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[notquitethere]

Moonlit
The reason I'm still voting you is that inability to find people suspicious is a classic scumtell. Town are more generally paranoid, scum have to fake it. Are you saying no one is scummy enough to vote?

Tea

@notquitethere - I kinda skimmed the recent BM and it seems like you're a lot more quiet here than there. I guess I don't have a specific question but I'd like to hear comments on quieter players and/or just on anything that isn't re:Moonlit?

Been busy moving house this week. Will try to post a bit more though... Do you intend to vote before the end of the day?

TDS
Were you planning on letting the whole day go by without making a mark on it?

Teneb
I'm not buying Arcavasti as scum. Their analysis is too on point. Why are they better than all the lurkers?

[fillipk]

@Tea. I honestly have no idea who is mafia, it's probably a lurker since no one strikes me as suspicious.

[Arcvasti]

The only thing that bothers me about it is that if I were a 1-shot seer in his position and saw roo flip, I would have felt like a kid on Christmas, because while there can be multiple full cops, full trackers, etc., there can't be multiple 1-shots of a particular power role, so from his POV roo was confirmed scum from that claim.

That actually makes sense, I didn't know there could be only one 1-shot of a particular power role. Skimmed through the set-up earlier trying to figure out if full cops/seers could be in the same game as 1-shot ones, but didn't notice that tidbit. I'll have to reread that part, but that does seem to point to Fallacy being a one-shot seer and being suspicious of Kilakan rather then being scum and claiming 1-shot seer in order to seem more town. I'll have to reread a few things and I'd ideally like a defense from Fallacy first before I decide, but that punctures one of my arguments against Fallacy.

[Tea]

@Moonlit

• In post #81, you voted roo (who is confirmed scum) because "I dunno!" You later voted fillip it seemed like primarily because you trusted FallacyofUrist, who had just switched his vote from you to fillip. Your suspicions about roo in the beginning-middle of the day turned out to be right. Why, then, are you so much more cautious with your vote Today and your willingness to declare people scum?
• On Day 1, you mentioned that you think it'd benefit the town to be less divided and form kind of a bloc of people who seem town. How do you intend to move forward with this (if you still think it's good play)?
• This is probably a weird question, but humor me. The OP says "No PMing other players; the scum teams will get a mafia-chat on Quicktopic, and the dead will also get a quicktopic." How have you been interpreting that as working (when can they talk and how would it impact their strategy)?
• You seem concerned with finding logical evidence to implicate people as scum. What can you come up with (or quote from someone else, failing that) that you'd think of as logical evidence?
• Now that some time is passed, could you try to explain in more depth why it made you so uncomfortable that roo asked you why you were town (which was somewhere around the post I linked)?

As for my own thoughts:
I actually thought I'd just come up with a reason to clear Moonlit, because the scumteam win conditions listed on the setup wiki page specifically reference their opposing scumteam. However, the sample role PM and my own role PM don't have a win condition, and there's no way to know whether the scum quicktopics reference the win condition in any way. I'm interested in why I don't get more of a sense of growing confidence from Moonlit like we're seeing from fillip and like I'd generally expect, and I do think looking into why Moon is perhaps more cautious than when the game started could be telling. The lack of willingness to take stances from Moonlit makes me feel pretty null about the slot, but I am pretty confident that Moonlit is not mafia due to general interactions with roo but particularly when they said " "Uh, am I supposed to answer this? Guys" in response to roo asking Moonlit if they were town.

I dislike Comrade's vote just now because I am having trouble believing he thinks and would say that the evidence fillip raised is the most compelling thing in the thread, but I guess he isn't going to be here to explain further?

[Tea]

Tea

@notquitethere - I kinda skimmed the recent BM and it seems like you're a lot more quiet here than there. I guess I don't have a specific question but I'd like to hear comments on quieter players and/or just on anything that isn't re:Moonlit?

Been busy moving house this week. Will try to post a bit more though... Do you intend to vote before the end of the day?

Ideally yes? Kinda depends how far I get with my analysis and how much I feel like my vote will matter.

