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Author Topic: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)  (Read 273902 times)

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2445 on: June 03, 2024, 04:57:16 pm »

You're forgetting Egypt, which also doesn't want to help either. :P

But let's be realistic: countries that get plenty of food aid still have mass famine. It doesn't actually help much - in fact, many analysts think it's harmful on net.
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hector13

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2446 on: June 03, 2024, 06:07:20 pm »

Well, Israel controls the Gazan side of the Rafah border, and Egypt want that returned to the Palestinians before they’ll open their side.

Egypt certainly doesn’t want to deal with refugees if it doesn’t have to, so I can’t imagine they’re particularly averse to aid in general though.

Food aid needs to get to the right places for it to be any good, sure, but as you point out, there isn’t much arable land in Gaza at the best of times - two thirds of Gaza relied on food aid prior to the war, after all - never mind when it’s an active war zone, so I’d be disinclined to agree with the sentiment that, at least as it pertains to Gaza, it’s an overall bad thing.
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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2447 on: June 03, 2024, 07:44:11 pm »

Food aid needs to get to the right places for it to be any good, sure, but as you point out, there isn’t much arable land in Gaza at the best of times - two thirds of Gaza relied on food aid prior to the war, after all - never mind when it’s an active war zone, so I’d be disinclined to agree with the sentiment that, at least as it pertains to Gaza, it’s an overall bad thing.
Well, I would argue that what they need isn't food aid, which mostly seems to just exacerbate problems, but a functioning economy with actual supply lines. That's why I said before in the locked thread that the UN, or somebody, needs to man up and take control of the region - it should probably just be put under the administration of Egypt whether they want it or not (they don't). No dense urban agglomeration with no surrounding resource base has ever not been a disaster area. It's true that, in theory, they at least have gas resources to develop which they could then sell to support themselves if Israel were out of the way, but it's clear that they don't have the capital to do that on their own, either - and didn't since before Israel was on the map. Of course the present conditions make that worse because nobody wants to invest in infrastructure Israel might bomb, but the underlying problem would still be there. Even if that were somehow solved and Hamas was replaced by some peaceful government that other countries could trust with their investments, Gaza's best available future is still probably as a colony of foreign companies that extract the gas using wholly owned foreign capital and offer a pittance to the natives - a well established model elsewhere.

Despite what many people seem to think, Israel isn't actually run by completely unreasonable psychopaths - just look at the Abraham Accords. Although by NOW the situation has deteriorated to the point where popular opinion in Israel strongly favors destroying Gaza until it stops bothering them, there was ample opportunity for an agreement if any of the rich Arab countries was willing to take responsibility for it and guarantee an end to the Hamas attacks - but two and a half million people crammed into less than a hundred fifty square miles, with no resource base to speak of, de facto run by a terrorist organization with a history of seizing foreign aid and foreign investments, will always be an albatross. Israel isn't helping, but they didn't make it that way either. Given the degree of pain the current situation is causing for Israel, too, in multiple domains, I strongly suspect that the current government would still accept a two-state solution under diplomatic pressure if some adequate power was willing to provide that guarantee; nobody is willing to do it.

Regarding Egypt's border, I think we all know that's purely theatrical. It's easy to demand something that you know won't happen in exchange for something you don't want to do. At the end of the day, Egypt doesn't really care about Gazans either and is content to refuse to help them while letting Israel take the blame. Not only Egypt, but the US and other western countries could demand a humanitarian corridor too - well, maybe not the US, after our embarrassing pier debacle - if the will were there. It's not because of loving Israel too much that they don't.

I guess I don't really have much of a point here, unless it's to say that Gaza, like many places, is just a terrible place to live by its inherent characteristics and there's probably nothing anyone can do to make it much better. I'll happily agree that that doesn't mean Israel should be making it worse either, but I just can't stand simplistic platitudes. It would be stupid to expect any country to sit idly by and allow an aggressive neighbor to behave the way Gaza has without responding, and it would be stupid to think Hamas would stop if Israel were nicer when they have repeatedly pledged otherwise; the only way the cycle of violence will end is for someone stronger to step in.
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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2448 on: June 05, 2024, 02:25:16 am »

Did the imminent famine in Gaza happen? Do we have visual evidence of thousands and thousands of malnourished or dead people? It was promised by all those experts and with Israel fighting in Rafah it should be worse, right? Or is this famine still imaginary imminent?
after our embarrassing pier debacle
Debacle aspect was cost overruns (I heard contractors first but heard also that it was government work and so am not sure and wondering what happened to reporting) and I think possbly time estimate overruns to construct, as well as a better understanding of Churchill's fear for piers on D-Day. However that is coming from someone like me who doesn't know anything about it or how difficult it is to keep the things together in bad weather. News reports are sparse but it appears the estimate by the US military is that a little over 1000 metric tonnes had been dropped off, with 900 distributed, by the time the pier broke apart. The pier was expected to start receiving repairs around a week afterwards, with it being replaced once complete and retowed with the Israeli Navy's kind assistance.

