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[hector13]

You missed Tolyk in the "both scum won't pursue the same target" thing, I think he should be added to the second group.

I'd also take the (non)RVS vote analysis with a pinch of salt. I'm not sure the newer players know the value of a pressure vote yet; it's certainly not something I used much on D1 (or whenever I've played in general) but was more inclined to try on D2, hence more voting.

I don't like throwing my vote around too much, 'cause at some point down the line it'll land on scum but they won't be bothered too much because they know I'm going to move the vote eventually if I've been moving it around all game long.

Then again, I'm still in the "not quite new but still inexperienced" camp so... yeah.

[TolyK]

So much to do and so little time... eh. Answering stuff concerning me now, also Extend.

So, I was reading through, when...

***
3.  The scum decided not to kill anyone for some reason.  This would be bad play since this is counter to their win condition, so I don't think that's what happened.
***

#3. This is actually really clever. Given the assumption of "scum kill every night", that logically means a failed kill is due to a protection or the mafia being blocked. The first is ~5 times less likely to be true, so by this logic whoever the RB targeted is scum. However, scum don't have to kill every night, which is where the fun part is: By not killing, they're effectively framing the person who was jailed. So unfortunately the "jailkeeper stopped two kills" by D3 doesn't work for finding the mafia, because of possible shenanigans of framing. So my suggestion is for the JK to keep quiet for now, and act almost as though they know nothing (to lower the chances of getting killed on a hunch). Possibly, hinting in your posts or main target or whatnot (in case you die). What do you folks think?

TolyK refers to the scum's possible choice of not killing anyone as being "really clever" and "fun."  That choice of words is kind of suspicious.  It sounds like he's thinking with a scum mindset.

At that moment, yes, I was thinking from the point of view of the scum. For one, it's fun trying to break stuff and think of gambits (even in a BM). For two, exploring all possible moves is a way to "solve" a game. Thinking "what would I do as scum" is completely logical, as long as it doesn't lead to continuous WIFOM.
Err. So, what I'm saying is, I'm trying to enjoy myself and also win?

However, I agree that the wording is light-hearted and thus suspicious in such a dark setting.

Everyone else:  Who do you think is the most scummy person right now?

ATH is still setting off alarm bells, NJW had a WIFOM-strike against him, Roo is dead, 4masked is missing...

Request prod on 4masked.

... Megggas has posted good content (both summaries and own content), hector is... eh, no real read that I can remember.

PPE:

Why is finding the jailor so important?

if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.

Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.

TolyK posted his reads and his top scum pick was ATH.  So, if he thought ATH was scum, then he wouldn't believe anything he said as cop, right?  Yet, if you look back at that list of people that he listed reads on, there's someone missing.  Tomasque, the person that ATH supposedly cleared.  The fact that Tomasque was excluded from this list is suspicious.  It's as if TolyK no longer considered Tomasque as a candidate for being scum since ATH cleared him, but this doesn't make any sense if TolyK didn't believe that ATH was the cop.

TolyK, why did you not include Tomasque in your reads?

Uh, no. ATH is indeed my top scum pick, however I had no read on Tomasque (indeed, I nearly forgot who ATH said he inspected), which is why I didn't mention him. I was never asked a "full list of reads", just who I thought was scum. Mentioned a few townie-feelings as well.
I didn't include Tomasque and TDS. Both have posted relatively little, at least little of which came to mind. Shakerag is likely to be better in that regard. 

Tolyk is flaky

Hey!
Well...
My shoddy activity is mostly due to unexpected midterms. Yes, they announced them a week before for several subjects. ;_;

[NJW2000]

Here, Tolyk!

You said you thought ATH is scum, how does that suddenly morph into you being 50/50 on him being cop?

Further:

5. Well... Megggas, to confirm a decent and active town player, would probably be best.

Why is confirming town better than finding scum?

