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Author Topic: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards Game over Town Victory  (Read 56269 times)

NJW2000

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #300 on: November 06, 2015, 12:56:03 pm »

ATH: So that was the collected thoughts.... ooookay.

Fair enough, I do need to scumhunt more, but I've been having trouble locking onto people. My other game I just got a good hunch and tunneled, this one... not so.

Rarely talk... yeah, I'm not the most active. But that's dodgy logic, as we've had two people who've barely posted.

And as for "diverting attention": please explain this. Town won't seek attention. I reply to questions straight, don't I?

TBH, I find Meggas' reads on me more interesting. You've also accused someone of being suspicious for being the most active poster.



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Megggas

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #301 on: November 06, 2015, 12:56:41 pm »

So, I was reading through, when...

The fact that nobody died last night and AbstractTraitorHero was able to do his investigation is rather surprising.  That means one of several things happened.
1.  The jailor blocked a scum member.
2.  The jailor protected the scum's nightkill target, which wasn't AbstractTraitorHero. 
3.  The scum decided not to kill anyone for some reason.  This would be bad play since this is counter to their win condition, so I don't think that's what happened.
4.  The scum didn't submit a target to fillipk because they were offline/inactive during Night 1.  Based on my look through everyone's profiles, this seems unlikely, but still a possibility.
5.  AbstractTraitorHero was targeted by the scum and protected by the jailor, but is lying to us about his investigation results as part of another loony gambit to try to lure out scum.  A distinct possibility given what we've seen ATH try doing on Day 1, but I hope this isn't the case.

I think #1 or #2 is what happened.  The Jailor probably targeted someone they thought seemed scummy and either they actually hit scum or hit the scum's target.  If the scum were expecting the jailor to protect ATH, then that could be why they chose a different target.  I'm leaning a bit more toward #1 since that would require only the jailor to choose the right target instead of both the scum and jailor choosing the same target.
#3. This is actually really clever. Given the assumption of "scum kill every night", that logically means a failed kill is due to a protection or the mafia being blocked. The first is ~5 times less likely to be true, so by this logic whoever the RB targeted is scum. However, scum don't have to kill every night, which is where the fun part is: By not killing, they're effectively framing the person who was jailed. So unfortunately the "jailkeeper stopped two kills" by D3 doesn't work for finding the mafia, because of possible shenanigans of framing.
Eh, that strategy seems too risky for the scum.  If ATH is the real cop, then they are just risking being investigated.  Even if they suspected that ATH would get jailed, it would have made more sense for them to target somebody else in the hopes of killing the jailkeeper.  If you're right and the scum are hoping for the jailkeeper to identify both himself and his target so that we'll kill the jailer's target, then that means the scum would have to hope to dodge twice, since it would still be possible for the jailor to pick scum regardless of whether or not scum chose to NK.  Even if their plan works, and we mislynch the jailor's target, scum would still only be able to kill 1 person tonight.  If they targeted either power role, they would still be open to being caught/stopped by the other power role.
That strategy makes even less sense if ATH is actually scum who's fakeclaiming.  Since Roo was just a regular townie, we are guaranteed to have either a cop, jailkeeper, or both.  A cop could choose to conclude that ATH is scum, not reveal himself, and focus his nighttime investigations on other players in hopes of locating the other scum.  Then if the cop finds scum, he can identify ATH's scum mate and the town has won the game.  The scum should be using their NK to hunt down the real cop, since it's better for them to only lose ATH (by killing the real cop) than both scum.  Likewise, if we have no cop, but do have a jailor, then scum could still get their NK canceled during Night 2, which would give us another free day to scum hunt.

So my suggestion is for the JK to keep quiet for now, and act almost as though they know nothing (to lower the chances of getting killed on a hunch). Possibly, hinting in your posts or main target or whatnot (in case you die). What do you folks think?
I agree.  I don't think any of us should even reveal our suspicions of who the jailor could be.