@Arcvasti

• In your post #178, you made case files of sorts on the 3 players that were the most viable lynches at the time. You voiced that you had some concerns that Fallacy and kila could be devious scum. Is there a reason you didn't try to look back at their posts and question any of their points at the time, as you're now doing with Fallacy?
• Can you clarify why it's a scumtell for Fallacy to voice suspicions of a lot of different people?
• How come you didn't ask me about what I thought of your case on Fallacy when you were asking me about fillip's and Comrade's?
• You've gone into a lot of depth analyzing the nightkills based on who died yesterday. I was curious if you had formed any opinions based on people's behavior surrounding the dead players (with confirmed alignments) that are less based around the kills? (Who is likely to be scum with roo, who isn't, what useful points did the dead town raise, etc.)?

My own thoughts:
I also noted a possible connection between roo and Arcv based on #153 just because I've found it a common scum tactic when a scumbuddy is taking some heat to acknowledge the case and agree with it somewhat but then actually vote another player (in this case, Moonlit.) A couple of the questions I've asked above reflect some questions I have about Arcv's lack of confidence with presenting unpopular opinions. I also think that the focus on the pretty, color-coded analysis of nightkills can be a tactic to avoid making actual conclusions about people's behavior and a way of looking like you're doing something useful w/out actually doing so.

That said, I appreciate the original thought that seems to be applied to building the Fallacy case even though a lot of people are townreading him. I think that Arc's recent post in which they come to the realization that Fallacy's claim is riskier than they had originally thought based on my related analysis sounds pretty genuine. Arc clearly actually thought through my points and how it applied to their view of the game: it reflected interest in finding the truth of this game. When they defend themselves and state things like that they want to get as much of their thoughts out as they can so that people can use them even if they die, I think that's town-motivated and I think that it's reflected in their posts (their writing style, their claim, etc.)

[fillipk]

To be honest I forgot you weren't on so all my bad

[Comrade Shamrock]

Tea:
Hope you didn't miss my question.

As for voting moonlit, let me put it this way. We had a tie in the votes between moonlit and arc. Moonlit also hadn't cast a vote so if I withdrew mine and left it out of play, Moonlit could have tied the vote by either voting arc or fallacy. Leaving us with no real information tomorrow except nk speculation and a rehash of today's events. The day ends around 4am for me and I wasn't sure when I got home whether I would able to dredge my mind into looking at this. Starting up another analysis and case when I wasn't there and so close to the day's end would have been pointless especially since I wouldn't be around to push it. It also would have left yet another person which a vote for would have tied up the lynch.

I'm willing to wait and see what happens regarding Arc considering his claim. But I don't believe in his case against Fallacy. I could be wrong but I have to wait and see. Moonlit is the best option at the moment.

Everyone:
I will be going to college orientation tomorrow it will take up most of the day so be aware if you extend the day I won't be available for most of tomorrow.


PPE:
Moonlit:
Read the part addressed to tea for my elaborated reasoning.

[Comrade Shamrock]

Moonlit:
Out of the three possible lynches suggested one of which was by me, I now feel you are the best choice.

Arcvasti, he has been offered sound and solid reasoning for each of my points brought to him and his claim makes me wary.

Fallacy, the case against him seems to be built on flimsy foundations. It relies on speculation from the night kill. Another seems to be hypocrisy. Then again what seems logical to one mind seems silly in another.

We get more info from a lynch than a night kill. We can't question people on their motives for a NK but we can for a lynch and I'm making sure someone gets hung and you don't in self preservation tie the lynch. I would do it in your place no matter my alignment.

Fallacy:
Can you give us the wording of your result on killakan?

[Tea]

Comrade, I noticed your question but I don't think it's a priority so I'm not responding yet.

@Moonlit

• In post #81, you voted roo (who is confirmed scum) because "I dunno!" You later voted fillip it seemed like primarily because you trusted FallacyofUrist, who had just switched his vote from you to fillip. Your suspicions about roo in the beginning-middle of the day turned out to be right. Why, then, are you so much more cautious with your vote Today and your willingness to declare people scum?
• On Day 1, you mentioned that you think it'd benefit the town to be less divided and form kind of a bloc of people who seem town. How do you intend to move forward with this (if you still think it's good play)?
• This is probably a weird question, but humor me. The OP says "No PMing other players; the scum teams will get a mafia-chat on Quicktopic, and the dead will also get a quicktopic." How have you been interpreting that as working (when can they talk and how would it impact their strategy)?
• You seem concerned with finding logical evidence to implicate people as scum. What can you come up with (or quote from someone else, failing that) that you'd think of as logical evidence?
• Now that some time is passed, could you try to explain in more depth why it made you so uncomfortable that roo asked you why you were town (which was somewhere around the post I linked)?

