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Author Topic: Supernatural 8 - Game over! Town Victory  (Read 68828 times)

birdy51

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #255 on: June 07, 2015, 11:32:58 am »

Alright. Something came up on my end that I'd like to sort through first before anything else. I'll still see what I can do about an actual post later, but I need to de-stress a bit first.
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Jack A T

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #256 on: June 07, 2015, 01:02:39 pm »

Jack A T: Does this feel like typical day 2 to you, or do you also sense something is off?
flabort: I missed this question earlier, sorry.  I don't tend to feel strange feelings about days.  Besides, what is a 'typical day 2'?  Also, why shove the dead into your read list?  Do also define tunneling, please.

I wouldn't be so quick to rule that there isn't a Vampire scumteam.
Persus13: Why not?  As for the massclaim, no thanks.

TDS: What do you think of your remaining end of D1 targets (aside from Peradon) now?

Peradon: Chance does not mean equal chance.  I wasn't even talking about truly hidden variables, but things we have at minimum a good idea of (# of scum at the start of the game is going to be well less than 50%, scumteam less than 33%, for instance).  Things that can be integrated into analysis reasonably easily, at the cost of having Fancy Solid Numbers.

Or you can just keep running around with a method that easily shows everyone to be more likely scum than not, and can easily manufacture claims against anyone.
I could do this with everyone and get similar results.  Do you see any missing scenarios, or flaws in the method?  Anything wrong with this?

In fact, I'd love to see explanations of why each of the scum scenarios doesn't apply in your case.  TDS has a point about your sudden addition of non-scenario factors to your method.

Alright. Something came up on my end that I'd like to sort through first before anything else. I'll still see what I can do about an actual post later, but I need to de-stress a bit first.
birdy51: Have an amusing thing.
Persus13 - [...] His defense of Cheesecake still bothers me in that he still is open to the idea that Cheesecake is scum, but is unwilling to vote for him. This strikes me as paradoxical, and is by far my largest beef with him.
Please clarify, as I don't see the logic here.  Is it not normal for players to not be willing to vote for everyone they're open to the idea of being scum?  Where is the paradox?

One more question: under what circumstances would you vote?  Tie at the end of the day?
You're a Town Guardsmen, a role that has not been given to scum once in the past seven games of Supernatural. Converted yes, given out from the start, no. Therefore, I can only assume that this Supernatural continues the pattern. As such, it's only logical to assume you are Town.
You can't safely assume any town role will be given out exclusively to town in a Meph game.  Kind of key to his Mafia design approach.

Just to be clear, though...
Meph: Can scum have guards without converting them?
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Mephansteras

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5pm
« Reply #257 on: June 07, 2015, 01:33:15 pm »

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@Jack A T: Yes. Guards are not a restricted role.
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flabort

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #258 on: June 07, 2015, 05:38:39 pm »

Jack A T: Does this feel like typical day 2 to you, or do you also sense something is off?
flabort: I missed this question earlier, sorry.  I don't tend to feel strange feelings about days.  Besides, what is a 'typical day 2'?  Also, why shove the dead into your read list?  Do also define tunneling, please.
I define a typical day 2 as a day where the town starts to get a feel for who actually is scum and who's not, where at least one person talks about something completely unexpected or off topic, and there's a feeling of "not-cocky-ness" as most of the town is nervous. It seems far too many people are acting cocky right now, which is giving me a strange feeling.

I put everyone in my reads list in the order of how many posts they had, then noticed I had done a read on Deus (seemed mostly town). So I revised my read on him to note that he was dead, and then felt like I was leaving the other two out and added them too, which is why their entries are even shorter.

Tunneling (Tun - uh - ling) verb
1) The act of focusing on one person to the point where your ability to focus on other people is detrimentally affected or non-existant.
2) Ignoring other possibilities while convincing yourself that one specific person HAS to be scum.
3) Rarely, the act of questioning a single person exclusively to determine their alignment. Usually overlaps with definitions 1 and 2.
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Peradon

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #259 on: June 07, 2015, 07:27:55 pm »

Peradon: Chance does not mean equal chance.  I wasn't even talking about truly hidden variables, but things we have at minimum a good idea of (# of scum at the start of the game is going to be well less than 50%, scumteam less than 33%, for instance).  Things that can be integrated into analysis reasonably easily, at the cost of having Fancy Solid Numbers.

Or you can just keep running around with a method that easily shows everyone to be more likely scum than not, and can easily manufacture claims against anyone.
I could do this with everyone and get similar results.  Do you see any missing scenarios, or flaws in the method?  Anything wrong with this?

In fact, I'd love to see explanations of why each of the scum scenarios doesn't apply in your case.  TDS has a point about your sudden addition of non-scenario factors to your method.
That's... actually a good point. I see what you mean...

