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Author Topic: Supernatural 8 - Game over! Town Victory  (Read 68816 times)

Persus13

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #225 on: June 05, 2015, 09:11:14 pm »

Peradon
Ok, then do any of you have clues from your night results? Nothing happened to me, so the only stuff I got was in relation to my night action...
Why are you softclaiming here and rolefishing?

Is Necromancer a traditional "serial killer" role here?
Yes, the first time a Necromancer appeared was the previous game and it was a serial killer.

If there were 2 deaths last night doesn't that mean 2 separate kills - Scum, SK, or Vig? If Necro was an SK that would make for 3 night kills at game start, right? That seems like a lot to me in this size game.
Yeah, it looks like a scum kill as well as a vig kill to me.

I agree that beheading looks like Scum. Is "dagger" a traditional kill of a particular alignment here? Any other helpful clues in the GM writeup, compared with earlier games?
It might be an indication of a Monster Hunter, which is the flavor version of a vig in Supernatural games.

It's also possible that one of our dead townies visited a PGO equivelent; which would be a werebear. So no, not that, since it was a dagger. If it were a werebear they'd be torn to shreds.
And given that a Dreamwalker is a passive role and Fortune Tellers never leave their house, impossible anyways.

So the D1 bolt through the head is a Town Guard, but the 2 body inspectors might be 1 Town and 1 something else?
Nope, that bolt to the head was just the lynch flavor. The evil ones in this game tend to go out gloating about how they're going to defeat the town before they get lynched.

Working on a big post right now, but basically I'm doing a full kill flavour analysis.  It will come in a few hours at most.
Look forward to it, you'll probably do a better job than me.
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Peradon

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #226 on: June 05, 2015, 09:25:24 pm »

Peradon
Ok, then do any of you have clues from your night results? Nothing happened to me, so the only stuff I got was in relation to my night action...
Why are you softclaiming here and rolefishing?
Er, I'm not. I'm under the impression that flavor in night actions can give lots of details about what we're up against. I was asking if anyone had any flavor worth noting. Also, how is this a soft-claim? I didnt even claim anything.
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Jack A T

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #227 on: June 05, 2015, 10:01:20 pm »

On Deaths and Flavour:
Toony was almost certainly killed by the primary scumteam, based on cause of death being the same as the D1 opening.  As we know there is no new content in this game, we can look back at previous flavour to figure things out.

There are four prior scumteam types: Vampires (a pure cult seen in Supernaturals 3 and 4.  Does not nightkill), Werewolves (standard scumteam, they shred people and steal and eat bodies), the Dark Magus (single person who does a bunch of stuff and has a one-shot convert.  His converted guy's kill was last to set people on fire with magic, and all powers are magic-based), and the Cult.

What the Cult is is a standard scumteam (though it can have a one-shot converter, it doesn't always).  They use conventional weapons in a ritualistic way.  Prior games (2, 6), their targets disappear and do not show up in the morning.  They are, however, the ones who have decapitated people before (see N3 spoiler, Tiruin).

Toony's and the priest's deaths (particularly Toony) are far too clean for werewolves, don't immediately seem magical, involve bodies moving/being in odd places (Toony being found in a river aside from the head and the priest's corpse missing aside from the head), and involve a prior method used by the Cult.  Beyond that, there's no other anti-town type that kills so cleanly.  I believe we're dealing with a Cult (mafia-type) scumteam.

As for Asmoth's death... Neither Asmoth nor Toony were killed by third parties.  No third stabs or decapitates.
So, what does that leave?  Monster/vampire/whatever hunters, who are vigilantes that can have 'inspects' (such as a vampire hunter inspecting for vampirism in a vampireless game).  They use conventional weapons (crossbows, swords) plus stuff like stakes (for vamp hunters).  Prior flavour involves stabbing targets, staking targets, stabbing targets again...you get the point.  Only other stabbers in the game are Cult, and they run off with the dead (and probably were killing Toony, based on D1 start flavour and prior Cult flavour).

Taking into account the lack of third parties that stab, the vigs that stab, the scumteam being accounted for already, and the lack of much reason for scum to kill the low-activity Asmoth, I think it's safe to say Asmoth was vigged.

