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[Megggas]

Extend. 

I've been working on a summary of my reads on 4maskedwolf, NJW2000, and TolyK, but I keep getting interrupted in rl so progress is slower than I hoped.  I probably won't be able to post from a computer again until 16-18 hours from now, so I'm hoping for an extend if possible.  For now, here's some stuff I noticed as I was rereading TolyK's posts.

So, I was reading through, when...

The fact that nobody died last night and AbstractTraitorHero was able to do his investigation is rather surprising.  That means one of several things happened.
1.  The jailor blocked a scum member.
2.  The jailor protected the scum's nightkill target, which wasn't AbstractTraitorHero. 
3.  The scum decided not to kill anyone for some reason.  This would be bad play since this is counter to their win condition, so I don't think that's what happened.
4.  The scum didn't submit a target to fillipk because they were offline/inactive during Night 1.  Based on my look through everyone's profiles, this seems unlikely, but still a possibility.
5.  AbstractTraitorHero was targeted by the scum and protected by the jailor, but is lying to us about his investigation results as part of another loony gambit to try to lure out scum.  A distinct possibility given what we've seen ATH try doing on Day 1, but I hope this isn't the case.

I think #1 or #2 is what happened.  The Jailor probably targeted someone they thought seemed scummy and either they actually hit scum or hit the scum's target.  If the scum were expecting the jailor to protect ATH, then that could be why they chose a different target.  I'm leaning a bit more toward #1 since that would require only the jailor to choose the right target instead of both the scum and jailor choosing the same target.

#3. This is actually really clever. Given the assumption of "scum kill every night", that logically means a failed kill is due to a protection or the mafia being blocked. The first is ~5 times less likely to be true, so by this logic whoever the RB targeted is scum. However, scum don't have to kill every night, which is where the fun part is: By not killing, they're effectively framing the person who was jailed. So unfortunately the "jailkeeper stopped two kills" by D3 doesn't work for finding the mafia, because of possible shenanigans of framing. So my suggestion is for the JK to keep quiet for now, and act almost as though they know nothing (to lower the chances of getting killed on a hunch). Possibly, hinting in your posts or main target or whatnot (in case you die). What do you folks think?

TolyK refers to the scum's possible choice of not killing anyone as being "really clever" and "fun."  That choice of words is kind of suspicious.  It sounds like he's thinking with a scum mindset.

Everyone else:  Who do you think is the most scummy person right now?

ATH is still setting off alarm bells, NJW had a WIFOM-strike against him, Roo is dead, 4masked is missing...

Request prod on 4masked.

... Megggas has posted good content (both summaries and own content), hector is... eh, no real read that I can remember.

PPE:

Why is finding the jailor so important?

if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.

Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.

TolyK posted his reads and his top scum pick was ATH.  So, if he thought ATH was scum, then he wouldn't believe anything he said as cop, right?  Yet, if you look back at that list of people that he listed reads on, there's someone missing.  Tomasque, the person that ATH supposedly cleared.  The fact that Tomasque was excluded from this list is suspicious.  It's as if TolyK no longer considered Tomasque as a candidate for being scum since ATH cleared him, but this doesn't make any sense if TolyK didn't believe that ATH was the cop.

TolyK, why did you not include Tomasque in your reads?

[NJW2000]

Extend I guess as people want it, so w need more info, also Hec doesn't seem to have finished his writeup on me, I think we should wait for reads. Not posting now as no time - school.

[hector13]

You can still respond to the first bit, as can others, should they so desire. May not get round to the rest of it for a bit.

[origamiscienceguy]

Fillipk, can you change the title of the thread to say (8/9) since roo died?

also, extend I can probably do with rereading everything.

[fillipk]

Sure, also

Shakerag has replaced Tomasque and the day has been extended, the day is now over on November 11 1:30 pm pst there is one more extension available

[Shakerag]

Woop woop. 

Technically I am just a player in this game, but seeing as how I've ICed in a number of previous beginner's games, I may very well dispense nuggets of information as we go anyway. 

[This is my IC voice.  Anything I say in square brackets can be taken as completely honest even to the detriment of myself.  It is my hope that I won't need to use it as there are supposed to be two ICs in the game already, but I'll step in if I think they're dropping the ball, so to speak.  I am also constantly PFP, but I try to ensure that I get at least one substantially-sized post in per RL day.]

So, yeah, give me a few to read over the game and compile some reads.

[Shakerag]

Oh, also:

[insidejoke]
Hey Jack, how is the scumteam doing this game?
[/insidejoke]

[Jack A T]

Hey Jack, how is the scumteam doing this game?