Suspiscions on me, Meggas:

Well, the fact that I'm careless comes from me doing higher level thinking then getting stuff mixed up. In fact, if you look at my last game, the last BM, you'll see that I was even more of a careless toss then :P

And Defense? Yeah, I had a problem with that in my other last game (I found the scum, but nearly got lynched by being stupid), so I'm a bit more standing back-ish. Good points, but act as town play criticisms as well as csumsigns, for the most part, if you see what I mean.
I don't understand this statement.  What do you mean?
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NJW2000

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #302 on: November 06, 2015, 01:01:48 pm »

Meggas:

You said:

Some of my statements seemed like they meant to reduce discussion. While I have said that this was actually me worrying about my reads on other players, this is not good town play. I'm aware, more so now.

Defending Myself: Yeah, last mafia (and only) I played in, I nearly got lynched after tunneling the scum through stupid aggressiveness towards a pressure vote and a rather dodgy line of thought, which the scum I'd been after the whole game had to point out the flaws in to me. This time, I fear I may have erred on the other side: not being aggressive enough.

tl;dr this was bad town play.
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AbstractTraitorHero

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #303 on: November 06, 2015, 01:29:05 pm »

ATH: So that was the collected thoughts.... ooookay.

Fair enough, I do need to scumhunt more, but I've been having trouble locking onto people. My other game I just got a good hunch and tunneled, this one... not so.

Rarely talk... yeah, I'm not the most active. But that's dodgy logic, as we've had two people who've barely posted.

And as for "diverting attention": please explain this. Town won't seek attention. I reply to questions straight, don't I?

TBH, I find Meggas' reads on me more interesting. You've also accused someone of being suspicious for being the most active poster.




about hector13 I'm strongly suspicious becuase he is in my eyes the most active player.
So I'm quite frankly worried if he's scum he could lead the town to their doom.
 so i don't necessarily believe he is scum but he is soneone i need to examine their future posts more carefully.
You not posting much and anyone not posting much is bad for town becuase it makes it harder to get a read on you and tell if your scum i feel you haven't contributed much and would like to see you post more  so i can properly analyze you.
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hector13

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #304 on: November 06, 2015, 01:54:17 pm »

ATH: I'm not entirely sure how to really ask you about your suspicions, but from what I can tell you think I'm suspicious because I'm being too town..? Posting too much and giving out too much information?

As you have said, you think I'm the most active player so... you already have a great deal of information to go over to figure out whether or not I'm scum, so you don't have to wait for me to post more to analyse my posts.

So, basically, the reasons you think NJW and I are scummy is because one of us posts too much, and the other posts too little?

You're talking about people "feeling" like scum a lot. You need to find something about them that inspires that feeling, and try to find out more about it, otherwise you've got NJW and I lined up as scum, and won't look for anyone else. I know you're wrong on one count of that, so I need you to figure out your feelings a bit better. Can you copy links on your phone? That works just as well as quoting, if you're still having trouble with quotes.
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NJW2000

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #305 on: November 06, 2015, 02:01:21 pm »

Meh. Not posting much compared to you, meggas and hector, maybe.

But I guess that's a valid reason for more posts, as is any, so I'll try to scumhunt.

ATH: Do you have any more gambits planned? I'm aware you might not tell me if you did, but I've been repeatedly clicking the preview button in the hope of fresh material. Dumb question time!


You need to find something about them that inspires that feeling, and try to find out more about it, otherwise you've got NJW and I lined up as scum, and won't look for anyone else. I know you're wrong on one count of that, so I need you to figure out your feelings a bit better.
One count? At least would have been better. Was this a scumslip? You just said that you know he's wrong on one count... the only way for you to know he was right on the other would be if you were scum!


More seriously, Hector, what are your feelings on hunches? From my own very limited experience they aren't bad, but a weak mind like mine can easily build a conspiracy around one, and they can come up aggressively.