Tea
I guess you could call it suspicious. It was basically a random vote... though I did not know it was a good idea to do that at the time. And no, that's not another reference to my new-ness, filipk.
And... for the quicktopic question:
I think it really depends on whose scum. I mean... not knowing people that well hurts my predictions a good bit.
I don't intend to move forward with my other thingy, as 1. mostly forgot about it, and 2) doesn't seem like it'll happen.

My first point was that I would like to know why you seem afraid to vote with weak reasons in light of how the game has gone thus far. I don't know if that's suspicious or not because I don't know the reason behind it, but you don't need to preemptively admit that it can be seen as suspicious? My point with the quicktopic is that you started talking pretty early on about how scum could be plotting in their quicktopic, I think before anyone else had mentioned the possibility, and I guess I was surprised with how far you'd taken that thought process considering you're new. I had it mod confirmed that scum can daytalk at any time (which I'm not sure is objectively clear from the first post), which means that a reason you could've been thinking about the possibility of scum talk is because you were taking part in it. I don't understand why you're still ignoring the fourth point.

I agree with (most of) you that Arcvasti does not seem like scum. I've already quoted the post I'm referring to above this (in the same post). If TheDarkStar turns out to be Mafia, which isn't too likely, Arcvasti's definitely lying. I almost think we should lynch TheDarkStar because of this. Thing is, if Arcvasti's scum, he chose well. TheDarkStar doesn't seem to be dying soon, so we'll have no proof from that.

This would probably be a poor play because DarkStar could be not mafia and Arcvasti could still be a member of either scum faction.

[Arcvasti]

@Arcvasti

• In your post #178, you made case files of sorts on the 3 players that were the most viable lynches at the time. You voiced that you had some concerns that Fallacy and kila could be devious scum. Is there a reason you didn't try to look back at their posts and question any of their points at the time, as you're now doing with Fallacy?
• Can you clarify why it's a scumtell for Fallacy to voice suspicions of a lot of different people?
• How come you didn't ask me about what I thought of your case on Fallacy when you were asking me about fillip's and Comrade's?
• You've gone into a lot of depth analyzing the nightkills based on who died yesterday. I was curious if you had formed any opinions based on people's behavior surrounding the dead players (with confirmed alignments) that are less based around the kills? (Who is likely to be scum with roo, who isn't, what useful points did the dead town raise, etc.)?

- Mostly because neither of them had done anything suspicious enough at that time to warrant that and I didn't believe they were in fact viable lynch candidates at that time because neither of them had demonstrated enough scumtells or been semi-implicated via circumstantial evidence.
- It seemed to me that Fallacy changed their opinions too readily and in near-lockstep with the current public opinion. Taken on its own, that means nothing, but I find it sort of suspicious in context with other suspicious stuff.
- Because I am still the only person actually voting Fallacy right now[And I'm sort of having doubts anyways]. I was going more for bandwagon analysis with multiple people supporting a case.
- I'll take a look. Fillipk/The Moonlit Shadow have both done some stuff, but preliminary glancing indicates it is of questionable quality.


With regards to The Moonlit Shadow:

Everyone
I like how Comrade Shamrock points out that he could plausibly be scum. Also, notice how he has no defense that he isn't scum.

Yeah nope. FallacyofUrist isn't responding, presumably because edumacation and such, and I honestly don't have enough evidence to want to lynch them at this point. I was kinda relying on them making mistakes defending themselves so I'd have more evidence one way or the other, but I'm not getting that.

Unvote all

YOU, on the other hand, have just incriminated yourself. Attacking the people persecuting you seems like a pretty obvious scumtell and you were sort of scummy D1 too, but we let you off because you pulled the noob card. I see no reason to do that twice. You are right in that there are only three major suspects right now: Me, FallacyofUrist and you. And there's Dampe, but that case is hella flimsy. I know I'm not a good lynch because I'm useful, Fallacy is out of the question for the above reasons and Dampe is less scummy then you.

