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[Loud Whispers]

Is it normal for your weather to resemble the surface of Jupiter

[Frumple]

A few times a year, yes.

At least at the moment, it sorta' looks like it'll hit to the east of me, personally, but, well. There's like an entire day and a half to change course, and I'm definitely inside the current advisory area, just... off to the side. Which isn't saying that much considering that's currently like a third of the state or somethin'.

Prediction when I posted last didn't have it hitting major hurricane levels, but hey, that's changed. Surprise! I mean, not actually a surprise, but... still. Likely to hit cat 3, now the question is does it go higher, and if so... second cat 5 of the last decade to hit florida?

Let's hope not

[Frumple]

Bump 'cause Idalia's going to hit land somewhere in the next six or seven hours. If any of y'all are in the way, you still got some time to gtfo, I think. Stay safe, regardless.

Currently, uh. The entire states of Florida, Georgia, North and South Carolina, and at least Virginia are under marginal to [either moderate or high] (I can't friggin' tell 'cause they're showing as the same color on NOAA's map for some ungodly reason) risk of flash flooding in the next 48 hours. East coast 'bout to get goddamn soaked.

Incidentally, this is the strongest hurricane to hit that particular portion of the Florida coast in recorded meteorological history; we haven't had a cat 3+ one go through the appalach bay since at least the 1800s, probably earlier. In other words, this is a literally historic storm for the state. Here's hoping the damage isn't equally historic

[martinuzz]

Stay safe

[Loud Whispers]

Hunker down and keep minty Frumple. I'm rooting for your victory; survival is win when the wind is so potent

[Frumple]

Oh, I'm fine, personally. Worst we've seen/are expected to see here is like 40 mph gusts and a few inches of rain; we've had worse non-supercell thunderstorms this year, basically.

Folks east of me are kinda' fucked, though. Idalia's apparently hit cat 4 and it hasn't quite made landfall yet. Mostly just hoping it doesn't do the full michael and omnifuck the area it hits with cat 5 winds... cat 4's bad enough -- anything over 2 is going to cause substantial damage where it hits worst, anything over 3 is going to be fucking devastating -- but cat 5 is like someone taking an angry drunken lawnmower to your skyline. At least with cat 4 it'll probably only be drunk

Though this rapid intensification thing... I can't remember if it happened more than this, but at minimum this is the second time this has happened to florida in the last five years. At this point, I think you're probably safest just assuming every hurricane going through the gulf is a cat 4-5 and acting accordingly. The lower category hurricanes are relatively harmless outside of flooding/storm surge, but... we can't even somewhat reliably predict storms are going to stay those anymore, apparently

E: Any case, it turns out "behold the sun" was an entirely too apt moniker for a storm. Giant ball of hate destroying everything it touches. That's the sun, a'ight.

[Folly]

Tropical Storm Beryl is barreling towards Texas!



After making history as the earliest Cat5 hurricane ever recorded, Beryl devastated the Caribbean islands as a Cat4 hurricane before downgrading to a Cat2 storm, but is expected to strengthen back into a hurricane in the coming hours before making landfall early Monday morning.

[McTraveller]

I'm just n the cone... in Michigan!  Forecasting like 3"rain... gonna flood the yard for sure. I just uncovered the access lids to have the septic pumped... what great timing to have a 20' x 4' 18-inch-deep pool!  I doubt the tarp I put over it will do much.

At least we shouldn't have too much wind, just the rain.

Water leaks/issues are my nightmare...

EDIT: My anxiety rises: forecast rain total keeps increasing.

EDIT2: Uncalibrated rain total for my house: 87mm (just under 3.5").  Not as bad as I feared, but still a lot for our area.

[Folly]

Debby is on her way to Florida!



Expected to make landfall as a Cat1 Hurricane around noon on Monday.

[Frumple]

... well, probably not directly in the current path. Gonna' be raining a shitton the next few days but the local forecast is saying I'm probably not going to get hit with outright hurricane conditions.

Maybe other people'll get unlucky and it'll stay that way, blech. Always kind of a complicated feeling when you're hoping these things don't hit you, because it usually means they're hitting someone else.

Gods know I don't trust that cat 1 prediction even a goddamn little at this point, though. If it makes landfall as a cat 3+ I'm going to be completely unsurprised.

[McTraveller]

I wonder if the international weather community is going to update hurricane ratings.

My vote would be to add a second designator to represent water damage, in addition to wind damage, rather than to try and combine them into a single number.

Consider how Debbie is a Cat 1 based on wind, but the rain is ridiculous because its forward speed is so slow.

I'd have something like <number><letter> where the number is wind, letter is rain/flooding hazard.

So Debbie would be a category 1D or something, but a high-wind, fast moving storm with less flooding potential might be a category 4B.

I suspect though that they're going to try and "simplify" it too much, if they change it at all...

I'm watching Debbie, because my parents house is in the path... not looking forward to hearing what effects they'll find when they return home after the storm passes.

[Frumple]

I'd... be surprised if they did. The categories work for what they're evaluating (which is primarily wind damage/storm surge/do-you-need-to-get-the-hell-out-the-way).

Flood's its own thing, more or less... and there's not really any category of hurricane that's particularly safe from water hazard if you're in a flood prone area. Even the faster moving ones tend to dump pretty significant amounts of rain.

Or in other words, I'm not sure adding stuff to the cat system would, like... actually do anything of use. The flood risk information's already out there, and including it in the hurricane rating (when they're universally flood risks to begin with) doesn't really... do... anything, heh.

[McTraveller]

I'm sad for humanity, not the least in the USA: apparently because this hurricane season has been unusual, and because it's close to the average peak, but we've not had many storms, we should de-fund NOAA and abolish hurricane season forecasting because this season was so wrong.

Not to mention history has had several other years with slow starts and very busy seasons.

Not to mention if the forecast was for an inactive season and then was super-active people would be screaming for the opposite reason.

Why are people always looking to accuse other people and organizations for being wrong, instead of just "huh, it's unusual year. What can we learn from it?" it's all about "oh they're wasting our tax dollars! The season is bust!"  Forgetting of course that the season goes until November... and we've had years with hurricanes even in December and January.

Why is humanity so... childish?

[StrawBarrel]

Hurricane Francine
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=AL062024

[Eschar]

Let us hope Francine does not interfere with my flight tomorrow.