On Deaths and Flavour:
*Demon: SK.
Shreds people.
*Devil: Makes deals with people. Offers them power, and must get some number to accept. Mass kill at that point.
*Ghoul: SK. Eats bodies (to make kills unstoppable).
*Wererat: Survivor. No powers.
*Necromancer: SK. Must first make zombie from corpse, then can send them to kill. Cannot kill N1. Also is dead, and I doubt there's another.
*Guardian Angel: Goal is to prevent another player from dying. Can use one of an assortment of protections on that player each night. No kill.
*Werebear: Odd one, as it can also be town. As town, kills visitors. As third party, is SK who can kill a target or any visitors. Only public kill flavour seen so far was as town, and was just "yeah, he died fighting a werewolf who he killed." Private flavour sent to the fighters was
much like werewolf kills: messy, bitey, bloody.
*Lone Vampire: Survivor. Only seen before in a resurrection gone wrong. Half-killer who blocks when half-killing. Must feed. Cannot possibly kill someone in one night.
Toony was almost certainly killed by the primary scumteam, based on cause of death being the same as the D1 opening. As we know
there is no new content in this game, we can look back at previous flavour to figure things out.
There are four prior scumteam types: Vampires (a pure cult seen in Supernaturals 3 and 4. Does not nightkill), Werewolves (standard scumteam,
they shred people and
steal and eat bodies), the Dark Magus (single person who
does a bunch of stuff and has a one-shot convert. His converted guy's kill was last to set people on fire with magic, and all powers are magic-based), and the Cult.
What the Cult is is a standard scumteam (though it can have a one-shot converter, it doesn't always). They use conventional weapons in a ritualistic way. Prior games (2, 6), their targets disappear and do not show up in the morning. They are, however,
the ones who have decapitated people before (see N3 spoiler, Tiruin).
Toony's and the priest's deaths (particularly Toony) are far too clean for werewolves, don't immediately seem magical, involve bodies moving/being in odd places (Toony being found in a river aside from the head and the priest's corpse missing aside from the head), and involve a prior method used by the Cult. Beyond that, there's no other anti-town type that kills so cleanly.
I believe we're dealing with a Cult (mafia-type) scumteam.As for Asmoth's death... Neither Asmoth nor Toony were killed by third parties. No third stabs or decapitates.
So, what does that leave? Monster/vampire/whatever hunters, who are vigilantes that can have 'inspects' (such as
a vampire hunter inspecting for vampirism in a vampireless game). They use conventional weapons (crossbows, swords) plus stuff like stakes (for vamp hunters). Prior flavour involves stabbing targets, staking targets, stabbing targets again...you get the point. Only other stabbers in the game are Cult, and they run off with the dead (and probably were killing Toony, based on D1 start flavour and prior Cult flavour).
Taking into account the lack of third parties that stab, the vigs that stab, the scumteam being accounted for already, and the lack of much reason for scum to kill the low-activity Asmoth,
I think it's safe to say Asmoth was vigged.
Deus Asmoth, what does "rosebud" mean?
OSG: You're certainly paying attention to the game. Deus's post is a bah post referencing Citizen Kane, because he's dead.
birdy51: What Toony said about the critical examination proposal, plus I feel it would limit my strategic decisions a bit much (couldn't just let things sit and see how people react) and potentially interfere with reading you (such an agreement between us may unduly bias me towards reading you as town, with my examination of your posts being less a search for scumminess than a search for issues to help you deal with). As for dealing with your tunnel tendencies, I hope people will call you out if you do tunnel. Do read and examine arguments not directly relevant to your target, as it may help you avoid tunneling.
Also, I came up with three of the most likely scenarios. Can you come up with some other likely ones? If I deemed them worthy, I would include those in my analysis. But if those are accurate scenarios, why isnt it a 2/3rd chance?
Peradon: First: this is basically the classic "Well, it could happen or it could not happen, so it must be a 50% chance" error. While you don't have much information to base your guess of the chance on, you could have at least taken into account some of what we do know. There's no reason whatsoever to think every outcome in the sample space is equally likely, and some good reasons (the lower number of scum than town in any game, the historic dubiousness of 'scumslips') not to. There is information to get you beyond "eh, all outcomes have the same probability" in a Bayesian handling of scumhood chance. To not take it into account in your analysis, while making it easier to give solid numbers, will lead you to silliness and wrongness.
Second: You can easily come up with more plausible scum scenarios for anyone than town. There's usually only one really plausible scenario explaining any action as town (the guy's telling the truth and did things to catch scum), though there are a few rare exceptions, and more plausible scenarios for scum. I can easily pull together a you-style scenario analysis that shows every single player is more likely than not scum, but that would be ridiculous.
Anyway, what do you think of the arguments to lynch Cheesecake now?
Tiruin: Hey, welcome to the game! Thoughts on it so far? Thoughts on the major lynch pushes D1?
More later.
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Topic: Supernatural 8 - Game over! Town Victory (Read 69258 times)