Man...... You just absolutely destroyed my line of thinking. I need to rethink thinking.





Peradon: First: this is basically the classic "Well, it could happen or it could not happen, so it must be a 50% chance" error.  While you don't have much information to base your guess of the chance on, you could have at least taken into account some of what we do know.  There's no reason whatsoever to think every outcome in the sample space is equally likely, and some good reasons (the lower number of scum than town in any game, the historic dubiousness of 'scumslips') not to.  There is information to get you beyond "eh, all outcomes have the same probability" in a Bayesian handling of scumhood chance.  To not take it into account in your analysis, while making it easier to give solid numbers, will lead you to silliness and wrongness.

Second: You can easily come up with more plausible scum scenarios for anyone than town.  There's usually only one really plausible scenario explaining any action as town (the guy's telling the truth and did things to catch scum), though there are a few rare exceptions, and more plausible scenarios for scum.  I can easily pull together a you-style scenario analysis that shows every single player is more likely than not scum, but that would be ridiculous.

Anyway, what do you think of the arguments to lynch Cheesecake now?
I disagree. Yes, there are hidden variables that we dont know about, but thats why its chance. If we knew all hidden variables, we could figure out everything about cheesecake. But we dont, thus why its chance.

Anything that is not that straightforward that is a town action, qualifies as a Gambit in my book. I dont think that Cheesecake would be pulling a gambit, being new to the game, though that is just speculation.

On the cheesecake lynch now, I dont think its a scumslip on his part, because it doesnt look like we have a cult on our hands. If we did, I would be extremely suspicious of him, enough to warrant a vote.

For those of you who say I havent been investigating(Glares at flabort), this is how I investigate. I look at possible scenarios and motives of the person I suspect, and judge how many can be scum-motived and how many can be town-motivated. Then depending on their scumslips or other such things, I'll vote for them. So dont you say I havent been investigating, its just that I dont publicize everything thought I have, only the ones I think are worth mentioning. Combine this with the fact that I dont have as much time in the day devoted to typing up responses as you guys, you get short posts and low post count.
Peradon. The reasoning behind voting for Cheesecake still doesn't make much sense. You said that you carefully considered how scummy people were based on their actions, but your reasoning yesterday didn't argue that at all. Instead, it assumed that all scenarios were equally likely and used that to show that Cheesecake was probably scum. Why the discrepancy?

I did say that, but I also said that I looked at the possible motives. You're taking that out of context.

On the Birdy claim: Well, that is interesting. What makes you so sure that OSG is the Guard? I also visited you last night, so how do know it wasnt me?

Not that it was me, but I think you're being a little too trusting of OSG right now.

Why did you FOS when the question is directed to Birdy? Why did you FOS and not vote, and why is your observation a reason to vote?

1. It wasnt a question directed at him, just concerning events related to his claim.
2. Because it is mainly speculation, and not enough for me to warrant a vote.
3. It isnt a reason to vote, which is why I didnt vote and used an FOS.

Everyone: Since some people seem dead set on revealing part if not all of their and everyone else's roles, what are your thoughts on a mass claim? Personally I think it's too early since we may face a Cult, but I want to know your thoughts.
I dont think we're up against a Cult, but I dont think mass-claiming right now would be a good idea.

Why not?
Because I dont want to reveal my role right now. Is that suspicious to you?



I need to rethink some things here.....
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birdy51

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #260 on: June 07, 2015, 08:32:23 pm »

birdy51: Have an amusing thing.
Persus13 - [...] His defense of Cheesecake still bothers me in that he still is open to the idea that Cheesecake is scum, but is unwilling to vote for him. This strikes me as paradoxical, and is by far my largest beef with him.
Please clarify, as I don't see the logic here.  Is it not normal for players to not be willing to vote for everyone they're open to the idea of being scum?  Where is the paradox?

Yeah. It's not much of a paradox, is it? What bothered me then was that I thought he was going against his scum hunting instincts in favor of leaving Cheesecake around for later. But frankly, I'm fairly certain that I was more paranoid of Persus13 then anything else, especially in light of the lack of a conversion cult.

One more question: under what circumstances would you vote?  Tie at the end of the day?
You're a Town Guardsmen, a role that has not been given to scum once in the past seven games of Supernatural. Converted yes, given out from the start, no. Therefore, I can only assume that this Supernatural continues the pattern. As such, it's only logical to assume you are Town.
You can't safely assume any town role will be given out exclusively to town in a Meph game.  Kind of key to his Mafia design approach.

Just to be clear, though...
Meph: Can scum have guards without converting them?

Quote
@Jack A T: Yes. Guards are not a restricted role.