Deus Asmoth, what does "rosebud" mean?
OSG: You're certainly paying attention to the game.  Deus's post is a bah post referencing Citizen Kane, because he's dead.

birdy51: What Toony said about the critical examination proposal, plus I feel it would limit my strategic decisions a bit much (couldn't just let things sit and see how people react) and potentially interfere with reading you (such an agreement between us may unduly bias me towards reading you as town, with my examination of your posts being less a search for scumminess than a search for issues to help you deal with).  As for dealing with your tunnel tendencies, I hope people will call you out if you do tunnel.  Do read and examine arguments not directly relevant to your target, as it may help you avoid tunneling.

Also, I came up with three of the most likely scenarios. Can you come up with some other likely ones? If I deemed them worthy, I would include those in my analysis. But if those are accurate scenarios, why isnt it a 2/3rd chance?
Peradon: First: this is basically the classic "Well, it could happen or it could not happen, so it must be a 50% chance" error.  While you don't have much information to base your guess of the chance on, you could have at least taken into account some of what we do know.  There's no reason whatsoever to think every outcome in the sample space is equally likely, and some good reasons (the lower number of scum than town in any game, the historic dubiousness of 'scumslips') not to.  There is information to get you beyond "eh, all outcomes have the same probability" in a Bayesian handling of scumhood chance.  To not take it into account in your analysis, while making it easier to give solid numbers, will lead you to silliness and wrongness.

Second: You can easily come up with more plausible scum scenarios for anyone than town.  There's usually only one really plausible scenario explaining any action as town (the guy's telling the truth and did things to catch scum), though there are a few rare exceptions, and more plausible scenarios for scum.  I can easily pull together a you-style scenario analysis that shows every single player is more likely than not scum, but that would be ridiculous.

Anyway, what do you think of the arguments to lynch Cheesecake now?

Tiruin: Hey, welcome to the game!  Thoughts on it so far?  Thoughts on the major lynch pushes D1?

More later.
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birdy51

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #228 on: June 05, 2015, 10:10:26 pm »

OSG:Why did you visit Birdy last night?
I have one of those roles where I basically just pick a name out of a hat and perform it on them since it has no strategic value until later.

...I disagree entirely with your assumption that your role has no strategic value, and am deeply concerned as to why you would have possibly given it away so easily.

So the D1 bolt through the head is a Town Guard, but the 2 body inspectors might be 1 Town and 1 something else?

The Town Guard seems to have been just an everyday badass normal with a crossbow. Some of the unnamed guards have had to take down baddies in past Supernaturals. As far as I'm concerned, it's a null tell. Honestly, why they don't just shoot us all and be done with it is beyond me. :P

Last night however, one of kills was most definitely the cult. The other is an unknown figure. My guess is a Monster Hunter. Knives seem to be their game.

---

Alright. I'm going to make a few guesses as of this game's makeup. The last game where had 14 Players was Supernatural 5. So, I'm curious to see how things match up.

I'm beginning to slowly flesh out what the Town, Scum, and Other factions are looking like. I know myself to be town, and I have reason so believe that OSG is town as well. I've got nothing to claim either way as to our roles.

We lost two town last night, both of the Investigator archetype. I can't imagine there are any of those left, save for perhaps a sage.

We have a Vigilante, probably a Monster Hunter.

The Necromancer, fills the void of 'other' killers, and I'd be hard pressed to think that there will be another.

These are the roles that are confirmed, resulting in... 5 Town, 1 Other. 6 out of 14. Out of those 14, the presence of a kill-cult makes that number rise to 9 by the virtue of there probably being at least 3 scum. This is discounting the fact that there is another Dark Magusesque character of course.

---

Out of those two, past games have usually average at least 2 Townspersons or possibly a two player Coven chat. If there is a two player coven chat, I recommend that they claim which will bring us up to 11/14 roles that are absolutely known. Coven witches aren't exactly in a whole lot of danger these days.

