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Author Topic: Two Fold C9++: (3/15) Town Victory: Mutual KO - no replacement after all  (Read 50490 times)

flabort

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (9/15) Night 3 is a sobering experience
« Reply #420 on: September 12, 2015, 12:39:30 am »

Calculating night results.
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flabort

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (9/15) Night 3 is a sobering experience
« Reply #421 on: September 12, 2015, 01:10:56 am »

Night 3 ends.

The first shock comes when everyone enters the square; the same sword that was used to kill Dampe has been lodged into a crack in a fountain, with FillipK's head stuck on it! The rest of his body is located in his home, where a lot of blood has soaked into his bedspread. As well, TheDarkStar has gone missing, and a slightly longer search locates it torn to shreds near his own home. A summary investigation reveals that while his home appears clean, there is a hidden door in his bookcase, and behind it appears a whole gambling den, and photos of faces of all the well known Godfathers of the city's past history, where TheDarkStar's face has been hung beside them in a grotesque display by his killers.

fillipK has been killed. He was a Vanilla Townie.
TheDarkStar has been killed. He was a Mafia Godfather
.

Day 4 Begins.

FallacyofUrist
Deus Asmoth
Varee
Arcvasti
notquitethere
DoctorMcTaalik
Tea

Not Voting: Tea, Dampe, Fallacy of Urist, Deus Asmoth, Varee, Arcvasti, DoctorMcTaalik,  notquitethere

Day ends Wednesday, Sept 16, 10:00 PM Mountain time, in 70 hours.
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Tea

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #422 on: September 12, 2015, 01:32:50 am »

Setup stuff:
- Mafia must either be Tier 1 or Tier 3 (because there's a dead godfather.) We're confirmably ICTTTTT rn, so Arcvasti would have to be lying and no one else would have anti-mafia power in order for us to be Tier 1. Thus, mafia probably still has a member remaining, and I'm guessing it's a Role Cop b/c Arcvasti hasn't been getting blocked (and it would explain the Comrade kill?)
- If the mafia is not Tier 1, the werewolves have between 3 and 4 pro-werewolf people alive, counting a possible defector. So we're kinda fucked? They can p much lynch whoever the fuck they want.
- I don't think it's possible for the werewolf kill to have been due to inactivity on N2. There were at least two alive. DoctorMcTaalik and Teneb were both active in this subforum during that night, so there's not a combination of people that it'd make sense for.

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Tea

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #423 on: September 12, 2015, 01:40:53 am »

Anyway, I think Deus Asmoth is prob werewolf-aligned with at least one of Doctor/Varee since they effectively protected him by lynching Dampe.
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Tea

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #424 on: September 12, 2015, 01:58:23 am »

The mod said he poked Fallacy and a replacement search seems not to have happened so I'm hoping I'll finally get some answers from two game days ago :|
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notquitethere

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #425 on: September 12, 2015, 06:00:05 am »

I think at this point the game might be solved so long as enough of us stay alive: By their posts, I think Tea and Arca are obviously town, I'm inclined to believe Fallacy's claim as unmotivated if not town:

Town - Tea, Arca, Fallacy, NQT

Which means the remaining werewolves (and mafia? If there's still mafia? I need to check the possible rolls for roles):

Scum - Deus Asmoth, Doctor, Varee
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Varee

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #426 on: September 12, 2015, 01:41:17 pm »

@Tea: Maybe on night two both team target the same target and town is not F'ed?


@NQT,Tea:For some reason I got a feeling that you two are just agreeing with each other on everything? Is that weird?


Another thing is Fillipk,who was voting Teneb(now DA) was kill by mafia. If DA is truly the wolf, shouldnt the wolf be the one doing that kill?


I dont think there 4 wolf left as if that is the case I think flabort would already call the game. so assuming 2-3 wolf in the game there a only a few case left.


If[/size] [/size]Arctivist[/size] [/size]is not lying mean mafia is tier 3 and there one more member left, that also mean there  3 wolf(Tier 1 with defect or tier 3) left. (it atleast a CCCI  with tier 3 so atleast 2 more roles left out there.)
[/size]
Or
If Arc lied then there no more mafia, but it is still possible there mafia defect left in this case.




