy!

[origamiscienceguy]

That is actually very concrete. I never thought about him being jailed night one. And it does match with a failed convert one of the nights.

FallacyofUrist

If FallacyofUrist is not the Clone lord, then who do you think Flabort should target? I think Sabertooth because of the process of elimination.

[hector13]

Like I said, I think Saber is town - or rather, I should say I believe his claim that he at least started as VT - ruling him out of being CL, but not cult, so I wouldn't say no.

I'm actually most worried about you, because your spot has been so inactive through days 1 and 2 meaning we don't have much on you...

To be honest, I haven't thought much beyond who the CL is at this point, as it's kind of irrelevant just now, but as I've mentioned before, FoU being CL would probably discount Saber being converted, so it's either you or flabort, and flabort also claimed to have immunity...

[flabort]

Snip.

PFP, so Important parts:
OSG could be lying (about claim/about clearing you)
--> Maybe, but I'm biased, I guess. I want him to be telling the truth. Also, you want it too because he's the one clearing you, if he's lying, it's bad for you too. Also, you just amitted in your post condemning FoU that the PR clearing you does eliminate you as a suspect while your gut doesn't clear Saber, so I guess you conceded that point.
As far as me falling for a fake-claim... at this point of the game we need to be sure we're lynching the right person. If we second guess ourselves constantly like this, we probably won't get the right person. I'm aware it could be OSG, but as far as likelihood goes, I rate Saber and Falacy more likely. You, I regard as likely cult, not likely CL.

When your opinions changed:
--> I said behavior. Which could be the holiday season, I guess, but that still doesn't change that. Be back later with examples, can't fingertype multiquotes from that far back.

Saber's chainsaw defense/FoU's scumread on Saber:
--> The scumread doesn't change the fact that Saber was defending you by attacking FoU's assessment of you.
But if you want to claim I was buddying FoU, then you're distancing yourself from OSG by not engaging with them, from FoU by voting them, and you're buddying Saber (frequently!) By saying they're not suspicious, just n00b town.
The art of picking out buddying/distancing is more fine tuned than taking a random piece of happenstance. You need to look at the actions and determine how deliberate they are. I really do believe that Saber was defending you from FoU, and whenever you say he's n00n town you're defending him too.

Ockham: hmm... I may have taken too many assumptions, true. I'll folow up with a chart later, walk through all the possibilities period and eliminate them properly.
If I'm not too late.

[FallacyofUrist]

We extended. It's definitely not too late(the game ends after the new year, after all).
~~~
... I can only set one trap per night. And by the way: I've said that before.
~~~

I am also a VT. I had assumed everyone else was, but OSG claimed otherwise... But I've already said I think he was the best conversion target, so it probably doesn't matter what he claims...

Okay, I know that not everyone has weighed in with that, but I think we've all mentioned at some point during proceedings that the CL having a kill as well as a conversion power would be a bit too OP, so I'm going with that.

Basically I'm going to set things out in a process of elimination angle from my perspective.

Flabort, having no counterclaims to being the vig, is not the CL. This leaves myself, OSG, FoU and Saber.

OSG has cleared me with his PR. This rules out myself, and while it doesn't completely clear OSG, I know he's correct in that I started the game as town, so it rules him out too, leaving FoU and Saber. A lot of you will likely be in this position, not sharing the next bit, but hear me out.

I appreciate that my gut-feeling is not going to clear him in anyone else's eyes, but I believe that Saber's actions during D1 and D2 were n00b town, so he at least started the game out as town, and is thus not CL. This leaves FoU.

The issue remains that your process of elimination is bloody flawed. Do try better.
Flabort does not have any counterclaims to being the Vig, but could be the Clone Lord claiming his minion's former role(he converted the real killer or such). For that matter, he could be claiming his minion's exact role, and that could be why we haven't lost yet- because Flabort's conversion method failed N1.
Oh no! Your magical fairy godmother warped reality to make this scenario and/or its variants impossible!

Let's move on.
I'm going to quote this AGAIN, for good measure.

