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[Mephansteras]

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
Peradon: Persus13, TheDarkStar
TheDarkStar: Peradon


Day ends ~5pm Pacific Today. There is one possible Extension remaining this day.


Cheeetar has replaced in for Cheesecake. If he wishes an Extension to get caught up on the game it will be granted.

[Cheeetar]

Hi guys, I'm Cheesecake! I might need an extension, actually, both to plan my vote and any subsequent action I'll be taking. It is ~2:30 am for me, so I can't guarantee I'll be able to spend much of the time until the (current) deadline on anything but sleeping.

[birdy51]

Pfp. Extend.

I will second that extension request for ye. Last night was a wash, and any extra time could be handy.

[Mephansteras]

Day has been Extended to ~5pm Pacific Thursday.

[flabort]

Well, even though the first extend today didn't get used, I would have thirded the extend because I'm very interested in hearing what Persus, Tiruin, Roo, Jack, etc have to say and want to give them the chance to post before the day ends.

Hi cheeetar!

[blackmagechill]

This is looking really good. Can I get a spoil spec?

I can...although, are you sure you wouldn't rather be added to the replacement queue?

Nah, just the spoil spec. I don't believe you'll need any more replacements this late.

[Cheeetar]

Hi Birdy51! Of the four people you suspected were scum, one was a third party and two were town. You voted for none of them. Do you still read Persus13 as scum, and if so, why aren't you voting for him?

Everyone: For this game mode, when is the ideal time to mass claim and reveal the results of night actions?

[birdy51]

---

A Response to Flabort's Question.

What should we do, in your opinion, if you die during the night but there is still a grave disturbed? What if your guard dies in the night instead?

Hrmm. Not many characters mess with dead bodies. There are a few, but not many.

This is an odd question. If a grave is disturbed and I am dead, I assume that those would be two separate occurrences. Regardless, I have hard time imagining anything else will be playing with Graves, aside from a Ghoul, a second Necromancer, or a Warlock. However, you haven't mentioned any graves being tampered with last night and the kills heavily favored the "Rot" Cult and a Monster Hunter. I can only assume that a Ghoul doesn't exist, leaving a Warlock as the only possibility that comes to mind. They're usually benign, so I don't think it would make it necessary to take any special action.

If my Guard dies, then we'll have to rely on whatever flavor we get. I should hope that as Sexton you'd receive some information on the alignment, but I'm not holding my breath. Even the priests themselves don't really know for certain. We'd just have to wait and see whether my Piety theory worked out.

---

A Question Asked

Persus13: Why do you have Peradon voted right now? Could elaborate on the reasoning behind your vote?

---

A Request

All: I'm a bit worried right now, mostly due to a severe dearth of voting activity. Many different ideas were extended today, and it's important to act upon them.

Even if you're just now getting into it or are new to the scene, I'd like to see some kind of vote or a reason you're not voting.

[birdy51]

Hi Birdy51! Of the four people you suspected were scum, one was a third party and two were town. You voted for none of them. Do you still read Persus13 as scum, and if so, why aren't you voting for him?

Everyone: For this game mode, when is the ideal time to mass claim and reveal the results of night actions?

Already explained this. I am the Town Priest. I'd prefer to keep hands off lynches in order to not stain my hands with someone innocent in case Piety is effected by lynchings and mislynchings. As for Persus13, I'm still interested in pursuing that course of action, as evidenced by the post I was just preparing.

[birdy51]

And forgot to answer the second question in my haste...

The ideal time for any claim is when the information that was gleaned from the Night is pertinent to be shared. No later, no less.

Also... A curiosity question.

Cheetar: How do you prefer going after your suspects? One at a time or as one mass conglomerate?

[Jack A T]

Chaoulli analysis done.  Time to play.

Peradon: Alright.  Now, why did you announce your 2/3rds chance yesterday (probably a more useful question than 'why do these scenarios not apply here')?  I don't recall (I may be wrong) you doing so in previous games.

I did so here here and... somewhere else, I think. I cant remember where.

Peradon: Thank you for this information.  It's actually very helpful.

Now, I was asking about the choice to give a specific number (the 2/3rds chance), which you did not do in either linked post.  What you do give in the linked posts, though, is material that makes your Cheesecake case look much more contrived.  In particular, the Cult Mafia 2 post is quite interesting (bolding mine):

(1)That OSG is the cultist, and he is trying to pin something on me, based on an RVS vote.
(2)That OSG is Town, and he legitimately thought that an RVS vote is scummy if it is placed on top of an existing post. (I find this to be less likely; I have seen what OSG plays like, and he knows better.)
(3)That OSG is either Town or the Cultist, and was trying to do a gambit. (This also is less likely, mainly because of I have never seen OSG do any gambits...)

