Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[smjjames]

Hopefully Puerto Rico doesn't get hit by Issac: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2018/tropical-storm-isaac?map=ensemble

I guess we'll know by about mid-week whether it'll avoid PR. Having it hit and the response be equally bad would be, well, disastrous....

[TamerVirus]

This projection has Florence park it’s ass of the coast of the Carolinas.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

I’m not a meteorologist, but that’s probably no bueno

[smjjames]

If it does stall (and the models are certainly showing the spaghettification (a term I just made up, not an actual term) that we saw with Harvey), it could easily become the Harvey of the East.

[Folly]

spaghettification (a term I just made up, not an actual term)

In astrophysics, spaghettification (sometimes referred to as the noodle effect) is the vertical stretching and horizontal compression of objects into long thin shapes (rather like spaghetti) in a very strong non-homogeneous gravitational field; it is caused by extreme tidal forces. In the most extreme cases, near black holes, the stretching is so powerful that no object can withstand it, no matter how strong its components. Within a small region the horizontal compression balances the vertical stretching so that small objects being spaghettified experience no net change in volume.

Also, Helene and Isaac are both now considered likely to follow Florence this coming weekend.

[sluissa]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

There is still a small window for Florence to veer off course, but that window is rapidly closing. Anyone living on the east coast should start taking precautions now.

Just to note, that second image shows Florence still off the coast Thursday morning, but Tropical Storm force winds are possible Wednesday night. So if you're making preparations, do them BEFORE then. Monday and Tuesday are your last full days of good weather. It'll likely start turning crap sometime Wednesday. And stores will be chaos as people try to grab the last batteries, bottled water, and beans off the shelves. If you're planning on leaving, Wednesday would likely be a bad day to do so. Highways will be clogged and you do NOT want to get stuck riding out a storm in your car instead.

Prep early. Leave Early.

EDIT: Probably linked before in this thread, but shoutouts again to http://www.spaghettimodels.com/. Your one stop shop for anything Atlantic Hurricane related.

[smjjames]

spaghettification (a term I just made up, not an actual term)

In astrophysics, spaghettification (sometimes referred to as the noodle effect) is the vertical stretching and horizontal compression of objects into long thin shapes (rather like spaghetti) in a very strong non-homogeneous gravitational field; it is caused by extreme tidal forces. In the most extreme cases, near black holes, the stretching is so powerful that no object can withstand it, no matter how strong its components. Within a small region the horizontal compression balances the vertical stretching so that small objects being spaghettified experience no net change in volume.

Also, Helene and Isaac are both now considered likely to follow Florence this coming weekend.

I made it up as a term relating to hurricane models, I know it’s a term in astrophysics. It’s called context.

Issac and Helene aren’t following the same path though, obviously. Issac is supposedly staying south of the larger Carribean islands (but could turn at any point), Helene is... going somewhere, not clear what it’ll do I guess.

Edit: From the spaghetti models site, looks like Helene will stay out to sea, with its remnants giving the UK or France a good drenching.

There’s also a thing developing off of the Yucatán, anything could happen there.

[RedKing]

Point to note: outside of Florida and the Gulf Coast, massive evacuations aren't a common thing. Eastern NC is sparsely populated, and it's post-peak tourist season so the beaches aren't that full. Our highways should be able to handle anybody that wants to come further inland, not that many people will bother. The southern OBX will likely evacuate, the northern part won't unless the track changes radically. Even the southern portion may not -- the full-time residents ride out shit like this all the time.


As for me though....FUCK. Latest projections I've seen are for it to still be Cat 2 when it gets to where I am. 90mph/150kph winds are nothing to sneeze at, but we're down in a valley inside a valley, so strong winds tend to blow over us. But the downside of said topographical location is that every drop of rain in a square mile is going to come running downhill at us, and then drain into a rain-swollen river 50 yards away. Matthew had the river within a few inches of the backdoor in 2016. 

EDIT: Double fuck. Most of the models are now showing it stalling out shortly after landfall, dropping "epic" rain. We could be in for another Floyd.

[smjjames]

This Floyd https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd ?  It didn’t stall out the way Harvey did, so, if Florence does stall out for days, it’ll be worse than Floyd in terms of rainfall output and flooding.

[RedKing]

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore was spotted yesterday passing through RDU Airport, and spotted again this morning in Wilmington.

***WE ARE FULL DEFCON5, THIS IS NOT A DRILL***

[TamerVirus]

The horseman of apocalyptic weather

[smjjames]

Several articles on it:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/10/us/florence-hurricane-season-wxc/index.html

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Florence-Rapidly-Intensifying-Likely-Hit-North-or-South-Carolina-Thursday?cm_ven=hp-slot-2

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2018-09-10-hurricane-florence-forecast-us-east-coast?cm_ven=wu_videos

I wonder if Trump has even taken notice of it yet....

[RedKing]

"RIGGED WEATHER! Many people are saying the Very Angry Democrats asked Obama to use his **SECRET WEATHER MACHINE** to try and reduce the number of Republican voters in November!! They know that's the only way they can win. Remember this Carolina -- if I get impeached, it's because you didn't swim hard enough! SAD!"

EDIT: Florence already back up to Cat 3. That didn't take long.

[sluissa]

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore was spotted yesterday passing through RDU Airport, and spotted again this morning in Wilmington.

***WE ARE FULL DEFCON5, THIS IS NOT A DRILL***

Honestly, as fun of a joke as it is, Jim's been on a streak of missing the worst hit spots over the last few years. Not as reliable as he once was.

[RedKing]

Now I'm curious if Jeff Piotrowski will be there. Although he's more of a tornado guy than a hurricane guy.

Maybe Wilmington or Southport will have their #BlueShed moment.

EDIT: Oh sheeit...Piotrowski confirmed as well.
https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1038557579557916672

[smjjames]

Heh, yeah, that sturdy little blue shed that could. lol.

Was it ever found out what that shed was made of? Probably wood, but still, hell of a viral moment.