Welp. The sequel to the most weirdly successful mission of all time (3 rookies + one specialist, destroy the relay on legendary, perfect win) was basically losing the campaign in a single turn.
See when he got his advance copy of Xcom 2 Beaglerush would do this thing where he stuck one squad member out in the open and had everyone else overwatch on a roof to set up perfect ambushes. Firaxis noticed this and introduced their own fix: if the squad leaves concealment on an enemy turn, sometimes the enemy just shoots you. This has never happened to me before.
So, I'm just doing my own thing in the next mission, a VIP rescue mission. See a patrol, sidestep a patrol, see second patrol on objective. Set up a kill on that pod, but it moves so I go closer. See a third patrol, "oh, better not reveal till I get those guys out of sight". First patrol comes back, reveals squad, all three pods trigger, third pod shoots during their own turn and double crits the specialist from the previous mission. This leaves a grenadier, a sniper, and a rookie, all flanked. No, not flanked, encircled, by this ridiculous crescent formation.
...I still won. I'm going to lose the caimpaign, but god dammit I won the mission.
Edit: What happens if I fail a retaliation strike and I haven't contacted anyone?