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[Rolepgeek]

Mass civilian casualties are the consequence of all forms of warfare. We in the modern era simply believe we should be exempt from this, because we're conceited.

Not ceremonial warfare. Flower wars had some very specific rules, as does Football, MMA and Rugby.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

I love Russia. I am absolutely sure that the next generation of Russians will be pacifists

[Sergarr]

but pacifists are war enablers because they defund militaries of progressive countries and open them to attacks from barbaric ones

[Loud Whispers]

but pacifists are war enablers because they defund militaries of progressive countries and open them to attacks from barbaric ones

I know people who oppose fighting ISIS because killing is bad

It pains me

[Guardian G.I.]

Well, my current pessimistic expectations are that, within the next year or two, we're going to have direct clashes between Syrian government forces & Russian air support vs FSA & USA spec ops with Coalition air support, which will quite probably result in a declaration and an attempt to enforce a no-fly zone over the entirety of Syria, which is almost immediately followed by a direct confrontation between Russian and Coalition air forces, potentially starting off a conventional phase of a WW3.

Syria isn't important enough, a war between Russia and the US could only start under those circumstances if both sides wanted it (or one side really wanted it). Even if the US military shot down a Russian plane in broad daylight, one of the governments would need to be willing to declare war for anything to come of it, and I think that's extremely unlikely.

Sticking to the anti-Assad stance is more a matter of embarrassment for the US, and in that respect Russia is on track to inflict a minor humiliation out of this. Assad just happened to be on the US government's shitlist for harboring anti-Israel terrorists, him gassing civilians and committing other atrocities would be forgotten very quickly if he does end up pulling through this.

 
The thing is, if Putin decides to concede an American attack on Russian military forces, it'll be political suicide for him. This isn't comparable with Turkey shooting down one Russian fighter at the border - that was a minor border incident. No one among anti-Western political forces and their supporters will ever forgive conceding a deliberate attack by the United States - he'll lose a very big chunk of his popular support. So I think a war between Russians and Americans in Syria can only result in one thing - further escalation.

And to make things worse, the most likely next American president has always been itching for a fight against Russia in Syria. Looks like the next 4 years will be incredibly !!fun!!

[Loud Whispers]

Putin could not afford an escalation with the USA with NATO troops on his border, there is only so much you can do before nuclear is the option

[Sergarr]

Putin could not afford an escalation with the USA with NATO troops on his border, there is only so much you can do before nuclear is the option

Well, Russian strategy relies on first-strike nuclear being an option only in case of overwhelming conventional defeat with imminent major territorial losses (i.e. Koenigsberg gets occupied by polacks), and there's quite a lot of hot military-on-military action possible to do before that.

[WealthyRadish]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Well, my current pessimistic expectations are that, within the next year or two, we're going to have direct clashes between Syrian government forces & Russian air support vs FSA & USA spec ops with Coalition air support, which will quite probably result in a declaration and an attempt to enforce a no-fly zone over the entirety of Syria, which is almost immediately followed by a direct confrontation between Russian and Coalition air forces, potentially starting off a conventional phase of a WW3.

Syria isn't important enough, a war between Russia and the US could only start under those circumstances if both sides wanted it (or one side really wanted it). Even if the US military shot down a Russian plane in broad daylight, one of the governments would need to be willing to declare war for anything to come of it, and I think that's extremely unlikely.

Sticking to the anti-Assad stance is more a matter of embarrassment for the US, and in that respect Russia is on track to inflict a minor humiliation out of this. Assad just happened to be on the US government's shitlist for harboring anti-Israel terrorists, him gassing civilians and committing other atrocities would be forgotten very quickly if he does end up pulling through this.

 
The thing is, if Putin decides to concede an American attack on Russian military forces, it'll be political suicide for him. This isn't comparable with Turkey shooting down one Russian fighter at the border - that was a minor border incident. No one among anti-Western political forces and their supporters will ever forgive conceding a deliberate attack by the United States - he'll lose a very big chunk of his popular support. So I think a war between Russians and Americans in Syria can only result in one thing - further escalation.

And to make things worse, the most likely next American president has always been itching for a fight against Russia in Syria. Looks like the next 4 years will be incredibly !!fun!!

I'm not sure. There's political suicide, and then there's literal suicide.

My impression (as an outsider) is that Putin's popularity is mostly genuine and widespread, and that he is a talented politician and manipulator of the media. Together with the government's considerable influence over the media, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to be able to at least mitigate the effects of this extreme hypothetical scenario, or  even turn it into a political benefit.

If this were to happen (the US military shooting down a Russian plane), the US government would almost certainly wish for immediate deescalation, maybe even call it a mistake or error. So it'd be on Putin to escalate it, and he could choose exactly how far it goes; it could mean war, it could mean every dramatic step possible without war, or just a general heightening of anti-American sentiment and propaganda. I think he could easily survive any of these lesser cases without having to resort to open war.

[redwallzyl]

the idiots rejected it!


http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/10/02/496299856/colombians-go-to-the-polls-with-one-question-in-mind-war-or-peace

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Welp, time for total war.

[WealthyRadish]

"Everyone makes mistakes," FARC commander Iván Márquez told relatives of the victims.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

If any of you out there are burgeoning PR experts with a side-interest in Marxist rhetoric...

[Culise]

the idiots rejected it!


http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/10/02/496299856/colombians-go-to-the-polls-with-one-question-in-mind-war-or-peace

I won't call them idiots, but I do regret that vengeance took precedence over peace.  On the other hand, though, while the general amnesty and "alternate punishment" agreement was an important precondition to FARC accepting peace (why should they otherwise turn over their arms and quietly accept being hung or shot?), I can see why those who have been hurt by FARC over the last 52 years of ceaseless conflict would see it as a way for them to escape justice instead. 

[smjjames]

the idiots rejected it!


http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/10/02/496299856/colombians-go-to-the-polls-with-one-question-in-mind-war-or-peace

I won't call them idiots, but I do regret that vengeance took precedence over peace.  On the other hand, though, while the general amnesty and "alternate punishment" agreement was an important precondition to FARC accepting peace (why should they otherwise turn over their arms and quietly accept being hung or shot?), I can see why those who have been hurt by FARC over the last 52 years of ceaseless conflict would see it as a way for them to escape justice instead. 

Kind of sounded like the FARC guys, or at least some of them, really wanted to stop fighting or something. Though I get it with the people wanting them to go to trial for their war crimes and not escape prision. And apparently rising taxes...

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Cold War's over, FARC are not exactly rich with powerful allies.