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TolyK

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #306 on: November 06, 2015, 02:10:16 pm »

TolyK:
 You said I had a WIFOM strike. So I tried to use circular logic. Could you point this out, especially if this one made me look very scummy, as it's really more of a logical fallacy, as far as I can see. However you've played more mafia than me, is this a major scumtell? You did put me reasonably high on your list.
Well, you're second out of two, basically, so I wouldn't say it's to bad. :D
The point itself isn't major (in fact it's close to a null tell), however the fact that you referenced it while explaining possible scum behavior (iirc?) roused my suspicions.


***
you feel like you just don't care and rarely talk you feel like scum just trying to divert attention from themselves and you've done or at the very least tried barely at all or not all to scumhunt you seem like you don't care i feel your scum
NJW2000
Uh. What? Keeping vote on ATH.

So, I was reading through, when...

***
#3. This is actually really clever. Given the assumption of "scum kill every night", that logically means a failed kill is due to a protection or the mafia being blocked. The first is ~5 times less likely to be true, so by this logic whoever the RB targeted is scum. However, scum don't have to kill every night, which is where the fun part is: By not killing, they're effectively framing the person who was jailed. So unfortunately the "jailkeeper stopped two kills" by D3 doesn't work for finding the mafia, because of possible shenanigans of framing.
Eh, that strategy seems too risky for the scum.  If ATH is the real cop, then they are just risking being investigated.  Even if they suspected that ATH would get jailed, it would have made more sense for them to target somebody else in the hopes of killing the jailkeeper.  If you're right and the scum are hoping for the jailkeeper to identify both himself and his target so that we'll kill the jailer's target, then that means the scum would have to hope to dodge twice, since it would still be possible for the jailor to pick scum regardless of whether or not scum chose to NK.  Even if their plan works, and we mislynch the jailor's target, scum would still only be able to kill 1 person tonight.  If they targeted either power role, they would still be open to being caught/stopped by the other power role.
That strategy makes even less sense if ATH is actually scum who's fakeclaiming.  Since Roo was just a regular townie, we are guaranteed to have either a cop, jailkeeper, or both.  A cop could choose to conclude that ATH is scum, not reveal himself, and focus his nighttime investigations on other players in hopes of locating the other scum.  Then if the cop finds scum, he can identify ATH's scum mate and the town has won the game.  The scum should be using their NK to hunt down the real cop, since it's better for them to only lose ATH (by killing the real cop) than both scum.  Likewise, if we have no cop, but do have a jailor, then scum could still get their NK canceled during Night 2, which would give us another free day to scum hunt.
Basically, the point of this would be a gambit of one lost kill and possible discovery vs additional information. An information play. I agree that it's likely not worth the risk, but others could think differently. Plus, scum could've hoped that ATH would be blocked, if he is the real cop.

Quote
So my suggestion is for the JK to keep quiet for now, and act almost as though they know nothing (to lower the chances of getting killed on a hunch). Possibly, hinting in your posts or main target or whatnot (in case you die). What do you folks think?
I agree.  I don't think any of us should even reveal our suspicions of who the jailor could be.
It's me. Totally me.
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just do whatevery tolyK and blame it as a bastard mod
Shakerag: Who are you personally suspicious of?
At this point?  TolyK.

NJW2000

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #307 on: November 06, 2015, 02:13:46 pm »

 ???
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Megggas

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #308 on: November 06, 2015, 02:20:25 pm »

PPE:
Why is finding the jailor so important?
if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.
Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.
Assuming we lynch someone today and the scum kill someone tonight, we will have 6 people by Day 3, putting us in a MYLO situation.  We can choose to no lynch on Day 3, but after that, we'll have to lynch scum every day to win.  We only have the luxury of a random lynch today.