The reason why it's important even if you are gung-ho is because the worse civilian conditions become, the worse the pressure on the government becomes from outside while it is under a lot of strain already domestically, not least from the prime minister's pre-war political allies. The pier is obviously supplementary in capability, but in the most famous siege of the 20th century (in which I am not otherwise making comparisons) it is clear that if only a trickle of supply goes in it is better than no supply at all, in this case in it's impact on civilians due to the effect on policy within the government.
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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2449 on: June 05, 2024, 11:03:05 am »

The (far-right mostly?) Israelis are celebrating flag day, not in Israel, but in occupied East Jerusalem.
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There is something to be said about, if the stakes are as high, maybe reconsider your certitudes. One has to be aggressively allistic to feel entitled to be able to trust. But it won't happen to me, my bit doesn't count etc etc... Just saying, after my recent experiences I couldn't trust the public if I wanted to. People got their risk assessment neurons rotten and replaced with game theory. Folks walk around like fat turkeys taunting the world to slaughter them.

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2450 on: June 05, 2024, 11:19:09 am »

The reason why it's important even if you are gung-ho
I don't think anyone here is "gung-ho", certainly not Strongpoint, who has got the most reason of any of us (that is, tying with a couple others who have the same reason) to understand the costs of modern warfare.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2451 on: June 05, 2024, 12:51:20 pm »

My main current problem with the war in Gaza is that Israel is not doing its duty of the occupying power. Occupying power should estabilish law and order. Ocuupiying power should provide some level of infrastructure. Even Russia, for the most part, is doing that. (with an added package of people dissappearing...)

Israel is allowing more than enough food to Gaza and Gaza has no famine at all. During famine, food markets are fiercely guarded and they are grim places. During famine, you don't make videos how cute hungry Palestinian children share their meals with their cats - cats are eaten by children. During famine, people don't complain about the poor quality or taste of the aid, they devour anything edible. During famine accces to the coast with a faint hope to catch some fish in overfished waters is valued commodity not a place to enjoy a sunny day on the beach. During famine there are numerous children looking like they are straight from a horror movie During famine there are half-mad starving people on the streets together with malnourished bodies lying everywhere.

It is what famine is. It is a very terrible thing, one of the worst things that can happen to a human society and I am actually very, very, very annoyed when this word is missused.


What Gaza has is food shortages among certain groups of people. Caused not by the lack of food but by the lack of law and order. Gangs (both Hamas affilated and independent ones) get lion's share of the food, they profit from it by bleeding already suffering population dry. And as I wrote above - I blame Israel for this. If you invade someone, whatever your reason is, please estabilish some kind of occupying administration.
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hector13

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2452 on: June 05, 2024, 03:02:00 pm »

Israel is allowing more than enough food to Gaza and Gaza has no famine at all.

Contrary to what the organizations actually delivering the aid are saying, so citation needed.

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During famine, food markets are fiercely guarded and they are grim places.

Citation needed this isn’t happening.

I’d also like to remind you of the aid convoy protected by the IDF that was stormed by desperately hungry people at the end of February, three months ago.

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During famine, you don't make videos how cute hungry Palestinian children share their meals with their cats - cats are eaten by children.

Citation needed the former is happening and the latter isn’t.

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During famine, people don't complain about the poor quality or taste of the aid, they devour anything edible.

Citation needed of complaints from Gazans.

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During famine accces to the coast with a faint hope to catch some fish in overfished waters is valued commodity not a place to enjoy a sunny day on the beach.

Citation needed on both counts.

Quote
During famine there are numerous children looking like they are straight from a horror movie During famine there are half-mad starving people on the streets together with malnourished bodies lying everywhere.

Citation needed.

Is it possible that you’re not seeing the things you describe because no media is allowed into Gaza, unless escorted and approved by the IDF?

Why do you think they’re - including Egypt - not allowing the international media into Gaza?

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It is what famine is. It is a very terrible thing, one of the worst things that can happen to a human society and I am actually very, very, very annoyed when this word is missused.