Blargh. Well then. This comes as a surprise to me. Regardless, I am being too trusting of OSG since that's the case. I'll have to redefine how I view him. Per the question of when I would lynch, the answer is I don't know. On Tuesday, I'm fairly certain I have an event that again runs to the end of Day, so if I do stick to a vote, it'll have to be with the intention of making it last. It's one of those things I need to think about.

How do you manage to get something suspicious out of Epenguin's single RVS post?

I didn't. The basis of my suspicion is on Roo's flimsy vote only a few posts later after I pushed him for a word. This was before I voted for Epenguin mind you. The combination of the two events makes me slightly curious if it wasn't a chainsaw defense. Further, it's not just one RVS question, but a long reign of radio silence. It's unnerving and bothersome. Hearing nothing from Tiruin causes me to pause, since I know going into the game as scum is daunting.

Of course, I kinda need to let her actually post once or twice before I leap down her throat. So for now, it's just unfounded suspicion and distrust.


Quote
'm not really sure how you want me to respond to this one. So instead of myself  giving a half baked response, I'd like you to clarify just what you're asking here.
Would you agree or disagree that you misinterpreted what I was saying about you?

I disagree. I maintain that you seemed to have had suspicions of me Day 1, but those suspicions didn't linger to Day 2, where your comments struck me as being out of place and out of character.

But, on the matter of my case against you, I will admit to one mistake. I framed a helluva lot of accusations against you, but I asked a grand total of only one single question. Now, I don't know about you, but that's a pretty shitty way of doing things. Then it suddenly struck me this morning. I haven't given you any places of explaining your half of the story and immediately jumped to the conclusion that you are scum. For that I apologize. Now I'm going to correct that mistake.

1). What stopped Day 1 Flabort from making his own reads? In connection to this question, why did you wait until Day 2 and my request to reformulate everything?

I don't want to needlessly vote Cheesecake when there's already a lot of pressure on him for one single slip, when there's a slim possibility that he could be telling the truth at this stage, especially given that I pointed out the thing that caused everyone to wagon on him; I feel like I already cast a dark shadow of doom onto him, and my vote is therefor already on him; but it's not, so I can save it to vote someone else.

Quote
I was giving him the benefit of the doubt; he is a novice after all. I was not flaunting that fact. I was pointing out that I felt bad for creating "cultgate 2015" as somebody so eloquently put it, and marking him as not completely innocent yet. Yes, I guess you could call it exposing, but it was not my intention to create an out-of-control wagon. Hence why I voted someone else; someone who at the time I found more suspicious anyways.

2). Note the dissonance between these two posts. Were you really giving him the benefit of the doubt?

3). Is seriousness indicative of a Townie alignment? Further, is non-seriousness indicative of a Scum alignment?

4). Why are you consistently trying to bait others into contradicting themselves? By your own words, players find ways to make other players suspicious of them. If so, why do you choose to consistently place 'traps' and 'bait' for other players to fall for?

---

Blergh... Still under the weather, but I wanted to eek a post out. It's beginning to feel like we're talking amongst ourselves, which strikes me as a bad sign.

And... Bah. Origami is apparently out for the week. That leaves Tiruin, Roo, Cheesecake, and Spruce as players we need more input from.

As for adjusted reads, I'll try to mull things over and have em ready for tomorrow.
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Mephansteras

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Re: 5pm
« Reply #261 on: June 08, 2015, 05:34:49 pm »

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
flabort: birdy51
Peradon: Persus13, TheDarkStar



Day ends ~5pm Pacific Tuesday
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flabort

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #262 on: June 08, 2015, 08:11:52 pm »

1) Day 1 flabort didn't make any reads because he was too busy reading as he went, instead of going back through the thread. Day 2 flabort knows it was dumb of day 1 flabort, but agrees with him that since there was a lot of activity at that time that making and posting a list of reads would have meant falling behind and not keeping up with current events.
2) I see. Yes, where you underlined there is a bit of dissonance; I blame not being able to accurately convey my thoughts through the net. I still have to say yes, I was giving him the benefit of the doubt. Betting on the slim chance, and feeling bad that I had caused such trouble for him and effectively cast a vote on him by causing the trouble.
3) Seriousness is not directly indicative of town or scum alignment. Seriousness/non-seriousness are indicative of how visible a player desires to be, as can be activity levels. Where X is seriousness and Y is activity (on a scale from 0 to 10), and Z is visibility, we get the following equation: Z=|Y-5|+(X-5). Where Z is equal to one or two, they're most likely scum, and where Z is equal to seven to ten, also most likely scum. Between three and five, you have a mix of scum and town. It's harder to sort those ones out. There are some townies in the most-likely-scum area, but very few compared to scum and most of them are completely novices. However, even if that's the case, you should also include other variables when looking at people who fall outside the likely-town range.
Spruce: X=4 Y=9 .... Z=4 (likely town)
OSG: X=4 Y=3 .... Z=1 (Likely scum)
4) Solid evidence. I place traps and bait down for the purpose of collecting solid evidence. Like you said (that I said), it may be easy to become suspicious of someone due to their own behavior. But without evidence to back up your suspicions, they are useless.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2015, 08:14:02 pm by flabort »
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flabort

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #263 on: June 08, 2015, 08:14:31 pm »

Darn it, I forgot the no edits rule.
Mea culpa, I was just correcting my math.
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spruce

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #264 on: June 08, 2015, 08:33:12 pm »

I'm liking Persus for Town on questioning of Peradon and how my questions were answered in #225.