Quote
So my suggestion is for the JK to keep quiet for now, and act almost as though they know nothing (to lower the chances of getting killed on a hunch). Possibly, hinting in your posts or main target or whatnot (in case you die). What do you folks think?
I agree.  I don't think any of us should even reveal our suspicions of who the jailor could be.
It's me. Totally me.
Is this a joke or are you actually claiming Jailor?

Tomasque & NJW2000:  Who do you consider the most scummy person right now?

Okay, gotta go now.  I won't be able to post from my computer again until about 32 hours from now.  I definitely want to hear more from TheDarkStar and 4mask.
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NJW2000

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #309 on: November 06, 2015, 02:56:09 pm »

Meggas (Most scummy person question: basically posting my reads)

I definitely want to hear more from TheDarkStar and 4mask.
Yeah, kinda hard to get a read from this, breaks the game a bit, but if we're stuck on who to lynch, a non communicator sounds like a fine choice to me. After all other options have been exhausted, obviously.

ATH: jumps about a lot, doesn't always back up his points very well, changes direction very fast, but can't tell if this is just his playstyle.

TolyK: Mentioned a WIFOM as a slight scumtell, but went back on it when questioned. Also, wtf with jailclaiming? I prefer ATH's method to you and roo, at least we know what they're saying.


But now that I've looked through and back, thanks to your good reminder to do so:

Hector13: in the last day/5 pages, he's only attacked ATH really, and one of the inactives, which is easily activity points for a mafioso.
In fact, the last time Hector attacked someone else really was on page 15... asking roo about why he though Hector was/wasn't scum. Intriguing.

Also stuff like this, at the top of page 14
"Everyone, opinions on the cop-claiming saga. We have two people claiming a role that we know can have a maximum of one in the game, so... at least one of them is lying."
Seriously? Do you think we should scumhunt too, or would that be a bit OTT? /s, completely useless bit, saying, "hey guys, let's post on what's happening".
Same post: he asks TolyK for questions. Do mafia like being asked questions? Active style ones do!
Same post: He asks TheDarkStar, who has barely spoken, for his voting reason: good, but unlikely to get a reply. And I don't see him looking for it. As in, not chasing up the reply, at least not soon after.

Also:
How were you expecting us to have guaranteed trust in you, when you have no way of proving your role..?
It's not the most brilliant question, is it? Mafia asking obvious questions - if they want to appear active without getting embroiled in anything, there you go.

Also: Around pages 11-12: huge argument with roo, who turned out to be town. And:
PPE:
Looking back for an omgus on roo (this is why we need to be clear ::)) I realise that people may still want the hints ATH dropped to be shown. Why and to what extent is this a priotiry for you, hector13
Anyway, I wanted the hints from ATH yesterday. It's not important anymore though, 'cause if he's scum he's had too much time to figure out how to explain them away.
You're dropping more lines of questioning than a drunken kangaroo trying to catch strands of nylon in it's teeth, as far as I can see.

Oh, and you had a shamelessly calm response to this. Which doesn't mean you're scum, just weak and lacking in virility. For how could any true man or woman stand to be insulted in such a way?
Fish.

Oh, and we had a fairly contentful conversation around page 11, ending with you FoSing me... and not following it up at all? And your exchange with roo on page 8 didn't contain much but you going, "that's a weird thing to say" repeatedly. And looking back from that, you sure do enjoy those one-line semi-relevant or obvious scumhunting question posts, before page 8 or so, don't you?

Really, Hector
, you've been active, but have either gone for easy meat like the uber-dodgy roo and ATH, or just asked questions of inactive people occassionally, not followed stuff up, or simply discussed the game of mafia in a detached, academic way. I don't see you doing much for town except asking the sort of question someone was going to ask, low-level uncomitted (except for easy targets) scumhunting. So actually, I think you're the most suspicious person right now.
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hector13

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #310 on: November 06, 2015, 04:23:29 pm »

Yay! People are scumhunting.

ATH: jumps about a lot, doesn't always back up his points very well, changes direction very fast, but can't tell if this is just his playstyle.

