@Calem - no you don't need a duchy. I've had a king + barony before. Most likely you're missing the value of roads? Also the "offerings" are not trade - but a separate type of offering. If you got those, then it's probably just a wait game.
@Turkey XIII - cheese can melt? AWESOME! melted-cheese-filled floors is now in the future of dwarfy projects.
Ast, my singular guard is getting some awesome training right now without a danger room. Since my tower of dropping goblins and not killing them right off, I placed his training room on the same floor. Now they fall, break half the bones in their bodies, and instantly get shot repeatedly by a mediocre marksdwarf. If they move, they'll also get hit by mediocre traps filled with iron, silver, and copper weapons of their comrades. man... If I were these goblins I'd cease to ambush this fort. it'd be siege or give up. And really - I didn't start this war, so why would continue?
btw, fps is lower than before not because of all the crap I haven't destroyed yet. It's because of the ambushers walking around unseen I'm pretty sure. The elves revealed a lot, I captured them in cages, and fps was up for a few dwarf months.
but yeah... goblins in traps are cluttering my fort all over the place. I can't kill them fast enough.
EDIT: one month later - got a siege. Of goblins? of course not, humans. bah... stupid humans.