Well, excuse me for having a non-static opinion. My suspicion of him has waned a bit, but we should still lynch him.
Finding scum is better, of course, than confirming a townie, but confirming a good townie is better than confirming a lackluster one. Finding scum isn't a 100% thing, while confirming a townie is (otherwise... they're scum?). Meanwhile, if Megggas is scum, that means he's unsuspicious scum, currently, and that's obviously the worst kind.

So you've gone to 50% sure he's cop? 1 in 2?
  Because that means you think he is at most 50% likely to be mafia? Do you think he could be town at all? Because if you think he could be fakeclaiming to protect the cop from nightkilling or something, as town, then you're saying you want to lynch a potentially valuable player. And a randomlynch from your PoV would have a 2/7 or roughly 30% chance of getting mafia, while lynching ATH would have substantially less than 50%.

 Were these figures near exact? How could ATH be better than a random lynch, if the 50/50 thing stands? Is the added <20% chance of catching scum worth the 50% chance of killing the jailor instead?

[NJW2000]

Snipped because super large.

Well, due to some good points raised about scumhunting and self-preservation, as well as time constraints, I'm going to restrict myself to criticising less than the first half of Hector's attack on me. I would advise anyone who considers voting for me or taking these arguments into account to look through them carefully, following the footnotes and judging for themselves whether or not I really actually said or did these things, especially in the manner he claims. To work.

Spoiler: inaccuracies/lies on the part of Hector (click to show/hide)

I ask him about what he considers content^a though I forget to press him on it when he doesn't answer in his fourth post⁴ during which he asks ATH a nonsense question about being friendly, then asks Roo why he's making more sense than usual. Scum-catching gold!

So I forgot to tell you what I thought was useful in a mafia game, four posts in. It can't have been a very important question if you didn't remember it needed an answer, and anyway, why a scum would refuse to answer it I have no clue at all.
A nonsense question? ATH was not clear here, I confused two senses of the word "familiar", I think, and ATH did reply. I basically asked ATH who he was suspiscious of and what his reasons were, which he answered on. A little early, but not too cryptic a 'quisition! After that... well, it's been my second mafia, how do I know when the RVS and RQS is meant to end? I didn't feel like I had all I needed by way of info to act on, so I wanted more posting. But perhaps my early game, only just post-RVS questions weren't the best.

We have to wait until post 147 before we get his fifth post⁵, which I consider to be his first "real" post, by which I mean there is already content in the game to comment on. But wait! Amongst offering some opinions on ATH's stance on scumtells, and then getting defensive over his play in another game (apparently he has never been scum, so he has no scumtells, implying he can't possibly be scum in this game) He says we should consider ATH's cop-claim quietly to ourselves while discussing other things. Doesn't offer anything else to discuss, of course, followed by essentially asking TDS if he's gambiting then asks the other players if they have questions, without asking anything himself. This is the first time he tells is to ignore a significant aspect of the game.

I've given you my stance on the activity capabilities, I've explained why you misconstrued me earlier, I am bored of explaining my (apparently not baseless, though you attack me for saying so D2 start later) worries. Anyway, I say I'm open to questions as reading: not like you haven't asked for some. Hypocrisy here? Ohwell.

Explained away in the seventh post⁷ as trying to get us to get other players involved (funny... apparently I'm scum for doing that!) and then worries I'm FoS'ing him

Again with the misconstruing: respond to my actual argument, stop with the hype, you should be able to lynch me by rational argument not tricksy word manipulation if I'm really scum. This just makes you look dodgy. Oh, and worries? No, I was asking you, I wanted to know. In my last mafia accusation of an FOS worked well (on me) in getting someone to flare up, you've been unusually cool the whole time though. Why "worries", when I just asked and gave no evidence I was scared? Again with the rhetoric,  that's more of a scum tool, as townies don't need to manipulate.

