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[Frumple]

Can't tell if that's touching or anger generating at using the power when it (or the money spent on the excess) could be used for something actually useful.

... also, entirely aware the causal connection is nil, but that people have started doing that about when the storm's started pulling west makes me maybe wish they'd stop. If there's any effect, it's either not doing what they seem to want it to, or causing irma to track the other direction out of pure spite. Which would be an extra helluva' thing considering it's a meteorological phenomena and does not possess the capability to feel or express spite.

Please stop taunting the Texas sized whirligig of doom, people

[sluissa]

There is no affect those fans could be having. There might be some people involved who believe they're doing something, but largely I think it's an attempt at levity in a rough time.

I'd just relax about it, it's kind of funny, except for the part where there might be people thinking they're actually doing something to help.

[martinuzz]

US hurricane institute warns that the Florida coast will get to endure stormtides of about 3 meters higher than usual tides. It is predicted that the entire Florida Keys archipelago will be transformed into a swamp.

[Frumple]

More of*. Keys are more beach than most but this entire state is a swamp, just tamed to varying degrees. That said, yeah, keys probably about to just kinda' sink. Pretty sure not the first time, for what it's worth. Things are about the most vulnerable place in a state that might as well be the glowing part of a giant crab.

[smjjames]

In other news, an 8.0 earthquake off the coast of Mexico leaves us with tsunamis coming in shortly. Followed by Katia hitting the opposite end of the same hunk of land.

Wrong side of Mexico, it's on the Pacific side. And dang, mag 8, that's big. And it's not really the opposite chunk of land. The quake is very close to the Guatemala border and Katia is hitting the coast directly opposite that.

Alright, we're getting set to evac tomorrow. Headed to Jackson, MS; everything closer is booked to hell and back. At least this way we're out of the path and out of the traffic.

I thought you were in Arizona? But yeah, stay safe.

Looks like Miami is going to be getting hit by morning.

I moved to Tampa. Additionally, that's what I meant by "opposite end". Bad phrasing on my part.

Oh, didn't know you had moved. Knew you had said your parents lived in Florida previously though. Though if you mentioned it before, I either missed it or forgot about it, most likely missed.

More of*. Keys are more beach than most but this entire state is a swamp, just tamed to varying degrees. That said, yeah, keys probably about to just kinda' sink. Pretty sure not the first time, for what it's worth. Things are about the most vulnerable place in a state that might as well be the glowing part of a giant crab.

I don't think a giant crab would be particularily vulnerable, and I'd probably want to stay away from the glowing part of a giant crab, especially if I'm in waters deep enough to filter out 99% of the sunlight.

Last I looked (and CNN has said) the track is trending west a little, but Irma is so freaking big that a little bit (I think someone said 40 miles?) makes almost no difference at all.

[Urist McScoopbeard]

it is, at least, supposed to weaken more as it approaches Orlando thankfully. Hopefully it doesn't reintensify too badly.

[smjjames]

It may still intensify between the Bahamas and the Florida coast. I can see on CNN that it's having gusts that go right up to 180, 190, so, just because it weakens somewhat doesn't mean that gusts won't be in the Cat5 zone.

Also, should have seen the pic someone posted of a montage of Hurricane Andrew (the last really destructive storm to hit Florida) and Hurricane Irma. Irma is like 3x the size of Andrew.

fakeedit: You know, I wonder why NOAA doesn't post up the tracks and ensembles for the data on the page for the Hurricane? Seems like useful data. Then again, it's wider than the whole freaking state. The tracks shown on weatherunderground's page show it potentially going on either side of the coast and everywhere in between.

[sluissa]

The worry is that people will focus too much on an individual model run. The NHC predictions are usually a more conservative average of the models that will keep people on their toes more. If it says itll skim the coast, the NHC will put the track closer to land just to get people to think they can't ignore it. A twitch west just now had them move the  cone from eastern FL to covering most of the state. I respect the decisions they have to make and the push to keep people safe, but its strategic to keep the model runs less out of the public eye. Although that's getting harder. Some models also limit how they can be used. ECMWF specifically doesn't want their model pasted onto the same graphic as other models. Who knows what other fine print they have to follow

[RedKing]

Those people with the fans can go fuck themselves. Pushing the storm east would send it up here. Right now, NC is barely going to see anything.

Sorry, Florida, you just have to accept that you're America's hurricane armor. Take one for the team, and we'll send you a whole bunch of thoughts and prayers. You can eat those, right?

Meanwhile, Jose is up to Category 4, but thankfully appears poised to turn back out to sea, after scraping Antigua, Barbuda, St. Martin/Maarten and St. Eustatius.

Also, fun fact: First time in recorded history that we've had three consecutive hurricanes all attain Category 4 (or higher) status.

[smjjames]

The worry is that people will focus too much on an individual model run. The NHC predictions are usually a more conservative average of the models that will keep people on their toes more. If it says itll skim the coast, the NHC will put the track closer to land just to get people to think they can't ignore it. A twitch west just now had them move the  cone from eastern FL to covering most of the state. I respect the decisions they have to make and the push to keep people safe, but its strategic to keep the model runs less out of the public eye. Although that's getting harder. Some models also limit how they can be used. ECMWF specifically doesn't want their model pasted onto the same graphic as other models. Who knows what other fine print they have to follow

Good point.

edit: I don't know where exactly the windspeed meter on CNN is measuring from, but it's currently bouncing from just below the Cat5 mark to just above it.

[Patchy]

Well just like last years Hurricane Mathew, I'm getting ready to ride this one out too. Hopefully it goes as well as last year and only does minimal damage. Will post again on the flip-side, when power/net gets restored. Stay safe to everyone in the way of this monster.

[Frumple]

Good luck. Hopefully you're in a relatively safe place, 'cause folks are hammering things pretty hard that this is too damn likely to be more dangerous than matthew was. Or pretty close to any hurricane that's hit the south east US since we've been recording the things.

As for wind speed, smj, latest I've seen is that irma's down to a strong cat 4 at the moment, but a) hasn't hit that patch of warm water in between florida and the islands and b) has been increasing in size and total energy even as the winds have slacked up a bit. Sustained winds lower, potential scope and total shitkick being carried along, higher, and the bones on reintensification still to be rolled.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

By the way, Jeff Piotrowski is going to be covering this one on Periscope as well. Tomorrow he's going to be locating a site somewhere on South Beach, and should be livestreaming the storm once again.

[Frumple]

... another reason among several hundred thousand to hope it doesn't hit at cat 5, I guess.

speaking of that

Those uninterested in checking twitter links, it's a heads up that recent recon of the storm is showing the pressure beginning to drop (again). Which is apparently one of the signs it may be getting ready to rev back up, which is a helluva' thing to say considering cat 4 is already more or less chainsaw on nitro.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

He said that, and keeping in mind that this guy finds most storms fun, Irma "scares him" and is "one for the history books".