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[hector13]

What makes you think he's not tunneling?

[Megggas]

I think this is the post that ATH meant to link to.

Did you mean Megas is backtracking or that I, hector, was backtracking? Also which one of us was making suspicious posts?

yes that was the post and i was talking about meggas not you hector I'm currently talking about meggas suspicious post right now also
Extension

Which part am I backtracking on?  Am I backtracking in that post, or have I later backtracked from that post?

So analyzing this:
Tomasque/Shakerag - Doesn't appear very town-like, but this player slot has had some inactivity.
NJW2000 - Has only had one (valid) voting target the whole game so far. 
ATH - Most variety of targets D1.  I'm inclined to lean town toward him, despite all that happened D1.
Megggas - Pretty much right in the median.
Hector13 - In the median D1, but has ramped up the # of targets D2.  Possibly town, but seems on-the-ball enough to be clever scum.
Tolyk - In the median, but should possibly be experienced enough to be doing a bit better.  But Tolyk is flaky, so could all just be a null tell.
4maskedwolf/OSG - Doesn't appear very town-like, but 4masked replaced out and has been rather inactive as of late across games.  Possibly null, but might be slightly leaning scum.
TDS - In the median.  Also has a bit more experience, so could be hanging back.  Null to slightly scummy.


NJW2000:  Why did you stop voting for Hector13 late-ish in D1 only to re-vote him D2?

Megggas:  Why did you end D1 without having a vote on anyone?

Still re-reading; more to come.

I was hoping for an extend at the time and I wasn't fully convinced that Roo or ATH was scum.  I was trying to make sense of Roo's behavior.  I also didn't know who else to vote for by that point. 

What do you mean when you say "TolyK is flaky"?  What is your opinion on the lack of a NK on N1?  Do you think a jailkeeper got involved?  If so, what's your opinion on the suggestion of the jailkeeper revealing himself and his target so that we can lynch his target?  Good idea, bad idea?

So much to do and so little time... eh. Answering stuff concerning me now, also Extend.

So, I was reading through, when...

***
3.  The scum decided not to kill anyone for some reason.  This would be bad play since this is counter to their win condition, so I don't think that's what happened.
***

#3. This is actually really clever. Given the assumption of "scum kill every night", that logically means a failed kill is due to a protection or the mafia being blocked. The first is ~5 times less likely to be true, so by this logic whoever the RB targeted is scum. However, scum don't have to kill every night, which is where the fun part is: By not killing, they're effectively framing the person who was jailed. So unfortunately the "jailkeeper stopped two kills" by D3 doesn't work for finding the mafia, because of possible shenanigans of framing. So my suggestion is for the JK to keep quiet for now, and act almost as though they know nothing (to lower the chances of getting killed on a hunch). Possibly, hinting in your posts or main target or whatnot (in case you die). What do you folks think?

TolyK refers to the scum's possible choice of not killing anyone as being "really clever" and "fun."  That choice of words is kind of suspicious.  It sounds like he's thinking with a scum mindset.

At that moment, yes, I was thinking from the point of view of the scum. For one, it's fun trying to break stuff and think of gambits (even in a BM). For two, exploring all possible moves is a way to "solve" a game. Thinking "what would I do as scum" is completely logical, as long as it doesn't lead to continuous WIFOM.
Err. So, what I'm saying is, I'm trying to enjoy myself and also win?

However, I agree that the wording is light-hearted and thus suspicious in such a dark setting.

Everyone else:  Who do you think is the most scummy person right now?

ATH is still setting off alarm bells, NJW had a WIFOM-strike against him, Roo is dead, 4masked is missing...

Request prod on 4masked.

... Megggas has posted good content (both summaries and own content), hector is... eh, no real read that I can remember.

PPE:

Why is finding the jailor so important?

if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.

Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.

TolyK posted his reads and his top scum pick was ATH.  So, if he thought ATH was scum, then he wouldn't believe anything he said as cop, right?  Yet, if you look back at that list of people that he listed reads on, there's someone missing.  Tomasque, the person that ATH supposedly cleared.  The fact that Tomasque was excluded from this list is suspicious.  It's as if TolyK no longer considered Tomasque as a candidate for being scum since ATH cleared him, but this doesn't make any sense if TolyK didn't believe that ATH was the cop.

TolyK, why did you not include Tomasque in your reads?

Uh, no. ATH is indeed my top scum pick, however I had no read on Tomasque (indeed, I nearly forgot who ATH said he inspected), which is why I didn't mention him. I was never asked a "full list of reads", just who I thought was scum. Mentioned a few townie-feelings as well.
I didn't include Tomasque and TDS. Both have posted relatively little, at least little of which came to mind. Shakerag is likely to be better in that regard. 