You get the gist, read his posts fairly carefully and actually look at the posts in the footnotes - kind of him to make those, makes it tempting not to bother following the evidence up though, doesn't it? Basically, while I'm less clear, he is a bit of a bullshitter here. Read his stuff carefully and with a clear head, is all. Also, I haven;t had as much time to scumhunt, and reads take me longer than replying to questions, I prefer to get people in the moment. Oh, and I'm pretty sure there's been one or two cases where he just plain old said I did something I didn't, but he did quote everything I ever wrote, so I suppose margin of error, etc?

I'll stop this now.

Anyway, I'll try to question, though don;t have a huge amount of time atm,

Posting Derp, look above for the little questioning I just managed to do after this. Forgot to post this, need to sleep now.

[AbstractTraitorHero]

So much to do and so little time... eh. Answering stuff concerning me now, also Extend.

So, I was reading through, when...

***
3.  The scum decided not to kill anyone for some reason.  This would be bad play since this is counter to their win condition, so I don't think that's what happened.
***

#3. This is actually really clever. Given the assumption of "scum kill every night", that logically means a failed kill is due to a protection or the mafia being blocked. The first is ~5 times less likely to be true, so by this logic whoever the RB targeted is scum. However, scum don't have to kill every night, which is where the fun part is: By not killing, they're effectively framing the person who was jailed. So unfortunately the "jailkeeper stopped two kills" by D3 doesn't work for finding the mafia, because of possible shenanigans of framing. So my suggestion is for the JK to keep quiet for now, and act almost as though they know nothing (to lower the chances of getting killed on a hunch). Possibly, hinting in your posts or main target or whatnot (in case you die). What do you folks think?

TolyK refers to the scum's possible choice of not killing anyone as being "really clever" and "fun."  That choice of words is kind of suspicious.  It sounds like he's thinking with a scum mindset.

At that moment, yes, I was thinking from the point of view of the scum. For one, it's fun trying to break stuff and think of gambits (even in a BM). For two, exploring all possible moves is a way to "solve" a game. Thinking "what would I do as scum" is completely logical, as long as it doesn't lead to continuous WIFOM.
Err. So, what I'm saying is, I'm trying to enjoy myself and also win?

However, I agree that the wording is light-hearted and thus suspicious in such a dark setting.

Everyone else:  Who do you think is the most scummy person right now?

ATH is still setting off alarm bells, NJW had a WIFOM-strike against him, Roo is dead, 4masked is missing...

Request prod on 4masked.

... Megggas has posted good content (both summaries and own content), hector is... eh, no real read that I can remember.

PPE:

Why is finding the jailor so important?

if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.

Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.

TolyK posted his reads and his top scum pick was ATH.  So, if he thought ATH was scum, then he wouldn't believe anything he said as cop, right?  Yet, if you look back at that list of people that he listed reads on, there's someone missing.  Tomasque, the person that ATH supposedly cleared.  The fact that Tomasque was excluded from this list is suspicious.  It's as if TolyK no longer considered Tomasque as a candidate for being scum since ATH cleared him, but this doesn't make any sense if TolyK didn't believe that ATH was the cop.

TolyK, why did you not include Tomasque in your reads?

Uh, no. ATH is indeed my top scum pick, however I had no read on Tomasque (indeed, I nearly forgot who ATH said he inspected), which is why I didn't mention him. I was never asked a "full list of reads", just who I thought was scum. Mentioned a few townie-feelings as well.
I didn't include Tomasque and TDS. Both have posted relatively little, at least little of which came to mind. Shakerag is likely to be better in that regard. 

Tolyk is flaky

Hey!
Well...
My shoddy activity is mostly due to unexpected midterms. Yes, they announced them a week before for several subjects. ;_;

Tolyk if you think I'm scum vote me try and pressure me also take into account i inspected shakerag (tomasque)night 1 and said my inspection results were town/not mafia do you believe that why or why not?
Second why do you think I'm scum and who could i be working with?

Everyone:do you agree with TolyK? Why or why not? If not say who you think is scum and why.