TolyK: Mentioned a WIFOM as a slight scumtell, but went back on it when questioned. Also, wtf with jailclaiming? I prefer ATH's method to you and roo, at least we know what they're saying.

But now that I've looked through and back, thanks to your good reminder to do so:

Hector13: in the last day/5 pages, he's only attacked ATH really, and one of the inactives, which is easily activity points for a mafioso.
1. In fact, the last time Hector attacked someone else really was on page 15... asking roo about why he though Hector was/wasn't scum. Intriguing.

Also stuff like this, at the top of page 14
2. "Everyone, opinions on the cop-claiming saga. We have two people claiming a role that we know can have a maximum of one in the game, so... at least one of them is lying."

Seriously? Do you think we should scumhunt too, or would that be a bit OTT? /s, completely useless bit, saying, "hey guys, let's post on what's happening".

3. Same post: he asks TolyK for questions. Do mafia like being asked questions? Active style ones do!

4.Same post: He asks TheDarkStar, who has barely spoken, for his voting reason: good, but unlikely to get a reply. And I don't see him looking for it. As in, not chasing up the reply, at least not soon after.

Formatting things, egads. Jumbled thoughts much? :P

Byraway, all the things you referenced there are from the same post (this post, seeing as you didn't provide it) so... why were you trying to direct people to a post on page 15 when it all happened page 14?

Also, quick point, I wasn't attacking ATH, I was trying to discover the veracity of his claim, and he was not at all helpful in that respect, so I had to keep pressing him on it.

1. Roo voted for me, I posted saying he was a liar, then he said I wasn't scum and unvoted later. That struck me as odd so I wanted him to tell me about that. Why does that intrigue you?

2. So I shouldn't be encouraging the inactives to post then? I'll keep that in mind. I think that's the third time that you've suggested that people shouldn't be commenting on the cop-claim stuff. Why is that?

3. The only thing that had happened at that point in D1 was the cop-claim and the softclaim from Roo. I was trying to get people involved in the game. Town also like being asked questions, so perhaps you should consider that.

4. I don't really see what I'm s'posed to be chasing up. TDS responded toward the end of that day around 18 hours or so after I asked the question. I can't force people to answer questions, and as you say TDS wasn't around much then. I wasn't exactly just resting on my laurels and waiting for him to reply was I? I posted three times with questions for ATH trying to figure out why he decided to claim cop on D1, specifically because I was very uncertain over whether it was genuine or fakeclaiming.

Also:
How were you expecting us to have guaranteed trust in you, when you have no way of proving your role..?
It's not the most brilliant question, is it? Mafia asking obvious questions - if they want to appear active without getting embroiled in anything, there you go.

I note that you fail to bring up the questions I asked on the next page to ATH, one about the games he said he read, then a question about his thought process in claiming, which I then poke holes in halfway down page 16/post 232.

So I'm going to accuse you at this point of being scum, cherry-picking quotes to suit the case you're inventing.

Also: Around pages 11-12: huge argument with roo, who turned out to be town. And:

I didn't know Roo was town at that point though, did I? He was softclaiming something, not scumhunting and not answering questions. Does that sound like town play to you? If so, how?

PPE:
Looking back for an omgus on roo (this is why we need to be clear ::)) I realise that people may still want the hints ATH dropped to be shown. Why and to what extent is this a priotiry for you, hector13
Anyway, I wanted the hints from ATH yesterday. It's not important anymore though, 'cause if he's scum he's had too much time to figure out how to explain them away.
You're dropping more lines of questioning than a drunken kangaroo trying to catch strands of nylon in it's teeth, as far as I can see.

One instance does not a pattern make. If you want to tack this on to me, find more examples, preferably better ones.

I first asked ATH to provide quotes here, followed up here (which was 5 posts, half an hour later) resulting in ATH saying he couldn't quote, and then me trying to talk him through it. Followed up again here. I dropped the line of questioning in the bit you quoted, 21 hours and 80 posts after I first asked for the quotes. If ATH was scum, that was more than enough time for them to hash out a way to excuse any of the "hints" he dropped between the two mafiosos and the scum IC, so it would be a pointless endeavour.

