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[martinuzz]

The island of Dominica has been destroyed according to it's Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit.

[smjjames]

The island of Dominica has been destroyed according to it's Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit.

Dominican Republic? Maria hasn't even gotten there yet and Irma spared it and Haiti the worst effects. Oh, different island with the same name.

[RedKing]

Maria at 165mph, with tight eyewall and dropping central pressure, which signals further intensification. And it's headed straight at Puerto Rico.

Jose continues to stagger around in loops like a drunk sailor, with models sending its 3-day track in every direction.

Spoiler: More like Hurricane Jose Cuervo, amirite? (click to show/hide)

And Lee has sputtered out to nothing, thankfully.

[smjjames]

Yeah, Jose has been lingering around for quite some time. Also, the future path of Maria is going to depend on what Jose is doing as Maria approaches. The article mentions that one possible scenario is with Maria getting swung out to sea via the Fujiwhara effect (also explained in the article).

[RedKing]

This morning's Maria track guidance is looking very much like Jose's at the beginning of the week -- almost direct northward turn, stays about 100mi off the East Coast.
Good news if it holds. After hitting the Puerto Rico, the eye has gotten much more wobbly and the overall strength has dropped to a Cat 4.

Of note: There are currently no NWS radar maps for Puerto Rico, because Maria *broke* the radars.


Jose tracks still look like it's tied to a fidget spinner. Could go north, or east, or west, or south. One track has it hitting Boston, and at least 3-4 have it hitting Washington DC. Good thing is that it's down to Tropical Storm level.

Lee is kaput, though there is a 60% chance that the remnants could reorganize into a new tropical system.

[inteuniso]

The island of Dominica has been destroyed according to it's Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit.

I visited there about two years back. Was a highly disorganized trip, where I stayed in some random person's home across the street from the airport in Barbados for a layover and found out about an ecolodge where I stayed for two nights. The day before I left I went into the only city on the island, Roseau, and on the way out bus driver and I noticed a massive, 1km vortex form off the coast. He and I both took it as quite a bad sign.

Also I'm pretty sure that place has seen rains almost every day. Must be the increase in UV radiation leading to more cloud cover; also since plants tend to be efficient water storage devices (in rainforests, holding up to 60% of water in the precipitation system) it's a self-reinforcing global cycle of plant growth from water precipitation increasing the amount of precipitable water.

EDIT: Apparently the island has been destroyed pretty thoroughly.

[smjjames]

I wonder if a tropical depression is enough for a fujiwhara effect? Jose is expected to be a tropical depression on Monday and that's when Maria starts getting close enough for that fujiwhara effect thing to maybe take effect.

[Max™]

I think all significant low pressure zones start orbiting others if they get close enough

[Frumple]

... welp. Here's hoping it sticks to the low end, 'cause the gulf got incoming again. Currently tropical depression, looks like they're predicting hurricane strength by sunday, right about on time to hit the panhandle coast.

[Frumple]

Assuming it stays one, anyway. Probably, maybe, hopefully...

[RedKing]

Given the fact that we've had storms jump up 55mph in the span of a day, any storm is worth keeping an eye on. Especially now that the Caribbean and Gulf have had a couple weeks to warm back up.

[RedKing]

Storm now designated Tropical Storm Nate. Current track has it right at New Orleans.

[Frumple]

Maybe nature's looking to get a direct hit on all the gulf coast states instead of just the important ones...

[smjjames]

Eh, a cat 1 isn't that big of a deal.

In general, yeah, but New Orleans struggles with regular summer storms, so, even a Cat1 hurricane would screw it up.

[Frumple]

Eh, technically a cat 1 that loiters in the right way can screw over just about anyone. They just don't much tend to move in the right way to put water and persistent high winds where they hurt the most for the minimum durations required.

Category is a measure of wind speed, after all, not things like size, precipitation, or duration, and wind is often the least damaging part of a hurricane. They're just usually pretty well correlated, heh.