Something something Cher.

[hector13]

D2 Post Analysis on NJW

Spoiler: Pressure ATH (click to show/hide)

Post one¹ is a continuation of trying to look town. "Oh dear, we killed a townie, I said we didn't have enough information!"

Post two ² he does actually ask a good question, with evidence for it, to ATH, though he seems to be asking for approval from others by the "unless I'm much mistaken?" part. Post three ³ is reminding ATH he can't quote GM PMs.

Nothing to say here, really. Looking active and actually scumhunting to start D2, though consider that he's questioning the only suspicious player from D1 (left alive...) and that he's using my pressure on ATH as a scumtell. Little silly, hm?

Spoiler: On The Defensive (click to show/hide)

Post four ⁴ he leaps to several conclusions about me and my thought processes while I was asking questions of ATH's cop investigation. I initially asked why ATH investigated me then asked for what posts of mine made me feel suspicious to ATH, after which he said he didn't investigate me but Tomasque, so I asked about that. This suggests to me that NJW is looking for the tiniest hint of scumminess from someone, so he can try to get an easy lynch.

Post five ⁵ he continues to question me regarding what I say. Better question this time, I answer in the post following this one, should anyone be interested. Said he'll look through my posts. Solid, pro-town looking post.

Post six ⁶ is NJW being quite defensive toward Megas saying he's very suspicious, extending it out to Tolyk and ATH - who admittedly said NJW was suspicious but didn't say why. No questions for anyone other than those with suspicions against him.

Post seven ⁷ is a response ATH's previous post. Still on the defensive, explains away all the things that ATH brought up and then brushes them off at the end, saying Megas' accusations were more interesting. Seems like he's trying to discredit someone who has suspicions against him, and try to look pro-town with the "Town won't seek attention. I reply to questions straight, don't I?" You can almost picture the shrug as he says this, as though the only logical answer/conclusion is "he must be town then!" because he answers questions.

Post eight ⁸ is a response to Megas' post, immediately prior to this one. Admits to bad town play. Not entirely sure of the point of this post; the self-awareness that his play so far has been poor, with the implication that he will improve later? No content added, no questions for anyone else, still defending himself, brushing it off as bad play that he's going to improve on.

Post nine ⁹ is when NJW seems to realise there are people being more active, perhaps he should be more active too. He said "I'll try to sucmhunt", which suggests he hasn't been scumhunting yet. Asks a stupid question to ATH which won't give us anything, and then a stupid question to me about hunches. Neither of which add content to the game. Has a little jokey bit in there about me making a scumslip in the post prior to this, perhaps leaving it as something to come back to if he fails to find solid evidence of my scumminess?

Post ten ¹⁰ is the most insightful piece of mafia play I have ever seen! The game just blows up for the scum from this point on, it's just magnificent!

Has added very little to the game over these seven posts. Defended himself against other people's accusations without pressing them on it, asking no questions of anyone else, continue his active lurking. Figures out in post 9 that he can't continue doing that, people might notice! So this is when he starts questioning tunneling me.

Spoiler: Oh Hector, You Scummy Bastard (click to show/hide)

Post eleven ¹¹, when shit gets real. Says we should lynch one of the inactive ICs BUTONLYAS ALASTRESORTLOL. Posts a few light scumreads on ATH and Tolyk, accusing Tolyk of going back on something he said earlier (specifically that NJW was spreading WIFOM) and then goes for me! in a horribly formatted post that's difficult to read and reply to: references some bits (only useful if you haven't changed how many posts appear per page on the forum) and quotes others, I have to supply a link to all the stuff he's talking about in the next post!

Scumreads me for asking the suspicious people questions, and trying to get the less active players involved by asking them questions, and trying to get them to ask me questions.

Tells me off for asking a crap question, failing to consider how many crap questions he's asked. Clutching at straws here. At least he quoted it...

Accuses me of dropping a line of questioning that I felt would not be useful anymore, accuses me of dropping "more lines of enquiry than a drunken kangaroo trying to catch strands of nylon in its teeth", lovely imagery but adds nothing to the game, on top of failing to provide any evidence of which lines of enquiry were dropped.

Apparently being calm when someone calls me a fish is also scummy, followed by more references and no quotes to things I said previously.

Accuses me of asking questions other people are going to ask. Obviously I'm a mind-reader, and know what questions other people are going to ask, and only questioning the most suspicious people.

I respond immediately, in the next post.

