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Author Topic: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason  (Read 12625 times)

Bauglir

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #60 on: October 26, 2015, 02:23:44 pm »

conspiracy theories can be best distinguished from descriptions of real conspiracies by the degree to which defenders point out the latter as evidence that these sorts of things happen

you don't see people insisting that the faked moon landing is proof the government is up to enough no good that it's plausible the president would have a hotel ransacked

even knowing what i know now, i think it would be reasonable to reject claims of government internet monitoring 10 years ago if the primary effort to convince people rested on the existence of MKULTRA proving that the government is up to shady business
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In the days when Sussman was a novice, Minsky once came to him as he sat hacking at the PDP-6.
“What are you doing?”, asked Minsky. “I am training a randomly wired neural net to play Tic-Tac-Toe” Sussman replied. “Why is the net wired randomly?”, asked Minsky. “I do not want it to have any preconceptions of how to play”, Sussman said.
Minsky then shut his eyes. “Why do you close your eyes?”, Sussman asked his teacher.
“So that the room will be empty.”
At that moment, Sussman was enlightened.

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #61 on: October 26, 2015, 02:37:08 pm »

This is interesting.
Here's hoping no flamewar.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #62 on: October 26, 2015, 03:18:00 pm »

As for the Holocaust, even most actual Nazis on /pol/ don't sincerely claim that the Holocaust never happened.
imblyin u /pol/lack

They do, however, dispute the number and method of deaths. The only way that could be construed as claiming that it never happened is if your definition of "Holocaust" is extremely narrow, in which 6 million Jews were maliciously gassed to death with cyanide, and the bodies subsequently incinerated. Is an argument that 3 million Jews died of starvation and disease through maliciously terrible conditions Holocaust denial? Where do we draw the line between historical inquiry and conspiracy theory?
Pointless questions, as denying it as gassing is illegal whether you frame it historical inquiry or conspiracy theory

even knowing what i know now, i think it would be reasonable to reject claims of government internet monitoring 10 years ago if the primary effort to convince people rested on the existence of MKULTRA proving that the government is up to shady business
Yeah and you'd also have been wrong in spite of the reasonable reasons, bad example :P

This is interesting.
Here's hoping no flamewar.
That's how you jynx a thread

LordBucket

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #63 on: October 26, 2015, 03:48:38 pm »

They do, however, dispute the number and method of deaths. The only way that could be construed as claiming that it never happened is if your definition of "Holocaust" is extremely narrow, in which 6 million Jews were maliciously gassed to death with cyanide, and the bodies subsequently incinerated. Is an argument that 3 million Jews died of starvation and disease through maliciously terrible conditions Holocaust denial? Where do we draw the line between historical inquiry and conspiracy theory?
Pointless questions, as denying it as gassing is illegal whether you frame it historical inquiry or conspiracy theory

In Germany, yes. Not in the US. Probably not in a lot of other places too.

Also, legality, morality, common sense, logical process and actual fact don't always agree with each other. A thing being illegal is not sufficient to render questions about it pointless.

Loud Whispers

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #64 on: October 26, 2015, 03:58:34 pm »

In Germany, yes. Not in the US. Probably not in a lot of other places too.
Most of Europe does, in addition those that do not have nonetheless prosecuted using hate speech laws and even in those that do not end up doing that the rest are made up of countries where doing so is tantamount to forfeiting any career opportunities.

Also, legality, morality, common sense, logical process and actual fact don't always agree with each other. A thing being illegal is not sufficient to render questions about it pointless.
Yes but a thing being illegal renders questions about it risky and not worth discussing for fear of consequences.

ggamer

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #65 on: October 26, 2015, 03:59:47 pm »

So apparently the FBI having killed MLK jr is common knowledge? Like, everyone i've brought this up with is pretty much unsuprised by it

mainiac

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #66 on: October 26, 2015, 04:36:23 pm »

And of course, ten years ago, the idea that the government was spying on just about all internet communications would have been dismissed as yet another conspiracy theory. We know now that it's actually happening.

I'm sorry but that is complete and utter bullshit.  When the patriot act was under debate someone could have watched CSPAN and see congress critters warning about this.  They could have read editorials in the New York Times.  They could have read my fucking college newspaper.