There are probably better things to get very, very, very annoyed about.

Famine is a widespread shortage of food. The international organization whose raison d’etre is measuring hunger said in March - linked in one of myriad other places you’ve dropped your unsourced claims - the entire population of Gaza is facing famine.

Consequently, it’s not being misused, except by you. Check the dictionary, check Wikipedia, check the IPC website.

Now, I can offer you leeway and say a famine hasn’t been declared, and it probably never will. Reason? Deaths of 2 per 10,000 people per day by malnutrition need to be recorded.  Deaths are recorded at medical facilities in Gaza, and the last time I checked, only 1/3 were operating, and weren’t operating anywhere near full capacity.

Quote
What Gaza has is food shortages among certain groups of people. Caused not by the lack of food but by the lack of law and order. Gangs (both Hamas affilated and independent ones) get lion's share of the food, they profit from it by bleeding already suffering population dry. And as I wrote above - I blame Israel for this. If you invade someone, whatever your reason is, please estabilish some kind of occupying administration.

These certain groups being “everyone in Gaza”. The lack of law and order is caused by desperately hungry people doing desperate things for food… like storming en masse the aforementioned aid convoy protected by the IDF, and getting shot in the process.
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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2453 on: June 05, 2024, 03:50:20 pm »

There are probably better things to get very, very, very annoyed about.

Famine is a widespread shortage of food. The international organization whose raison d’etre is measuring hunger said in March - linked in one of myriad other places you’ve dropped your unsourced claims - the entire population of Gaza is facing famine.

Consequently, it’s not being misused, except by you. Check the dictionary, check Wikipedia, check the IPC website.

Now, I can offer you leeway and say a famine hasn’t been declared, and it probably never will. Reason? Deaths of 2 per 10,000 people per day by malnutrition need to be recorded.  Deaths are recorded at medical facilities in Gaza, and the last time I checked, only 1/3 were operating, and weren’t operating anywhere near full capacity.
I'm staying neutral on this one, but I want to stress that bureaucrats don't decide what words mean.

Most people do seem to think of "famine" as a discrete catastrophic event, like a crop failure or the siege of Leningrad (where you don't get aid trucks at all), not just ongoing "hunger". International organizations say whatever gets them more funding.
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hector13

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2454 on: June 05, 2024, 04:28:31 pm »

There are probably better things to get very, very, very annoyed about.

Famine is a widespread shortage of food. The international organization whose raison d’etre is measuring hunger said in March - linked in one of myriad other places you’ve dropped your unsourced claims - the entire population of Gaza is facing famine.

Consequently, it’s not being misused, except by you. Check the dictionary, check Wikipedia, check the IPC website.

Now, I can offer you leeway and say a famine hasn’t been declared, and it probably never will. Reason? Deaths of 2 per 10,000 people per day by malnutrition need to be recorded.  Deaths are recorded at medical facilities in Gaza, and the last time I checked, only 1/3 were operating, and weren’t operating anywhere near full capacity.
I'm staying neutral on this one, but I want to stress that bureaucrats don't decide what words mean.

Most people do seem to think of "famine" as a discrete catastrophic event, like a crop failure or the siege of Leningrad (where you don't get aid trucks at all), not just ongoing "hunger". International organizations say whatever gets them more funding.

Strongpoint doesn’t get to decide what words mean either. You can point to examples of catastrophic famines in history if you want, and he can outline whatever his “during famine” rant was all about, but it doesn’t change what the word famine means: widespread shortages of food.

Sure, the short-term effects of that are going to look different from the long-term effects, but, again, it doesn’t change what the word means.

That’s why I brought up the definition: so my position on famine is clear, whether he wants to engage with it or not. I don’t think he’s ever been particularly interested in having a discussion given his chronic inability to cite sources for his claims, but it’s a (relatively) public forum, other people might want to chip in.
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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2455 on: June 05, 2024, 05:24:16 pm »

it doesn’t change what the word famine means: widespread shortages of food.
I just think there's more nuance! "Widespread shortages of food" could be said to be the general state of the Soviet Union for most of its existence, but we still think of the Holodomor (and several other specific discrete periods) as a "famine".

I wouldn't exactly call myself a descriptivist per se, but very often, dictionary definitions fail to capture the nuance in how a word is actually used, you know? I think most people would agree that a famine should be a little more... "a measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny, and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine."