Given that you said I've dropped other lines of enquiry, do point them out dearie.

Oh, and you had a shamelessly calm response to this. Which doesn't mean you're scum, just weak and lacking in virility. For how could any true man or woman stand to be insulted in such a way?
Fish.

Oh, and we had a fairly contentful conversation around page 11, ending with you FoSing me... and not following it up at all? And your exchange with roo on page 8 didn't contain much but you going, "that's a weird thing to say" repeatedly. And looking back from that, you sure do enjoy those one-line semi-relevant or obvious scumhunting question posts, before page 8 or so, don't you?

Am I s'posed to just gloss over the fact that Roo said that he was quite happy to wait until D2 with 90 hours left in D1? That doesn't strike you as a little bit odd?

The FoS on you was mostly just to see how you reacted. My vote was going to be on ATH or Roo for the end of D1, and I was trying to figure out which one it should be. Roo didn't answer any questions directed at him from when he voted then unvoted me, and I couldn't see that being from a town perspective, so that's why I left my vote there. I was considering moving my vote to Megggas to tie the vote up, but that would have resulted in a no-lynch, which would've been pointless. Had I known the scum's NK was going to fail, I would have liked to do that, though...

Really, Hector, you've been active, but have either gone for easy meat like the uber-dodgy roo and ATH, or just asked questions of inactive people occassionally, not followed stuff up, or simply discussed the game of mafia in a detached, academic way. I don't see you doing much for town except asking the sort of question someone was going to ask, low-level uncomitted (except for easy targets) scumhunting. So actually, I think you're the most suspicious person right now.

How am I s'posed to follow up questions when people don't answer them? As I already said, I can't force people to answer my questions or be active. I can drop votes on people and see, that's what I did at the start of the day, but 4mask is nowhere to be seen, so I'll change my vote to someone who is inactive and I don't have a read on, get them to post something. Hopefully.

What am I not doing for town that you can't apply to yourself, or Tolyk, or ATH? Or anyone else in the game? I'm asking questions, yes mostly of ATH but I'm trying to figure out his play because he's claimed Cop.

Further, I did suggest to everyone that an extension would be useful. Given that Roo turned up town, if I were scum why wouldn't I just leave things as they were and risk more information being brought into play before the end of the day, potentially ruining that mislynch?

Unvote

I'm trying to get people I don't have reads on to actually post, which is somewhat difficult with only one vote. An FoS doesn't really do anything, other than say "yeah, if I had more votes I'd use 'em on you, but I don't so carry on". There are presently three people I want to get talking more:

1. ATH, because other than claiming, he's done nothing in the game. I want him to back up his gut feelings with some evidence from quotes and such like, but he's failing to produce them despite several attempts at getting him to do so. Of the three, he's the one I feel most likely to be bad-playing town, though that's not saying much.

2. 4mask, because there's what, 2 posts from him? Not much to go on is it? That's why I voted at the start of the day to get him to actually talk.

3. TDS, because he's not posted much, and I'd quite like him to respond to the stuff I asked him earlier.
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fillipk

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #311 on: November 06, 2015, 04:28:00 pm »

Votecount:
*Tomasque - (0)
*NJW2000 - AbstractTraitorHero (1)
*AbstractTraitorHero - Tolyk (1)
*Megggas - (0)
*Hector13 - (0)
*Tolyk - (0)
*4maskedwolf - (0)
*TheDarkStar - Hector13 (1)
No Lynch - (0)

Not voting: NJW2000, Megggas, 4maskedwolf, TheDarkStar, Tomasque

Extension requests: 0/3
Shorten requests: 0/5

Day ends at 1:30 PM PST Tuesday, November 10th.  There are two extensions available.
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Giving waitlisted people the ability to murder non-responsive players was a great idea. Need to do that more often.