I am also a VT. I had assumed everyone else was, but OSG claimed otherwise... But I've already said I think he was the best conversion target, so it probably doesn't matter what he claims...

Ahem. The possibility of OSG being a convert certainly exists- because he was somewhat inactive D2 and D1 the guy he replaced also wasn't active. If you started the game as town... first of all, you could be lying, and are in fact the Clone Lord, with OSG just trying to protect you. Or you could possibly be town, but OSG being cult claiming truthfully that he inspected you earlier to learn your alignment. Oh, and note the above quote, in which you state that it doesn't matter what OSG claims, and that you think he's the best conversion target. In other words, using OSG's claim to remove yourself from the chart is completely invalid. COMPLETELY. AND. UTTERLY. INVALID. All it takes is the possibility of one lie and that entire thought process collapses.
If you didn't have that fairy godmother warping reality for you again, perhaps I could have stopped here.
But no, I need to debunk every bit of it.

So let's move on.
WHY WOULD YOU DO THIS AFTER BEING SO BLOODY TOWNIE? WHY WOULD YOU BE SO IRRATIONAL? WHY MUST YOU CAUSE SUCH IRRITATION TO MY BRAIN!?
Ahem, now that AGH is done... "I appreciate that my gut-feeling is not going to clear him in anyone else's eyes". No, your "feeling" that TigerDude is noob town is useless. USELESS! Good for beginning an investigation, but not for tapping off an argument. Critical argument failure. "but I believe that Saber's actions during D1 and D2 were n00b town, so he at least started the game out as town, and is thus not CL". Critical. Argument. Failure. No, if you want to prove that TigerDude is noob town, give evidence in the form of posts, counterposts, and other RELEVANT stuffs.

Blast it. You used your fairy godmother to blast away that objection.
~~~
First of all, I think I understand what tunneling is now. As compared to my hammering, that is. It simply is focusing on one target and not considering alternate possibilities. Above this sentence, you see a complete debunker of the chain of elimination from hector. Please read all of it. Twice.
~~~
And by the way- I was joking about the fairy godmother bits. Hector can't just warp reality to fit his needs, which are, in this case, tunneling on me.
~~~
And one more thing, Hector:


!!IT WAS ALL AN ELABORATE GAMBIT!!. Given, I didn't know it was until now, but I do now. All the crazy- all a TRAP. And you fell for it. Read above if you don't believe me.
And some more debunkers, for good measure.
~~~

FoU has acknowledged he was jailed N1, and here we find ourselves on D3, with fewer than 3 cult. No cult has been killed so far, and both night phases have ended early, meaning everyone with a night action PM'd one to DA. We can thus conclude that the reason we have fewer than 3 cult at this point is because the CL was blocked N1, and was unable to convert someone.

If we carry this a little further, FoU also said he acted upon flabort N2, and flabort has claimed 1-shot immunity to conversion, so we could conceivably win the game by lynching FoU.

Please, do it, kill the scummy bastard with immediacy!

And now we've progressed to insults. I can tolerate that, but I can't tolerate irrationality.
Yes, I believe I was jailed N1(that's definitely what the flavor suggests, and also what I was told). I admitted as such earlier.
Under no circumstances does that alone make me definitively the Clone Lord.
Let's go through a significant list of possibilities!
One. The Clone Lord tried to convert me N1(and I'm flattered if you did). I was frozen in a block of ice. Think it over.
Two. N1, the Clone Lord targeted TDS, who was killed before conversion as a result of action priority orders.
Three. N1, the Clone Lord targeted the vigilante. Flabort or otherwise. 1-shot conversion immunity has been stated, and for balance reasons, makes sense.
If the Clone Lord managed to convert a target N1, then here's some more reasons we haven't lost.
Four. N2, the Clone Lord targeted Megggas. Who was shot and killed.
Five. N2, the Clone Lord targeted the vigilante. Since I know Flabort wasn't converted N2... oh wow I just realized, assuming flabort has a 1-shot resistance to conversion, he basically couldn't have been converted, since he wasn't converted N2 and if he was gotten night one it would have failed. Assuming his resistance.
Six. One of the so-called "VTs" actually has some sort of shenanigansly power role which thwarted the conversion(could have happened on N1 or N2, by the way).