1. Hmm.  Okay.  I'm curious, have you ever been scum in a previous game of mafia?
2. Crud, I totally forgot about TDS Alright.  Since you believe that ATH is scum, do you think there is any significance to the fact that he cleared Tomasque in particular?  Assuming that ATH is scum masquerading as the cop, what do you think of his actions this game?  Do you think he's just a horribly newby scum making slip after slip or smarter than he seems?
Unvote.

More responses coming soon eventually.

[origamiscienceguy]

What makes you think he's not tunneling?

The fact that every vanilla townie has only one weapon, a vote. And just because he uses his vote on you does not warrant an all-out attempt to undermine their only power. You are reacting in the completely wrong way to someone voting for you. You should be making arguments to counter his own rather than flailing around random scum-tells to a completely townie action.

Hector13

[TolyK]

***

Well, excuse me for having a non-static opinion. My suspicion of him has waned a bit, but we should still lynch him.
Finding scum is better, of course, than confirming a townie, but confirming a good townie is better than confirming a lackluster one. Finding scum isn't a 100% thing, while confirming a townie is (otherwise... they're scum?). Meanwhile, if Megggas is scum, that means he's unsuspicious scum, currently, and that's obviously the worst kind.

So you've gone to 50% sure he's cop? 1 in 2?
  Because that means you think he is at most 50% likely to be mafia? Do you think he could be town at all? Because if you think he could be fakeclaiming to protect the cop from nightkilling or something, as town, then you're saying you want to lynch a potentially valuable player. And a randomlynch from your PoV would have a 2/7 or roughly 30% chance of getting mafia, while lynching ATH would have substantially less than 50%.

 Were these figures near exact? How could ATH be better than a random lynch, if the 50/50 thing stands? Is the added <20% chance of catching scum worth the 50% chance of killing the jailor instead?

:I
When I give a gut feeling of percentages, they are exactly that - a gut feeling. I'm practically sure ATH isn't the jailer (fakeclaiming cop as the jailer?!) and I'm sure enough he isn't the cop that I feel totally fine voting him. If he turns out to be lying scum, like I'm expecting - great. If he turns out to be a townie with no power role - eh, but scum still don't know the power roles, plus a player who is (was) causing confusion is eliminated.

***

Tolyk if you think I'm scum vote me try and pressure me also take into account i inspected shakerag (tomasque)night 1 and said my inspection results were town/not mafia do you believe that why or why not?
Second why do you think I'm scum and who could i be working with?

Everyone:do you agree with TolyK? Why or why not? If not say who you think is scum and why.

Zeroth off, I am voting for you, already, if you haven't noticed.
Firstly, your result on Tomasque/Shakerag means very little - it's easy for scum to confirm someone as town, since they know who it is, plus it's very likely he's not your partner (another possible gambit, of course, but it seems over-the-top). If you end up being a cop, like you say, that leaves a confirmed townie who is now active, so the loss isn't that bad, considering why we should lynch you: changing your inspect claim right after you have reasons on the initial claim (emphasis important), you have been posting confusing content since nearly the start of day one (claiming rolecop, then cop). There have also been several posts which slightly increased my view of you as scum, though I won't link them as I'm on phone (they're ones that I quoted before and said I have problems with the content).

I do not know who you could be working with, as your interactions have been mostly centered on yourself and your claim. You haven't been scumhunting, only asking people whether they believe you or not. That's actually a good scum move, in that your partner is safe in case you get lynched.

That last question to everyone is a prime example: You want to know what other people think, not asking questions with respect to players other than the ones doubting you, and then getting semi-legitimate reasons for voting for someone so that you could later say you were scumhunting. It feels lazy and like "crowdfunding" for your own cases.

So. In the off chance I wasn't voting you already, ATH.

PFP.

PPE: Ninjas!

1. Hmm.  Okay.  I'm curious, have you ever been scum in a previous game of mafia?
2. Crud, I totally forgot about TDS Alright.  Since you believe that ATH is scum, do you think there is any significance to the fact that he cleared Tomasque in particular?  Assuming that ATH is scum masquerading as the cop, what do you think of his actions this game?  Do you think he's just a horribly newby scum making slip after slip or smarter than he seems?
Unvote.

More responses coming soon eventually.

1. I have, see my sig for a link to my mafia stats.
2. As noted above, not really. It's about as likely he's town as a person who wasn't inspected, I think, because though it's likely Tomasque is just a random townie, I wouldn't say ATH wouldn't pick his buddy (you know, in case there was a real cop and he decided to check Tomasque out first thing).
I think he's playing very well for a scum player - he's managed to curb suspicion from a number of players, which could be help from Jack (WP, in that case), but his other posts constantly give little slips.

Now I really gotta leave. Crap.

[Megggas]

Tolyk if you think I'm scum vote me try and pressure me also take into account i inspected shakerag (tomasque)night 1 and said my inspection results were town/not mafia do you believe that why or why not?
Second why do you think I'm scum and who could i be working with?