PPE: Scratch that it is totally possible in 4 wolf case for the wolf to try lynch the defect so the game cant be over yet.
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Tea

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #427 on: September 12, 2015, 02:27:38 pm »

@Varee - I wish you would post more concrete opinions on people. You've had like, five days to do it since you started asking about it and your vague style makes me paranoid of you.

@Tea: Maybe on night two both team target the same target and town is not F'ed?
My point about the Night 2 werewolf kill was because at least one person yesterday (I think DoctorMcTaalik and maybe also fillip) were suggesting that the werewolf team may have just missed out on nightkilling. The mod confirmed on late D2 that the mafia was the only team to target Comrade and acted like I was an idiot for even considering that it involved the wolf team based on the flavor. I was trying to point out that scumhunting based on werewolves being the most inactive people is really unlikely to be accurate and will probably make us miss something. Regardless, my point about the size of the werewolf faction was not actually related to the point about the N2 kill, so this question doesn't make any sense to me. I was trying to point out that town will almost definitely lose if we do not lynch a werewolf today, and that it will be difficult to do so because there's such a high density of people who are pro-werewolf, and that's something to keep in mind when watching interactions.

Uh, I find it sort of weird how tentatively you phrased that - yes, we seem to have similar reads/views on the game state. I've explained mine in detail and I feel like the development of mine are clear! Both of us have been scumreading Teneb since D2 or so and he still is being soft defended by people for having put in the slightest amounts of effort. I think NQT's interactions with people make it fairly unlikely for him to be scum based on the information I have right now. For a while I had been kinda hoping he'd get nightkilled because I felt like his flip would be informative even though I don't want to lynch him? IMO fillipk would've been his most likely scumbuddy though so that flip makes me less interested. I also don't think NQT would've shot fillip last night, and so if anything I think he would be a werewolf. And when I try to think through that I honestly have trouble making sense of who would be scum with him (it makes Arcvasti possible scum I guess since he'd have the help of a coach for the roleclaim? Idfk?). Which is kind of why I'm townreading him.

I don't know why the mafia shot fillipk (to me, he was pretty obviously town and so I just kind of rolled my eyes at it and was like welp, you fucked yourselves over by not shooting a werewolf, wish you hadn't fucked over my faction, too.) I think there's a lot of variables involved in nightkill decisions. For one thing, if someone aligned with TenebAsmoth was purely trying to take out the biggest threat to TenebAsmoth, I would think it would be me or NQT since fillip flip flops on his votes a lot. IMO it was possibly DoctorMcTaalik since he was kinda scumreading him, or it was just because the mafia thought he was townread enough to not get lynched?

In response to the strikethrough: if werewolves are in Tier 2 and mafia is in Tier 3, there's 3 werewolves left and a defector. Even though they could theoretically control the lynch, there would be power roles in play that would balance it, plus what you mentioned (and if the mafia didn't get lynched, they would potentially kill a werewolf at night, and etc.) Even still, two werewolves alive + defector is the best scenario we could be in rn.
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Tea

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #428 on: September 12, 2015, 02:44:21 pm »

I am not married to my vote. There are things that could be discussed that could change my mind. However, what with people I'm townreading continuing to flip town while the person I was begging people not to rule out as scum flipped scum, I'm feeling confident that Deus's slot, who has been my #1 scumread the entire game, is likely scum. I think because there is such a high density of scum alive (hell, there could be more people not aligned with the town around than people that are,) people's choices of votes and reactions should be pretty telling Today if I do take a firm stance. Deus is a smart guy, and though he can't answer for Teneb, he can at least present a viable alternate game state for me to weigh, which I look forward to. I also know that if he is scum, it won't be easy to lynch him, but I'm up for the challenge.
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #429 on: September 12, 2015, 03:58:39 pm »

Hello there, people. Due to unexpected shortages of Teneb, the B12MSF have decreed that I am a viable substitute for your Teneb-related requirements. (I don't humour very well, bear with me).

Arcvasti: you mentioned that you thought there was a doctor in the game because the werewolves didn't kill you. Why do you think the werewolves would have targeted you when your power would benefit them in killing the mafia?

Doctor: I seem to be the only person left alive that you've mentioned being suspicious of recently. Who else do you have a scumread on?

