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[misko27]

And the russians are pissed. I'm really not entirely sympathetic. The Cold War should already have shown that in a chaotic situation, planes have a tendency to get shot down over borders they aren't supposed to be over.^[1][2][3] (Note that in on my second citation, a US congressman was killed.) Plus, I mean, after the incident with Malaysia airlines, well, one would figure.

As it stands, what Turkey is doing with ISIS is irrelevant to the fact of Turkey shooting down Russian jets. Turkey has plenty of other reasons to dislike Russia's actions in Syria, not the least of which because they are on different sides of Assad, and Turkey recently asking Russia to stop bombing Turkmans. What is actually interesting is how this will change the diplomatic situation. What do you think will happen next? I wonder how Russia and NATO will react.

[miljan]

"The Sukhoi Su-24 is a supersonic, all-weather attack aircraft/interdictor developed in the Soviet Union" - Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-24
The Sukhoi Su-24 (NATO reporting name: Fencer) is a supersonic, all-weather bomber aircraft developed in the Soviet Union.

What wiki are you using? Can you link it? I mean I know the air craft is a bomber, but interested whose wiki version has the wrong information

[Shadowlord]

Eh? Wikipedia, of course. Here, I took a screenshot.


Looks like someone changed it after I quoted it.

Edit: ... wikipedia claims that was 2 hours ago, but that's impossible - it's only been 20 minutes since I copied the text right off the page.

[ivze]

An edit-war likely...
Most people do not know what it means, and it sounds like "interceptor".

"Interdictor" is a rare word, I even't didn't know it's meaning... This means bomber, that works against targets far behind the front line. This consists well with what SU-24 is. These planes come in pair: armored subsonic SU-25 for frontal zone and light supersonic SU-24 for attacking far targets.

[smjjames]

And the russians are pissed. I'm really not entirely sympathetic. The Cold War should already have shown that in a chaotic situation, planes have a tendency to get shot down over borders they aren't supposed to be over.^[1][2][3] (Note that in on my second citation, a US congressman was killed.) Plus, I mean, after the incident with Malaysia airlines, well, one would figure.

As it stands, what Turkey is doing with ISIS is irrelevant to the fact of Turkey shooting down Russian jets. Turkey has plenty of other reasons to dislike Russia's actions in Syria, not the least of which because they are on different sides of Assad, and Turkey recently asking Russia to stop bombing Turkmans. What is actually interesting is how this will change the diplomatic situation. What do you think will happen next? I wonder how Russia and NATO will react.

Russia has already reacted by metaphorically whipping out their knives and saying 'do that again and I'll stab you', now it's NATO's move, which they have yet to make. Neither NATO (other than Turkey maybe) or Russia really have the desire to escalate it, so, things might calm down.

[miljan]

Eh? Wikipedia, of course. Here, I took a screenshot.

Looks like someone changed it after I quoted it.

Edit: ... wikipedia claims that was 2 hours ago, but that's impossible - it's only been 20 minutes since I copied the text right off the page.

Yea, they fixed the error, i thought you had a wiki in some other language than english, but from things you said, looks like even english wiki was not correct before

[Sergarr]

God dammit, that was probably the worst timing on my internet to go out for a whole day D:

Anyway, I think like 90% of the current anti-Turkey's build-up is not just because they shot down an aircraft (although that's already quite serious), it's that they almost immediately killed the pilots through their proxy "tribesmen" forces and touted it as "legitimate defence". That's the kind of deranged un-diplomatic behaviour that must be counter-acted.

Also, UR:

I can bet that Russia will pretend that nothing happened

It appears that you've, in fact, lost your bet.

[smjjames]

God dammit, that was probably the worst timing on my internet to go out for a whole day D:

Anyway, I think like 90% of the current anti-Turkey's build-up is not just because they shot down an aircraft (although that's already quite serious), it's that they almost immediately killed the pilots through their proxy "tribesmen" forces and touted it as "legitimate defence". That's the kind of deranged un-diplomatic behaviour that must be counter-acted.

*types and then erases a jab at proxy forces* We don't know (and probably never will) whether it was just plain ignorance that they killed the pilots or had orders to. Still, I thought the 'airspace violation' was going to be over a larger stretch of territory, not a tiny bit of territory poking into Syria that someone decided to shortcut through.