Everyone:do you agree with TolyK? Why or why not? If not say who you think is scum and why.

I don't agree with TolyK.  I think the evidence he specified against you points more toward you being a bad town player then a good scum player.   If you're scum, it doesn't make much sense for you to draw additional suspicion by haphazardly going back and forth on your investigation results, especially all within a span of about 28 minutes.  And to settle on confirming Tomasque of all people.  It would have made more sense to "confirm" someone who already seemed pretty townie rather than someone who wasn't contributing much and could serve as a potential lynch target that the scum could exploit.  No, I find it easier to believe that fillipk noticed when you said you didn't get your PM and contacted you soon afterward to explain the situation and give you your investigation results.  Considering how often you mix up people's names, arguments, and votes, I think your "investigated hector13" slip up was a genuine mistake.

As for who I think is scum...ugh.  At the moment I have suspicions about nearly everybody and need to sort them out. 

NJW2000's Day 1 play was suspicious and his Day 2 play isn't much better.  Some of his interactions with me seemed like subtle attempts to befriend me.  He still seems defensive.  He took offensive action against hector13, but I think most of his arguments against hector13 are insufficient and illogical.  It seems like he's deliberately trying to push at hector13 as much as possible.

Hector13 seems to have gotten too emotionally invested in his arguments with NJW2000.  He's gotten a bit too defensive and has went overboard with his analysis of NJW2000.  I can sense that he's clearly annoyed.  His remark about ATH being certain to die tonight also seems poorly thought out.

origamiscienceguy hasn't inspired much confidence yet.  He made a "Lynch all liars!!1!" vote on ATH without realizing he skipped several pages worth of posts.  His reason for voting hector13 seems wrong and superficial.  It's as if he completely missed most of the conversation between them.

TolyK is hard for me to get a good read on.  He responds to questions and does a little scum hunting here and there, but he doesn't seem to have much initiative.  A lot of what he says is just informational.  He would have been a great IC though.

TheDarkStar is barely here, which makes him suspicious by default.  However, he threw some questions back at several people in his last post, which improves my opinion of him slightly.

Tomasque/Shakerag has been cleared by ATH.  I found Tomasque's behavior during Day 1 suspicious, but Shakerag just got here and he's already providing useful content and metrics.  Even if ATH ends up being a fraud, I'm inclined to believe Shakerag is town.

[Megggas]

I'm going to bed now.  I'll decide who to vote sometime after I wake up.  It looks like hector13 and NJW2000 both have 2 votes each at the moment, so one of them is probably getting lynched unless something changes.  For now, I'll leave everyone with a question.

Everyone:  In the event that we screw up today's lynch, someone dies tonight, and ATH survives to Day 3, what do you think we should do?  We'll be at MYLO in that situation.  I'm a bit worried about the possibility of the scum allowing ATH to survive for the sake of turning us against him.  Personally, regardless of who ATH claimed to investigate, I would vote for a no-lynch and let the scum kill 1 more person to narrow down our suspects and potentially refine ATH's investigation results.  Then on Day 4, we'll hopefully have enough information to discern for sure who the scum are.

[Megggas]

Meh, everyone ignore my last question.  I can only see our answers being used by the scum for WIFOM purposes.  We'll talk about it when we get there.  Good night.

[hector13]

What makes you think he's not tunneling?

The fact that every vanilla townie has only one weapon, a vote. And just because he uses his vote on you does not warrant an all-out attempt to undermine their only power. You are reacting in the completely wrong way to someone voting for you. You should be making arguments to counter his own rather than flailing around random scum-tells to a completely townie action.

Hector13

A rather townie action? Did you actually read the interaction between NJW and Hector? There are pages of me making counterarguments to NJW.

This post, for example. Pretty much every single thing he says in this post is "Yeah, but..." because none of my defense conforms to his theory that I'm scum. In other words, he basically ignored everything I said. He has no interest whatsoever in considering that I might be town.

You're not making yourself look good, byraway. There's a significant number of posts about NJW being convinced I'm scum, starting here. I don't get annoyed with him until about here, more than two RL days and about 15 posts (each) later, after he's repeated his theory a number of times with no evidence.

Could you summarise for everyone why you're voting me?

Everyone:  In the event that we screw up today's lynch, someone dies tonight, and ATH survives to Day 3, what do you think we should do?  We'll be at MYLO in that situation.  I'm a bit worried about the possibility of the scum allowing ATH to survive for the sake of turning us against him.  Personally, regardless of who ATH claimed to investigate, I would vote for a no-lynch and let the scum kill 1 more person to narrow down our suspects and potentially refine ATH's investigation results.  Then on Day 4, we'll hopefully have enough information to discern for sure who the scum are.