Tea:
Anyway, I think Deus Asmoth is prob werewolf-aligned with at least one of Doctor/Varee since they effectively protected him by lynching Dampe.
Ok, but why? Your original case against him me was that Teneb

* Explained OMGUS for no reason.
I'd disagree with that considering that fillipk didn't seem to see any issue with OMGUSing roo.

* Asked FoU a suspicious question.
This one?
FoU:
Dangit, that's a one-shot seer wasted. (I used it on Kilakan last night.)
Why claim this?
That seems like an entirely reasonable question to ask. Kilakan wasn't under any suspicion at the time and neither was FoU, so claiming his inspect (and that it was a one-shot that he'd used up) served little purpose.

*Had low activity on day 1
He also had a replacement request active during day one, so is it really surprising that his activity was low. As for insulting roo, I don't have any experience with LSP, so I can't comment on whether or not it was an insult or not. One post doesn't equal a couple, though.

It also seems odd that you'd link Varee or the Doctor with me considering that it was your vote that meant that Dampe was going to get lynched rather than me at the end of day 3.


NQT: What makes you inclined to trust FoU? He hasn't done anything since the beginning of day 2 as far as I can see.


PPE:
I am not married to my vote. There are things that could be discussed that could change my mind. However, what with people I'm townreading continuing to flip town while the person I was begging people not to rule out as scum flipped scum, I'm feeling confident that Deus's slot, who has been my #1 scumread the entire game, is likely scum. I think because there is such a high density of scum alive (hell, there could be more people not aligned with the town around than people that are,) people's choices of votes and reactions should be pretty telling Today if I do take a firm stance. Deus is a smart guy, and though he can't answer for Teneb, he can at least present a viable alternate game state for me to weigh, which I look forward to. I also know that if he is scum, it won't be easy to lynch him, but I'm up for the challenge.
This is pinging all kinds of worries for me. Why do you need to point out that your mind can be changed? Then, in reverse order:

Quote
I also know that if he is scum, it won't be easy to lynch him, but I'm up for the challenge.
I've got two votes on me at the start of the day. You may be overselling this.

Quote
...Deus's slot, who has been my #1 scumread the entire game...
False. Your first mention of being suspicious of Teneb was at the start of day 3, and you replaced in during day 2.

Quote
...people I'm townreading continuing to flip town while the person I was begging people not to rule out as scum flipped scum...
Also false. You mentioned not having a town read on TDS during day 2 and had a small amount of interaction with him during day 3, but it certainly never got to the point of indicating a particularly strong scum read on him. You clearly didn't have a strong town read on Dampe considering that you were willing to lynch him before the extend went through.
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Tea

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (10/15) Day 3 reveals one less victim than expected.
« Reply #430 on: September 12, 2015, 04:43:38 pm »

So let's look at what I actually said.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

I think that putting yourself in a teaching role/someone knowledgeable about the site meta seemingly unnecessarily (as he did in his first post) is a way of looking like you're helpful without actually having to put yourself out there? It's information instead of analysis. I also think that the post he spends making fun of roo and the additional post he spends explaining the joke fits into a pattern of behavior of fluffy posts that allow him to skate by - he's not lurky and blatantly scummy enough to get lynched, but he's not helpful enough to get nightkilled.

I don't think the FoU question you quoted is alignment indicative, as I stated above. The question about FoU from Teneb that pinged for me was:

Quote
FoU: Do you think you can tell apart newbie flailing from scum flailing? If so, how? If not, why did you vote for someone who is very much new despite that?

The problem with his activity on both days is not that simple. It's combined with him being active in other games, which makes me think the lurking was strategic. Newer players lurking because they don't know what to say is more null to me.

Quote from: Deus Asmoth
As for insulting roo, I don't have any experience with LSP, so I can't comment on whether or not it was an insult or not. One post doesn't equal a couple, though.

I hypothesize that logic is directly proportional to lack of noobyness.
Not the case. Roo is certainly not a newbie, but is still the subforum version of LSP.

I'm going to confess I have no clue who or what LSP is.
Lord Slowpoke

I don't know who LSP is either, but the context of the first quote makes it pretty obviously an insult of roo's ability to use logic? My point is that he does spend two entire posts talking about that and not actually contributing anything? Which bugged me even more in the context of him asking Moonlit about what Moonlit was going to do about their lack of reads/knowing what to do.