[hector13]

Well NJW, I'm not trying to convince you you're scum, I'm trying to convince everyone else.

I did go overboard though with the analysis... oh well, that's your game over two posts, with some conjecture from me.

My case against NJW in a nutshell:

1. Not applying the scumtells he's applying to Hector to other players.

2. Hypocrisy. NJW is indulging in all the scumtells he's applied to Hector, namely not scumhunting properly.

3. Tunnel Vision. NJW has only actually scumhunted Hector, and is convinced Hector is scum despite having no reads on other players.

4. Active Lurking. NJW has not really taken part in the game in terms of questioning people and generating content, with the exception of the D2 interaction with Hector

5. Cherry Picking. NJW has chosen small pieces of evidence and taken them out of context in order to make Hector seem more scummy.

I urge you to vote with me and take out the scum in our midst, so we can protect our great leader Fernando!

[TheDarkStar]

Time to look over the last few pages.

Here, Tolyk!

You said you thought ATH is scum, how does that suddenly morph into you being 50/50 on him being cop?

Further:

5. Well... Megggas, to confirm a decent and active town player, would probably be best.

Why is confirming town better than finding scum?

Well, excuse me for having a non-static opinion. My suspicion of him has waned a bit, but we should still lynch him.
Finding scum is better, of course, than confirming a townie, but confirming a good townie is better than confirming a lackluster one. Finding scum isn't a 100% thing, while confirming a townie is (otherwise... they're scum?). Meanwhile, if Megggas is scum, that means he's unsuspicious scum, currently, and that's obviously the worst kind.

How can finding scum not be a "100% thing" when finding town is if those are the only two things that someone can be? What does it mean to be 100% sure that someone is town (short of a lynch, of course).

While inspecting an active player might make sense, wouldn't it make more sense to investigate an active player that you're not sure about than one you're fairly certain is town or scum?

Questions:
Question for the ICs (TheDarkStar & origamiscienceguy):  Is it generally a profitable decision for scum to fake claim to lure out a power role if it requires the fake claimer to die?  Assuming the town lynches the fake claimer and the scum NK the power role, which side came out ahead?

If it happens Day 1, it would put the teams at 6 town/1 scum. This is generally considered a bad situation.

Here, Tolyk!

You said you thought ATH is scum, how does that suddenly morph into you being 50/50 on him being cop?

Further:

5. Well... Megggas, to confirm a decent and active town player, would probably be best.

Why is confirming town better than finding scum?

Well, excuse me for having a non-static opinion. My suspicion of him has waned a bit, but we should still lynch him.
Finding scum is better, of course, than confirming a townie, but confirming a good townie is better than confirming a lackluster one. Finding scum isn't a 100% thing, while confirming a townie is (otherwise... they're scum?). Meanwhile, if Megggas is scum, that means he's unsuspicious scum, currently, and that's obviously the worst kind.

So you've gone to 50% sure he's cop? 1 in 2?
  Because that means you think he is at most 50% likely to be mafia? Do you think he could be town at all? Because if you think he could be fakeclaiming to protect the cop from nightkilling or something, as town, then you're saying you want to lynch a potentially valuable player. And a randomlynch from your PoV would have a 2/7 or roughly 30% chance of getting mafia, while lynching ATH would have substantially less than 50%.

 Were these figures near exact? How could ATH be better than a random lynch, if the 50/50 thing stands? Is the added <20% chance of catching scum worth the 50% chance of killing the jailor instead?

"50% chance of killing the jailor"? What does the jailor have to do with this?

Also, it would make sense for him to vote for ATH if he's more than 28.57% sure that he's scum because that's more than the average. Why do you think that he shouldn't vote for ATH?

Everyone:do you agree with TolyK? Why or why not? If not say who you think is scum and why.

I see why TolyK argues you're scum, but he seems a bit overexited about it - his original vote looked (and still looks) like a policy lynch.

Well NJW, I'm not trying to convince you you're scum, I'm trying to convince everyone else.