Post twelve ¹² NJW backtracks a little on what he said about Tolyk, who replied in the previous post to NJW's suggestion he went back on the WIFOM thing. NJW said he didn't mean he "went back on" in the traditional sense of "I didn't say that!" but rather... he said something else. Readying a reply to me also, so lack of anything else is reasonable.

Post thirteen ¹³ is said response. Accuses me of only attacking Roo with defensive questions about me, which reading the post in question, will quickly disprove.

Accuses my scumhunting of being an effort to avoid actually interacting with players, fails to consider not scumhunting as a better way of achieving that.

Accuses me of asking stupid questions (opinions on the cop-claim D1) again. Further ignorance to his own questions.

Accuses me of wanting people to scumhunt me instead of scumhunting others. Except the ones I'm scumhunting are the wrong people to scumhunt, apparently. "easy-targets" and "inactives".

Repeats accusations about scumhunting easy targets, accuses me of being scummy because I accuse him of being scum without bolding it, like other things I want him to reply to.

Says Roo needed to be questioned, but going after him was still going after an easy target, sorry you're still scum.

Fails to consider my FoS of him on D1 as anything other than a pressure thing, apparently I'm scum for not mentioning it ever again until now when he asked about it, which makes me look scummy because now I'm bringing it up again and not standing by it.

Accuses my extension of being an intentional townslip as scum. Repeats assertion I'm scum because I'm not scumhunting properly.

Demands I provide evidence of my innocence, the cheeky mare, when he has provided minimal, cherry-picked evidence of my guilt.

Post fourteen ¹⁴ he accuses me of only asking him questions, even though he's doing the same. Hypocrite. Also I'm avoiding tough conversations, despite interacting with someone who is convinced I'm scum.

Says tunneling is as scummy as not scumhunting. He's done both in this game.

Accuses me of misconstruing his posts. May have a point there, really. Repeats accusations I'm scumhunting the wrong people.

The post following this one, TDS votes NJW and indulges in what I thought was a chainsaw defense.

Post fifteen¹⁵ is... it reminds me of me when I was new to mafia. Not even that new...

Appears throughout, including the spoilered part, to accept my answers/responses to his questions and accusations, but then completely ignores them and repeats his assertions about why he thinks I'm scum. Says I can throw lots of example of my town behaviour at him.

Both of these suggest he has already decided I'm scum, so no amount of evidence to the contrary will sway that opinion.

Post sixteen¹⁶ is a response to TDS, basically repeats his accusations with no new evidence. Actually asks TDS a question! Unfortunately it's the same question I asked TDS earlier, and TDS answered here.

Post seventeen¹⁷ is when he actually votes for me, standing by his assertion that I'm scum. Says he'll scumhunt others. Fluff post, beyond the vote.

Post eighteen¹⁸ he summarises his arguments against me. Says I was scumhunting the wrong people and active lurking.

From all of this, it seems to me that NJW has started from a conclusion ("Hector is scum") then looked back through the game to cherry pick evidence that fits that conclusion, rather than looking through the evidence, weighing it up, and then drawing a conclusion. He ignored a lot of my responses, re-asserting my scumminess by repeating the same accusations I responded to, as though saying it more than one time will make it more true.

Spoiler: Back to The Active Lurking (click to show/hide)

Post ninteen¹⁹ is when he notices TDS' potential chainsaw defense. Says he considers other things, still thinks I'm scum. Fluff.

Post twenty²⁰ argues with himself about what scum would or wouldn't do to protect their partner, unsurprisingly can't draw a conclusion about it. Asks me, who he thinks is scum, what I think my scum partner would do in that situation. Appealing to Authority, despite thinking that authority isn't a townie? What?

Asks TDS if his defense was suitable, do you think I'm scum?

Asks Megas about the chainsaw defense as well.

Says I have unanswered things somewhere, doesn't say where they are.

Defends himself against ATH, demands a reason for the vote. Demands other people make ATH give a reason for his vote. Posts twenty-one²¹ and twenty-two²² are him trying to eke out ATH's reasons for voting him.

Post twenty-three²³ he seems to respond to me asking what things I need to answer by saying "I don't know" as that was the last question he was asked, asserts why he wants ATH to respond, which seems to be that he doesn't want ATH to look scummy by not giving a reason.

Post twenty-four²⁴, answers questions from ATH, though there is horrible formatting. Misconstrues a question ("Why was there no night-kill?") and thinks people are sitting on the fence about me being scum. Mostly because of crap logic from him.[/salty]

Mentions not being suspicious of Megas, Tolyk and Tomasque despite never-ever questioning them to any great degree, the hypocritical bastard.