You are just plain wrong about me being the thing that tipped the Dampe lynch? I started the Teneb wagon of Day 3. As I explained in great detail, I was really frustrated by him replacing out because I felt we were getting nowhere. When he replaced out, I pressure voted Dampe because Dampe had a habit of popping up to do one post at the end of the day, and I wanted to see what his reaction would be to being the top wagon at that point (he would probably actually vote someone else or post something telling, but I guess he just flaked?) I then moved my vote back to Teneb (tieing the lynch) when I noticed Day was in a few hours of ending because I thought Teneb was scummier. I only moved back to Dampe so we wouldn't no lynch, but then I and others voted to extend, and I voted Teneb for the rest of the day. Varee and Doctor are the two that I'm not townreading for role reasons that were most attached to the Dampe lynch.

Quote
False. Your first mention of being suspicious of Teneb was at the start of day 3, and you replaced in during day 2.
Uh, no you? I mentioned that I thought he was scummy when talking to and about Arcvasti during Day 2. My priority at the time was more understanding what the fuck was going on then trying to pressure a specific lurker, which you can argue was poor use of my time, but the read was still there. I would've taken basically any lurker counterwagon to Moonlit during D2 since I was leaning town on her, it just happened to be Dampe since someone else had voted for him.

I think that my feelings about Dampe probably come off inconsistent because he's someone I have thought about a lot compared to how much I posted about him? For one thing, the minor mod error made me lean more town on him, and I was voting him mostly to try to get him to do/say something actually alignment indicative. I was both frustrated with him for being the biggest lurker, protective of him because he was the one newbie who never really was given the newbie card, and I kind of had a soft spot for him in general because his posts made me laugh. But I have been laughing to myself on N3 about how I need to avenge Dampe because how much I laughed at his first post made my painstaking notes on D1 worth it. Plus, I was also referring to Moonlit (who I had kinda figured out was a VT or scum and was leaning towards the former before the claim) and fillip (who was a prime suspect D1 and has had random scumreads on him throughout the game.)

I don't think I'm overselling it because people have been suspected a lot in this thread on the basis of "not giving a defense," and giving a defense generally gets the lynch switched off of you (Moonlit may have survived if they hadn't lost their post toward the end of the day.) I also think lynching scum in general is going to be difficult unless they bus, because town would have to be united and correct.
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Tea

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #431 on: September 12, 2015, 04:58:49 pm »

As for the point of my latest post, I guess it's just because I'm really invested in the game and just kind of vomitting my thoughts everywhere? I want the lynch today to be with intention, as I'm not happy with how the past couple of game days have gone, and I want to put all my thoughts out there.

As for DarkStar - when I was reading through D1, he seemed likely mafia to me. Before I read D2 I saw Arcvasti's claim and was kinda like bah humbug idk if I just think his playstyle is scummy and badbecause he was way more obviously scum in our last game but I'm not impressed with any of his posts really? I kind of wanted to vote him in spite of there being an innocent result on him of the scumteam he was more likely to be at certain points, even though I didn't post about it (one reason for that was actually that he voted me instead of Moonlit by accident at one point, and I was kinda laughing to myself that it was a scum fuckup a la last game since he prob felt threatened that I would tunnel him?) And so it's been on my mind, and I definitely told fillip and Varee on two different days that I didn't trust him. So when he flipped godfather I was really happy and felt like I was right. And maybe it's arrogance and I'm just biased toward wanting to see myself in a more positive light, but I genuinely feel like some of my intuitions in this game are working out even though no one fucking posts.
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (10/15) Day 3 reveals one less victim than expected.
« Reply #432 on: September 12, 2015, 05:49:52 pm »

So let's look at what I actually said.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

I think that putting yourself in a teaching role/someone knowledgeable about the site meta seemingly unnecessarily (as he did in his first post) is a way of looking like you're helpful without actually having to put yourself out there? It's information instead of analysis. I also think that the post he spends making fun of roo and the additional post he spends explaining the joke fits into a pattern of behavior of fluffy posts that allow him to skate by - he's not lurky and blatantly scummy enough to get lynched, but he's not helpful enough to get nightkilled.
OMGUS isn't a site-specific meta. It's also entirely reasonable that he's point out that someone was OMGUSing when that person was OMGUSing and didn't seem to have any form of problem with themselves doing it.