And only one of these needs to be true in order to thwart your track of conversation.
~~~
~~~

In other news...
Now for the offensive(somewhat smaller, flabort has made good arguments that I can refer you to).
There is no law of physics that forces OSG to be scum. He could have been converted, and would potentially be a desirable target N2 for his unknownness, but any given Clone Lord could have known that, and chosen not to convert him because of it. I know, WIFOM, but it suffices to say in this case that it is possible for OSG to be town. Now, it's still possible for flabort to be the CL claiming his convert's role, but I think I can purpose a theory.

Thank you, flabort.
This may be a restatement of an earlier theory, but now it's backed a bit more firmly.

SaberToothTiger is the CL and hector13 is the convert.
Reason one. The chainsawing. SaberTooth protects hector and vice versa. When I start on Saber, you pull out a minigun and start shooting me with it. I go insane(not really), you keep going, then I spring the trap. You were willing to go through with all this irrationality in order to get me lynched. Considering how good you were being for hunting D2, not being irrational and whatnot...
Reason two. The irrationality, the tunneling on me, really. Willing to go so far out of rationality in order to get me offed.
Reason the third. It just... see, SaberTooth was acting passive, scummy, and tried to get out of attention... if anyone was the Clone Lord, simply based on behavior alone, it would be him. N00b clone lord, not noob town. And now you completely switch tracks to defending him.
~~~
If you need anything more, speak with flabort, I think he's better at offense than I am.
~~~
In conclusion, SaberToothTiger, it was a good game. And I succeeded at setting off my trap.
~~~
With that, Merry Christmas! And a happy new year!

[hector13]

Well, FoU, you're clutching at straws there. You also used the quote twice about OSG's claim, in more or less the same argument. I also like the way you emphasise the "it's all an elaborate gambit" part, and then say in the next sentence that no actually, it's not.

Do explain that part, while I formulate a response.

[FallacyofUrist]

now you're the one grasping at straws(which, by the way, are useless to you).

Do explain that part, while I formulate a response.

Please do. I want to see if you try to pull another fairy godmother trick.

You also used the quote twice about OSG's claim, in more or less the same argument.

... explain. I could use some elaboration on this.

I also like the way you emphasise the "it's all an elaborate gambit" part, and then say in the next sentence that no actually, it's not.

That had better be sarcasm.

!!IT WAS ALL AN ELABORATE GAMBIT!!. Given, I didn't know it was until now, but I do now. All the crazy- all a TRAP. And you fell for it. Read above if you don't believe me.

"Given, I didn't know it was until now, but I do now. All the crazy- all a TRAP." How does this, in any way, say it's not a gambit?

[hector13]

You just did it again with the massive emphasis on this being a gambit... and that part says it's not a gambit because you admit it wasn't a gambit until now. So it wasn't a gambit.

But anyway, I will bite. Explain your gambit. We have another 5 days or so to go, I'm sure you can figure out between now and then. 'cept I'm not going to give you all that time to pull something out of the air, because it being a gambit means it's something you've already put some thought into. So go ahead, I'd like your next post to outline your gambit and what you were trying to achieve with it.

Still working on my riposte, nearly done.

[FallacyofUrist]

You just did it again with the massive emphasis on this being a gambit... and that part says it's not a gambit because you admit it wasn't a gambit until now. So it wasn't a gambit.

But anyway, I will bite. Explain your gambit. We have another 5 days or so to go, I'm sure you can figure out between now and then. 'cept I'm not going to give you all that time to pull something out of the air, because it being a gambit means it's something you've already put some thought into. So go ahead, I'd like your next post to outline your gambit and what you were trying to achieve with it.

Like I said, I didn't realize it was a gambit until now.
Bay 12. Deal with it.

In any case- like I said- IT WAS A TRAP. I acted insane as bait. You went after the bait. I was trying to get you(or someone else) to slip up in their attack on me. And you did.

Now riposte so I can crush you.