Now for the last 3. Survivor roles have been popular in the past for the third. I would not be surprised if we have a Wererat among us. The little cheesemongerer. A Devil would be another fine role to have wiggled it's way in. Basically, anything that isn't hyper kill kill could have made it in as an "Other" role. There has got to be at least one more floating about. I'm sure of it.

The other two Town Roles I can only speculate on. Given the Rot theme, I wouldn't be surprised if the Town had a Sexton. But that leaves at least one role as a wild card. Could basically anyone really. That said, even if someone claims a Town Role, we can't trust them right off the bat. We'd need proof of some kind and I guess I'm exempt to this either.

---

Anyways. Here are my thoughts in a concise summary.

I believe we have 9 Townies. Two are dead. One is me. The other is probably OSG.

We have 3 Scum. They have the ability to Kill us at Night.

There are two Other roles. One was the Serial Killer Necromancer, who was thankfully offed Day 1. The other 'other' is currently an unknown. Jack A T just posted a handy list, so go check it out as well.
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birdy51

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #229 on: June 05, 2015, 10:13:06 pm »

birdy51: What Toony said about the critical examination proposal, plus I feel it would limit my strategic decisions a bit much (couldn't just let things sit and see how people react) and potentially interfere with reading you (such an agreement between us may unduly bias me towards reading you as town, with my examination of your posts being less a search for scumminess than a search for issues to help you deal with).  As for dealing with your tunnel tendencies, I hope people will call you out if you do tunnel.  Do read and examine arguments not directly relevant to your target, as it may help you avoid tunneling.

I shall do what I can then.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #230 on: June 06, 2015, 01:04:34 am »

I am now EPenguin! :D
I will give this a reread! :-X
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origamiscienceguy

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #231 on: June 06, 2015, 09:54:29 am »

Birdy, can you please go into more detail about why you think I'm town?
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Mephansteras

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #232 on: June 06, 2015, 10:45:54 am »

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birdy51

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #233 on: June 06, 2015, 11:50:34 am »

Birdy, can you please go into more detail about why you think I'm town?

Ugh... You are content with tearing down every wall of subtlety aren't you?

You're a Town Guardsmen, a role that has not been given to scum once in the past seven games of Supernatural. Converted yes, given out from the start, no. Therefore, I can only assume that this Supernatural continues the pattern. As such, it's only logical to assume you are Town. Unless of course you're a Witch or perhaps a Thief. Both roles keep an eye on a character, so you could have seen that I had a guest easily enough by virtue of an armored Guardsmen keeping vigil outside my door.

---

While I'm making claims... I'll make another. Last night, me being roleblocked was no issue, as I have no business with a Necromancer. I am a Town Priest, good and true. I spent last night praying so that my attempt to revive a member of the Town successful. This is also why I refused to join in on the Teneb Lynch. If he had flipped Town, it would have meant I had a hand in the death of a good man. Which, I believe that would have tainted any of my future resurrections.

Supernatural Mafia 4 cites an example of such an occurrence. After the Town Priest mislynched another Town Priest, his subsequent resurrection of said Priest went horribly wrong and he came back as a Demon. Other occasions point to any death causing issues, as in Supernatural 5 where a successful lynch of a Werewolf resulted in a Vampire being spawned. As such, I don't want to take any chances with my planned reviving of either Toony or Deus Asnoth tonight.

Now, before one asks why I'm claiming, I'll tell you. As a Priest, I am by nature unreliable. The Priest Role has been Scum several times in the past and has resulted in Scum or murderous 3rd Parties being spawned. I have no clue whether I'm going to succeed or not. However, regardless of what happens, this places pressure upon the Scum Team. If I succeed, I will bring back an Investigative member of the Town who does not have to leave their house. A willing Origami can watch over that person and that person would be able to work for the Town in perfect safety, as neither the Dreamwalker nor the Fortune Teller have to leave their homes to do their good work.

As such, the scum would be forced to either kill me, Origami, and eventually the person I revive. But there is a problem with that for the Scum. If they target either me or Origami, they won't be hitting the Vigilante, who will have time the time necessary to kill off at least hopefully one or more of their number. Assuming they don't off themselves and that there isn't a Knight, they have a 3/8 chance of killing a member of the scum team. Those aren't bad odds.