Quote
I don't think the FoU question you quoted is alignment indicative, as I stated above. The question about FoU from Teneb that pinged for me was:

Quote
FoU: Do you think you can tell apart newbie flailing from scum flailing? If so, how? If not, why did you vote for someone who is very much new despite that?
I must've missed that one. Is it really scummy that he was behaving aggressively during the RVS?

Quote
The problem with his activity on both days is not that simple. It's combined with him being active in other games, which makes me think the lurking was strategic. Newer players lurking because they don't know what to say is more null to me.
I know that Teneb was very inactive during that BYOP that was running. Not sure whether he was active in other things at the same time, but I don't think he was.

Quote
You are just plain wrong about me being the thing that tipped the Dampe lynch?
I'm not, you know. The votes were tied, you moved your vote onto Dampe, giving him the majority. TDS then voted for him, solidifying that majority. TDS might have voted for Dampe and gotten him lynched regardless, sure, but that's irrelevant. You moving your vote back to Teneb afterwards is also irrelevant.

Quote
Quote
False. Your first mention of being suspicious of Teneb was at the start of day 3, and you replaced in during day 2.
Uh, no you? I mentioned that I thought he was scummy when talking to and about Arcvasti during Day 2.
Quote
I actually thought Teneb's reason for voting [Arcvasti] was more compelling even though I kinda think he's scummy?
That's the only mention of you being suspicious of Teneb during day 2. I guess I missed it since it was buried in the middle of a three paragraph reply to someone else. So yes, while you mentioned being suspicious of him during day 2, it doesn't exactly mesh with your claim that he's been your top scumread for the entire game.
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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #433 on: September 12, 2015, 06:31:37 pm »

The site-specific meta comment was about the fact that he explained OMGUS in terms of the site meta in that last paragraph, but okay? When you choose to reduce everything I just wrote to that, it feels like you're strawmanning me.

I got the impression that Teneb was more active and invested in BYOR than here. I saw him ignore this game while posting relevant things over there. I have explained several times why it is strategically beneficial for him to have lurked/skated here.

Okay, I guess I see what you're saying? Having quoted all the votes on Day 3, I remember now that I voted for Dampe 4 minutes before the Day was set to end when the vote was 3-3. I had been checking my phone repeatedly up to that point hoping someone would change their mind. fillip told me I was being stupid for even tying the vote and I still left it that long. DarkStar showed up seven minutes after deadline and voted Dampe + voted to extend. The mod chose to count this and extended the day, which was not something I could have predicted. I wasn't townreading Dampe to the point that I chose to risk a no lynch with four minutes left, no. Explain what is inconsistent about that?

Regarding Teneb, you're right that that's the only time I mentioned it on Day 2. Perhaps I am confusing my D2 and N2 feelings because I wasn't around for most of D2. But I had scummy vibes from him but didn't finish my catch up enough to push it.
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Arcvasti

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (7/15) Day 4 begins with a dead godfather.
« Reply #434 on: September 12, 2015, 06:41:40 pm »

Arcvasti: you mentioned that you thought there was a doctor in the game because the werewolves didn't kill you. Why do you think the werewolves would have targeted you when your power would benefit them in killing the mafia?

I misread the flavour text of the N2 nightkill and thought Werewolves were the ones who got the single kill and not Mafia.



I investigated Fillipk N3, so that's not particularly helpful to us. No one else really grabbed my attention and I wanted to be sure.



TheDarkStar actually being Mafia. Huh, I had them pegged as potential Mafia pretty early, thus why I investigated them. Trusted my results too much though, apparently. Thanks, Werewolves, it might have been too late for us to sniff them out in time otherwise.



I'm going to be more busy with edumacation and similar, but I will still be fairly activeish near evening in Flabort's timezone. Since we've now got a smaller suspect pool, it should be more difficult to mislynch. Right now[I THINK, at least] we've got probably three scum plus maybe a defector, which means town is outnumbered. Target-rich environment, so yay! :P
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