[miljan]

The more strange thing is the 10 time warning for 5 minutes, when the air planes where for 20 seconds in turkish territory (the area is around 3 km wide i think). And they were probably shut down when they were in syria territory.

[Starver]

Turks(Probably almost exclusively Anti-Kurd)
Kurds(Rebels? But friendly with regime? and the West?  More interested in self preservation...)

Spoiler: A graphic I saw recently that perhaps covers some of the complexities (click to show/hide)

[Vilanat]

God dammit, that was probably the worst timing on my internet to go out for a whole day D:

Anyway, I think like 90% of the current anti-Turkey's build-up is not just because they shot down an aircraft (although that's already quite serious), it's that they almost immediately killed the pilots through their proxy "tribesmen" forces and touted it as "legitimate defence". That's the kind of deranged un-diplomatic behaviour that must be counter-acted.

Those "tribesmen" might be funded and aided by Turkey, but Turkey never ordered them to shoot the parachuting pilots.

However, it does speaks volume about what kind of people those "tribesmen" are and it wouldn't surprise me to find many ISIS and Al Qaeda supporters among them.

[Sheb]

Well, they haven't be formed to obey the law of war, and Russia has been bombing them. I can understand them, if not condone what they did.

The warnings Turkey gave to the Su-24 where given when the place was still over Syria. Apparently they've been giving those warnings to all Russian and Syrian planes flying within 15km of the border. That probably explain why the Russian plane didn't answer (although it's not clear if it didn't answer or didn't heed the warnings from the phrasing of the Turks. And of course we probably will never know, now that the pilots are dead): answering would be acknowledging some kind of Turkish sovereignty over that airspace. Also, that plane not only crossed only a tiny finger of Turkish territory, but was at best a few km from the "tip" of said finger. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a mistake by a pilot trying to fly close to the border.

So basically Turkey edited it's planes RoE to cause such a shoot-out as soon as the occasion presented itself.Why? My theory is that it's because Erdogan doesn't like the rapproachment between Russia and the West post-Paris and want to create tensions.

People here keep referring to other Russian violations of Turkish air space. It would be nice to know when the last one occured, to know when the RoE were changed.

[Culise]

There was an emergency meeting of NATO in early October due (like this one) to incursions in Hatay province on October 3-4.  At the time, Russia claimed they would take measures to avoid it happening again.  Turkey, at the time, warned that they would respond if provoked again.  Either Russia in general or the pilot in particular apparently decided this would mean another sternly-worded letter.  Unfortunately for Russia, Turkey isn't most countries, and unlike the end result of last year's brinksmanship in Finland and Estonia, Turkey responded with firmer measures. 

That said, Russia is now claiming that their plane never got within a kilometer of the Turkish-Syrian border.  Hold on a tick....here is apparently the official Russian map.  This obviously rather blatantly contradicts the Turkish-released data posted a couple pages back.

[nenjin]

Yeah, I've now seen two digital flight maps from both countries that are basically calling the other a liar. And how is anyone supposed to affirm whether anyone's radar data was altered?

Personally, with all the Russian flybys in the last couple of years I'm more willing to believe a Russian plane was in Turkish airspace than not.

[misko27]

Turkey is kinda crazy. Erdogan is totally the kind of guy to take "we will shoot down your planes" seriously. Course, as the stuff I posted earlier shows, so do a lot of countries, like the USA, and the USSR.

There was an emergency meeting of NATO in early October due (like this one) to incursions in Hatay province on October 3-4.  At the time, Russia claimed they would take measures to avoid it happening again.  Turkey, at the time, warned that they would respond if provoked again.  Either Russia in general or the pilot in particular apparently decided this would mean another sternly-worded letter.  Unfortunately for Russia, Turkey isn't most countries, and unlike the end result of last year's brinksmanship in Finland and Estonia, Turkey responded with firmer measures. 

That said, Russia is now claiming that their plane never got within a kilometer of the Turkish-Syrian border.  Hold on a tick....here is apparently the official Russian map.  This obviously rather blatantly contradicts the Turkish-released data posted a couple pages back.

That is interesting. It makes sense that Russia would want to show that they were on the right side of the border, since that rather radically changes the story.

Story 1: Turkey responds to Russia's violation the way they said that they would. Russia is mad, but it's their fault.
Story 2: Turkey attacked a Russian Jet, unprovoked.

I think the sum total of all this will be a simple ratcheting up in tensions.