This is also why I called for a Coven Claim. If there is a Coven in this game, their dual claim would lower the threshold of targets, to 3/6 or a 1/2 chance for the Vigilante to kill a member of the scum team. Granted, this also makes it easier for the scum team to find the Vigilante. I'll leave it up to the Coven itself if it exists to decide what alternative is better in their minds.

Basically, that is my assessment of the situation as of now. Priesthood is not an excuse to not scum hunt, so I need to get back down to business.

---

Roo: Where are you my lovely? Why did you kill Toonyman?

Tiruin: Welcome! What do you make of the current proceedings? Are you here to continue weaving your legendary path of bloodshed and terror?

Spruce: You're still not going to pull the wool over my eyes. What's your take on the situation?

Flabort: I want your reads immediately.
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #234 on: June 06, 2015, 12:44:35 pm »

Everyone: Since some people seem dead set on revealing part if not all of their and everyone else's roles, what are your thoughts on a mass claim? Personally I think it's too early since we may face a Cult, but I want to know your thoughts.

Peradon
Ok, then do any of you have clues from your night results? Nothing happened to me, so the only stuff I got was in relation to my night action...
Why are you softclaiming here and rolefishing?
Er, I'm not. I'm under the impression that flavor in night actions can give lots of details about what we're up against. I was asking if anyone had any flavor worth noting. Also, how is this a soft-claim? I didnt even claim anything.
Yes, and flavor in night actions usually requires that the person in question claim. You claimed you had a night action. There are plenty of roles who don't have night actions, Townspeople, Dreamwalkers, and Knights being three of them.
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birdy51

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #235 on: June 06, 2015, 12:50:59 pm »

Persus13: I'm against a full claim of all roles beyond the possibility of the Coven. They are the only pair of roles that I would be comfortable in believing their sincerity. The rest would only be putting their necks needlessly on the line.
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origamiscienceguy

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #236 on: June 06, 2015, 01:21:51 pm »

I am a guardsman. I guess I will keep protecting Birdy ...

or will I ...

Let the WIFOM begin, scum! BLAAAHHGGHHRRNNTSFAH
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birdy51

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #237 on: June 06, 2015, 01:28:21 pm »

...But... I'd prefer to actually be able to leave the house. ;.;
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origamiscienceguy

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #238 on: June 06, 2015, 01:35:26 pm »

...But... I'd prefer to actually be able to leave the house. ;.;
Why? You said yourself that you ability doesn't require you to leave your house?
Last night, me being roleblocked was no issue,
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural 8 - Day 2 Dreams of Blood
« Reply #239 on: June 06, 2015, 01:41:06 pm »

Supernatural Mafia 4 cites an example of such an occurrence. After the Town Priest mislynched another Town Priest, his subsequent resurrection of said Priest went horribly wrong and he came back as a Demon. Other occasions point to any death causing issues, as in Supernatural 5 where a successful lynch of a Werewolf resulted in a Vampire being spawned. As such, I don't want to take any chances with my planned reviving of either Toony or Deus Asnoth tonight.
I'm completely certain of this, but I believe that the outcome of a resurrection is determined by the piety of the priest at game start.

Jim's word on the topic.
Priest can resurrect a dead player, and they have a piety value that is hidden from them. Pious priests bring a dead target back to life to his original role, while impious priests revive the target as a demon, which has a kill and wins when everybody else is dead.

There's no way to know which is which until the following night, when either somebody dies or nothing happens. There are also some roles that get vague hints about whether it was a normal or demonic resurrection during the night it occurs (according to memory of previous Supernaturals), but the Priest himself is unaware what kind of resurrection it is.

This is my first time playing Supernatural, and though I watched the last two the specifics may be a bit lost on me.
This may have changed however, but I'm pretty sure this still applies with some changes.

...But... I'd prefer to actually be able to leave the house. ;.;
Why? You said yourself that you ability doesn't require you to leave your house?
Last night, me being roleblocked was no issue,
Did you see anyone get revived last night? Priest have a 1-shot revive.
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