I did go overboard though with the analysis... oh well, that's your game over two posts, with some conjecture from me.

My case against NJW in a nutshell:

1. Not applying the scumtells he's applying to Hector to other players.

2. Hypocrisy. NJW is indulging in all the scumtells he's applied to Hector, namely not scumhunting properly.

3. Tunnel Vision. NJW has only actually scumhunted Hector, and is convinced Hector is scum despite having no reads on other players.

4. Active Lurking. NJW has not really taken part in the game in terms of questioning people and generating content, with the exception of the D2 interaction with Hector

5. Cherry Picking. NJW has chosen small pieces of evidence and taken them out of context in order to make Hector seem more scummy.

I urge you to vote with me and take out the scum in our midst, so we can protect our great leader Fernando!

Looking at these posts, you're making him seem worse than he is. 1. and 3. are basically the same thing while 2., 4., and 5. are all similar to each other. Can you clarify them or provide some specific quotes to go with them?

[hector13]

My case against NJW in a nutshell:

1. Not applying the scumtells he's applying to Hector to other players.

NJW only mentioned Hector as a scumread in this post.

A list of Hector's "scumtells"

Attacking the suspicious: Megas 1,2, TDS, and ATH all attacked Roo D1.

Questioning the inactives: Tomasque, Megas 1, 2, 3, Tolyk

Small questions for active but not too odd players: Megas, TDS, Tolyk.

2. Hypocrisy. NJW is indulging in all the scumtells he's applied to Hector, namely not scumhunting properly.

Attacking the suspicious: 1, 2, 3, 4

Questioning the inactives: 1 (at the bottom), 2 (not doing it, but suggesting we do it),

Small questions for active players: 1, 2 (no questions, but minor interaction), 3 (same again)

3. Tunnel Vision. NJW has only actually scumhunted Hector, and is convinced Hector is scum despite having no reads on other players.

4. Active Lurking. NJW has not really taken part in the game in terms of questioning people and generating content, with the exception of the D2 interaction with Hector

Just read through most of his D2 posts. Only ever really attacks Hector and minimally interacts with the others.

I'll do the cherry-picking part later, but his eleventh post in my D2 analysis is one I know I would have pointed at.

Some links may not point where they should, in a bit of a hurry, but if there are issues, let me know and I'll fix them later.

[origamiscienceguy]

Tolyk if you think I'm scum vote me try and pressure me also take into account i inspected shakerag (tomasque)night 1 and said my inspection results were town/not mafia do you believe that why or why not?
Second why do you think I'm scum and who could i be working with?

Everyone:do you agree with TolyK? Why or why not? If not say who you think is scum and why.

I do not believe you because you have given two different "results" for your inspectioning. I am not sure that you are scum, but as of now, you are the scummiest person to me.

[hector13]

Tolyk if you think I'm scum vote me try and pressure me also take into account i inspected shakerag (tomasque)night 1 and said my inspection results were town/not mafia do you believe that why or why not?
Second why do you think I'm scum and who could i be working with?

Everyone:do you agree with TolyK? Why or why not? If not say who you think is scum and why.

I do not believe you because you have given two different "results" for your inspectioning. I am not sure that you are scum, but as of now, you are the scummiest person to me.

Ah come on, the scum are going to kill him overnight anyway. No way they let the only person to claim cop live two consecutive nights! You'd be better getting rid of NJW today, he's way more scummy.

[origamiscienceguy]

Could you please give a list of grievances, because I did not come to that conclusion while skimming through.

[hector13]

Post #427

[origamiscienceguy]

So basically, you think he's scummy because he is only picking on you?

[hector13]

No, he's being hypocritical on top of tunneling and hasn't paid any attention to other players.

How can he possibly think someone is scum when he hasn't pressed anyone else? Balance this is not.

[origamiscienceguy]

It may seem that he is tunneling to you, but to me, it seems that he just thinks you are scum, and are counterattacking him.