And Jack is saying that from previous games it looks like the “Cult” is a “standard scumteam”. But if the previous use of that in the Supernatural series has always been with a disappearance of their targets, isn't it significant that we're looking instead at beheadings and dagger deaths? Or is the significance in that someone was able to fish out a 'disappeared' from the river?

There seems agreement that the one death is likely a MonsterHunter.

I'm not quite sure what's going on with birdy and origamiscienceguy but they seem straightforward or coordinated in their claims and Persus seems to be vouching for them.
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spruce

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #265 on: June 08, 2015, 08:34:42 pm »

Jack AT
origamiscienceguy (Town Guardsman claim)
flabort (Town Sexton counterclaim) (1) birdy
Persus13
Peradon (2) Persus, flabort, DarkStar
TheDarkStar
roo
spruce
birdy51 (Town Priest claim)
Cheesecake
Epenguin/Tiruin

ToonyMan, Town Fortune Teller, decapitated N1
Deus Asmoth, Town Dreamwalker, slain N1 by dagger
Teneb, Necromancer, threat to Town, killed D1 by Guard bolt, inspected by 2 others


Did I get all the claims right?
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birdy51

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #266 on: June 08, 2015, 09:09:51 pm »

Aye. I believe you have it correct.

Unvote Flabort, I'll back down from my claim of you being scum. I think you answered those questions fairly well. Feel free to pursue that retaliatory case, as I still haven't worked out new reads. If I can make time tomorrow, I'll continue the tradition of submitting reads before End of Day so you'll at least have them to work off of Day 3.

Now, I'm going to throw out an early Extend vote as well. I'm worried about those players that haven't posted yet. Spruce, that doesn't include you. You're off the list of no-post worries.

Are there any questions you might have?
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spruce

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #267 on: June 08, 2015, 09:44:21 pm »

Is there a way to better insure a resurrection attempt goes well? Is it usually a rand thing by the GM? You seemed to indicate it was involved with other factors.
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Jack A T

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #268 on: June 08, 2015, 09:59:56 pm »

Extend.  I've been focusing too much today on getting things into a state where I can make heads or tails of the game and not enough on making heads or tails of it.  Unfortunately, I'm busy with schoolwork right now.  More time would be of use.

spruce: The fact that we're getting partial bodies might be significant.  Still, beheadings do not fit any other scumteam form well (Werewolves are quite messy, Vampires don't kill, and the Dark Magus both kills with clear magic and is too dependent on its converted partner to not want to convert N1).  In addition, we haven't triggered what seems to be a low-detail-kills trigger (at least based on what I remember from my dig): catching a scumteam member sometime before the kill (see Sup 5 N2, Sup 2 N3, in particular), which may explain why we're getting bodies.   By "standard scumteam," what I meant is NK-using instead of conversion-using.

3) Seriousness is not directly indicative of town or scum alignment. Seriousness/non-seriousness are indicative of how visible a player desires to be, as can be activity levels. Where X is seriousness and Y is activity (on a scale from 0 to 10), and Z is visibility, we get the following equation: Z=|Y-5|+(X-5). Where Z is equal to one or two, they're most likely scum, and where Z is equal to seven to ten, also most likely scum. Between three and five, you have a mix of scum and town.
flabort: Hm?  What's a 0 and what's a 6 on the Z scale?  Serious, active players (say, round 8s-10s in X and Y) are likely scum?  Anyone highly visible is probably scum?  Is one end of the spectrum more likely scum than the other?  Please explain in more detail.

Also, now that you've given three definitions of tunneling, please tell me which applies in each use of the term in your read list (your reads of Roo and I) and why that definition applies.

Peradon: Alright.  Now, why did you announce your 2/3rds chance yesterday (probably a more useful question than 'why do these scenarios not apply here')?  I don't recall (I may be wrong) you doing so in previous games.
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Peradon

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #269 on: June 08, 2015, 10:29:29 pm »

Peradon: Alright.  Now, why did you announce your 2/3rds chance yesterday (probably a more useful question than 'why do these scenarios not apply here')?  I don't recall (I may be wrong) you doing so in previous games.
I did so here here and... somewhere else, I think. I cant remember where.

I dont have the time to respond to anything else right now, I just saw that and replied real quick.
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