So, you see, granted that OSG's vote was legitimate, there are only two possibilities; one of them being that he is Scum, the other that he is stupid town. I dont think OSG is stupid town, thus he is probably Scum.

You weren't treating these options as equally likely.  You were quite explicitly integrating knowledge you had beyond the scenarios to weight the scenarios.  The same goes for your linked CYOMs post, where you integrate Shakerag's experience to weight the scenarios.

So, let's go back to an earlier topic of discussion: why did you treat the Cheesecake scenarios as equally likely and stop your analysis there?  Clearly not because that's how you handle your scenario analysis, as it isn't.

Everyone: For this game mode, when is the ideal time to mass claim and reveal the results of night actions?

Cheeetar: For massclaims, generally, in the past, at least a few days in has been popular.  Not D2.  Revealing night action results: Before you're lynched, when their value at the time would significantly outweigh keeping your powers secret for longer, and/or on massclaim (can't really get much more specific than that).

Any thoughts on the main lynch pushes so far D1 and D2?

[Peradon]

Chaoulli analysis done.  Time to play.

Peradon: Alright.  Now, why did you announce your 2/3rds chance yesterday (probably a more useful question than 'why do these scenarios not apply here')?  I don't recall (I may be wrong) you doing so in previous games.

I did so here here and... somewhere else, I think. I cant remember where.

Peradon: Thank you for this information.  It's actually very helpful.

Now, I was asking about the choice to give a specific number (the 2/3rds chance), which you did not do in either linked post.  What you do give in the linked posts, though, is material that makes your Cheesecake case look much more contrived.  In particular, the Cult Mafia 2 post is quite interesting (bolding mine):

(1)That OSG is the cultist, and he is trying to pin something on me, based on an RVS vote.
(2)That OSG is Town, and he legitimately thought that an RVS vote is scummy if it is placed on top of an existing post. (I find this to be less likely; I have seen what OSG plays like, and he knows better.)
(3)That OSG is either Town or the Cultist, and was trying to do a gambit. (This also is less likely, mainly because of I have never seen OSG do any gambits...)

So, you see, granted that OSG's vote was legitimate, there are only two possibilities; one of them being that he is Scum, the other that he is stupid town. I dont think OSG is stupid town, thus he is probably Scum.

You weren't treating these options as equally likely.  You were quite explicitly integrating knowledge you had beyond the scenarios to weight the scenarios.  The same goes for your linked CYOMs post, where you integrate Shakerag's experience to weight the scenarios.

So, let's go back to an earlier topic of discussion: why did you treat the Cheesecake scenarios as equally likely and stop your analysis there?  Clearly not because that's how you handle your scenario analysis, as it isn't.

Because I dont see how any of them could be less likely than the others. I have no Meta to compare against, and cheesecake has no experience, so I cant put that in. I guess the only thing I could have put in, was a lack of experience, but that really doesnt work very well.

Counter question: Why do you find this contrived? Do you find it unlikely that I simply didn't have any extra information to use that would modify the chances?

[flabort]

Everyone: For this game mode, when is the ideal time to mass claim and reveal the results of night actions?

Simple answer: When it would most benefit the town, or appear to if you're scum.

Long answer: When claiming or revealing would do any of the following: change the vote (such as people NOT voting YOU for avoiding a mass claim, or swinging the vote to someone you inspected), solidify a defense, could be used as evidence against somebody, or when they're mixed with the rest during a mass claim and used as part of aggregate evidence for the town's benefit.
Alternatively, if you are scum, when it can be used to change the vote, defend yourself or your partner(s), be used as (false) evidence against somebody, or to throw off any aggregate evidence gained from a mass claim. So basically the same times for the wrong reasons.

[Peradon]

Everyone: For this game mode, when is the ideal time to mass claim and reveal the results of night actions?

I'm not sure exactly. LyLo and MyLo for sure, but before that, I have no idea.

[flabort]

Everyone: For this game mode, when is the ideal time to mass claim and reveal the results of night actions?

I'm not sure exactly. LyLo and MyLo for sure, but before that, I have no idea.

Ah, but how do you define LyLo and MyLo when you don't know how many scum there are and how many kills they possess?

Here's hoping for some more flavor to indicate, that, though.