I would say we're probably better with a no lynch. D1 and D2 we've had a great deal of focus on two players so our reads aren't all that great on everyone else. At least that gives us at least 6 RL days as well as maybe two weekends, to scumhunt players we're not sure about.

[origamiscienceguy]

I have looked at the argument between you and him. I don't see any side making any lasting convincing arguments to me. The reason I am voting for you is for when you tried to get me to jump on the wagon with you. It makes you seem desperate. Which is not what an experienced townie would do. (I've played a few games with you, so I know that you have experience)

[Megggas]

I have looked at the argument between you and him. I don't see any side making any lasting convincing arguments to me. The reason I am voting for you is for when you tried to get me to jump on the wagon with you. It makes you seem desperate. Which is not what an experienced townie would do. (I've played a few games with you, so I know that you have experience)

Hm, that is an interesting point.  What's your opinion on the Day 1 play of hector13?  If hector13 is scum, who do you think might be his partner?  You said that hector13 was throwing about random scumtells rather actual arguments against NJW2000.  Could you give some specific examples of this?

Tolyk if you think I'm scum vote me try and pressure me also take into account i inspected shakerag (tomasque)night 1 and said my inspection results were town/not mafia do you believe that why or why not?
Second why do you think I'm scum and who could i be working with?

Everyone:do you agree with TolyK? Why or why not? If not say who you think is scum and why.

I do not believe you because you have given two different "results" for your inspectioning. I am not sure that you are scum, but as of now, you are the scummiest person to me.

Ah come on, the scum are going to kill him overnight anyway. No way they let the only person to claim cop live two consecutive nights! You'd be better getting rid of NJW today, he's way more scummy.

Hector13, why were you trying to encourage origamiscienceguy to vote with you?  At the time, NJW2000 had 2 votes, while you and ATH had only 1 vote each.  Origamiscienceguy had already unvoted ATH earlier and only placed a FOS against him.

[Shakerag]

Megggas:

Tomasque/Shakerag has been cleared by ATH.  I found Tomasque's behavior during Day 1 suspicious, but Shakerag just got here and he's already providing useful content and metrics.  Even if ATH ends up being a fraud, I'm inclined to believe Shakerag is town.

[It is worth noting that notquitethere provides the same kind of metrics even when he's scum.  Remember it is scum's goal to be indistinguishable from town.]



Extend.  Still re-reading and analyzing.  Could stand to use the extra time.

[Shakerag]

Megggas:

So analyzing this:
Tomasque/Shakerag - Doesn't appear very town-like, but this player slot has had some inactivity.
NJW2000 - Has only had one (valid) voting target the whole game so far. 
ATH - Most variety of targets D1.  I'm inclined to lean town toward him, despite all that happened D1.
Megggas - Pretty much right in the median.
Hector13 - In the median D1, but has ramped up the # of targets D2.  Possibly town, but seems on-the-ball enough to be clever scum.
Tolyk - In the median, but should possibly be experienced enough to be doing a bit better.  But Tolyk is flaky, so could all just be a null tell.
4maskedwolf/OSG - Doesn't appear very town-like, but 4masked replaced out and has been rather inactive as of late across games.  Possibly null, but might be slightly leaning scum.
TDS - In the median.  Also has a bit more experience, so could be hanging back.  Null to slightly scummy.


NJW2000:  Why did you stop voting for Hector13 late-ish in D1 only to re-vote him D2?

Megggas:  Why did you end D1 without having a vote on anyone?

Still re-reading; more to come.

I was hoping for an extend at the time and I wasn't fully convinced that Roo or ATH was scum.  I was trying to make sense of Roo's behavior.  I also didn't know who else to vote for by that point. 

What do you mean when you say "TolyK is flaky"?  What is your opinion on the lack of a NK on N1?  Do you think a jailkeeper got involved?  If so, what's your opinion on the suggestion of the jailkeeper revealing himself and his target so that we can lynch his target?  Good idea, bad idea?

TolyK ... can be hard to get a read on.  And despite being a veteran player he can still manage to get lynched D1  >_>

I strongly think a jailkeeper got involved.  The odds of the scumteam not submitting a kill are very low, and the scum IC would be there to heavily discourage such an action.  Hell even in non-beginner's games you almost never see the scumteam skipping an NK. 

Generally I think it's a bad idea for the jailkeeper to claim until they have consistent results.  So D3 or D4 for a claim from the jailkeeper, assuming they've actually prevented one or more NKs.  If the jailkeeper claims D2 after no NK N1, you could be lynching the scumteam's NK target and now they know who the jailkeeper is as well.

[Megggas]

Extend
I'm alright with giving Shakerag the extra time for more analysis.

[NJW2000]

Erm, extend, then, no reason not to let people have time to post/ get reads.

[NJW2000]

Not posting much as schulwerk stepped up tonight, poss more though.