TolyK

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #312 on: November 06, 2015, 04:54:29 pm »

Jesus christ, the "I'm the jailer" thing was a joke. I thought it would be evident, given I had said "jailer should shush" in my last post...
Jeez.
PPE:
Why is finding the jailor so important?
if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.
Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.
Assuming we lynch someone today and the scum kill someone tonight, we will have 6 people by Day 3, putting us in a MYLO situation.  We can choose to no lynch on Day 3, but after that, we'll have to lynch scum every day to win.  We only have the luxury of a random lynch today.
Nono, I meant "given the statictical odds of finding scum", which is practically a random lynch. If scumhunting works, then great.

TolyK: Mentioned a WIFOM as a slight scumtell, but went back on it when questioned. Also, wtf with jailclaiming? I prefer ATH's method to you and roo, at least we know what they're saying.
I did not go back on that, you filthy liar!!!1!
Jokes aside, I clarified that in the context you spewed the WIFOM, it was a scumtell, and I did not claim to be the JK. Stop trying to make a case on false accusations.



Funny how the IC's, namely TDS and 4masked, barely post. :P
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My Mafia Stats
just do whatevery tolyK and blame it as a bastard mod
Shakerag: Who are you personally suspicious of?
At this point?  TolyK.

NJW2000

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #313 on: November 06, 2015, 05:11:29 pm »

By "went back on", I meant, "said wasn't too scummy", not that you actually changed the literal truth of what you said. You just toned what was a stark thing down. I've been saying I don't have great reads, haven't I?

RE: Hector: will do points in like 20 mins, 1 hours, or so.

RE: Everyone: stop with roleclaim jokes.
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One wheel short of a wagon

AbstractTraitorHero

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #314 on: November 06, 2015, 05:11:51 pm »

Well, I should say that lynching ATH isn't the only option we have if he isn't killed N1, but anyway: I would lynch ATH D2 because either:

a) he's fakeclaiming cop, and I don't see why a townie would do that.

or b) he's telling the truth, but we won't know for sure until after his flip, which requires death. If the scum don't NK him N1, they may very well do it N2 anyway, because the odds of him investigating scum increase from 2 in 7 on N1 to 1 in 2 on N2, assuming we don't lynch scum (in which case the odds drop to 1 in 4, assuming his N1 investigation is alive/1 in 5 if not) and the person investigated on N1 is still alive (otherwise it would be 2 in 5 if we missed scum/1 in 5 if not)

We wouldn't have to lynch him, necessarily, if he said who he investigated N1, in case the scum do NK him N2. That way we can focus our attention on actually finding scum rather than lynching our Cop. However, surviving to D3 would necessitate a lynch I think, because I don't think the scum would leave the cop alive for 2 nights straight. (pending flips from the D1 + 2 lynch, and the N1 + 2 NKs, obviously. Cop may flip long before then.)

PPE: NJW, and Tolyk really, there might not actually be a cop in this setup, which is another issue for us to consider. At this point I think he was fakeclaiming, but this being a BM, I'm not sure if it was a n00b town move, and I'd rather not risk losing the cop D1 if he is telling the truth. It's not a pleasant situation to be in :-\

Think I'll stick an FoS on NJW for the moment though. You're not asking many questions, which I find bothersome.

I found a way to quote but i can only quote one quote from a previous page but this post is where i started to get a bad feeling and looking at it i don't understand why exactly basically i suspect you but reading through your posts you don't seem suspicious i mean sometimes your posts are just fluff instead of content but i feel thats a null tell I'm also slightly guilty of this at least i feel like everyonce and a while my posts are fluff instead of useful content so i think I'm suspicious of you simply becuase if your scum you could lead the town to its death.
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((I just facepalmed so hard I have a concussion))
Rip Abigail South Death by Drop pod my avatar is now morbid.
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