Post twenty-five²⁵ he notes that the way he presented the argument and the evidence he chose to show I'm scum wasn't very good, but he still thinks I'm scum, rather than looking for better evidence, or a change in his conclusion that I'm scum.

Asserts that he found many examples of what his accusations were. Many example apparently meaning maybe five, one of which was me not responding to someone insulting me. (Post 11, check for yourself)

Gets quite WIFOM-y in figuring out whether scum would defend their scum partner.

Cherry picks one part of one post that supports his view that I'm not looking for interaction. Must be true!

Basically over these posts he repeats arguments about my scumminess, defends himself against ATH, and asks people what they thought about TDS' chainsaw defense. Doesn't ask anyone questions outside of things involving him, still refuses to consider me as a townie, despite the lack of evidence and my defense(s).

Spoiler: The Turning Point When I Start Thinking He Might Be Scum (click to show/hide)

Post twenty-six²⁶ we're going round in circles again. Repeats of me not scumhunting the right people, though now he's couching it in such a way that he's trying to prove a negative, which nobody can do. Scum IC influence, perhaps?

If he does turn out to be scum, this is a pretty good ploy: he thinks I'm scum because I've not done something, and he can't prove it because there's no evidence because I've not done it. I can't defend myself with evidence, because there is none, so he can then say "See! You must be scum then!"

Post twenty-seven²⁷ he continues to reassert my scumminess, does not offer any new evidence, though adds "General helpfulness and calls to post more" as a scumtell.

Has the cheek to say he's not saying he's changing his argument because I admitted to doing what the evidence he doesn't have because he says it's something I've not done.

Suggests I'm reiterating his argument because I've forgotten it, rather than because I think it's all nonsense.

Wonders why TDS would investigate him if he were cop. To find out your alignment?

Freaks out apparently at the question I ask TDS because the answer should be so obvious. Actually holds back on answering it for him, though. Kudos. Too bad it doesn't last long:

Post twenty-eight²⁸ answers the question for TDS.

However, he says TDS only mentioned 6/8 players when he did in fact mention 8/8 players, and asserts that TDS didn't have his reads in descending order, when the language TDS used implied otherwise.

Accuses me of black and white thinking. TDS listed me second in his most-suspicious list, and listed me second in his most-town list. I can only be town or scum, not both. That's how the game works...

Suggests that saying he had and answer to TDS' question but saying he won't give it is no him posting nonsense.

This post was the straw that broke the camel's back: I felt he was being more scummy than towny from this point, hence the FUCKTONOFPOSTANALYSISEHRMAGEHRD.

These posts made me scum read NJW quite hard. Repeating accusation without evidence, perhaps just to make everyone see how strongly he holds the opinion without having to provide evidence for it and changing his argument ever-so-slightly from "You're scum because you've been scumhunting suspicious and inactive people" to "I can't provide evidence that you've scumhunted people that are not suspicious or are not inactive."

In conclusion, I think NJW has been active lurking from the start of the game. He's jumped in and out of things, asking some questions here and there but not really actually pressured anyone until D2, when he started tunneling me.

His arguments against me seem to have started from the conclusion that "Hector must be scum" and he has then went back through the game to cherry-pick the quotes that most fit the accusations he is using, namely that I'm scumhunting the wrong people.

When I challenged his evidence, he talked past what I was saying and merely repeated the assertion that I was scum with his accusations, completely ignoring my defense.

He then went back to active lurking, only really engaging people like ATH and TDS when they voted for him, before the slight change in his argument changing it from "scumhunting only the suspicious or inactive" to "not scumhunting certain players." This requires no evidence to prove because it's a negative conclusion: it can't be proven, one way or the other. This gets into the stupid territory of him being able to say "You have no evidence that you scumhunted these people, therefore the conclusion that I draw from this lack-of-evidence must be true!"

He has no interest in scumhunting other players. I asked him who he would be scumhunting after me, and he responded in his twentieth post²⁰ he admitted to having no real reads on other players. Since then he has repeated his accusations against me, and not gone after anyone else.

This is why I think he's scum.

[NJW2000]

Well... I'll pick holes in that when I get time, which may be tonight.

[hector13]

Take your time, day is extended.

Like I said before, mostly for other people.

Also I forgot to say that this is a bit silly, and could potentially win the game for the scum.

If we lynch you and you flip town, I'll be under a great deal of pressure D3 seeing as how I'm now pushing your lynch rather hard. Scum will be able to use that to their advantage.

Same if I get lynched, and flip town. You'll be under pressure D3.