The Moonlit Shadow

Justify yourself, and not via semi-blindly attacking people. Don't panic. Look at my defense for an example of the proper format, probably minus the hasty roleclaim near the end. If you ARE going to die, then try to make your death not in vain. Its not going to be in vain anyways, because we can analyze who voted you and why to potentially find scum, but if there's any silver lining to getting lynched, find it.


re: TheDarkStar being scum of any flavour: I doubt it. They were mostly only notable because, like the late Persus13, they defended Roo, who was Mafia. That's why I investigated them in the first place[Eerily echoing the Werewolves' decision to nightkill Persus13]. And defending Mafia doesn't seem to be conducive to being a Werewolf. It wouldn't have seemed terribly scummy or out of place to jump on Roo's bandwagon, they were hella suspicious anyways and they'd have either taken out Town or Mafia, both of which would have benefited Werewolves. Honestly, my goal with the roleclaiming was because I was really sure TheDarkStar was innocent for the above reaons plus mystic Cop powers and being confirmed as a Town Cop would have ensured that they wouldn't have been mislynched at some point in the future.

[Dampe]

I'm pretty overloaded with schoolwork, but I'm still in on this.
Unless I state otherwise, just add my vote to whoever has the most votes to be lynched in a day.

[Tea]

hi Dampe. How much have you read so far?

[fillipk]

I'm pretty overloaded with schoolwork, but I'm still in on this.
Unless I state otherwise, just add my vote to whoever has the most votes to be lynched in a day.

i feel like you are super busy but that seems kind of scummy, don't know too much about prior experience though

[Tea]

@Moonlit- You also ignored/missed my question about Dampe. Is there a reason you respond to every single point made about him?

Spoiler: @Arcvasti (click to show/hide)

 Regarding your nightkill analysis, I don't think it's a bad thing in general to think about why kills happened, but I think that what you collected is limited in its usefulness by a few things. If you don't take the idea that "mafia are trying to go after good town players" and try to apply it to "what sort of players do I think are more likely to do that?" then I guess I don't get the point of it, since it's not impacting your actual suspicions of people at all. Both Persus13 and DarkStar defended roo for meta reasons, for instance, but Persus13 was more active, posted more content, and probably has a better reputation as a player - I see that as playing more into the kill than whether Dampe is on the werewolf team. (Since there's at least two wolves alive and I personally have trouble imagining that Dampe would overrule whoever else he would be scum with and demand a Persus kill, lol?) If anything, it makes me think there might be someone who has experience playing with Persus on the wolf team, or that fillip is a wolf b/c Persus suspected him.

also @Arcvasti - Assuming your claim is true, DarkStar is statistically less likely to be scum than other ppl (and I'm not interested in lynching him.) But he's not posted enough for me to feel confident I can read him. I do think that if he is a werewolf, it is possible that he in trying to emulate his town play, would defend roo, particularly if there are people in the game that have played with him and roo before multiple times (Persus13, notquitethere, 4maskwolf?) that would have meta about how those two interact.

@FallacyofUrist

• Your post #127 is weird to me, particularly in light of #129 in which you reference that no lynch on Day 1 is horrible. Why did you make such a big deal out of "saving roo" from a "pointless lynch" by tying up the votes while acknowledging that that was horrible play?
• What was your reaction to roo's claim based on your own role? You continued to make comments like that if roo said things that made sense, you would back off and asking if roo thought they were being objectively scummy.
• What was the point of your question in post #143?
• In post #165, you say to fillip that just saying you are town is not a good enough defense, as other people have told you. I was wondering if the people that did this in your past game(s) were town or scum, and how that informs your thoughts?
• What do *you* make of the wagons yesterday, since you indicated an interest in some of the smaller ones?
• It's Day 2 now, and you've expressed that newbies and people who flail shouldn't get free passes now. Mind giving updated thoughts?

I have a lot of feelings about this guy, probably because he has the most posts. While he was around he seemed to be really enjoying being in a cheerleading/teaching role for new players and having so many people telling him that he made sense (since I get the impression that he's somewhat new himself and was widely suspected in a past game here.) I think he makes a lot of filler posts in which he buddies up to people, has silly conversations with the mod, and praises ~Logic and Reason~, which kinda reminds me of what I do when I'm scum and bored but could also just be an expression of how he feels relatively more comfortable than he has in the past. He seems protective of newer players, probably because he can relate to them. I find this all kind of hard to parse, but I do think the buddying puts him in a position to manipulate fillip and Moonlit, and I think an attempt was made for that w/ Arcv as he described their analysis as "very very good" at one point. I do get the impression that he's genuinely annoyed people aren't posting and is trying to be a facillitator to keep the game from dying. But I also think he didn't make much effort to engage with players like Comrade, Captain, etc. and didn't really do much to challenge the narrative that the lynch had to be between fillip, Moon and roo (and I guess Varee?)

[Tea]

@Mod- We really need a vote count and an accurate deadline timer. It's been days.