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[RedKing]

So, the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season is upon us. As there's a not insubstantial number of us B12'ers on the US East Coast, I figure we might as well have a thread to discuss the storm and post updates as needed.

Current conditions: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

As of this time, Hurricane Joaquin is centered at 23.8N 73.1W, just to the NE of the Turks and Caicos. It's headed SW towards the islands but is expected to make a sharp turn to the north after brushing the islands. The storm is currently a Category 3, with sustained winds of 115mph.

Current 5-day track has the storm possibly strengthening to a Cat 4 over the next two days, but then weakening before making landfall. THe centerline of the strike cone currently has it making landfall near Elizabeth City, NC on Sunday evening.

However, the projected path has been trending westward the last 12 hours, so it could hit eastern NC straight on if that trend keeps up. We haven't had a direct strike in NC since 2000 (Floyd, which put a large swath of the eastern coastal plain underwater -- it was like Katrina but without any real cities). In fact, we've barely had any hurricanes in the last 15 years, usually just brushing along the Outer Banks.

The track then has it crossing the Chesapeake Bay during the day on Monday and making a second landfall almost directly on top of Washington DC on Monday evening. (Cue "God's wrath against Obama/Congress" chatter.)

The worrying bit is that it's going to collide with a low pressure front which has already been stalled over the East Coast dropping a fair amount of rain the last week. Predictions are for a total of 10 inches or more in some areas, sufficient to waterlog the soil and make trees and power lines come down even with just a stiff breeze. 

[Aklyon]

IT GONNA RAIN.

That is indeed the most fitting subtitle for this.

[Kearn]

So, the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season is upon us.

for what it's worth, danny was the first (for a few hours)

also for what it's worth, some models are showing 15 and even 20+ inches of rain by monday in the midatlantic and northeast. so yeah. it gonna rain.

[Frumple]

*looks at the projected path* Uh. Huh. Not looking like it's going to hit florida at all, huh.

... seriously, it's gotten to point I'm vaguely unsettled. I can't recall a major hurricane making landfall since... a while back. Years. Looks like we haven't had double digit casualties to any one storm since freaking katrina in '05, and apparently no notably damaging onces since wilma in the same year. S'bloody unnatural in any case. Always end up spending part of the year waiting for the hammer to drop, because if the weather's been this placid for this long, whatever it brings to bear next is just going to sink the goddamn swamp in one go or some crazy shit like that. Maybe pick it up and drop it on kansas or somethin'.

Guess that explains where some of the rain's coming from, anyway. Well, uh. Good luck, folks further north? If it's only going to hit cat four, y'all'll probably be a'ight. Just don't do stupid things and maybe scoot out of valleys and landslide prone areas for a few days. Think you lot actually have to worry about that with your fancy mountains an'crap. Maybe you'll get to see birds flying in reverse! That's always good for a laugh.

E: Then again, it looks like most of the ones I've lived through were just cat 3s. Did weather the cat 5 when I was a preteen, but the cat four that came later hit too far south to really do anything to my area. Eh. Still, is just hurricane. Stay not stupid, get out of flood plains/get on hills, avoid places you should avoid, etc., etc. They're pretty great, massive infrastructure damage and occasional casualties aside.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I'd say that I'm glad to be in the mountains these days, but it fucking rains endlessly here anyway.

[MaximumZero]

This is why I live in a place with no hurricanes, guys. Sure, we get rain, but it's in moderation.

[RedKing]

Yeahhhhh.....see, the thing is, I have a creek 50 feet from the house, and a fucking RIVER about 200 feet from the house. And we're at the bottom of a valley. We have yet to go through a hurricane here, and it's pretty flat back there once the water crests. Now, it would have to rise about 4-5 feet to crest, but depending on how fast that comes down, it's plausible. Though the creek would flood long before the river, and turn the side of the yard into a canal.

Wonder how much sandbags are going for these days...

[MetalSlimeHunt]

You'd probably genuinely be better off renting a semi, driving to North Dakota, stealing ten thousand pounds of government-issue disaster sandbags, and then driving back to North Carolina bribing highway patrolmen and sleeping at five-star hotels than buying sandbags here.

[Frumple]

This is why I live in a place with no hurricanes, guys. Sure, we get rain, but it's in moderation.

No, no... the smaller ones can be nice. If it avoids kicking up tornadoes and embedding pine straw in brick buildings and whatnot, it's mostly just a proper storm, the likes of which you don't really get to see otherwise. Red skies and birds going the opposite direction they're pointing brings back memories of vaguely fond nostalgia. Pretty sure that was opal. Helps a bit I've always been a bit inland, but eh.

... though, on the other hand, extended power outages are a lot more annoying these days. Properly addicted to the internet at this point, wasn't back then.

And ouch, RK. Y'got somewhere else to go to until it blows over? Being in a flood plain type area is one of the places you really don't want to be during a particularly heavy rain hurricane. Hope y'got proper home owners insurance...

[i2amroy]

This is why I live in a place with no hurricanes, guys. Sure, we get rain, but it's in moderation.

You guys get rain?!? I live in a state that gets an average of 8.04 inches of rain... per year. (And where I live in the state usually something like 1/2 of that falls as snow ).

On the other hand we get wildfires here in Az, so there's that I guess.

[MaximumZero]

Between 35-40 inches of rain/snow-measured-as-rain a year, depending on who you ask.  Mind you, if it were all snow, it'd be between 320-450 inches of snow based on variables like temperature and snow moisture.

[RedKing]

@Frumple: We rent. So I'm not worried about the structure, just our stuff on the first floor. I suppose if things start to look ugly, we'll frantically move things upstairs. Some furniture might be a loss, but it's all secondhand anyways.

And I have my kids staying with me this weekend. :-/

I'm sure I'm probably worrying over nothing -- we're pretty far inland. Bigger issue might be power outages. When Fran hit back in the '90s, this area was without power for WEEKS. Given that I telecommute, that could be a serious problem. And all it would take would be a couple of sizable trees to come down in two spots to completely seal in the neighborhood. Hopefully there's enough folks around here with chainsaws.


EDIT: Ugh. Flood stage for the Eno is 20 feet in Durham, 16 feet in Hillsborough, but in both cases that's where there are bridges over it. Flood stage for us would be around 4-5 feet, from my estimation and a look at the topo maps. River currently at 2', was up to nearly 3' a few days ago after all the rain. We're in the 100-year flood plain. :-/

[mainiac]

This could mildly disrupt my schedule.

[Bouchart]

Here I am.  Rock you like a hurricane.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

At least we can get back to that reputation before climate change either eliminates hurricanes in this area or parks a permanent monsoon season right on top of Raleigh. RNC Center or riot!