If you are town, we need you to prove it. Scumhunt someone else to find scum. There are two of them, so even if you're utterly convinced I'm scum, don't just sit back and be all "oh yeah, found scum, awesome" because there's another one out there. Find them.

[hector13]

EBWOP

Obviously defend yourself if you feel the need to first

[NJW2000]

Sure, I'll crack on with what I've got now, attack maybe 1/3, but posting more on other is probably a good idea

[Shakerag]

Well, I'm going to start by just posting a bit of post/vote analysis that I'm blatantly stealing from notquitethere.

Town got mislynched D1. That isn't unusual. Let's look back on the last five BMs:

BM L: TheDarkStar and Eyjafjallajökull were scum, TDS was on the D1 mislynch, Eyjafjallajökull was not voting.
BM XLIX: Comrade Shamrock and Worldmaster27 were scum, Comrade Shamrock was on the D1 mislynch, Worldmaster was not voting.
BM XLVIII: Illgeo and yobbo were scum. Yobbo was on the D1 mislynch. Illgeo was voting someone else.
BM XLVII: Tiruin and LARD were scum. LARD was on the D1 mislynch, Tiruin was not voting.
BM XLVI: MastahCheese and MyOwnWorstEnemy were scum. No one was lynched on D1(!), but MastahCheese and MOWE were on different targets. D2 mislynch, Mastahcheese voted for someone who didn't end up getting lynched (but might have done if there weren't a last minute swing to Pufferfish) and MOWE didn't vote at all.

Do you see the patterns here? That's right: for whatever reason, scum almost never persue the same target as one another; there's almost always a scum player on the D1 mislynch; often a scum player won't vote at all.

Roo has been lynched, he was a vanilla Townie

Votecount:
*Tomasque - (0)
*NJW2000 - Tolyk (1)
*AbstractTraitorHero - (0)
*Megggas - Tomasque (1)
*Roo - TheDarkStar Hector13 AbstractTraitorHero (3)
*Hector13 - (0)
*Tolyk - (0)
*4maskedwolf - (0)
*TheDarkStar - (0)
No Lynch - (0)

Not voting: NJW2000, Megggas, 4maskedwolf, Roo

Statistically speaking, there is a decently good chance that the scumteam is one of {TheDarkStar, Hector13, AbstractTraitorHero} and one of {NJW2000, Megggas, 4maskedwolf}.  Roo is obviously not scum.


Also notquitethere is fond of voting analysis.  He posits that scum often has fewer targets they go after.  Town tends to target a wider variety of players with votes.

So, looking at the numbers:
{player} {# of non-RVS voted targets D1} {# of non-RVS voted targets total}
Tomasque (Shakerag) - 1 - 1  (of note that Tomasque replaced out and I just got in)
NJW2000 - 1 - 1
AbstractTraitorHero - 3 - 3
Megggas - 1 - 2
Hector13 - 1 - 4
Tolyk - 1 - 2
4maskedwolf (OSG) - 0 - 1 (4masked replaced out)
TheDarkStar - 1 - 2

So analyzing this:
Tomasque/Shakerag - Doesn't appear very town-like, but this player slot has had some inactivity.
NJW2000 - Has only had one (valid) voting target the whole game so far. 
ATH - Most variety of targets D1.  I'm inclined to lean town toward him, despite all that happened D1.
Megggas - Pretty much right in the median.
Hector13 - In the median D1, but has ramped up the # of targets D2.  Possibly town, but seems on-the-ball enough to be clever scum.
Tolyk - In the median, but should possibly be experienced enough to be doing a bit better.  But Tolyk is flaky, so could all just be a null tell.
4maskedwolf/OSG - Doesn't appear very town-like, but 4masked replaced out and has been rather inactive as of late across games.  Possibly null, but might be slightly leaning scum.
TDS - In the median.  Also has a bit more experience, so could be hanging back.  Null to slightly scummy.


NJW2000:  Why did you stop voting for Hector13 late-ish in D1 only to re-vote him D2?

Megggas:  Why did you end D1 without having a vote on anyone?

Still re-reading; more to come.

[NJW2000]

Shakerag Answering question above quickly in h/w: didn't I RVS him, then take the pressure off just in case because it was a random vote and I didn't want to RVS lynch someone? Then I actually saw this case against him, and voted him when I was a bit clearer in my head and felt my case against him was definitely strong and valid?

My second vote is because I think he's dangerous scum, and am begginning to think, as ATH mentioned briefly, that a scum playing as he does, in his position, would be very dangerous.
The first vote was... well, because he was there. It was less than five posts in.

Hope this is clear, back to h/w now.