I originally thought that was what Strongpoint might be getting at, but I'm not trying to speak for him in any case, so it's kind of irrelevant and there's no need to respond to it; still, I thought it would be worth trying to explain what I mean better.
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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2456 on: June 05, 2024, 07:12:45 pm »

There are other words to provide the nuance that famine doesn’t. All famine describes is the lack of food, you can be undernourished in the early stages and that can progress through various degrees of malnourishment until starvation, which covers the more obvious symptoms of famine.

I’ll still fight the corner that famine means widespread lack of food, but I’ll concede that people literally use words wrong and that can spread like some memetic horror.
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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2457 on: June 06, 2024, 12:37:30 am »

From 3 weeks ago: Israeli protesters attack Gaza-bound food trucks and there are plenty of vids out there. There are Israeli civilians going into areas Israeli civilians are not legally allowed to go, bringing their kids and picnic supplies along, to stop the trucks... There were better vids in podcaster interviews, but wikipedia's digest is good:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

I'd assume there are no food reserves left in any of the areas where Gazans produced or stored food. People have what they are carrying or what they get from aid. And if the Israeli citizens are so willing to stop the trucks, why would the Israeli military stop them?
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There is something to be said about, if the stakes are as high, maybe reconsider your certitudes. One has to be aggressively allistic to feel entitled to be able to trust. But it won't happen to me, my bit doesn't count etc etc... Just saying, after my recent experiences I couldn't trust the public if I wanted to. People got their risk assessment neurons rotten and replaced with game theory. Folks walk around like fat turkeys taunting the world to slaughter them.

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2458 on: June 10, 2024, 03:41:25 am »

https://www.actionagainsthunger.org/the-hunger-crisis/world-hunger-facts/what-is-famine/

Well, how organizations that fight famine define it? Note that it is one of the organizations that keeps saying about imminent famine in Gaza since October so this is what they actually mean.


So no, famine does mean extreme lack of food that leads to numerous deaths not any lack of food like wordtwisters try to present.

It is what is meant when people spread the lie about imminent famine but when questioned - they conveniently change the definition.

My favorite part here is "Evidence for all three criteria (food consumption, acute malnutrition, and mortality) is required to classify Famine."


Give me evidence of acute malnutrition and hunger-caused mortality in Gaza. That is all I ask.
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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #2459 on: June 10, 2024, 10:28:36 am »

https://www.actionagainsthunger.org/the-hunger-crisis/world-hunger-facts/what-is-famine/

Well, how organizations that fight famine define it? Note that it is one of the organizations that keeps saying about imminent famine in Gaza since October so this is what they actually mean.


So no, famine does mean extreme lack of food that leads to numerous deaths not any lack of food like wordtwisters try to present.

It is what is meant when people spread the lie about imminent famine but when questioned - they conveniently change the definition.

My favorite part here is "Evidence for all three criteria (food consumption, acute malnutrition, and mortality) is required to classify Famine."


Give me evidence of acute malnutrition and hunger-caused mortality in Gaza. That is all I ask.

Are you taking the piss? You demand evidence without providing your own for your “During Famine” speech.

Famine is a lack of food. That’s not changing the definition. The other criteria that go into declaring famine are a consequence of a lack of food, wouldn’t you agree?

Anyway:

Food consumption

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68239320

People don’t grind up animal feed or dig for dirty water to give to their children when easier means of feeding and watering themselves are available.

Acute malnutrition

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/unicef-finds-90-gazan-children-lack-food-needed-proper-growth-2024-06-06/

Quote
[UNICEF] said that five sets of data collected between December 2023 and April 2024 had found that 9 out of 10 children in the Gaza Strip, which has been pounded by an Israeli offensive since last October, are suffering from severe food poverty, meaning that they are surviving on two or fewer food groups per day.

For reference, it’s recommended they get five of eight different food groups for proper nourishment.

Mortality

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68471572

Quote
Dr Tedros reported "severe levels of malnutrition, children dying of starvation, serious shortages of fuel, food and medical supplies, hospital buildings destroyed" in northern Gaza, where an estimated 300,000 people are living with little food or clean water.

"The lack of food resulted in the deaths of 10 children," he posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Children dying of starvation, according to WHO.

The world’s most morbid bingo. Note the articles about food consumption and mortality are from months ago. Do you think the situation has improved since then?

So yeah, the stuff above is why they say it’s imminent, by their definition.

Oh, I forgot to mention that 100% of households in Gaza are considered to be in at least Phase 3 of the picture you posted, and 50% were projected to be in Phase 5 by July 15th.

Your turn, evidence for all the points you made, preferably from reputable sources.
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