People are so obsessed with the "secret sauce" and special information.  It cant just be that we fucked up our laws in a way that lead to predicable abuses of the bad system we set up.  No it has to be something more dramatic that only the special people with the superior insight saw.  It reminds me of how back when 538 was disrupting the political forecasting game so many people were incredulous at the concept.  Nate Silver was just using publicly available information and simple math!  He didn't trade in rumor and innuendo at all.  Of course then it turned out that using publicly available information actually told you a hell of a lot more then all the rumors and speculation and the Nate Silvers of the world drove the old guys out of the business.
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Bauglir

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #67 on: October 26, 2015, 04:44:54 pm »

Yeah and you'd also have been wrong in spite of the reasonable reasons, bad example :P
no that was literally the reason i picked it

and the reason i worded it with that "if" clause is because there were much better arguments that could have been made at the time

but my point is that no degree of mistrusting the government is good reason to trust your sources, and that's what usually separates conspiracy theories from descriptions of real conspiracies - the latter rely on evidence and cogent argument, while the former are primarily an emotional appeal that hopes to slip by because it spends all its time trying to discredit the authoritative account instead of substantiating itself

or at least that's been my experience

it's why this isn't so far off the mark

EDIT: i guess the other thing i'm trying to say is that of course you can't distinguish these things based on the actual particulars being alleged. the real world is occasionally very wacky, indeed. the difference is whether the primary motivation is an emotional need to see order where there isn't any or to rebel against authority, or it's to find a straightforward answer to a weird question like "why are there all those flashlights on in that hotel room"
« Last Edit: October 26, 2015, 04:53:46 pm by Bauglir »
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In the days when Sussman was a novice, Minsky once came to him as he sat hacking at the PDP-6.
“What are you doing?”, asked Minsky. “I am training a randomly wired neural net to play Tic-Tac-Toe” Sussman replied. “Why is the net wired randomly?”, asked Minsky. “I do not want it to have any preconceptions of how to play”, Sussman said.
Minsky then shut his eyes. “Why do you close your eyes?”, Sussman asked his teacher.
“So that the room will be empty.”
At that moment, Sussman was enlightened.

LordBucket

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #68 on: October 26, 2015, 06:42:42 pm »

a thing being illegal renders questions about it risky and not worth discussing for fear of consequences.

Specific example aside, that's a horrible worldview you're espousing.

Loud Whispers

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #69 on: October 26, 2015, 06:57:15 pm »

a thing being illegal renders questions about it risky and not worth discussing for fear of consequences.
Specific example aside, that's a horrible worldview you're espousing.
That I know. It's just how it is, when you're not a public figure or an anonymous figure you don't get to ask these questions. For this reason I would also not like to be a public figure.

LordBucket

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #70 on: October 26, 2015, 07:16:08 pm »

That I know. It's just how it is, when you're not a public figure or an anonymous figure you don't get to ask these questions. For this reason I would also not like to be a public figure.

Are you kidding? I'd love to be a public figure. Complete strangers hanging on my every word, asking for autographs and journalists banging on my door for interviews and bribes and hot Russian spy chicks trying to seduce me for blackmail material?

Yes, please!

Loud Whispers

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #71 on: October 26, 2015, 07:22:13 pm »

Are you kidding? I'd love to be a public figure. Complete strangers hanging on my every word, asking for autographs and journalists banging on my door for interviews and bribes and hot Russian spy chicks trying to seduce me for blackmail material?
Yes, please!
Hanging on your every word, waiting for you to slip up. You'd be a loner in company.

Dutrius

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #72 on: October 26, 2015, 07:27:43 pm »

IIRC, the late Patrick Moore joined the Flat Earth society. I'm not sure if he did it for a joke or not.

It strikes me as rather ironic. I mean his maps of the moon during the 50's and 60's were some of the best in the world. They were used in the Apollo Program (Oh boy... Someone in my school did an essay on how the footage from Moon Landings were faked. He changed his mind after learning about how dust behaves in low gravity, though).
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strawberry-wine

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #73 on: October 26, 2015, 10:10:09 pm »

Are you kidding? I'd love to be a public figure. Complete strangers hanging on my every word, asking for autographs and journalists banging on my door for interviews and bribes and hot Russian spy chicks trying to seduce me for blackmail material?
Yes, please!
Hanging on your every word, waiting for you to slip up. You'd be a loner in company.

The goal of many a public figure is to make enough money that they can buy their privacy back  :P
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sprinkled chariot

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Re: Conspiracy theories and the failure of reason
« Reply #74 on: October 27, 2015, 03:51:57 pm »

October revolution was made by jews to remove Russia from christianity
Catholic church is devils scheme made for making christians to abolish true byzantine christianity
Nikon was antichrist and performed his reforms in church to lead people away from true christianity
Peter the great was secretly replaced by german child tasked  to kill orthodox church and make people shave their faces, so they lose the love of god
Peter the third did not die actually.
Gorbachev was undercover CIA agent.
Hitler was british project for ruining soviet union.
Chernobyl nuclear plant was broken by CIA.
Plan of Dallas.
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